The Economic Agenda: a View from Europe

Over the course of the 1990s, the US outperformed Europe not only in output growth, but also in productivity and employment generation, thereby stopping Europe's decade‐long period of catching up. The author shows that the growth difference originates at least partly from insufficient investment by Europe into the determinants of long‐run growth (research, education, and the diffusion of new technologies). Northern European countries with comprehensive welfare systems performed better than the big economies in continental Europe, owing to their timely realization that these costly systems require the highest possible levels of productivity and fast growth. The European agenda for the next decade is based on this analysis. It stresses the importance of accelerating economic growth, primarily through investment into growth drivers. Labor market reforms are necessary, as is the redefinition of macroeconomic policy, a regional policy adequate for European enlargement, and reforms in the public sector. Distributional and ecological issues are also on the agenda, even though Europe outperforms the US in these fields, as is reflective of European preferences.     

欧债危机成因与前景的制度分析

希腊等欧元区国家的主权债务危机可以说是欧洲区域一体化建设中的独特现象,其折射的是欧元区所存在的一个结构性问题：奉行单一货币政策和各国分散的财政政策,集中暴露出了欧洲货币一体化与欧洲福利资本主义的不相容、以及统一货币运行所要求的财政紧缩与欧元成员国经济增长和福利制度之间的矛盾与冲突;欧元不会就此瓦解,但欧债问题的最终解决困难重重;欧元的未来取决于自由与市场的回归欧洲,取决于欧盟的制度完善与欧式福利资本主义改革的成功与否。     

On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*

Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.     

Balancing budget through tax increases or expenditure cuts: is it neutral?

Fiscal adjustment currently ranks at the top in the economic policy agenda of many OECD countries, and not only those European countries aiming to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria. Recently, Alesina and Perotti argued that successful cases of fiscal adjustment resulted from cutting expenditures, while those focusing on tax increases were unsuccessful. The paper, using a bivariate VECM representation for the joint government revenue–government expenditure dynamics for five of the main OECD countries, provides two contributions to this issue. First, it proposes and performs a neutrality test of the alternative adjustment strategies (through revenue or expenditures), second it characterizes the departure from neutrality in the three countries where the neutrality hypothesis is rejected. The conclusion, prevailing for these three countries, is that adjustment through taxes not only is inefficient, but even results in a perverse effect with induced extra expenditures which more than offset the increase in government revenue.     

Can regional policy in a federation improve economic efficiency?

In the European Union and in many federal and non-federal countries, the central government pays subsidies to poor regions. These subsidies are often seen as a redistributive measure which comes at the cost of an efficiency loss. This paper develops an economic rationale for regional policy based on economic efficiency. We consider a model of a federation consisting of a rich and a poor region. The economy is characterized by imperfect competition in goods markets and unemployment. Firms initially produce in the rich region but may relocate their production to the poor region. We show that a subsidy on investment in the poor region unambiguously increases welfare if labour markets are competitive. If there is unemployment in both regions, the case for regional subsidies is weaker.     

Tax Havens,Growth, and Welfare

This paper develops an endogenous growth model featuring tax havens, and uses it to examine how the existence of tax havens affects the economic growth rate and social welfare in high‐tax countries. We show that the presence of tax havens generates two conflicting channels in determining the growth effect. First, the public investment effect states that tax havens may erode tax revenues and in turn decrease the government's infrastructure expenditure, thereby reducing growth. Second, the tax planning effect of tax havens reduces marginal cost of capital and hence encourages capital accumulation so as to spur economic growth. The overall growth effect is ambiguous and is determined by the extent of these two effects. The welfare analysis shows that tax havens are more likely to be welfare‐enhancing if the government expenditure share in production is low, or the initial income tax rate is high. Moreover, the welfare‐maximizing income tax rate is lower than the growth‐maximizing income tax rate if tax havens are present.     

我国通胀与经济增长放缓福利 成本的比较研究

经济理论和实践经验通常认为我国经济增长放缓的福利成本远高于通货膨胀的福利成本,因而“保增长”的重要性远高于“防通胀”。本文认为这一判断已经不再适用于我国当前情况,核心原因是当前家庭的财产积累水平较以往有了大幅度提高,通胀将通过财产再分配效应造成严重的社会福利损失。经过计算发现：在各组参数设定下,5%的通胀和经济增速下滑一个百分点所造成的社会总福利成本（对消费的补偿比例）分别平均是18%和59%;通胀福利成本与增长放缓福利成本之比平均为329%,相比之下,在不考虑财产再分配效应的计算方法中,该比例仅为约16%。这说明在中长期“保增长”和“防通胀”都具有重要的社会福利意义,因此宏观调控应该将二者都作为重要的政策目标。     

Transition to FDI openness: Reconciling theory and evidence

Empirical studies quantifying the economic effects of increased foreign direct investment (FDI) have not provided conclusive evidence that they are positive, as theory predicts. This paper shows that the lack of empirical evidence is consistent with theory if countries are in transition to FDI openness. Anticipated welfare gains lead to temporary declines in domestic investment and employment. Also, growth measures miss some intangible FDI, which is expensed from company profits. The reconciliation of theory and evidence is accomplished with a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model parameterized with data from a sample of 104 countries during 1980–2005. Although no systematic benefits of FDI openness are found, the model demonstrates that the eventual gains in growth and welfare can be huge, especially for small countries.     

Welfare‐reducing Domestic Cost Reduction*

We show that cost reduction by a domestic firm may reduce domestic welfare if it changes a foreign firm’s production strategy from foreign direct investment to export. Domestic cost reduction can be welfare reducing when the domestic market is sufficiently small and domestic firm’s marginal cost of production is higher than the foreign firm’s marginal cost of production under foreign direct investment, which is a usual feature of trade between developed and developing countries. So, developing countries with small domestic markets need competent competition policies when encouraging domestic innovation and also trying to attract foreign direct investment.     

Fiscal adjustments and economic performing: a comparative study

The empirical relationship among fiscal contractions, permanent improvement in public finances and short-run economic performance is examined using a sample of 14 European countries over the last three decades. The actual experience of policy-making has taught that only the adjustments that relied heavily on primary expenditure cuts and were implemented over a relatively long time span were able to achieve a long lasting reduction of public liabilities. Indeed, during these consolidations, tax increase amounted to a small fraction of the total adjustment. Furthermore, though they unfolded over a longer period with respect to the unsuccessful ones, the overall budget cut was not larger. As regards the macroeconomic impact, successful episodes tended to be associated with improved economic performance. During the adjustment period and in the following two years, the economies experienced strong consumption and investment growth, reduced unemployment, better international competitiveness and falling interest rates. This empirical evidence is here interpreted via the theory known as expectation view of fiscal policy.     

Getting help from abroad: The macroeconomics of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in low‐income countries

Infrastructure financing needs in most low‐income countries are substantial, but funding for such needs is only partly covered by national governments and aid donors. This paper introduces foreign direct investment (FDI) through public–private partnerships as a source of infrastructure financing in low‐income countries. A two‐sector open economy model is developed to assess the macroeconomic performance of FDI in infrastructure. With efficient foreign investment, an increase in revenue‐generating infrastructure investment boosts productivity and spurs private investment while stabilizing domestic prices. A direct comparison between infrastructure financed by domestic versus foreign investment shows that foreign investment creates higher output growth and welfare gains and is preferable to domestically sourced investment, irrespective of the underlying financing instrument the domestic economy is employing. FDI in non‐revenue‐generating infrastructure is also analyzed and discussed.     

Tariff,Growth, and Welfare

We develop a two‐country (Home and Foreign) by two‐good (consumption good and investment good) by one factor (capital) endogenous growth model with international knowledge spillover to study the relationship between an import tariff and economic growth and welfare. First, unlike the past literature, we do not need to make an assumption such that the growth rates between countries are identical in a balanced growth path (BGP). Second, we show that there exists a unique and saddle‐point BGP with both countries being incompletely specialized. Third, a higher import tariff on the consumption good in the domestic country may boost (reduce) the rate of economic growth when the foreign (domestic) country has an absolute advantage in the investment good. Finally, a rise in the tariff rate by one country may improve world welfare under some parameter spaces.     

Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth

We contrast the effects of a transfer tied to investment in public infrastructure from a traditional pure transfer. The latter has no growth or dynamic consequences; it is always welfare improving, the gains increasing with the stock of government debt and the benefits of debt reduction. A tied transfer generates dynamic adjustments, as public capital is accumulated in the recipient economy. Its long-run growth and welfare effects depend upon the initial stock of infrastructure, as well as co-financing arrangements. These contrasts also apply to temporary transfers, particularly the transitional dynamics. A temporary pure transfer has only modest short-run growth effects and leads to a permanent deterioration of the current account, while a productive transfer has significant impacts on short-run growth, leading to permanent improvements in key economic variables including the current account.     

EU regional policy and tax competition

The European Union (EU) provides coordination and financing of trans-European transport infrastructures, i.e. roads and railways, which link the EU member states and reduce the cost of transport and mobility. This raises the question of whether EU involvement in this area is justified by inefficiencies of national infrastructure policies. Moreover, an often expressed concern is that policies enhancing mobility may boost tax competition. We analyze these questions using a model where countries compete for the location of profitable firms. We show that a coordination of investment in transport cost reducing infrastructures within union countries enhances welfare and mitigates tax competition. In contrast, with regard to union-periphery infrastructure, the union has an interest in a coordinated reduction of investment expenditures. Here, the effects on tax competition are ambiguous. Our results provide a rationale for EU-level regional policy that supports the development of intra-union infrastructure.     

欧洲福利国家危机的政治经济学分析

20世纪70年代以来,福利国家的危机日益加剧,凯恩斯主义在欧洲各国不同程度地被新自由主义所取代.新自由主义从意识形态、全球化与竞争力、不平等、经济与社会政策、公共财政等方面对福利国家发起了攻击,其目的 不是取消福利国家,而是改变福利国家的内涵,使之服务于新自由主义,其核心利益关切点不再是社会大众,而是金融资本.在这一背...     

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

How big a boost to long run growth can countries expect from the ICT revolution? I use the results of growth accounting and the insights from a two-sector growth model to answer this question. A two-sector rather than a one-sector model is required because of the very rapid rate at which the prices of ICT products have fallen in the past and are expected to fall in the future. According to the two-sector model, the main boost to growth comes from ICT use, not ICT production. Even a country with zero ICT production can benefit via improving terms of trade. I quantify this effect for 15 European and 4 non-European countries, using the EU KLEMS database. The ICT intensity of production (the ICT income share) is much lower in many European countries than it is in the United States or Sweden. Nevertheless the contribution to long run growth stemming from even the current levels of ICT intensity is substantial: about half a per cent per annum on average in these 19 countries. If ICT intensity reached the same level as currently in the U.S. or Sweden, this would add a further 0.2 percentage points per annum to long run growth.     

Growth,mobility and social progress

We evaluate social progress on the basis of panel data on individual incomes by comparing the value of social welfare in the observed panel data to its value in a situation where individuals receive their first period income in each period. We derive necessary conditions for the welfare gain to be positive, and show how it can be decomposed in an effect of economic growth, a mobility effect and a cost due to aversion to time fluctuations given individuals’ ranks in the income distribution. The mobility effect, generated by reranking in the income distribution has two components: a cost due to time fluctuations in incomes and a benefit, due to equalization in time averaged incomes. We illustrate the analysis using CNEF data for Australia, Korea, Germany, Russia, Switzerland and the US. Our results indicate that the largest component of social progress is the equalization of time averaged income, induced by reranking. In countries with high growth (Australia, Korea and Russia), the growth effect is larger than the mobility effect, but in countries with low growth (Germany, Switzerland and the US), the opposite holds true. The poor performance of the US is explained by the large costs of income fluctuations and the way economic growth is distributed.     

The Impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme on Multiple Measures of Economic Performance

The European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has introduced a price for carbon, thus generating an additional cost for companies that are regulated by the scheme. The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the effect of the EU ETS on firm-level economic performance. There is a growing body of empirical literature that investigates the effects of the EU ETS on firm economic performance, with mixed results. Differently from the previous literature, we test the effect of the EU ETS on a larger set of indicators of economic performance: employment, average wages, turnover, value added, markup, investment, labour productivity, total factor productivity and ROI. Our results, based on a large panel of European firms, provide a broad picture of the economic impact of the EU ETS in its first and second phases of implementation. Contrarily to the expectations, the EU ETS did not affect economic performance negatively. Results suggest that firms have reacted to the EU ETS by passing-through costs to their customers on the one hand and improving labour productivity on the other hand.     

中国经济周期的社会福利成本

文章通过建立动态一般均衡模型,测算出中国经济周期的社会福利成本,并在此基础上给出了政策建议。结果显示,与非洲的发展中国家不同,现阶段,消除我国经济周期所带来的社会福利非常小,少于提升消费增长速度0.1%所带来的社会福利,与抑制经济周期相比,政府应该把主要精力放在如何促进经济增长上。     

The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)

The main objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the socio-economic causes of terrorism and political violence in a sample of 12 countries in Western Europe. First, we show that in western European countries the classical economic argument of opportunity cost is confirmed. That is, the larger is the set of current economic opportunities for individuals the lower is the likelihood or the willingness for them to be involved in a terrorist activity. Second, expected future economic growth seems to be associated with an increase in current terrorist activities. Eventually, our results also show that terrorist brutality (measured in people killed) is positively associated with real GDP per capita.