Income diversification before and after economic shocks: evidence from urban and rural Zimbabwe

The article examines changes in income and activity diversification in Zimbabwe before and after macroeconomic policy changes and the droughts of the early 1990s. Data from two comparable national surveys straddling a period of economic volatility show that the percentage of households earning income from private and informal sources grew considerably, while income from government and formal sources declined. In general, rural households tend to have a more diversified portfolio of income than urban households, and the degree of income diversification decreases with the level of urbanisation. Following the shocks, there was a marked reduction in income diversification, notably among the poor. The findings thus strengthen the need for public provision of well-designed safety nets.     

The influence of policy on the roles of agriculture in South Africa

This article provides a framework for the analysis of the relationship between different macroeconomic, sector and commodity policies and the multiplier effects of agriculture. It starts with a listing of the macroeconomic, sector and commodity policies that have been included in the analysis. These should be considered in conjunction with the likely roles of agriculture along each of the dimensions of the social, poverty and cultural roles of agriculture. These policies and roles should be conceptualised as the vertical and horizontal axes respectively of a ‘policy role’ matrix. The ‘cells’ of this matrix – the policy role interactions – are discussed with respect to the immediate macroeconomic, agricultural, economic, institutional and social impact of the policy change on the agricultural sector at farm, regional, national and multinational levels, and thereafter on the role of agriculture in terms of each of the dimensions identified above.     

From source to sink: "official" and "improved" water in Delhi, 1868–1956

This article examines the making of a modern colonial city through the rhetoric of ‘improvement’ and ‘progress’ in relation to water. The reference is to the history of water in the city of Delhi and what may be called ‘the first science of environment’ in a colonial urban context, with a focus not so much on the ‘extent’ of water supply and drainage, and its (in)adequacy in the colonial city, as on concerns around the ‘(im)purity’ of water, narratives of pollution, technologies of purity and the transformations they effected in a colonial context. In doing so it hopes to build upon a rich tradition of writings on urban water, its modernisation as also its location within a colonial regime, being suggestive of a framework in which we may consider water both as infrastructure and as environment, as much a network of pipes and drains as matters of pollution and well-being, as much a story of the search for and protection of the source as of the fate of the sink into which it ultimately flows.     

The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy

This study examines the long-run relationship between exports and imports of the Indian economy during 1950–51 to 2008–09. Applying unit root test and cointegration technique that allows for endogenously determined structural break in the relationship, the results do not support the existence of any long-run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports and interest payments on net debt for India. Individually exports and imports have multiple breaks clustered roughly around three periods: early and mid seventies – the ‘comfort period’ in the country's balance of payments; 1986–87 that witnessed a sudden jump in exports trend after experiencing a flat trend in the first half of 1980s; and 1997–98 following the East Asian currency crisis. The findings imply that India's macroeconomic policies have not been very effective to ensure sustainability of trade deficit in the long-run and suggest that India is in violation of its international budget constraint.     

Linking environment and development,easier said than done: learning from the Zimbabwean experience

Despite the popularity of the concept of sustainable development, there is growing evidence that, globally, human enterprise is becoming less sustainable rather than more. This paper examines this concept and the difficulty of linking it with environmental concerns. Developing countries emphasise economic growth and the eradication of poverty as prerequisites for sustainable development, but despite national strategies and programmes, implementation, especially in Africa, remains weak and fraught with problems. Focusing on national strategies for sustainable development in Zimbabwe, this paper highlights the fragmented and sectoral approach that results in low impact. Agenda 21 as a blueprint for sustainable development underestimates the complexities of diverse situations on the ground and the political and socio-economic realities of development that are in constant flux. Sustainable development initiatives fail to successfully integrate development with environmental concerns, poverty is not adequately addressed, and conservation is regarded as merely an income-generating luxury.     

Short-term effects of policy reform on tourism and the macroeconomy in Zimbabwe: Applied CGE analysis

This article applies a short-term computable general equilibrium model for Zimbabwe to trace the direct and indirect effects of policy on the macroeconomy and tourism. The results show that the main reason why benefits from tourism are bypassing the country is because of poorly sequenced macroeconomic policies and a negative political climate. As and when the national political situation stabilises and the economy begins to grow again, an urgent macroeconomic thrust should be to implement a credible macroeconomic stabilisation programme, consisting in the main of reduced fiscal deficits, flexible foreign exchange markets and tight monetary policies to rein in inflation. However, because Zimbabwe is in arrears, there can be no programmes or lending with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Getting the budget in order without aid money will be very tough indeed, and the alternative is worse. It means debt deflation by means of hyperinflation.     

Urbanization and third world stability

This essay reviews images of urbanization that have been held by academics and activists, including revolutionary leaders. It examines the methodology and findings of case studies in Nigeria, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Kenya, Turkey, Malaysia and other countries with the aim of determining how well suited are our data and theories for assessing the relationship between urbanization and political stability. The review examines the following topics: migration; political participation and the urban poor; radical parties and urban violence; the ‘over-urbanization’ thesis; class and ethnicity. It especially evaluates the role of so-called ‘urban marginals’ in urban political life and concludes that the evidence is overwhelming that there is no widespread ‘culture of poverty’ or ‘culture of apathy’ among the urban poor indeveloping countries.     

A Poverty Assessment Exercise in Zimbabwe

This paper provides a brief analysis and documentation of the experience of a recent poverty assessment exercise in Zimbabwe. It starts with a reflection on the background and context of the Poverty Assessment Study (PAS) followed by a review of conceptual issues in the measurement of poverty and the construction of poverty lines. It also provides a brief analysis of the poverty profile in Zimbabwe. The study showed that poverty at the time was very high in the rural areas compared to the urban areas and particularly higher in the communal lands. Other observed characteristics were the ‘juvenization and feminization’ of poverty, as it had been noticed there was a greater incidence of poverty among children and female-headed households. Le présent document analyse brièvement et tire les leçons d’une récente étude faite au Zimbabwe sur l’évaluation de la pauvreté. Il commence par une réflexion sur la genèse et le contexte de l’Etude d’évaluation de la pauvreté (EEP). Cette réflexion est ensuite suivie par une analyse des paramètres conceptuels servant à mesurer la pauvreté et à en définir les limites. Le document analyse aussi brièvement les caractéristiques de la pauvreté au Zimbabwe. Il y est démontré que le niveau de pauvretéétait très élevé au moment de l’étude dans les zones rurales comparativement aux régions urbaines, et qu’il était encore particulièrement plus élevé dans les terres communales. Certaines particularités telles que “le rajeunissement et la féminisation” de la pauvreté sont également observées, dans la mesure où l’on constate une plus grande incidence de la pauvreté chez les enfants et les ménages dirigés par une femme.     

Price adjustment after hyperinflation in Zimbabwe

This paper examines—post‐dollarization in Zimbabwe—the extent of price dispersion within Zimbabwe and between Zimbabwe and South Africa. We document the adjustment process, and the mechanisms of price adjustment after the introduction of the new currency system in Zimbabwe. We show that prices converged post‐dollarization. We argue that the fall in price dispersion is not a product or a Southern Africa region effect. Rather it is a Zimbabwe specific effect and given that price convergence happens quicker the closer the month is to the dollarization, we argue that the observed results are driven by the change in currency. Price dispersion happens faster between major cities and secondary cities, suggesting improvements in information and trade signals between major and secondary cities. These results suggest that the positive effects of a stable currency fall disproportionally on secondary cities, implying price stability not only has macroeconomic benefits, but also developmental benefits since secondary cities and rural areas are on average, poorer than main cities.     

Regional Integration and Energy Sustainability in Africa: Exploring the Challenges and Prospects for ECOWAS

This study explores the extent to which regional integration can be a viable tool in driving energy sustainability in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sub‐region of Africa and vice versa. It examines the existing opportunities and the attendant challenges for improved firm productivity in the region through the appraisal of the ECOWAS West African Power Pool. Using three measures of energy sustainability, namely energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability; the study presents the performance of the ECOWAS sub‐region in ensuring regional integration for energy sustainability. The findings from the study reveal, inter alia, that there are prospects and benefits for energy integration for sustainable development in the region. However, even though some progress had been made, there are many challenges. Also, where progress had been made, it is not uniform across the region, though factors such as rising population and political instability could be responsible. It is recommended that the political economy surrounding regional energy integration should be given a priority among member states to ensure that there is positive political will for speedy achievement of set goals. Also, investment in human capital to manage the different projects and maintain the facilities cannot be overemphasized.     

Changes in Well-being in Zimbabwe, 1990-6: Evidence Using Semi-parametric Density Estimates

Semi-parametric density reweighting techniques are used to examinesources of change in well-being in Zimbabwe during the first-halfof the 1990s. Changes in urban well-being are decomposed intochanges in employment propensities, changes in human capitalattainment and changes in the structure of urban employmentchoice. Declines in national well-being are decomposed intochanges resulting from urban–rural residence choice andchanges in the structure of residential location. Finally, worseningrural conditions are decomposed into that part due to droughtand that due to improved educational attainment. Results showthat despite improvements in human capital attainment duringthe 1990s, well-being has worsened in all employment states.Investments in human capital only partially offset the generalworsening of the economy. Likewise, decisions to migrate tourban areas from rural Zimbabwe helped offset worsening ruralconditions. Drought explains a small amount of the general ruraldecline, but the bigger part of the worsening was due to generalequilibrium effects associated with a deteriorating economy.     

Talking to the ancestors: national heritage,the Freedom Charter and nation-building in South Africa in 2005

The Freedom Charter has a significant place in South African liberation history. This paper is a re-reading of the document in 21st century conditions and locates its ideas within contexts that have not previously been brought into debate. In particular, it argues that the Freedom Charter is part of national heritage, but of a special kind relating to its being part of a ‘democratic stream’. This is because of its mass democratic mode of creation and resultant product. It also interrogates the notion of ‘The People’ and what ‘The People’ think, bringing into focus unacknowledged knowledge, especially the questions of orality and communication with ancestors. The notion of ‘brotherhood’ as used in the Charter is examined as connoting more than a gender-related concept–a specific way of human beings relating to one another, akin to that of siblings, signifying cooperation rather than individual isolation or competitiveness. This and questions of gender are addressed in the context of nation-building.     

The United Nations and low politics: Environmental & human security in East Asia*

In a world order characterized by ideological conflicts, low politics’ usually goes by the wayside. Policymakers focus on ‘high politics’ such as issues on state security, diplomacy and warfare. The September 11^th attack was an epitome of terrorism that calls for not only the protection of territorial and political security of the state but also the safeguarding of the individual or group from all threats to human survival. This paper raises the issues on ‘environmental security’ and ‘human security,’ particularly in the context of East Asia and reviews the efforts of the United Nations to safeguard the global environment and human rights. Finally, this paper reflects on the future role of the United Nations in non‐traditional security arenas with special emphasis on its role in East Asia.     

Fiscal discipline in the European monetary union

This paper explores the question of how national fiscal policies could be conducted within the European Monetary Union. The discussion touches upon this issue in relation to the theory of optimum currency areas; presents the debt sustainability issue in the context of a monetary union; examines briefly the determinants of debt dynamics; and interprets the restraints imposed on national fiscal policies by the Maastricht Treaty. The tentative conclusion is that the creation of the EMU will be associated with smaller size national government sectors.Invited Address at the Thirty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 8–15, 1994. Financial support by the Economic Research Center of the Athens University of Economics and Business is gratefully acknowledged.     

The pressure towards protectionism: Is it systematic? A legacy of the recession? The result of policy to promote recovery?

In light of the concern being expressed in many national and international fora about the pressures towards protectionism, this paper explores the reasons for and the possible consequences of this new protectionist trend. The analysis is restricted to macroeconomic issues and policy situations. In answer to the question, ‘Can the current recovery be turned into durable economic growth, more evenly distributed among countries, across productive sectors, and throughout the population?’, the author replies in the affirmative on two conditions: (i) if macroeconomic and structural adjustments are pursued with unmitigated determination where needed; and (ii) if trade, the vital link among our economies, is allowed to revive worldwide. The core of the paper discusses four major unresolved policy issues that have important implications for world trade: (1) internal and external imbalances in the US recovery; (2) trade and underperformance in Europe; (3) the question of Japan and the Pacific NICs; and (4) external debt and adjustment in LDCs.     

Changes in poverty in Zimbabwe between 1990 and 1996: Worsening outcomes under adverse conditions

The article examines changes in poverty and sources of change in Zimbabwe between 1990 and 1996. Comparable national survey data are used for both periods. Findings indicate that levels of wellbeing and poverty worsened during the period, although there is some evidence that inequality is lower in the latter year. Rural poverty is more prevalent, severe and deeper than that in urban areas, but urban poverty grew dramatically during the period. Much of the growth of urban poverty is associated with economic restructuring and the failure of the urban economy to produce high-quality jobs. While the educational attainment of the urban population grew during the 1990s, secondary and higher levels of education were no longer a guarantee of escape from poverty in 1995/6. In rural areas, all land-use types exhibited an increase in poverty; these findings are robust to the welfare measure chosen.     

Environmental sustainability innovations in the accommodation sub-sector: Views from Lilongwe,Malawi

ABSTRACT

Rising calls on sustainable practices ignited the need for hotels to develop innovative and sustainable ideas and approached to conserve the environment. This paper examines and discusses the existence and application of innovative sustainable environmental practices within Malawi hotels. Qualitative approaches were adopted to collect the data from public and private actors in the accommodation sub-sector. The Rogers Diffusion of Innovation Theory was used to determine the most prevalent reason for adopting an innovation strategy within some of the hotels in Lilongwe. It is reviewed that to a lesser extent some hotels adopted innovative strategies in water and energy use, waste management and hotel design. The collaborative effort between the government and private sector and the strengthening of the implementation of sustainability policies is recommended to promote environmental sustainability innovation. These views have been discussed within the broader discourse on environmental sustainability and innovations within hotels, in the Sub – Saharan African context.     

Anchor me: the benefits and challenges of fiscal responsibility

This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule‐based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government's nonbinding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government's intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, I use stochastic simulations and show the macroeconomic benefits of a well‐designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long‐term debt sustainability and an independent fiscal council that improves accountability and transparency.     

India and Indonesia: Lessons Learned from the 2013 Taper Tantrum

In May 2013, the US Federal Reserve began to talk about the possibility of ending its program of quantitative easing. This tapering talk had a significant impact on five main emerging-market countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey (the ‘Fragile Five’)—whose exchange rates weakened dramatically and whose stock and bond markets were hit hard. This series of events is now known as the ‘taper tantrum’. In response to the tantrum, these five countries each took a series of macroeconomic policy measures to relieve pressure in their financial markets. Indonesia and India handled the problem in the shortest time (about seven months) and achieved macro-economic stabilisation. This article examines how Indonesia and India managed to remain relatively unscathed by the taper tantrum and escape the Fragile Five. It looks at which policies the two countries adopted at the time, and why they chose them, as well as why India's economy performed better than Indonesia's after the tantrum.     

Exploring income variations across traditional authorities in KwaZulu‐Natal,South Africa

To understand income inequality and poverty, one must go beyond the important and much‐studied differences rural and urban living and investigate inequalities within rural areas. Using new South African data aggregated by ‘traditional authorities’, this article examines variations in per capita income across poor, rural, mostly black areas of KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN) province. The inequalities are significant. In explaining them, the article examines the importance of such variables as education, proportion of females in the resident population, population density, soil quality and rainfall. A geographical information system is used to map both the raw data and the residuals from a regression analysis, and this combination of statistical and geographical analyses yields new insights. Finally, the article suggests how these techniques might be supplemented by qualitative and quantitative studies of ‘overachieving’ and ‘underachieving’ traditional authorities ‐ those whose incomes per capita are well above or below what regression equations would predict.