Morbidity and mortality from road traffic crashes in children in Metro West,City of Cape Town – 2014

The road traffic crash injury burden significantly impacts the lives of South African children. This study aimed to assess the fatal and non-fatal pattern of road traffic crash injury of children under 13 years old from Metro West, City of Cape Town, from 1 January until 31 December 2014. The data were stratified by age, sex and mechanism of road traffic crash. The overall mortality rate was 8.7 per 100 000 population and pedestrians contributed the most to this burden (72.5%). There were more male children involved in a road traffic crash (p?=?0.0001). The greatest proportion of fatal and non-fatal road traffic crash injuries was observed in children aged 5–9 years. Fractures contributed to the greatest rate of years lived with disability (3.0 years of life lived with disability per 100 000). Our study found that the burden of road traffic crashes primarily affects male pedestrians aged 5–9 years old.     

Time to prioritise safe walking

This study draws on information from two recently published documents on pedestrian safety and global status of road safety to draw attention to the need to prioritize safe walking in planning and policy at local, national and international levels. The study shows that each year, more than 270 000 pedestrians lose their lives on the world's roads. The study argues that this situation need not persist because proven pedestrian safety interventions exist but do not attract the merit they deserve in many locations. The study further shows that the key risk factors for pedestrian road traffic injury such as vehicle speed, alcohol use by drivers and pedestrians, lack of infrastructure facilities for pedestrians and inadequate visibility of pedestrians are fairly well documented. The study concludes that pedestrian collisions, like all road traffic crashes, should not be accepted as inevitable because they are, in fact, both predictable and preventable. While stressing that reduction or elimination of risks faced by pedestrians is an important and achievable policy goal, the study emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive, holistic approach that includes engineering, enforcement and education measures.     

Cost analysis of road traffic crashes in China

Abstract

Fatalities and injuries resulting from road traffic crashes is always a serious problem. The overall economic losses caused by road traffic crashes are beyond imagination. Including the economic cost of property damage, productivity loss, medical cost, travel delay time cost, legal cost and insurance cost, the total economic cost of traffic crashes in China in 2017 is calculated as 490.1 billion yuan (72.6 billion USD 2017), which is equivalent to 0.60% of the GDP. The cost of productivity loss accounts for the highest proportion of total economic cost, which is 72%. The second is the travel delay cost, accounting for 12% insurance cost, property damage cost and medical cost are followed. The more serious the injury, the higher the unit economic cost. The unit cost of a crash that caused only property damage is 11,274 yuan. The unit cost of a minor injured crash is 20,223 yuan. The highest unit economic cost is the unit cost of a fatal crash, which is 3,181,394 yuan. This study provides important insights into the cost-benefit analysis of China's road safety policies.     

Road traffic crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries in Arkhangelsk,Russia in 2005–2010

The study investigated trends in traffic crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries in Arkhangelsk, Russia in 2005–2010. Data were obtained from the road police. Negative binomial regression with time regressor was used to investigate trends in monthly incidence rates (IRs) of crashes, fatalities, and non-fatal injuries. During the six-year period, the police registered 4955 crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries, which resulted in 217 fatalities and 5964 non-fatal injury cases. The IR of crashes with fatal and non-fatal injuries per total population showed no evident change, while the IR per increasing total number of motor vehicles decreased on average by 0.6% per month. Pedestrian crashes constituted 51.8% of studied crashes, and pedestrians constituted 54.6% of fatalities and 44.5% of non-fatal injuries. The IRs of pedestrian crashes and non-fatal pedestrian injuries per total population decreased on average by 0.3% per month, and these were the major trends in the data.     

Underreporting,crash severity and fault assignment of minor crashes in China – a study based on self-reported surveys

Unreported minor crashes have importance as a surrogate for more serious crashes that require infrastructure, education, and enforcement strategies; and they still inflict damages. To study factors that influence underreporting, cause, and severity of minor crashes; a survey was performed in Kunming and Beijing to collect self-reported personal characteristics and crash history data of the three major urban road users in China: automobile drivers, bicycle riders and electric bike (e-bike) riders. Underreporting rates of automobile to automobile, automobile to non-motorized vehicle, and non-motorized vehicle to non-motorized vehicle crashes are 56%, 77% and 94%, respectively. Minor crashes with higher reported injury severity levels are more likely to be reported. E-bike riders without a driver's license are more likely to cause crashes. Licensing and education could be an effective way to reduce their crashes. The party that is not at fault in a crash is more likely to sustain high level of injury.     

Child motor vehicle occupant and pedestrian casualties before and after enactment of Child Restraint Seats Legislation in Japan

Problem. Prevention of injuries to child passengers is a significant public health priority, as motor vehicle-related injuries remain a leading cause of death for children in Japan. The purpose of compulsory child restraint seats legislation in April 2000 was to reduce the number of child passengers killed or injured in motor vehicle crashes.

Methods. The objectives of this preliminary evaluation are to measure the effectiveness, benefits and usage of safety seats for child passengers aged 1–5 years by analysing the child casualty data for the period of 1997–2002. Population and vehicle miles travelled based injury and fatality rates were used to compare before and after legislation trends in child casualties.

Results. Despite overall increases in the use of child restraint seats (as observed by different national surveys), overall casualty rates in motor vehicle occupants in the 1–5 year age group did not change (fatalities and serious injuries) or even increased (minor injuries).

Conclusions. Casualties among restrained children have not decreased since the law came to effect in the year 2000, perhaps because of incorrect usage of the seats. Given that exposure to crash environments is increasing, traffic safety advocates and public health community need to be aware of the importance of child restraints as a means of reducing the likelihood of injury. It is necessary to implement effective community-based child safety seat campaigns to disseminate the information on appropriate restraint use and to increase efforts to enforce the existing legislation.     

A machine-learning method for improving crash injury severity analysis: a case study of work zone crashes in Cairo,Egypt

Abstract

The quality of vehicular collision data is crucial for studying the relationship between injury severity and collision factors. Misclassified injury severity data in the crash dataset, however, may cause inaccurate parameter estimates and consequently lead to biased conclusions and poorly designed countermeasures. This is particularly true for imbalanced data where the number of samples in one class far outnumber the other. To improve the classification performance of the injury severity, the paper presents a robust noise filtering technique to deal with the mislabels in the imbalanced crash dataset using the advanced machine learning algorithms. We examine the state-of-the-art filtering algorithms, including Iterative Noise Filtering based on the Fusion of Classifiers (INFFC), Iterative Partitioning Filter (IPF), and Saturation Filter (SatF). In the case study of Cairo (Egypt), the empirical results show that: (1) the mislabels in crash data significantly influence the injury severity predictions, and (2) the proposed M-IPF filter outperforms its counterparts in terms of the effectiveness and efficiency in eliminating the mislabels in crash data. The test results demonstrate the efficacy of the M-IPF in handling the data noise and mitigating the impacts thereof.     

收入不平等对经济增长的负面影响机制——近二十年文献综述

近年来,国内外学者运用各种方法探讨了收入不平等与经济增长的关系。大部分研究结论显示,收入差距对经济增长存在间接的负面影响,两者之间存在一个多因素的传导过程,包括人力资本积累机制、政治经济决策机制、社会冲突机制、需求传导机制以及其他传导机制。总的来看,这些研究加深了对于两者关系性质和相互影响的认识,但研究结论的分歧和研究方法的局限性仍然存在,有必要对两者关系进行更深入的研究。     

Injury prevention priority setting based on the National Injury Surveillance data in Korea

For the reduction of injury burden, injury prevention efforts are essential. However, financial, material and human resources are far from sufficient, and this situation necessitates setting priorities for effective injury prevention. Hence, the aim of this study is to prioritise 13 injury mechanisms for prevention of injury using four injury burden criteria. National death certificate, hospital discharge data and emergency data during 2004 were used. According to the 13 most frequent injury mechanisms (ICD-10), mortality priority score, years of potential life lost (YPLL) priority score, morbidity priority score and hospital charge priority score were calculated. Injury mechanisms which were ranked fourth or higher on at least three of the four criteria scores were arranged in rank orders. Traffic crashes ranked highest on all four of the priority criteria for injury prevention followed by fall and poisoning in second and third positions, respectively. Categorised by age groups, in 0–19 year olds, traffic crashes, suffocation and drowning; in 20–59 years, traffic crashes, suffocation and poisoning; and in 60 and over, traffic crashes and fall were shown to be significant injury prevention priority in rank orders. Injury prevention priorities identified from this study could be useful in strategically allocating limited resources and implementing more focused prevention policies in Korea.     

较差质量数据下的返回弹道计算及对落点影响的分析

针对某老式卫星返回时雷达跟踪数据曾发生的测量异常及质量较差等情况,为解决此类数据在返回弹道及落点计算中出现的实际困难以及给出应对措施,基于工程实际情况给出了三种不同建模类型下的弹道计算方法——当前统计解耦扩展卡尔曼滤波（EKF）、动力学建模无迹卡尔曼滤波（UKF）、多项式滑窗最小二乘估计算法,并应用该次质量较差的实际观测数据进行了算法应用效果分析与落点计算情况对比,对计算中的经验及教训进行了总结。研究结果表明,所给出的三种算法在面对较差质量数据时性能差异较大,在工程实际应用中可考虑将多种算法互为参考。研究结果及其经验教训对卫星返回弹道及落点的实时估计的工程实施有一定的参考价值。     

“刘易斯拐点”引发革命性变革

刘易斯创建的二元经济结构理论是建立在以自由竞争为基础的市场经济之上的,而我国现阶段的市场经济还称不上是完善的市场经济,只能称为政府主导型的市场经济,市场还没有发挥配置资源的基础性作用,刘易斯二元经济结构理论因此被扭曲为城乡二元经济结构体制,并由此而派生了农民工劳动力市场和低附加值劳动密集型产业的大发展以及出口导向型的发展模式。我国农村劳动力无限供给的“人口红利”时代即将结束,“刘易斯拐点”即将到来,我国经济社会发展方式转变的“倒逼机制”越来越强化。     

Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury

Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a worksystem and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a worksystem. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coalmine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across worksystems.     

浅谈房地产业对我国社会经济的影响

最近几年,房地产业经历了几番起伏,它对于我国GDP的增长,发挥了巨大的促进作用,这一点是毋庸置疑的.与此同时,是否应该继续维持房地产业在我国社会经济中的重要地位,成为了大家关注的焦点.本文将以我国房地产业的现状为出发点,结合房地产在我国社会经济发展中的重要性,简要谈谈房地产业对我国社会经济的影响.     

对法律移植的再思考——以辩诉交易制度的移植为例

法律移植作为一种创新性的法律活动,其目的在于改变一国的法律,使其实现法律的现代化。辩诉交易制度本身的利弊权衡仍存广泛争议。我国目前不具备移植辩诉交易制度的现实基础,如果强行移植辩诉交易,将有可能对我国现行法制产生冲击。