Youth engagement in agricultural policy processes in Malawi

This study assesses the nature of networking between youth and agricultural policy-makers – given youth disillustionment with agricultural livelihoods. Using the Malawi case, a mixed-methods approach shows, first, that local government departments which are mandated to work on youth issues are the main hubs of information for youth in agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture plays a secondary role. Second, the study shows that youth in agriculture have little or no direct interactions with each other. Therefore, youth remain on the periphery of agricultural policy-making and their role in shaping agricultural policy dialogue is negligible. This is attributable to both lack of a deliberate government policy to include the youth and lack of a unified youth platform. The onus is therefore on the youth to ensure that they are effectively engaged in agricultural policy dialogue. The study concludes with policy recommendations relevant for countries with a ‘youth/agriculture’ problem like Malawi.     

Supply response under market liberalisation: A case study of Malawian agriculture

In order to analyse the effects of policy reforms, output supply and factor demand responses to input and output prices for Malawian agriculture are estimated in this article in a multiple-output, multiple-input framework. The implications of various structural adjustment policies implemented in Malawi are analysed using the model results for their impact on the smallholder agricultural sector. The results of the analysis indicate that removal of fertiliser subsidy – a major component of market reform policies – does not substantially reduce the production of maize, the major staple food in Malawi. However, when implemented in appropriate sequence along with other output market liberalisation policies and increased investment in infrastructure, such a policy is likely to increase the productivity of smallholder agriculture.     

Shifting the growth path to achieve employment intensive growth in South Africa

‘Employment intensive growth’ has become a centrepiece of government policy and implies that at any given level of growth, the economy needs to become more labour absorbing. State intervention (or the lack of it) is examined in two areas that are important for employment – agriculture and manufacturing. In the case of agriculture, it is argued that declining and ineffective state support has accelerated the rationalisation of commercial agriculture and failed to regenerate agriculture in the former Bantustans. With regard to the manufacturing sector, we argue that since 1994 the government has set a multiplicity of objectives but, de facto, there has been a surprising level of continuity in the overly generous assistance for heavy, capital-intensive industry. This paper argues that the negative impact of previous ‘distortions’ requires much more than a levelling of the playing field via market-based reforms. Pro-employment policies have to be placed at the centre of the policy agenda.     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

Foreign capital,welfare and urban unemployment in the presence of agricultural dualism

In a two sector mobile capital Harris–Todaro model, such as [Corden, W.M., Findlay, R., 1975. Urban unemployment, intersectoral capital mobility, and development policy in a dual economy. Economica 42, 59–78], an inflow of foreign capital in the presence of protectionist policy is welfare deteriorating as well as unemployment accentuating. But, the developing countries have chosen liberalized investment and trade policies as their development strategies and have been able to attract a considerable amount of foreign capital during the last two decades. A relevant question is why these countries are yearning for foreign capital given its detrimental effects as predicted by the conventional theoretical literature on trade and development. This paper makes an attempt to address the above issue in terms of a three sector Harris–Todaro model with agricultural dualism and a non-traded final commodity. In the given setup, an inflow of foreign capital is likely to improve welfare and does not necessarily worsen the problem of unemployment. The paper may also be useful to explain as to why many of the developing economies have experienced ‘jobless growth’ in the liberalized regime.     

The impact of structural adjustment on housing prices in China

Studies of the factors that influence housing prices have focused on housing characteristics, governmental policies, environmental goods, macroeconomic and social fundamentals, and so on. However, the effect of industrial structural adjustment on housing prices is worthy of further investigation. In China, it would be helpful to measure this effect to coordinate housing policy and the ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, which aims to accelerate industrial restructuring. We selected a spatial panel data model to quantify the effects of the industrial rationalisation and sophistication attributable to spatial dependence in housing prices. Estimation results show that structural adjustment has a statistically significant effect on housing prices that varies widely across regions. In descending order, the impact of industrial structure sophistication decreases in eastern, central, western, and northeastern China. This finding suggests that the government should match housing with local industry, prevent excessive real estate development in conventional agricultural areas, and pay close attention to changes in housing prices caused by increasing industrial restructuring.     

Macroeconomics of Agricultural Trade Liberalization

Abstract

In this article a macroeconomic model is built to examine interactions between the agricultural sector and the industrial sector in an emerging market economy. This article examines how monetary shock and real shocks produce agricultural price fluctuations and change in employment through multiple cross effects. Monetary shocks result in overshooting of primary commodity price while real shock in terms of rise in the production of primary commodity mitigates the volatility of primary price.     

Trajectories of social protection in Africa

Social protection in contemporary Africa is the product of several strands of social policy, from European social security systems to humanitarian relief interventions. Contributory social security mechanisms such as unemployment insurance and pensions were imported to Africa during the colonial period, but cover only a minority of formally employed workers. Food aid alleviates hunger but does not resolve problems of chronic food insecurity. Cash transfers are being promoted as an alternative to food aid, but have been criticised for being ineffective against price inflation and underwriting neoliberal economic policies. Some programmes link social transfers to public works employment and microfinance, with the aim of ‘graduating’ participants off social protection. This article argues instead for a ‘social contract’ approach – recognising the right to social protection, empowering passive beneficiaries to become entitled claimants, and introducing social audits to hold duty-bearers accountable for effective and equitable delivery of citizen-driven social protection policies.     

Rethinking Industrial Policy for Low Income Countries

Abstract: The governments of low income countries should be giving more attention to ‘industrial policy’ than they and the aid donors have given in the past quarter century. (‘Industrial policy’ means any sectorally or activity‐targeted interventions, including in agriculture and services.) The first step is to discard the common assumption that industrial policy is about ‘picking winners’. The second step is to realize that industrial policy can be done ‘big’ or ‘small’, and by ‘leading the market’ or by ‘following the market’. It can be tailored to the available resources and state capacity. The third step is to see that the key issues of industrial policy are less to do with ‘what activities should be encouraged?’, or ‘what sorts of policy instruments are best?’, and more to do with, ‘how do we organize a process of discovery of sensible objectives and policies?’, and ‘how do we organize a constant nudging of producers to upgrade, diversify, link up with foreign firms?’ (where the nudging effort has to be targeted at some activities and sectors more than others). The paper illustrates with East Asian examples. One of the good effects of the current global crisis is that it has shaken confidence in the virtues of lightly regulated markets and free capital movements, and opened the way to a less ideologically charged debate about the role of the state in development—in which thinking is not precluded by easy jeers like ‘governments can't pick winners’ or ‘maybe the East Asians can do it but you can’t, so you have nothing to learn about industrial policy from them’.     

Of markets,might and mullahs: a case for equity,pluralism and tolerance in development

This paper tries to confront the ‘puzzlement’ of the development profession regarding the ‘best’ alternative strategies aimed at increasing employment, reducing poverty and promoting equity at the same time as fostering economic growth — and the ‘advocacy’ role that should or should not be played by that profession. The author argues that the issue lies in achieving a workable ‘meaning’ of development and then moving on to the moral ‘questions’ of value judgments and to the specific ‘problems’ that can be dealt with by science and social science. He suggests that a possible meaning of development is ‘to create more options for more people’ — ‘to achieve that the greatest number of people have the greatest number of options.’ He discusses the need for improving ‘life chances’ and considers the development policies which may or may not assist in this process. He tries to tie together conceptually the ideas of power and social change, consensus and conflict. Also in this context, the roles of participation, organization and mobilization are explored, especially their impact on different political systems. The analysis concludes with a plea for social, cultural and political pluralism — and thus, a commitment to tolerance. The author argues that these goals should be addressed by the development community without the hesitation sometimes attached to ‘protection of expertise’.     

The Surge of Asian NIC Investment into Indonesia 1

Since 1987 a dramatic increase in both domestic and foreign investment in Indonesia, most of it in export-oriented activities, has occurred in response to improvements in a previously unattractive investment climate and in the country's trade regime. Most striking has been the rise in investment by Asia's four ‘newly-industrialising countries’ (NICs): Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. This paper analyses the factors contributing to this increase and the investment patterns of the four countries. It then focuses on investment in the manufacturing sector, where most of the NIC investments have taken place. The relative importance of each country as a source of investment in individual sectors and industries is examined. The paper concludes that this recent investment surge may yield net social benefits for Indonesia, provided the country continues to adhere to sound macroeconomic and export-promoting policies.     

Mises's dynamics of interventionism: Lessons from Indian agriculture

Despite trade liberalization, industrial delicensing, and deregulation in other sectors of the Indian economy since 1991, the agricultural sector is stifled by arbitrary, complex, and ever-increasing regulation in both input and product markets. This article resolves this puzzle of the Indian economy and, using Mises's theory of interventionism, explains the growth of regulation and subsidies in Indian agriculture. I argue that each intervention in agriculture created distortions in the market, necessitating the subsequent intervention in agricultural inputs and/or outputs. Land ceiling policies led to a large number of farmers with small and marginal landholdings. Attempts to increase agricultural productivity and income on small holdings led to interventions, and consequent distortions, in factor markets for seeds, fertilizer, electricity, water, credit, insurance, as well as in output markets in the form of minimum support prices. Indian agriculture policy serves as a cautionary tale of interventionism and needs systematic and comprehensive reforms.     

Distributive justice in Korean politics after the IMF Bailout∗

The Korean reform policy in the aftermath of the 1997 economic crisis has been confronted with the problem of distributive justice. In relation to distributive justice in the reform process, this paper addresses the communitarian‐liberal solution of ‘more burden on the better‐off, less burden on the worse‐off,’ which accords with the ‘difference principle’ of Rawls. This solution may be reasonably supported by all sectors of society for two reasons. One reason lies in the fact that the current social stratification in Korea has been largely affected by the economic policies of the past developmental state rather than individual choices, and that each individual sector, especially the advantaged group, has a weak legitimate claim over its social position. Thus, it seems fair to share the social burden in the extensive reform process according to the principle of capability. The other reason is based on the principle of minimizing social cost accruing from social economic conflict Indeed, this solution reflects a blend of liberal values and the good of the community.     

农业产业化经营与农业结构调整问题思考

农业结构的形成受宏观经济环境的制约和农业比较效益、农民收入预期的影响。对农业结构进行调整，不仅需要采取有效的宏观调控措施，而且要探索和建立一种有效的经营机制引导和带动农业结构的调整，以不断促进农业结构优化。文章拟就农业产业化经营机制对农业结构调整的作用及相关问题做一些分析和探讨。     

Pesticide use among emerging farmers in South Africa: contributing factors and stakeholder perspectives

The commercial agricultural sector in South Africa has historically been dominated by large-scale operations run by white owners and managers. In redressing this imbalance, black farmers classified as ‘emerging’ are being encouraged to engage in high-input agricultural production in order to obtain ‘commercial’ status. Since existing practices in commercial agriculture rely heavily on pesticides, emerging farmers aspiring to become commercial are pressured to adopt and/or increase the use of pesticides. However, problems of access to land, finances, resources, skills and markets overshadow the health and safety of these farmers and their labour force that may be affected by exposure to pesticides. This paper presents the results of a policy study based on primary interview data with key stakeholders and secondary documentary review data, to illustrate how pesticides are used in an occupational health and safety vacuum because the focus of key institutions is rather on economic productivity.     

中国非农产业的农业生产效应分析——基于Feder模型

文章借鉴Feder模型,构建非农产业和农业的两部门非均衡模型,并利用中国1981-2011年的宏观数据进行实证检验,结果显示,非农产业发展对农业生产具有拉动作用及溢出效应,且非农产业的要素边际生产率远远高于农业。因此,在实施工业反哺农业政策时,要充分考虑到小农户分散经营的特点,努力提高农业生产效率;同时也要考虑到非农产业的发展,积极发挥非农产业的农业生产的外溢效应,实现包容性增长。     

New agricultural development criteria: a proposal for project design and implementation

An environment conducive to a viable emerging agricultural sector is developing in South Africa, but it has yet to benefit most resource-poor producers. Some of the crucial constraints are accessibility and affordability of resources and services. Centrally managed agricultural projects as the main historical development model have largely failed to live up to the expectation that this would be the ‘cutting edge’ of development. This paper argues that the failure of these projects was partly due to four criteria for development not being sufficiently incorporated into project design and implementation: technical aspects of a project must be reconciled with social structures and realities; farmer diversity must be dealt with through focused support; business linkages must be structured and maintained; and skills development and participation must be institutionalised. Two of these criteria – dealing with diversity and facilitating participation – are elaborated on through a case study in the North West Province of South Africa. Typology analysis led to the identification of four distinct farmer types and this was followed by a Logical Framework planning process to develop a unique support strategy for each type. The objectives and activities required for each type are quantified. It is argued that this model, extending the project cycle to include the four new development criteria, constitutes a model for small farmer entrance into a competitive market.     

农业补贴政策影响及调整方向研究

本文深入研究了农业补贴政策对粮食供给总量安全、粮食供给结构安全以及农户总收入水平的影响效果。基于构建的农业DSGE模型,从宏微观结合的多方位视角考察了多种农业补贴政策以及政府一般性服务支持政策对农业生产要素资本积累水平、农户投入行为决策、农业生产力水平以及农户总收入的影响效果和传导路径,并在此基础上结合宏观经济数据的真实反馈分析,全面考察了核心经济变量在农业补贴政策实施期间的真实影响效果。研究结果显示：（1）农业补贴政策能够有效刺激农户对农业生产要素投入水平的提高,深层激发和释放了农业生产力;（2）农业补贴政策能够有效保证农户基本经营收入水平,并显著增加农户可支配转移净收入水平,对保障农户基本总收入起重要作用;（3）最低收购价和临时收储等托市价格政策会刺激农产品价格呈现上升趋势,并不利于农业种植结构不平衡的调节。     

‘Stop‐go’ policy and the restriction of postwar British house‐building

From the mid‐1950s to the early 1980s the Treasury and the Bank of England successfully advocated a policy of restricting both private and public sector house‐building, as a key but covert instrument of their wider ‘stop‐go’ macroeconomic policy framework. While the intensity of restrictions varied over the economic cycle, private house‐building was restricted (through limiting mortgage availability) for almost all this period. This was achieved by keeping building society interest rates low relative to other interest rates and thus starving the building society movement of mortgage funds. Mortgage restriction was never publicly discussed and sometimes operated alongside ambitious housing targets and well‐publicized policy initiatives to boost housing demand. This article outlines the evolution of house‐building restriction, together with its impacts on the housing sector and the wider economy. We review the evolution of the policy framework and its consequences, compare the level and stability of British house‐building during this period—historically and relative to other countries—and undertake time‐series econometric analysis of its impacts on both house‐building and house prices. Finally, implications for debates regarding stop‐go policy, Britain's housing problem, and the distributional consequences of government macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

我国城镇化的风险分析与对策

我国城镇化进程面临着资源风险、生态风险、农业风险和社会安全与稳定的风险,风险的症结在农村,化解风险的关键在政府有作为。文章认为,对农民工应"缓办户口,多发工钱",提高农民工的生活水平和支援农村的能力;在农业发展上,应聚集人才与推进农业规模化经营并重,走现代化农业之路;在城市建设中,应解决好建筑二步制施工与安全设防的问题。