A practitioner’s view of the future of futures studies

This article looks at the future of futures studies (FS) over the next 20 years from a practitioner’s viewpoint. It begins with favorable developments for FS in the organizational context. The main body covers how FS can take advantage of these more favorable developments. It then anticipates some key methodological and professional challenges and how FS might meet them. It concludes with a few comments about the prospects for a self-actualized FS.The single biggest challenge for FS over the next generation from my practitioner’s point-of-view is to get beyond the cyclicality of interest in the future and get FS firmly integrated into the organizational context. Our experience to date convinces me that we have earned “the right to practice,” and we must now focus the next few decades on sinking roots “inside”. The good news is that there are several developments suggesting that this is not just a preferable but also a probable future.     

Effect of Internationalization on the Cost Efficiency of Taiwan’s Banks

Abstract:

We focus on the effect of internationalization on the cost efficiency of banks by studying Taiwan as a sample for developing countries. We find that (1) increasing overseas businesses and foreign exchange deposits increases cost efficiency; (2) expanding offshore banking units increases bank efficiency; and (3) the profitability of a bank’s overseas branch is not a critical factor behind the differences in cost efficiency across both financial holding company (FHC) banks and non-financial holding company (non-FHC) banks. Finally, our metafrontier empirical results illustrate that FHC banks in Taiwan show better technical performance in cost control than non-FHC banks.     

Application of Heston’s Model to the Chinese Stock Market

This article applies Heston’s (1993) stochastic volatility model to the Chinese stock market indices and subsequently assesses its pricing performance. A two-step estimation procedure is adopted to calibrate Heston’s model. First, we find that the option price is affected by both the moneyness and the maturity. Second, Heston’s model is more likely to overprice options, whereas the BS model tends to underestimate options. Finally, Heston’s model, by employing volatility as a random process, significantly improves the pricing accuracy compared to the BS model. Therefore, Heston’s model is tractable to analyze the Chinese stock market indices, and there is volatility risk that must not be overlooked in the Chinese stock market.     

On the Effect of Bank of Japan’s Outright Purchase on the JGB Yield Curve

This paper examines an impact of Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s outright purchase on the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve. Particularly, we develop a simple state space model, which incorporates new factors regarding the BOJ’s announcement for its outright purchase and the current market outstanding with standard level and spread factors. Based on the model with a filtering method, we also implement an empirical analysis with time series of the BOJ’s announcement records during 2014/10/22–2017/8/3 in the quantitative–qualitative easing period to estimate the sensitivities of interest rates against the changes in the market expectation for the net supply with each sector of JGB. We expect the current work provides a basis for considering quantitative effects on the term structure by BOJ’s policy changes such as termination or significant reduction of the BOJ’s outright purchase. For instance, our scenario analysis shows substantial increase in the 30 year yield with widening of 20–30 year spread.     

Taking notice of risk culture – the regulator’s approach

Following the financial crisis and a series of mis-selling and ‘rigging’ scandals in the financial services, organisational culture, and particularly the risk culture of organisations, has come to be regarded as a key issue for both financial firms and their regulators This paper considers the extent to which regulatory published notices, ‘Final Notices’ (FNs), relating to breaches of the regulatory Handbook, are able to provide lessons, or pointers, in the development of ‘appropriate’ cultures. By undertaking a qualitative content analysis of all the FNs in 2012, we examine the extent to which FNs draw attention to issues of culture, and to the regulator’s analysis of the drivers of culture published as part of its treating customers fairly (TCF) initiative. The analysis finds that, although not easy to extract, there are important learning points in FNs relating to organisational culture, and in particular to the factors driving behaviours and outcomes that are signs of poor culture. This paper suggests that, whilst it may not be for a regulator to dictate firms’ culture, it could do much more to make use of the content of FNs as a learning tool for firms; particularly in the context of its cultural framework for TCF. This would support the ‘outcomes-based’ approach being espoused by the UK’s regulators.     

The economics of the welfare state in today’s world

This article is concerned both with the substantive policy issue of the implications of the European welfare state in a global setting and with the way in which economists analyse the welfare state. Economics has made a major contribution to our understanding of the welfare state through the provision of formal models. These have allowed us to see the implications of social protection for countries increasingly open to international competition. These models, however, leave out essential elements, and the standard Heckscher–Ohlin 2-good, 2-factor, 2-country assumptions impose too tight a straitjacket. We do not observe full factor price equalisation. The paper considers how we might relax this straitjacket to incorporate elements that are important in the public debate, while preserving tractability. The resulting 3×3×3 model is used to investigate the impact of globalisation on the welfare state, contrasting Europe and the US. The first version of this paper was written while I was visiting the Economic Research Department of the Bank of Italy. I am most grateful to the Research Department for their hospitality, but make clear that the contents of the paper are solely my responsibility. The paper was presented at the April 2006 Netspar Conference in the Hague. I thank the discussants, André de Jong and Cees Oudshoorn, and the conference participants, for their helpful comments. The revision has benefited from the valuable suggestions of the referees and editors, and the final version has been greatly improved as a result of a conversation with Peter Neary. None of the above are to be held responsible for the remaining shortcomings of the paper.     

Framing the UK’s counter-terrorism policy within the context of a wicked problem

Terrorist attacks can be seen as the ultimate wicked problem. After 9/11, terrorists moved from so-called ‘spectacular’ events to relatively low-intensity attacks against individuals and groups. The emergence of what has become known as the ‘home-grown’ terrorist has added a further dimension to the ‘wicked’ nature of the problem. This paper considers the UK’s CONTEST and PREVENT strategies as a policy response to the threats from terrorism and the impact that the policies themselves can have on the radicalization of individuals. The author highlights some of the limitations of the PREVENT strand of the overall strategy and the constraints that are imposed on government policies by failing to take a holistic perspective on the nature of the problem.     

The measurement of harmonization in the form and content of the auditor’s report in the European Union

This study attempts to determine the degree of harmonization in the form and content of the auditor’s report in the European Union. To accomplish this goal, audit reports from 1995 annual reports of the largest industrial companies in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom are analyzed. The analysis uses the basic elements of the auditor’s report listed in the International Standard on Auditing, “The Auditor’s Report on Financial Statements” as the control. Comparability is tested using the chi-square statistic which tests for equality of the proportions of the various elements in the auditor’s report across the Member States. The results reveal that harmonization exists in three of the five elements in the auditor report relating to form (appropriate title, the dating of the report and the listing of the location of the auditor’s office). Harmonization does not exist for the remaining two elements related to form, nor does it exist for any of elements related to content.     

A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody’s bank financial strength ratings

In 1995 Moody’s Investors Services inaugurated a new rating service, bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs), that assesses the safety and soundness of banks in over 50 countries. Our study sets out to do some preliminary investigations of this new type of credit rating. We develop logistic regression models to help explain or predict BFSRs. Using bank-specific accounting and financial data we are able to correctly classify or predict BFSRs. These fundamental variables cover the dimensions of risk, loan provision ratios, and profitability. Of the three, loan provisions is the most important factor, followed by risk, and then profitability. Country risk ratings do not appear to be significant explanators of BFSRs. We also find that traditional debt ratings accurately classify BFSRs and this raises the question of whether BFSRs add incremental information. The paper also highlights future directions for our research. One such area is to examine how well BFSRs predict banking crises such as the credit problems currently affecting Asia and Latin America.     

Consequences of adopting an expanded auditor’s report in the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom has recently required an expanded auditor’s report for large public companies. We investigate whether this requirement is associated with an increase in the decision usefulness of the auditor’s report and whether it has indirect consequences on audit fees and quality. Our analyses cover four years surrounding the changes, including companies that transitioned to the new regime and companies that continued issuing the previous report’s format. We do not find evidence that the regulatory change significantly affected investors’ reaction to the release of auditors’ reports, audit fees, or audit quality. Furthermore, we do not find that variation in the expanded reports’ content has affected these outcomes. Although companies with long reports pay comparatively higher fees, the mere increase in disclosure does not affect audit fees or quality. Collectively, our evidence is consistent with the expanded auditor’s report providing little incremental information to investors.     

A nonparametric approach to measuring the sensitivity of an asset’s return to the market

In the market model the return on an asset is modeled as a linear function of the return on a market index with slope parameter beta. The coefficient beta is often used as a measure of the sensitivity of the asset’s return to the market and to measure the component of the variance of the return that is explained by the market. However, both of these interpretations require the additional assumption that the error term in the market model has mean 0 conditional on the return on the market index, an assumption that is often difficult to verify in practice. In this paper, a nonparametric version of the market model is proposed that does not require such an assumption. This nonparametric model replaces the beta coefficient of the market model with a “beta curve” describing the relationship between the asset’s return and that of the market locally near a given value of the market return. The proposed model is applied to stock returns, as well as to returns on mutual funds. Corresponding tests of the market model are given and it is shown that the nonparametric model often provides an improvement over the standard parametric market model.     

Beck’s creative challenge to class analysis: from the rejection of class to the discovery of risk-class

Abstract

Beck’s rejection of the relevance of class in Risk Society has had an immense impact on both the fields of class analysis and the sociology of risk. In outlining a novel theory of the systemic importance of risks as side-effects and in making bold claims about how the production and distribution of risks are undermining class inequalities, Beck posed a highly influential challenge to both risk and class studies. Beck’s impact on class analysis however has not been mainly due to widespread acceptance of his original claims about risk and class; rather, it has been research building upon Beck’s work so as to critically depart from his conclusions through which Beck has made his contributions to the study of class. In seeking to identify the impact of Beck’s work on the study of risk and class, this paper, firstly, outlines Beck’s challenge to class analysis. It then proceeds to identify three key areas of research whose development was motivated by their critical engagement with Beck’s work: the literature on risk and the continuity of class; the critical theory of the individualization of class inequality; and the political economy of risk-class. This paper then concludes by critically evaluating Beck’s more recent, partial acknowledgement of risk inequalities by arguing that there are significant limitations in his account of class, but that his work continues to offer a valuable opportunity to inspire future work on class and inequality.     

China and Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Partnership at the Start of the Twenty-First Century

Over the past decade, cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in the oil and gas sector has developed significantly. For China, security of its energy supply is a key strategic objective. This paper analyzes the evolution of Sino-Kazakh oil and gas relations, assesses their long-term prospects, and explores how Chinese demand for oil and gas could divert Kazakhstan’s hydrocarbon resources from other energy markets. The netback approach has been used to assess the prices that China will need to offer other producers in Kazakhstan. Sino-Kazakh energy and economic cooperation could create a good basis for free economic zones and development of beneficial ties for both countries.     

The Post-Issue Performance of Initial Public Offering Firms in the People’s Republic of China

This study seeks to identify issues related to the process of corporatization of the State-owned enterprises (SEO) and to examine the post-issue performance of initial public offering (IPO) firms in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). We have discussed in this paper various incentives and potential opportunities for earnings management during the process of corporatization. These include compliance with listing requirements for profitability, right-issue offerings, issue price and the carving out of assets in financial packaging. Based on a sample of 582 A-share IPO firms, we reject the hypothesis that the performance of IPO firms does not decline subsequent to the IPO year. To see if our results depend on the choice of performance measure, we have conducted the tests using different performance measures. Overall, our findings indicate that performance of the IPO firms in the PRC is not sustainable even after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and that there is evidence leading to possible earnings management.     

Pricing vulnerable European options when the option’s payoff can increase the risk of financial distress

We extend the results of Johnson and Stulz (Johnson, H., Stulz, R., 1987. Journal of Finance 42, 267–280) and Klein (Klein, P.C., 1996. Journal of Banking and Finance 20, 1211–1229) for valuing European options subject to the risk of financial distress on the part of the option writer. Our model incorporates a default boundary which depends on the potential liability of the written option as in Johnson and Stulz (1987), and also on the option writer’s other liabilities as in Klein (1996). As in both of these papers, the pay-out ratio in the event of financial distress is linked to the assets of the option writer, and the correlation between the assets of the option writer and the asset underlying the option is explicitly modeled. Although no analytical solution is available, we illustrate the importance of this approach through examples, which are evaluated numerically. We also develop an approximate analytical solution, which works well in most situations.     

Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s

This paper examines the reliability of financial analysts’ consensus earnings forecasts in the 1990s. Analysts are often accused of having fuelled the stock market boom with exaggerated evaluations of firms’ prospects. However, this criticism primarily refers to the analysts’ buy recommendations rather than earnings forecasts. Although biases in earnings forecasts have been reported since the 1980s, a systematic study capturing the period of ‘irrational exuberance’ until 2000 on the German stock market has not yet been published. Our data set consists of DAX100 firms, leaving out the peculiarities of forecasting earnings (or rather losses) of young technology firms. To evaluate the information content of analysts’ forecasts, we confront them with five alternative forecasting models. The empirical results reveal that analysts’ forecasts were too optimistic throughout the entire sample period. However, contrary to the increase in stock prices, the optimistic bias has declined over time. If the bias is removed, the analysts’ consensus forecasts significantly outperform all other models considered. Thus, the forecasts seem to be informative with respect to earnings differences, even if the market level of earnings is optimistically overstated.     

On the relationship between the number of a broker’s real estate listings and transaction outcomes

This paper documents that sellers who employ brokerage offices that list a large number of properties (“active brokerages”) obtain higher selling prices, smaller negotiated discounts from the corresponding list prices, and shorter times on the market for their listed properties. Sellers who employ active brokerages list their properties at prices that are closer to our hedonic model’s predicted prices. Interestingly, properties that are listed at discounts relative to their predicted prices are snapped up more quickly only if they are associated with brokerages that list a relatively small number of properties. In addition, properties listed by active brokerages are less likely to be listed “as is” and are more likely to have their defects repaired prior to being listed. Moreover, because the efficacy of brokerage services varies across brokerage offices, the results also suggest that the use of an indicator variable for the use of brokerage services is not sufficient to capture the complete impact of the use of a real estate broker on transaction outcomes. In addition, the Appendix discusses the concern for potential endogeneities between the number of brokerage listings and transaction outcomes. It documents that the Durban–Wu–Hausman test indicates that exogeneity cannot be rejected.     

On the Legislative Investigation and Analysis of Criminal defendant’s Access to the Right to counsel

我国法律规定了被告人享有辩护权,并且这种权利的行使可以得到律师的帮助,律师在刑事诉讼中的职责就是依据事实和法律为委托人进行辩护,维护其合法权益。但是从现行制度下被告人和辩护律师所享有的权利来考察,很难说被告人真正地、充分地享有辩护权,因为在刑事诉讼中被告人和辩护律师所享有的权利十分有限,辩护律师在刑事诉讼中也不享有完整的辩护权,同时司法现况与被告人获得律师帮助权的基本要求差距甚大。本文对我国被告人获得律师帮助权制度及其运行进行了考察,并对相关问题进行了分析。     

So rapid the Chinese government’s response is

This is horrible news and my condolences go out to the people of China. Once again nature has shown it is mightier than us all and all humanity should unite     

Interpreting the European Union’s IFRS Endorsement Criteria: The Case of IFRS 9

EU Regulation requires that any international accounting standards (International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS) and interpretations (IFRIC) pronounced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) meet three sets of criteria before they become binding for EU-based companies: a ‘true and fair view’ criterion, a list of qualitative criteria, and a ‘European public good’ criterion. During the endorsement process, EU institutions evaluate each standard or interpretation’s compliance with these three criteria. Nevertheless, despite plenty of past endorsement decisions, there is still disagreement about a unanimous interpretation of the criteria in the literature. In this study, we interpret all three criteria against the background of European accounting law and academic accounting research. Then, the paper illustrates for the case of the new IFRS 9 standard on accounting for financial instruments how these criteria can be applied in the endorsement practice. We conclude that the standard cannot reasonably be rejected on grounds of the IAS Regulation. We also explain that the vagueness of the endorsement criteria and the inherent discretion in the eventual endorsement decision help maintain the EU’s political influence on the IASB’s standard-setting ex ante.