区域贸易安排的“双边服务贸易效应”经验研究——基于扩展引力模型的2000-2009年面板数据分析

文章基于2000-2009年双边服务贸易面板数据,并运用扩展的引力模型,对区域贸易安排的"服务贸易效应"展开了经验研究。研究发现:(1)整体上看,"区域贸易安排"对双边服务贸易产生了显著的促进作用,但"区域货物贸易安排"对服务贸易的影响缺乏统计显著性。(2)"区域服务贸易安排"对双边服务贸易流量产生了显著的正向影响。"南北型"区域服务贸易安排的"服务贸易效应"超过了"南南型"和"北北型",而且非对称性的"南北型"区域服务贸易安排对双边服务贸易的影响最显著,将双边服务出口流量提升了73.71%-76.81%。(3)"区域服务贸易安排"对服务贸易的影响大致需2年时间逐渐释放,表明区域服务贸易安排的"渐入期"要小于区域货物贸易安排(约10年)。     

Barriers to Global Free Trade through Bilateral Agreements

This paper examines the formation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) in the context of a dynamic noncooperative bargaining game with a random proposer. We show that global free trade (a grand coalition) does not necessarily occur unless transfer payments among countries are allowed. When transfer payments are possible, bilateral FTAs always achieve global free trade, but the ex‐ante and ex‐post inequalities of social welfare among countries are larger than those when all countries are independent because of the strategic bargaining behavior.     

US Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade

We explore the geo‐strategic determinants of bilateral trade flows between the USA and the rest of the world. We develop a three‐party model of security and trade patterns and use data on military assistance and troop deployments over the 1950–2009 period to validate its predictions. We find that security assistance has significant, positive impacts on the shares of bilateral trade between the USA and the recipient country, results that are robust to issues of reverse causality and hold across different sectors.     

区域贸易协定对经济全球化是推还是阻?——来自中国对外贸易的证据

区域经济合作对经济全球化的作用如何,一直存在争议。本文基于引力模型,以中国及其贸易伙伴作为研究对象,运用2000-2010年142个国家的面板数据检验区域经济合作对中国参与经济全球化的影响。结果显示:经济合作组织对中国对外贸易整体上呈促进作用;而WTO对中国对外贸易的促进力度相对最小,甚至对中国的进口起阻碍作用;区域经济合作凭借着其对国际贸易更强的推动力,正逐渐成为经济全球化的"绊脚石"。     

发展中国家如何分享服务贸易自由化的利益

2 0世纪 80年代中后期出现的世界服务贸易自由化趋势 ,一方面 ,推动了发展中国家经济效益的进一步提高 ;另一方面 ,也严重影响了发展中国家的经济安全。发展中国家应当根据自身的特点 ,循序渐进地融入服务贸易自由化进程 ,在壮大传统优势服务项目的基础上 ,重点扶植技术密集型服务贸易的发展。     

中美双边贸易平衡问题再探——基于产品竞争力视角的分析

文章通过运用贸易竞争力指数和显示性比较优势指数,从类上(2001～2006年)和章上(2003～2006年)不同层次、中方与美方不同的统计口径,对比分析中美双边贸易产品的竞争力状况,并考察了在双边贸易中处于"很低"或"较低"竞争力的美国产品在世界贸易中的竞争力状况。文章还采用格鲁贝-劳埃德指数研究了美国在世界贸易中也处于"弱"竞争力状态的35章产品的产业内贸易水平。在此分析的基础上指出,美国对华贸易逆差的主要原因及实现双边贸易平衡的途径。     

GATT,Preferential/Regional Trading Blocs and Agricultural Trade*

Agricultural trade impasses have again frustrated the GATT process. Interest in preferential/regional trading blocs is increasing. the paper probes the theoretical and empirical consequences of preferential arrangements instead of multilateral liberalization. It concludes that in a second-best world preferential arrangements could either improve or decrease global welfare. For agricultural trade, previous experience suggests that in regional groupings such as the EC trade diversion exceeded trade creation. This results from trade distorting domestic policies. Prospects for liberalization of agricultural trade under either GATT or preferential arrangements are limited. the consequences for small agricultural exporters are not positive.     

Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate

A country can restrict her imports by imposing tariffs and stimulating her exports by providing subsidies. The same goal could be achieved through devaluation. One policy question that we face is the time it takes for either policy to affect the trade flows. We investigate here the relative responsiveness of the trade flows to a change in relative prices versus to a change in exchange rate. After estimating an error-correction version of import and export demand functions for nine industrial countries, unlike earlier studies that employed non-stationary data, our findings indicate that there is no specific answer and trade flows of different countries react differently.     

金融因素对我国地区国际贸易发展差异的影响

地区开放度的非均衡分布是造成我国地区经济差距不断扩大的一个很重要的因素。以金融视角研究地区开放度对区域对外贸易的作用机理，并通过面板回归模型的分析，可以发现：金融深化有利于地区对外贸易的发展；我国部分地区出口的快速发展在很大程度上得益于非正式金融。     

对外贸易对区域经济增长贡献率的比较分析——以安徽省和江苏省1997—2007年时序数据为例

以安徽省和江苏省1997-2007年的统计数据为样本,通过计量经济学软件进行回归分析,比较两省的总体经济发展水平、对外贸易对经济增长的贡献率以及对外贸易发展水平。结果表明,江苏省与安徽省GDP的差距由1997年的2.5倍扩大到2007年的3.5倍,进出口贸易额的差距由1997年的7.66倍扩大到2007年的12.79倍;安徽省FDI对GDP的带动作用远大于江苏省,而全社会固定资产投资对GDP的带动作用略小于江苏省;安徽省的出口依存度等外贸发展水平测度指标增长缓慢,在有些年份甚至出现了负增长,而江苏省的外贸发展水平测度指标在逐年上升。     

双边营商环境、契约依赖和贸易持续期*--基于中国企业微观数据的实证研究

在国际贸易中，贸易双方所在地的契约环境和贸易产品的契约特征是影响贸易关系的重要因素。文章基于异质性贸易理论框架，分别从产品行业特征的内因角度和地区契约环境的外因角度研究了契约因素如何通过影响风险来作用于贸易持续期，并使用 H S8分位数层面的中国海关统计数据库、世界银行营商环境调查数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据，从“企业－产品－目的地”视角进行了 COX 比例风险分析。研究表明：（1）地理契约特征对贸易持续期存在着显著影响，贸易双方所在地的契约环境优势对贸易持续期有着显著的促进作用；（2）地理契约特征对贸易持续期的影响因贸易产品的异质性契约特征而存在差异，良好的地区契约环境能够在更大的边际效应上降低违约风险，并能够在高契约依赖度的产品贸易中得到更好地发挥；（3）虽然我国的贸易关系数量在增加，但退出率却在逐年上升。文章从贸易持续期的角度来研究贸易平稳性，这对于我国今后如何提升对外贸易质量有着重要意义。     

Cointegration Approach to Estimating Bilateral Trade Elasticities Between U.S. and Her Trading Partners

Almost all previous authors who estimated the trade elasticities relied upon aggregate trade data. To avoid the aggregation bias, this paper provides estimates of trade elasticities using bilateral data between the United States and her six largest trading partners. Application of cointegration analysis reveals that in many cases, bilateral trade elasticities are large enough to justify real depreciation of the dollar as a mean of improving U.S. trade balance.[F14]     

Comparing Some Benefits and Costs from Eliminating the U.S. Trade Deficit with Low Wage Countries

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper presents estimates of the consumers’ surplus that would be lost if manufactured goods currently being imported to the U.S. from low...     

Regional Trade Agreements and Cross‐border Lobbying: Empirical Evidence from the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement Negotiations

This paper documents participation of special interest groups in negotiations of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement. Using data on the tariff reduction schedules mandated by the agreement, it shows that industries represented by strong lobby groups were faced with more favorable tariff reduction paths in both countries: phase‐out periods were longer at home and shorter in the partner country. This result provides evidence on the involvement of industry lobbying in negotiation of regional trade agreements and suggests that countries negotiating trade agreements are responsive to the interests of lobbying groups from across the border. Both results provide important implications for the political economy theory of trade agreements.     

从区域经济整合发展海峡两岸经贸共同市场

通过对当前海峡两岸经贸形势的分析,无论从理论层面、现实基础还是经济效应来看. "两岸共同市场"都是两岸经贸合作发展的最佳区域整合模式.在全球区域经济整合背景下,推进两岸经贸共同市场的机制建设具有重要意义.     

Quality of Imports Relative to Exports,and the Transmission of Sustained Growth through the Terms of Trade

Abstract

This paper shows that an economy can import sustained growth, in spite of not possessing mechanisms to absorb foreign knowledge. To do that, it develops a two-country model of exogenous growth with investment-specific technological change. In autarky, one country sustainably grows while the other economy remains stagnant. In the trade situation, the quality-adjusted terms of trade become increasingly favourable to the second economy, which results in the transmission of growth. The continuous improvement in the quality of imported capital goods relative to exported consumption goods is the reason why this occurs. Moreover, this mechanism leads to convergence in per capita income if trade involves incomplete specialisation.     

Family Behavior: Implications for Health Benefits Transfer from Adults to Children

An approach to transfer adult health benefit estimates to children is developed from a consensus model of family behavior in which parents employ protective goods to reduce a health risk that they and their children face. The model is estimated using national survey data on parents’ perceptions of skin cancer risks and their actual use of sun protection products in order to test the equilibrium condition that the parent’s marginal rate of substitution between equal percentage reductions in her child’s and her own risk equates to unity. Empirical results are consistent with this prediction. This finding suggests that the consensus model provides a useful basis to transfer adult health benefit estimates to children.