The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

A STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO COMPARING MRIO DATABASES

The construction of multi-regional input–output tables is complex, and databases produced using different approaches lead to different analytical outcomes. We outline a decomposition methodology for investigating the variations that exist when using different multiregional input–output (MRIO) systems to calculate a region's consumption-based account. Structural decomposition analysis attributes the change in emissions to a set of dependent determinants, such as technical coefficients, the Leontief inverse and final demands. We apply our methodology to three MRIO databases – Eora, GTAP and WIOD. Findings reveal that the variation between Eora and GTAP can be attributed to differences in the Leontief inverse and emissions’ data, whereas the variation between Eora and WIOD is due to differences in final demand and the Leontief inverse. For the majority of regions, GTAP and WIOD produce similar results. The approach in this study could help move MRIO databases from the academic arena to a useful policy instrument.     

CONSTRUCTING AN ENVIRONMENTALLY-EXTENDED MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE USING THE GTAP DATABASE

The use of Multi-Regional Input–Output Analysis (MRIOA) for understanding global environmental problems is growing rapidly. Renewed interest in MRIOA has led to several large research projects focused on constructing detailed and accurate MRIOTs. However, very few researchers have made use of the already available and regularly updated database produced by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We demonstrate and discuss how the GTAP database can be converted into an MRIOT without the need for additional balancing. An illustrative example uses the GTAP-MRIO to reallocate carbon dioxide emissions from producing to consuming countries. We suggest that an MRIOT that treats international transport exogenously is adequate until more reliable data on international transport margins and emissions are available. To focus resources and refine methods, a concerted research effort is needed to compare the results of the GTAP-MRIO model with the new MRIO datasets under development.     

Semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems in real expenditure

Microdata concerning consumer demand typically show considerable variation in real expenditures, but very little variation in prices. We propose a semiparametric strategy for the consumer demand problem in which expenditure share equations are estimated nonparametrically in the real expenditure direction and estimated parametrically (with fixed or varying coefficients) in price directions. In our model, Engel curves are unrestricted: demands may have any rank. Because the demand model is derived from a cost function, it may be restricted to satisfy integrability and used for consumer surplus calculations. Since real expenditure is unobserved, but rather estimated under the model, we face a semiparametric model with a nonparametrically generated regressor. We show efficient convergence rates for parametric and nonparametric components. We illustrate the feasibility of our proposed strategy using Canadian expenditure and price data: Engel curves display curvature which cannot be encompassed by standard parametric models. We also find that the rationality restriction of Slutsky symmetry is rejected in the fixed‐coefficients model, but not in the varying‐coefficients model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does sentiment explain consumption?

This paper examines whether “consumer sentiment,” an often neglected variable, explains consumption expenditures for Australia. Since household consumption accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. GDP and a similar proportion in other developed economies, fluctuations in consumption may result in significant changes in the state of the economy. Therefore, we develop a theoretical model that suggests why consumer sentiment may influence consumption expenditures. Furthermore, using a carefully specified consumption function as the “test-bed,” we consider empirically whether there is an independent impact of sentiment on consumption. Our results suggest that consumer sentiment does influence variations in consumption expenditure.     

Calendar synchronization of gasoline price increases

In many retail gasoline markets with Edgeworth price cycles, large and regular price increases occur on the same day of the week every week, that is, they are calendar synchronized. In this article, I test whether calendar synchronization leads to higher or lower consumer expenditures on gasoline compared to a world with cycles but without calendar synchronization. On one hand, firms may attempt to trigger price increases just prior to periods of normally high demand. On the other, consumers may be better able to predict and shift purchases to low price days of the cycle. Using high‐frequency gasoline volume data and matching it to high‐frequency price data, I find that the latter effect dominates. All else equal, consumer expenditures on gasoline fall with calendar synchronization in the study markets. I also calculate intertemporal price elasticities and find them to be high.     

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF A US MULTIREGIONAL HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SYSTEM

This paper applies the maximum-likelihood equation to a model that produces US regional household expenditure estimates using national-level data on average expenditures by type of household and regional data on the number of households by type. Empirical results follow the analytical properties of the model and demonstrate an impressive capacity to recover regional statistics. These findings are useful in applied regional studies since they demonstrate a general framework to assess the input data and the overall estimation model.     

碳关税对世界经济和农产品贸易的影响研究

采用GTAP 8.0模拟欧盟、美国、日本分别和同时征收碳关税时对世界经济和产品贸易的影响。结果表明：碳关税将对世界经济均衡增长产生负面影响,受影响最大的是中国、金砖和东盟国家;碳关税将改变世界贸易结构和贸易利益格局,发达国家受益、发展中国家受损;碳关税将使世界农产品出口总额小幅下降,但对改善世界农产品贸易结构具有积极作用。     

Preferences of citizens for public expenditures on elementary and secondary education

This paper presents an empirical analysis of citizens' preferences for public elementary and secondary education expenditures. Survey data collected in conjunction with a school tax referendum and a multinomial probit random utility model are used to make inferences concerning the preference mappings of citizens. These estimated mappings, in turn, imply unique estimates of the demands of citizens for public education expenditures. Citizens' beliefs concerning whether expenditures are wisely spent and will affect school quality are seen to be important determinants of demand. The impact of citizens' perceptions of tax costs is also considered.     

Public spending,public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis

This study examines the role of economic governance in the relationship between public spending, private investment, and economic growth in Vietnam at the provincial level. The study data consist of sixty-two Vietnamese provinces for the period 2006–2015. Some notable results are attained by applying a sequential (two-stage) estimation. First, the marginal benefits to economic growth of increased Vietnamese provincial government expenditures may be constrained because of the inefficiency of expenditures on education, business services, and public administration. Second, public spending and private investment are found to be substitutes at the provincial level. Third, based on the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) ranking, used as a proxy for provincial public governance in Vietnam, the significance of public governance can be observed. The study concludes that good governance, characterized by different attributes, such as lower informal charges, greater transparency, and unbiased policy, plays a critical role in improving the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces, particularly through its interactions with private sector investment.     

THE LOCATION OF NONMETROPOLITAN HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES: A Comparison of Regional Determinants

A study of the location of three classifications of high-tech industries in rural areas was undertaken using ordinary least squares, Tobit, and a two-step estimation procedure suggested by Heckman (1976). The results indicate that the location decision for high tech firms is influenced primarily by the county population, adjacency to an SMSA, and the expenditures on public infrastructure (exclusive of education expenditures). However, location near interstate highways was generally not a significant factor. Results were similar between branch and unit (single ownership) plants. Some differences in signs of orders of magnitude occurred among the estimation procedures. Making a choice between Tobit and Heckman approaches depends upon the goal of the research.     

基于不同类型消费者的再制造策略研究

本文对一个垄断制造商的再制造策略进行了研究。首先根据消费者对于再制造产品的接受程度把消费者分为两类，然后根据不同类型消费者的特点，给出了在不同的价格策略下，再制造产品和新产品的需求函数。据此本文建立了制造商的最优决策模型，并分别给出了制造商的最优价格策略。最后通过数值分析对结果进行了进一步的验证。     

Policy intervention and forecasting: An application to minimum wages

This paper examines the forecasting implications of incorporating policy effects into the structure of unconditional time series models. The forecasting model is applied to the Puerto Rican experience with minimum wages from 1953 to 1982. The empirical results suggest that significant disemployment and unemployment followed the imposition of economy-wide minimum wages in 1974. The growth of employment suffered and the aggregate unemployment rate reached an unprecedented level. Multivariate time-series models for the employment-population ratio and the unemployment rate capture these effects well. They also forecast more accurately than unvariate and intervention models over the ex post period, 1983–1984. It is argued that models that combine subject matter-specific structure within a dynamic time-series framework greatly help to satisfy demands for theoretical consistency and forecast accuracy. Multivariate time-series models play an important complementary role in the structural modelling of economic policy analysis. This is particularly so when limitations of either data or theory preclude complete specification of structural equations.     

基于消费者偏好的生鲜农产品网络销售策略

随着电商经济的发展,构建基于消费者偏好的生鲜农产品网络销售模式是优化农产品销售渠道、降低销售成本的重要举措。影响网络销售的因素比较多,尤其是不同消费群体对于网络产品的需求不统一,因此,为了提升生鲜农产品的网络销售量,电商企业要针对消费者的不同偏好进行分析。论文以生鲜农产品网络销售的现状为切入点,阐述构建基于消费者偏好的生鲜农产品网络销售的具体对策。     

The impact of access to consumer data on the competitive effects of horizontal mergers and exclusive dealing

We examine the influence of firms’ ability to employ individualized pricing on the welfare consequences of horizontal mergers. In a two‐to‐one merger, the merger reduces consumer surplus more when firms can price discriminate based on individual preferences compared to when they cannot. However, the opposite holds true in a three‐to‐two merger, in which the reduction in consumer surplus is substantially lower with individualized pricing than with uniform pricing. Further, the merger requires an even smaller marginal cost reduction to justify when an upstream data provider can make exclusive offers for its data to downstream firms. We also show that exclusive contracts for consumer data pose significant antitrust concerns independent of merger considerations. Implications for vertical integration and data mergers are drawn.     

Policy on the margin: Evaluating the impact of margin debt requirements on stock valuations

Rapidly rising stock prices in the 1990s raised worries about potential inflationary or destabilizing effects. The use of initial margin debt requirements by the Federal Reserve was proposed to reduce the run-up in stock prices. This paper evaluates the likely impact of margin debt requirements on stock valuations. The results suggest that higher margin requirements would have had no impact on stock market valuations in the 1990s, Moreover, other forms of consumer credit are relatively more important in determining household equity positions than margin debt, making the control of margin debt not an obvious public policy choice.(JEL E58, G18)     

Data,Linkages and Models: US National Income and Product Accounts in the Framework of a Social Accounting Matrix

In policy analysis, there is a continuing tension and interplay between issues, models and data. Issues and models have changed in recent years, and there is a need for evolution in the underlying economy-wide economic data base. We discuss accounting frameworks for integrating micro-survey data with macro-data from the national economic accounts. We take a modeler's perspective, arguing that new accounts are needed to support policy modeling. We discuss in detail the use of a social accounting matrix (SAM). A SAM provides a data framework which reflects an actor/transaction view of the economy and supports disaggregated economy-wide modeling. We discuss the relationship between a SAM and the existing national economic accounts for the USA, including the national income and product accounts and the input–output accounts.     

Assessing the potential demand for electric cars

An ordered logit specification for use on ranked individual data is used to analyze survey data on potential consumer demand for electric cars. In many situations in economics and marketing we would like to be able to forecast consumer demands for goods which have not yet appeared in actual markets. By defining goods as a bundle of underlying attributes, we can use discrete choice models to estimate consumer evaluations. Then new good demand is forecast by use of the estimated coefficients to compare consumer evaluation of the new good to existing choices. When ranked individual data are available, we can estimate separate coefficients for each individual rather than assuming identical coefficients as is usual with logit models. Our results indicate considerable dispersion in individual coefficients. This finding can have important implications for new product analysis.     

The relative importance of campaign expenditures: An application of production theory

In an election campaign a politician attempts to combine the resources at his disposal so as to maximize the percent of the votes he receives. This behavior is consistent with an economic model of production where the producer combines inputs in order to maximize output. In this paper the concept of an election campaign as a production process is applied to elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. The three inputs were campaign expenditures, years of tenure in office, and the percent of registered voters in candidate's party. Cobb-Douglas and CES versions of the production function are estimated. Each estimation indicated that the marginal productivity of campaign expenditures was very low. Further, the CES estimation indicated low elasticity of substitution between campaign expenditures and other inputs. This means that it is difficult for a candidate who faces a disadvantage—either because his opponent is an incumbent with several years experience, or because he belongs to a minority party—to overcome this disadvantage by simply spending more money.     

Institutional versus non-institutional credit to agricultural households in India: Evidence on impact from a national farmers’ survey

A goal of agricultural policy in India has been to reduce farmers’ dependence on informal credit. To that end, recent initiatives are focused explicitly on rural areas and have a positive impact on the flow of agricultural credit. Despite the significance of the above initiatives in enhancing the flow of institutional credit to agriculture, the links between institutional credit and net farm income and consumption expenditures in India are not very well documented. Using large, national farm household level data and IV 2SLS estimation methods, we investigate the role of institutional farm credit on farm income and farm household consumption expenditures. Findings show that, in India, formal credit does indeed play a critical role in increasing both net farm income and per capita monthly household expenditures of Indian farm families. Finally, we find that, in the presence of formal credit, social safety net programs like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may have unintended consequences. In particular, MGNREGA reduces both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. On the other hand, in the presence of formal credit, the Public Distribution System may increase both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures.