Conflict resolution and the deregulation of the South African transport sector

Transportation policy has achieved increasing recognition as a key variable influencing the development process in Southern Africa. The present paper explores the way in which the South African Transport Services have been forced to pursue two largely conflicting goals, namely to function as a commercial organisation while simultaneously obligated to further the economic and political objectives of public policy. It is argued that carefully planned deregulation provides a solution to the current impasse if certain preconditions for equal intermodal competition are established. The impact of such a policy of planned deregulation on industrial decentralisation and economic efficiency is examined, and an integrated approach is proposed to minimise any adverse effects on development.     

Tenure security and productivity in small‐scale agriculture in Zimbabwe: Implications for South Africa

This article tests empirically the interaction between land tenure security and agricultural productivity in small‐scale agriculture in Zimbabwe. Data for the analysis were gathered during April and August of 1995 by means of an interview survey of farmers in the small‐scale commercial sector, communal area and Model A resettlement area of Zimbabwe. Two‐stage least squares regression estimates reveal that land tenure security has a positive and significant influence on investment incentives and agricultural productivity in the sample. This result has two important implications for proposed land reforms in South .. Africa. Firstly, the result lends support to the notion that indigenous tenure institutions in communal areas of South Africa are a constraint on agricultural development. Secondly, it is clear that a national land redistribution policy must be accompanied by innovative tenure institutions which facilitate economic interaction and internalise externalities on land resettled by individuals and groups. This is particularly important in South Africa where groups of up to 300 families are being settled on commercial farms under a group ownership model.     

Exchange Rate Policy and Currency Substitution: The Case of Africa's Emerging Economies

This paper examines the dynamic of currency substitution (CS) in Egypt and South Africa. The study also assesses the causal relationships of this phenomenon. There are three main CS‐related differences between the two countries. These are (1) the orientation of economic policy, (2) the degree and level of CS, and (3) the trend of CS. During the study period 1991‐2001, Egypt used the exchange rate as an anchor to its economic programme. While in the case of South Africa, the authorities directly targeted inflation. During this period, CS in Egypt started at a substantial level and experienced a steady decline. Conversely, CS in South Africa started at an insignificant level, but observed an uninterrupted increase. The results suggest that the elasticity of CS, with respect to exchange rate, of South Africa is 2.3 times that of Egypt, and that the speed of adjustment in South Africa is 5 times faster than in Egypt. Granger‐causality tests indicate a unidirectional relationship from the exchange rate to CS, in both Egypt and South Africa. The test for the interest rate differential and CS indicate that causality runs from the former to the latter in South Africa, but it runs in the opposite direction in Egypt. The study suggests that despite the cost of the exchange rate anchoring policy, it is more suitable to a high CS environment. Inflation targeting policy can be effective in achieving its objective as long as the CS is insignificant.     

Contributing to the African Renaissance vision: The role of South African higher education institutions

President Mbeki is emphasising the vision of an African Renaissance in many of his public addresses. Many multifaceted inputs are required to realise this vision, and human resources development is one of the cornerstones of this ideal. South African higher education institutions could play a major role in this quest by sharing their expertise to upgrade the scientific, economic and educational competencies of all people in Africa. Data analysis shows considerable potential for attracting students from Africa, especially from the Southern African Development Community, to study at South African institutions. Current initiatives for facilitating intellectual mobility across the country's borders lack vision, however. Academic exchange programmes in other countries could serve as models to kick-start the contributions of higher education institutions in South Africa in realising Mr Mbeki's vision for an African Renaissance.     

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

This paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero-lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

Higher education,employment and economic growth: Exploring the interactions

ABSTRACT

This article interrogates the impact and nature of South Africa’s post-apartheid economic growth performance through the lens of human capital investment with a particular emphasis on higher education. The South African economy has been characterised by a skills-biased trajectory, ensuring jobs for the better educated. By differentiating between tertiary and vocational training, we find that further education and training (FET) graduates are almost as likely to be employed as school leavers without higher education. We analyse the extent to which the educational attainments of labour affect the nature and trajectory of economic growth in South Africa, by estimating Olley and Pakes’ two-stage regression on a modified Cobb–Douglas production function. The results indicate that the degree cohort contributes to economic growth whilst other higher education institutions, including FET colleges, do not productively contribute to economic growth.     

SOUTH AFRICA AND THE NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICA'S DEVELOPMENT: ECONOMIC SPIN-OFFS AND LINKAGES

The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) is a concerted effort by Africa's political leaders to develop a comprehensive and integrated strategic policy framework to raise current levels of socio‐economic development and reduce high levels of poverty across the African continent. The NEPAD framework recognises the need for African countries to pool their resources together in order to enhance regional development and economic integration. To this end, NEPAD emphasises capacity building and also seeks to solicit and disburse funds towards infrastructural development programmes and poverty alleviation projects, among others. South Africa's involvement with the rest of Africa has increased significantly since 1994. Trade exports, foreign direct investment (both market and resource‐seeking in nature) and public‐private partnerships have mushroomed in many parts of the continent. Many South African firms are providing the financial impetus for the infrastructural development and rehabilitation of African economies. This paper discusses salient economic linkages between South Africa and the rest of Africa within the framework of NEPAD. South Africa is the economic hub of sub‐Saharan Africa (and indeed of the African continent), with significant agricultural, manufacturing and services capacity. South African firms have invested in the development of a number of sectors in the rest of Africa, taking advantage of the new investment incentives offered by the NEPAD framework. The target sectors range from mining, the hospitality industry, engineering and construction, finance to telecommunications. These investments and economic involvements are crucial to the development of African countries and the relevant sectors that are important for the realisation of some of the objectives of NEPAD.     

The rationale for an employment guarantee in South Africa

This article considers what would happen if unemployed people in South Africa had a right to a minimum level of regular work on decent terms. It looks at the example of India, where a law was passed in 2005 guaranteeing rural households up to 100 days of work a year at minimum wage rates. More than 55 million households now participate in this programme – a rare example of a policy innovation bringing about significant change in a society. India's employment guarantee has important implications for social and economic policy and gives new meaning to the concept of ‘a right to work’. The article explores how structural inequality limits South Africa's development options, and considers early lessons from South Africa's Community Work Programme to make the case for an employment guarantee in South Africa.     

History of industrial decentralization in South Africa (Part I): The regional concentration of industry and the historical basis of the policy∗

This research deals broadly with the history and development of industrial decentralization in South Africa. It provides a basic analysis of a number of inseparable historic, political and economic issues, and is presented in two parts. This first part begins by tracing the economic forces that generated current concentrated patterns of economic activity in South Africa, and goes on to review the origins of the industrial decentralization policy. It concludes that despite a relatively rigid natural regional economic structure that developed historically, and despite the continued presence of the economic forces that brought this structure about, the government commenced with a policy of industrial decentralization in 1960. The second part of the research firstly assesses the development of the policy in an attempt to indicate reasons for major changes, and secondly discusses the impact of the policy with reference to current evidence. It concludes that the industrial decentralization policy may have had serious economic consequences to date, but may nevertheless have a continued role to play in the ongoing political development of the country. The approach throughout has been to provide a relatively compact chronology of the policy and its antecedents.     

Financial intermediation,regulation and the formal microcredit sector in South Africa

This article evaluates demand- and supply-side aspects of the formal microcredit sector in South Africa and the environment in which the sector is regulated. Although South Africa has a competitive financial sector relative to a sample of upper middle-income countries, the historical bias towards formal sector banking resulted in a lack of appropriate credit instruments for poorer people. In 1992, new regulations facilitated the legalisation of microfinance institutions and, by 2000, the sector had grown to over 2 per cent of total credit extended by the monetary sector, with over 1 300 institutions supplying microcredit to the public. The article presents the first statistics of different types of microcredit institutions as well as some of their disbursement trends, recorded since 1999 by the Micro Finance Regulatory Council. Thereafter, the demand for credit is assessed between 1995 and 2000, before best-practice regulation and South Africa's degree of compliance are discussed.     

History of industrial decentralization in South Africa (part II)∗: Historical development and impact of the policy

This research deals broadly with the history and development of industrial decentralization in South Africa. It provides a basic analysis of a number of inseparable historic, political and economic issues, and is presented in two parts. The first part firstly traced the economic forces that generated current concentrated patterns of economic activity in South Africa, and secondly, reviewed the origins of the industrial decentralization policy. It concluded that despite a relatively rigid natural regional economic structure that developed historically, and despite the continued presence of the economic forces that brought this structure about, the government began with a policy of industrial decentralization in 1960. The second part of the research, published here, firstly assesses the development of the policy in an attempt to indicate reasons for major changes, and secondly discusses the impact of the policy with reference to current evidence. It concludes that the industrial decentralization policy may have had serious economic consequences to date, but may nevertheless have a continued role in the ongoing political development of the country. The approach throughout has been to provide a relatively compact'chronology of the policy and its antecedents.     

Tourism and local economic development: The case of the Highlands Meander

Local economic development (LED) planning is of major policy importance in post-apartheid South Africa. Although issues surrounding LED have attracted considerable policy attention, one neglected theme has been the role of tourism as a lead sector for LED. The aim of this article is to examine the planning and workings of one tourism-led LED initiative in South Africa. The case study is that of the Highlands Meander in Mpumalanga province, where five towns are collaborating in their LED initiatives in order to promote the area's tourism products. A key finding is that this growing tourism initiative is currently not benefiting local black communities. Recommendations are offered for developing a pro-poor tourism initiative.     

Infant industry characteristics and decentralisation policy in South Africa∗

The policy of decentralisation of industry in South Africa is effected through a system of incentives and subsidies designed towards shifting resources from the urban areas to the rural areas. This paper examines this policy in the light of the infant industry argument for protection and its economic efficacy. In particular, the analysis is applied to a comparison of manufacturing industry in the Black States and in the rest of South Africa. Furthermore, the relationship between estimated differential subsidy rates granted to a sample of decentralised firms is examined in terms of their differential infant industry characteristics and capital intensity.     

Spatial economic development in South Africa: an overview and evaluation of the platinum spatial development initiative

The Platinum Spatial Development Initiative (Platinum SDI), located in the North West province of South Africa, is examined in this article. The article commences with a historical synopsis of industrial policy and regional industrial development policy in South Africa. Thereafter the trade and industrial policies of the North West Provincial Government are discussed in the contexts of its economic development strategies ‘North West 2001’ from 1997, and the ‘North West Economic Development and Industrialisation Strategy’ from 2002. Various arguments for and against the viability of the Platinum SDI are put forward.     

REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY

The regulation of the telecommunications industry in South Africa is, by design, a complex matter, since it is mired with overlaps of mandates between the regulator, Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) and the Competition Commission on competition matters, coupled with vetoing powers of the Minister of Communications. The Harvard Business Model is employed in this article to show that there is a lack of coordinated effort between the regulator and its supporting structures. This then compromises efficiency as demanded by Parliament from state enacted bodies. Since ICASA is faced with dynamic economic and regulatory challenges, it is recommended that the regulator be fully resourced and granted regulatory as well as competitive authority in the telecommunications industry.     

The Political Economy of Middle‐Income Traps: Is South Africa in a Long‐Run Growth Trap? The Path to “Bounded Populism”

The current literature on middle‐income traps has been dominated by economists who have relied on economic explanations mainly around stages of development and the structural transformation of economies. But there is an equally vigorous literature from political science which speaks to the political economy of transitions. We look at the dynamics of how economic modernisation triggers structural changes with winners and losers and how this is reflected in the polarisation of the political sphere amongst middle‐income countries. This paper asks the question of whether South Africa is an archetypical example of a country stuck in a trap and how this has affected the policy choices that it has made. South Africa needs to move up the value chain with a viable value proposition, and this requires a very different policy set and human capital plan.     

Immigration policy in South Africa: does it make economic sense?

Current levels of international labour migration are exceptional. Several thousand skilled South Africans leave the country each year. Historically, the country attracted more skilled workers than it lost, from Europe and, more recently, other African countries. But emigration is increasing and immigration is restricted by policy and a range of socio-economic factors. The trends in the ‘brain drain’ from South Africa and its causes and severity are relatively well understood and will be reviewed in this paper. However, the policy response has been slow and confused. The paper highlights some of the economic determinants and effects of South African emigration and immigration and reviews recent changes to South African migration legislation. It asks how South Africa can attract the right kind of skilled immigrants and what more can be done to stem the loss of professionals from the country.     

South Africa’s Economic Transformation Since 1994: What Influence has the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) Had?

When the African National Congress (ANC) became the democratic government of South Africa in 1994, it faced the challenge of transforming the economy. How this was to be done, however, revolved around two divergent views of the National Democratic Revolution (NDR) which forms the underlying ideology or glue that binds together the Tripartite Alliance comprising the ANC, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), the largest workers’ union in the country. Transformation could be achieved either radically through measures such as nationalisation where political control would be transposed into economic power, or via a more liberal route involving the promotion of macro-economic development and the growth of company earnings. This article investigates how the ANC government has sought to bring about the much-needed transformation by providing summary analyses of the following macro-economic policies: the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) strategy, the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative - South Africa (ASGISA), the New Growth Path (NGP) and the National Development Plan (NDP). Evidence suggests that while the NDR promised radical results, the economic transformation that has been taking place in South Africa since 1994 has been driven largely by neo-liberal principles. This is in contrast to what the ANC claims in various policy documents and what various scholars, such as Jeffery (2010:5) and Venter (2012), have also claimed. As South Africa’s economic fortunes have declined in recent years in the face of mounting external pressures and internal policy uncertainty, this deviation from the original ideology and plan is causing significant discord in the country.     

Discourses of privatisation: the case of South Africa's water sector

The neoliberal offensive incipient during the 1970s matured into a globally hegemonic discourse during the 1990s. Developing countries like South Africa have their own peculiar brand of neoliberalism. This has taken various forms in South Africa, one of which is privatisation. Its discursive origins may be traced to key thinkers and institutions. And while there is a general discourse of privatisation there also exist sub-discourses in particular sectors, such as the water services sector. This paper examines the way a general discourse of privatisation evolved in South Africa and how this discourse has filtered into water services delivery. It argues that key role players and institutions acted as disseminators of a discourse of privatisation in the water services sector.