CAN INDONESIA DECENTRALISE SUCCESSFULLY? PLANS,PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

Indonesia is engaged in an unprecedented social and economic experiment. Responsibility for much government expenditure is being decentralised, largely to local (district) rather than to provincial governments. If this process is successful, the world's most centralised large country could become one of its most decentralised. This paper considers the issues arising as preparations for decentralisation are finalised, and as the socialisation of its plans and practices is considered by the central government, the People's Representative Council, the decentralised units of government, and the public. These issues were identified partly through interviews with local government officials. They include policy and administrative matters yet to be resolved, such as local budgeting, financial management and auditing practices, personnel decentralisation, local taxation, borrowing by local governments, and the match between revenues and expenditures. A major theme is the importance of a continuing national and local discussion on the goals and processes of decentralisation.     

Decentralisation in Indonesia

This paper attempts to assess the extent of decentralisation efforts and their impact on various dimensions of the development process. We find relatively little ‘real’ decentralisation (devolution): local governments have little tax autonomy and central priorities tightly constrain most funding from the centre. Indeed, increased revenue flows serve as a disincentive to modest local tax efforts, reduce the relative importance of locally controlled funds and thus retard real decentralisation. Central transfers for health, education and infrastructure have nonetheless significantly improved social and economic indicators. Greater local control over funds is found to lead to more expenditure on the social sectors (and within them on priority areas), and to increase spending on small scale locally oriented infrastructure. More decentralisation thus offers the potential for increased allocations to social and economic priorities, enhancing efficiency and equity within regions; but the promotion of national standards and equity across regions requires central government action.     

Village Governance,Community Life,and the 2014 Village Law in Indonesia

In January 2014, the government of Indonesia issued Law 6/2014 on Villages, primarily to address weaknesses in the decentralisation paradigm by improving governance arrangements and shifting resources to a level of government less captured by special interests. Using longitudinal data from 40 Indonesian villages in the three Local Level Institutions studies, fielded in 1996, 2001, and 2012, we investigate the effects that prior policy has had on village life and identify the likely implications of the 2014 law on village governance. We focus on shifts in the capacities of and opportunities for local governments to increase their responsiveness to community needs, as well as consider the constraints on these governments. We suggest that there is potential for the law to increase government responsiveness—through a combination of strong financial management systems, new national institutional arrangements, and empowered citizens who can apply pressure on village governments to work in the interests of communities—but that substantial risks and obstacles remain.     

地方政府共建“一带一路”政策偏好及特征

为明晰地方政府共建“一带一路”政策偏好及特征,构建政策工具、政策目标和政策客体三维政策分析框架,运用内容分析法对2013—2021年31个省市颁布的164份共建“一带一路”政策文本进行量化分析。研究发现：地方政府形成了以“政府为主,企业、社会、国际组织共同参与”的多元协同政策支持体系,政策工具组合呈现“重供给、轻需求”非均衡特征且在健康、绿色、数字、创新等新领域政策工具使用不足,政策目标聚焦贸易畅通、民心相通和设施联通,在资金融通和政策沟通的政策设计内容较少。未来,地方政府应进一步优化政策工具组合,强化多维目标下的政策设计,完善多元客体参与的政策支撑体系。     

Unity in diversity? The creation of new local governments in a decentralising Indonesia

This paper evaluates the proliferation of local governments concurrent with Indo-nesia's 2001 decentralisation. Largely static for decades under the New Order, the number of municipalities (kota) and districts (kabupaten) has increased by half, from 292 before decentralisation to 434 in 2003. Most of the increase is off-Java. This represents a fundamental change in Indonesia's subnational administrative, political and fiscal landscape. We present a new dataset that elucidates the characteristics of these new kota and kabupaten, and review political, fiscal and economic incentives for creating new jurisdictions. We find that geographic dispersion, political and ethnic diversity, natural resource wealth and scope for bureaucratic rent seeking all influence the likelihood of regional splits. Since jurisdictional changes will affect local governance and service delivery, we stress the importance of providing an effective institutional framework for the creation – or future amalgamation – of local governments as part of a strategic approach to consolidating Indonesia's decentralisation.     

District Assemblies in a fix: the perils of the politics of capacity in the political and administrative reforms in Malawi

This article appraises the prospects of District Assemblies institutionalising local governance structures and processes that are responsive, democratic and capable of improving the livelihoods of the poor. District Assemblies have been established against the backdrop of a radically reconstituted policy, governance and administrative framework following the transition from one-party rule to multiparty democracy in Malawi in May 1994. The underlying argument of this paper is that the potential success of the District Assemblies is effectively hampered by widespread self-seeking tendencies and orientations among various stakeholders in grassroots development, strategically veiled as lack of capacity on the part of the decentralised planning framework. Unless these seemingly idiosyncratic tendencies are subordinated to the underlying noble cause of the decentralisation policy and institutional reforms, the trinity of good governance, development and poverty reduction in the evolving structures and processes of local government will remain a virtually unattainable ideal.     

房地产调控困局的政府间博弈研究——基于委托-代理视角的分析

在委托—代理视角下,由于分税制改革所带来的地方财力不足的问题,导致地方政府与中央政府的政策目标的不一致。地方政府可能会采取追求自身利益最大化的行为,致使中央政府的政策目标被扭曲。本文基于政府间的静态条件下纳什均衡博弈和委托—代理视角分析房地产调控难的主要原因,以期对于政府的房地产调控失效问题做出解释。     

“省管县”体制下地方政府间税权配置优化问题研究——基于国际比较的分析

本文以当前"省管县"体制改革为背景,在中央和地方政府既定的分税制框架内,研究省以下政府间税权配置问题。通过对发达国家地方政府间税权配置分析和经验借鉴,确立我国地方政府间税权配置的原则,提出我国地方政府间税权配置优化的基本思路。     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。     

Capacity building challenges in Malawi's local government reform programme

Since the advent of multiparty democracy in June 1994, the Malawi government has embarked on a local government reform programme involving political and administrative decentralisation to promote democratic governance, local development and effective public service delivery. However, the wholesale adoption of the decentralisation process tends to ignore a critical debate on capacity challenges in local government. The main argument is that the success of the reform programme is contingent upon the availability of adequate capacity in local government institutions. Therefore, this article examines the critical contingencies, namely administrative, technical and economic capacity, in the context of local government reform and decentralisation in Malawi. The major conclusion is that capacity problems, including the lack of appropriately trained personnel and a shortage of funds, seriously hamper effective public service delivery. Thus, there is a need for implementing comprehensive capacity building programmes, including training and development, and financial management strategies to attain the desired objectives.     

Internet Adoption and Financial Development in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria and Kenya

Financial development is influenced by the dynamics of multiple factors which have remained insufficiently explored up to date. In view of this, an attempt is made in this paper to investigate the impact of internet adoption on financial development in sub‐Saharan Africa, using Nigeria and Kenya as case studies. The dynamic ordinary least squares and vector error correction mechanism methods were employed in the study which revealed that the internet, complemented by financial openness, exerted a significant positive impact on financial development in the period 2000–16. The null hypothesis which states that the internet does not encourage financial development is therefore rejected. It follows that the level of financial development in both countries, and indeed most countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, could be enhanced by adopting appropriate policies that encourage more inclusive use of the internet. The policy recommendations of this study therefore include (i) relaxing the stringent requirements for licensing internet operators in order to make more services available for financial transactions, (ii) integrating internet technology into the national infrastructure framework in order to sustain its application, (iii) fostering local skills and expertise that will be maintaining internet infrastructure and (iv) providing a legal framework that protects personal information and ensures responsible usage of internet.     

VILLAGE GOVERNMENT AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA: THE NEW DEMOCRATIC FRAMEWORK

The political reforms that began in Indonesia in 1998 have created new opportunities for a revised relationship between state and community, replacing the New Order's centralistic and uniform framework with local-level institutions that are strong and responsive. This paper presents the new legal framework for the democratisation of local-level politics and village institutions. Representative councils have been elected in all Indonesian villages, and the village head is no longer the sole authority in the community. Village governments are provided with far-reaching autonomy and do not need the approval of higher authorities to take decisions and implement policies. However, decentralisation and democratisation are necessary but not sufficient preconditions for developing the countryside and alleviating poverty. An active government and civil society engagement must ensure that regulations are not distorted during implementation, and that ordinary people are included in public policy making and local governance.     

全球流动性风险和对策

借鉴国际清算银行的测量框架,本文认为,私人流动性本质上指融资意愿,具有很强的传染性和跨境传递特征;其周期波动与金融危机密切相关,与主要国际货币发行国政策取向相关,而新兴市场是全球流动性的被动接受者;有效减缓全球流动性周期波动幅度、降低跨境流动性对宏观经济和金融体系的冲击、及时提供救助以避免系统性破产,是全球流动性管理的核心目标;实现这些目标,需要一个涵盖国别、双边、区域和全球在内的应对框架和全球金融安全网;全球流动性机制建设为中国参与国际金融治理提供了契机,也为国内各项政策协调提出了挑战。     

Effect of promotion pressure and financial burden on investment in public–private partnership infrastructure projects in China

By identifying the political motives of officials and local governments, this study aims to provide a new political economic analysis framework for understanding China's incentives for investing in public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects. Chinese urban panel data for the period 2013–17 were used to examine the mechanisms of promotion pressure and financial burden in relation to investments in PPP infrastructure projects. Based on our findings, the following policy recommendations are proposed: standardise the behaviour of local government officials in promoting PPP projects, establish a lifelong accountability mechanism for PPP project performance, establish a mechanism for local government debt risk assessment and prevention, and avoid the risk of local debt arising from over‐investment in PPP infrastructure projects. Moreover, a match should be formed between local economic infrastructure planning and investment plans to avoid over‐ or under‐investment.     

A competitive growth of a small midle-income country in the eurozone is far to be assured

The dichotomy of the increasing diversity of eurozone member countries and the institutional “one-size-fits-all” setting has exposed the deficiencies of the institutional economic architecture of the eurozone in the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2010. It has particularly exposed the weaknesses of middle-income countries within this framework. Greece, Ireland, and Portugal are experiencing outright financial crises. This article’s thesis is that small middle-income countries (MICs) in the eurozone face two general macroeconomic problems: (1) there is inherent macroeconomic instability; and (2) there is a problem of “competitiveness and convergence.” Small MICs’ ability to grow and catch up is demand-based and largely export-driven. Price competitiveness is an important factor of competitive growth within the eurozone. A national fiscal policy is crucial to countries’ ability to form and implement national policies for economic stability and competitive growth, which would enable a durable, above-average growth rate. Calls for a fiscal union along with the monetary union may therefore backfire.     

Energy conservation — what price a local initiative?

With the collapse of oil prices, shortages and long term increases in energy prices seem far away, and conservation is the last thing on our minds. Thus, national energy supply monopolies encourage the use rather than conservation of energy, whilst the alleged prospect of a long-term increase in electricity demand is used to justify investment in nuclear power. This article examines how decentralisation and a greater local involvement in national energy policy could overcome this contradiction. It also finds that the conservation strategies developed, after the oil crisis of the 1970's, in several other countries have, surprisingly, no British equivalent.     

借鉴国际经验 合理划分税权

文章对我国税权划分的现状进行了分析,指出税收管理权限的划分应与各级政府的事权相适应,在对各国税权划分类型进行比较的基础上,借鉴国际经验,提出应进一步完善分税制财政管理体制,确保地方政府享有相对独立的税权,并提出了调整税权划分的具体构想。     

小微企业金融扶持政策落实情况的调查——来自乌鲁木齐市的样本

本文就乌鲁木齐市小微企业金融扶持政策落实情况进行了调查,调查发现,乌鲁木齐市小微企业仍然存在融资难、融资渠道少、融资成本高的问题,虽然部分企业享受了金融扶持政策,但是金融扶持政策的落实仍然存在困难和障碍,如政策兼容性不足;政策制定者和执行者存在立场差异;政策门槛高;政策宣传力度不够等。因此,要充分利用互联网金融为小微企业提供金融服务;政府和银行应降低门槛,更新贷款方式;搭建小微企业综合信息共享平台;发展小微企业园区,提供小微企业园区金融服务功能;通过分税制改革增强地方政府财力,提高其支持小微企业的积极性。     

Recovery from financial crises in peripheral economies, 1870–1913

What drives recoveries after financial crises? I address this question for the 1870–1913 “first era of globalization,” focusing on whether trade policy changes or positive movements in commodity prices played a bigger role in stimulating output growth after financial crises in peripheral economies. At this time before governments had modern fiscal and monetary policy tools to use while responding to crises protectionism was one of the few national-level policy options available for shaping economic activity. Improving terms of trade is another major factor that could influence output growth in the commodity-exporting countries included in this analysis. While previous studies of this period have looked at longer-run associations between these explanatory variables and economic growth, I focus on the aftermath of crises, and find that tariff rate increases had a positive impact on GDP per capita growth, while positive terms of trade changes did not have a significant effect on output growth. This suggests that governments played a substantial role in shaping post-crisis recoveries during this period.     

地方政府与外商直接投资规模:一个三方博弈的解释

随着中国利用外商直接投资规模的不断扩大,有关FDI规模是否适度的问题就值得关注。本文利用缺口理论,通过对中央政府、地方政府和外商直接投资者三方的博弈分析,探讨了FDI规模问题,以此解释了中国改革开放以来利用FDI规模增长的内在机制,并得出FDI规模问题实质是中央政府和地方政府间关系的结论。相应地,解决FDI规模问题就需要中央政府清理整顿地方政府与中央政策不一致的招商优惠政策。