Corporate Data and Future Cash Flows

Abstract:   This article examines the ability of current accounting data to explain future cash flows for UK firms, as disclosed under FRS1 (1991). Rather than examining price data — from which cash flow implications have to be inferred — we follow the more direct approach used in several recent US studies, in which actual future cash flow data are examined. Specifically, our methodology is a development of the OLS regression framework employed by Barth et al. (2001) . We provide a replication of their main OLS analysis, and then extend this to deal with fixed effects and time trends in the levels of cash flow data. Our study finds that the disaggregation of earnings into cash flows and accruals, generates superior explanatory power with regard to future cash flows.     

Glamour Acquirers, Method of Payment and Post‐acquisition Performance: The UK Evidence

We study the effect of different acquirer types, defined by financial status and their payment methods, on their short and long‐term performance, in terms of abnormal returns using a variety of benchmark models. For a sample of 519 UK acquirers during 1983–95, we examine the abnormal return performance of acquirers based on their pre‐bid financial status as either glamour or value acquirers using both the price to earnings (PE) ratio and market to book value ratio (MTBV). Value acquirers outperform glamour acquirers in the three‐year post‐acquisition period. One interpretation is that glamour firms have overvalued equity and tend to exploit their status and use it more often than cash to finance their acquisitions. As we move from glamour to value acquirers, there is a greater use of cash. Our results are broadly consistent with those for the US reported by Rau and Vermaelen (1998). However, in contrast to their study, we find stronger support for the method of payment hypothesis than for extrapolation hypothesis. Cash acquirers generate higher returns than equity acquirers, irrespective of their glamour/ value status. Our conclusions, based on four benchmark models for abnormal returns, suggest that stock markets in both the US and the UK may share a similar proclivity for over‐extrapolation of past performance, at least in the bid period. They also tend to reassess acquirer performance in the post‐acquisition period and correct this overextrapolation. These results have implications for the behavioural aspects of capital markets in both countries.     

Expected Accrual Models: The Impact of Operating Cash Flows and Reversals of Accruals

This paper augments the Jones (1991) model with operating cash flows and lagged accruals to evaluate the impact of (1) the negative association between accruals and concurrent cash flows, (2) the positive association between accruals and lagged cash flows, and (3) the reversal of accruals. I find that operating cash flows greatly improve the explanatory and predictive power of the Jones model; but, lagged accruals do not. A market test of the expected and unexpected components of accruals indicates that unexpected accruals are on average informative with respect to concurrent stock returns; however, the market does not fully understand the implications of accruals anticipated at the beginning of the return period.This paper has benefited from helpful comments and suggestions from Tae Hee Choi, In-Kyu Moon, and two anonymous reviewers on earlier versions of this paper. The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the Queens School of Business.     

CEO's Operating Ability and the Association between Accruals and Future Cash Flows

This study investigates whether an individual CEO's operating ability, operationalized as the extent to which an individual CEO utilizes the company's assets efficiently to generate profits, explains the association between accruals and future cash flows. While this mapping can be driven by both the quality of accounting measurement and CEO operating ability, there is little empirical evidence on the latter link. After controlling for the CEO's accounting estimation ability, we find that the association between current period accruals and future cash flows is stronger when the CEO demonstrates superior operating ability. This suggests that a CEO's operating ability is an important determinant of the informativeness of current accruals for future cash flows.     

The Usefulness of Direct and Indirect Cash Flow Disclosures

We investigate the ability of disclosed operating cash flow and indirect accruals components to explain annual returns for a sample of Australian firms. Consistent with claims made by accounting standard setters, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for disclosed operating cash flow components beyond aggregate operating cash flows when they also have significant incremental predictive power for future (one year ahead) operating cash flows. Accrual components also have incremental explanatory power for returns. In addition, we find evidence of significant explanatory power for operating cash flow components beyond estimates of the components (based on other financial statement disclosures) for firms with large differences between disclosed and estimated components.     

Capital Cash Flows,APV and Valuation

This paper examines three different methods of valuing companies and projects: the adjusted present value (APV), capital cash flows (CCF) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) methods. It develops the appropriate WACC and beta leveraging formulae appropriate for each valuation model, so that given a particular valuation model the correct APV and CCF values can be determined from the WACC value and vice versa. Further it goes on to show when the perpetuity formulae give poor estimates of the value of individual cash flows, even though the overall values are correct. The paper cautions that the APV and CCF models require more information than is currently known, such as the value of the corporate use of debt, and consequently can give misleading results, particularly in sensitivity analyses.     

The Impact of Mandated Cash Flow Disclosure on Bid‐Ask Spreads

Abstract:   This study provides evidence that mandatory cash flow disclosure required by Approved Australian Accounting Standard AASB 1026, Statement of Cash Flows (June 1992) was associated with a decline in bid‐ask spreads following the introduction of the regulation, even after controlling for changes in trading volume and price volatility. More pronounced decreases in bid‐ask spreads were associated with firms having lower correlations between reported CFO and estimates of CFO using balance sheet reconstructions. We conclude that mandatory cash flow disclosure reduces information asymmetry across market participants.     

The Incremental Information Content of Accruals: Evidence Based on the Exponential Smoothing of Levels and Trends in Pre-Tax Earnings, Funds Flow and Cash Flow

By arranging the accrual accounting identity as a hierarchy of market response models, this paper investigates whether current and noncurrent accruals have incremental information content beyond earnings. The results indicate that the increase in explanatory power attributable to funds flow and cash flow disclosure can be improved upon by estimating the surprises in reported numbers by exponentially weighting prior values. The unexpected information simplifies to the weighted sum of deviations from the estimated level and estimated trend. Further improvements are obtained by allowing components of the error to vary with time and by company in a non-autoregressive, homoscedastic pooling scheme which takes account of the joint presence of time series disturbance and cross sectional disturbance.     

The Association Between Operating Cash Flows and Dividend Changes: An Empirical Investigation

The Association between earnings and dividend changes has been established since Lintner's (1956) pioneering work. Subsequent research attempted to establish an association between operating cash flows and dividend changes, given earnings, without success (Simons, 1994). Recently, there has been increased attention in cash flow reporting. Regulatory bodies worldwide have stressed the significance of cash flow information in capital markets. Research on the association between cash flows and dividends has been limited, yielding inconclusive results. The purpose of this study is to re-evaluate and extend prior studies by examining the incremental ability of cash flows to explain dividend changes, given earnings. We argue that a positive relationship between cash flows and dividend changes should exist due to liquidity and accruals management considerations. The empirical evidence of this study supports that the dividend changes-cash flow relationship is significantly positive (a) when operating cash flows are low compared to earnings, and (b) when firm growth is moderate.     

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift and Market Participants' Information Processing Biases

Prior research has been unable to explain the phenomenon known as post-earnings announcement drift, raising questions concerning the semi-strong form efficiency of the market typically assumed in capital market research. This study contributes to our understanding of this anomaly by examining drift in the context of theories that consider investors' non-Bayesian behaviors. The empirical evidence reveals that investors' overconfidence about their private information and the reliability of the earnings information are two important factors that explain drift. Finally, this study also provides insight into the puzzling relationship between dispersion and drift discussed in prior research.     

Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information about Earnings,Accruals, Cash Flows,and Development?

This paper examines whether the stock prices of property and casualty (P&C) insurers fully reflect information contained in earnings, cash flows and accruals, and one particular accrual—development of loss reserves. The reserve for policy losses is a major accrual for P&C firms, requires substantial judgment and is the subject of unique disclosures that reveal the ex post error in management estimates. We find that investors underestimate the persistence of cash flows and overestimate the persistence of accruals for P&C insurers, but our evidence suggests the market does not underestimate the persistence of the development accrual.     

Stock Index‐linked Debt and Shareholder Value: Evidence from the Paris Bourse

French banks and non‐financial companies issue index‐linked debt whose value at maturity is indexed to the CAC 40 or to a basket of European indices. This paper examines stock announcement effects associated with these bonds on three dates: the date the issuer's General Assembly decides future capital needs, the publication in the journal of the COB (the stock market board), and the issue date. We find the issuance of index‐linked debt has significant positive announcement effects on the issue date, which we attribute to its market‐completion property. In order to examine further whether market completion is at play, we decompose the value of the bond at issue into its straight bond and option values. We determine that the bonds are overvalued again supporting market completion.     

Earnings quality,bankruptcy risk and future cash flows

Prior research suggests that the quality of accruals may be compromised where the magnitude of accruals is abnormally high, due to the presence of errors in the accruals‐estimation process (Dechow and Dichev, 2002; Richardson, 2003). A consequence of this is that abnormal accruals may not map into realised future cash flows to the extent that would normally be expected of accruals data. Indeed, the association may be insignificant if abnormal accruals consist primarily of estimation noise. Our study investigates whether abnormal accruals for UK firms provide incremental insight into future cash flows. In particular, our paper may be viewed as a development of Subramanyam (1996). We find a significant positive association between abnormal accruals and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows. This provides a rationale for the pricing of abnormal accruals by the market (Subramanyam, 1996; Xie, 2001) and suggests that abnormal accruals are not merely the products of noise in the accruals‐estimation process. However, our results are conditional upon the probability of one‐year‐ahead bankruptcy risk (Charitou et al., 2004). We also find that abnormal accruals possess small but significant explanatory power for future cash flows even when controlling for the disaggregation of accruals into individual items (Barth et al., 2001).     

Post–earnings–announcement Drift in the UK

This paper fills a void in the market efficiency literature by testing for the presence of post–earnings–announcement drift in a non–US market. We test for drift using alternative earnings surprise measures based on: (i) the time–series of earnings; (ii) market prices; and (iii) analyst forecasts. Using each of the measures we find evidence of significant post–earnings–announcement drift, robust to alternative controls for risk and market microstructure effects. Using a one–dimensional analysis, the price–based measure of earnings surprise gives the strongest drift, and using a two–dimensional analysis the drift associated with the price–based measure almost subsumes drift associated with the other two measures. Our conclusion is that the UK stock market is inefficient with respect to publicly available corporate earnings information. This evidence provides out–of–sample confirmation of the post–earnings–announcement drift documented in the USA.     

The Relation Between SFAS No. 95 Cash Flows From Operations and Credit Risk

This study examines the relevance of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 95 operating cash flow disclosures for assessing a primary component of firm risk, namely credit risk. We find that SFAS No. 95 operating cash flows is an important determinant of credit risk, measured by debt ratings, incremental to other profitability and risk–related information. We also find that operating cash flows have a stronger incremental relation to credit risk for firms with a larger proportion of long–term debt and larger firms with lower operating uncertainty. Interestingly, cash flows appear to have less incremental importance for firms in high tech and regulated industries.     

Post‐Earnings Announcement Drift: Bounds on Profitability for the Marginal Investor

The persistence of the post‐earnings announcement drift (PEAD) leads many to believe that trading barriers prevent investors from eliminating it. We examine two factors that have not been adequately addressed by the literature: the exact timing of earnings announcements and liquidity costs. Under a wide range of timing and cost assumptions, our results leave little doubt that over our sample period the PEAD was highly profitable after trading costs. An additional incremental investor could have earned hedged‐portfolio returns of at least 14% per year after trading costs. Over our sample period, investors did indeed leave money on the table.     

The Incremental Information Content of Earnings and Cash Flows from Operations Affected by Their Extremity

Previous returns studies have shown that extreme earnings and extreme cash flows from operations are less informative than moderate (i.e., less extreme) earnings and moderate cash flows. Studies also report that cash flows supplement to earnings in firm valuation by showing a higher association of cash flows with returns when earnings are extreme than when earnings are moderate. We propose that this supplementary role of cash flows is affected by cash flows extremity. Using data from the US capital markets, we find that the supplementary role of cash flows exists only when cash flows are not extreme. We also investigate the supplementary role of earnings to cash flows and search for a higher association of earnings with returns when cash flows are extreme than when cash flows are moderate. Similar to results on cash flows, our findings show that the supplementary role of earnings exists only when earnings are not extreme. Our results imply that investors and researchers should consider both earnings and cash flows extremity when assessing the information content of these variables.     

Write‐Down Timeliness, Line‐of‐Business Disclosures and Investors' Interpretations of Segment Divestiture Announcements

Abstract:   This paper examines investors' anticipation and subsequent interpretations of asset write‐downs accompanying segment divestitures. Examining long‐window returns cumulated over the two years preceding the year of divestiture, we hypothesize and find that investors anticipate write‐downs of segment operating assets before divestiture and recognition occurs, with anticipation conditional on the timeliness of the write‐down and prior disclosure of the segments' operating results under segment reporting rules. Short‐window returns cumulated over the three days surrounding the announcement of the divestiture confirm that investor interpretations of asset write‐downs are similarly contingent on write‐down timeliness and prior disclosure.     

Auditor quality effects on the relationship between accruals,cash flows and equity returns: a variance decomposition analysis

In this paper, we examine the relative importance of the cash flow and accruals components of earnings in explaining the variation in UK company equity returns, together with the extent to which these relationships vary by auditor quality. We use a multivariate time-series approach that can be reconciled to a log-linear theoretical valuation model and, unlike the standard linear regression of returns on earnings components, accommodates time-varying discount rates. Based on a decomposition of the variance of equity returns, cash flows and accruals, our results indicate that both cash flow news and accruals news are important drivers of UK equity returns, although cash flows are more influential than accruals. We also find that variation in both earnings components has a more significant effect on returns for clients of large auditors. Finally, our results provide mixed evidence on the question of whether the impact of auditor quality is highest for the accruals component of earnings.