Apparent consumption of caloric sweeteners increased after the implementation of NAFTA in Mexico

The consumption of sugar and sweeteners have been associated with obesity and diabetes, which are public health problems in Mexico. Since 1994, imports of sweeteners for the elaboration of ultra-processed food and beverages increased in the country. This increase in imports may have increased the apparent consumption of sweeteners which could be associated with the implementation of the NAFTA that gradually eliminated tariffs on sugars. However, no study has estimated trends in apparent consumption by type of sugar, and its association with NAFTA in Mexico. Therefore, we analyzed trends in apparent consumption of sugar and sweeteners, and its contribution to energy from 1961 to 2013. We assessed if the gradual implementation of NAFTA in 1994, 1998, 2003 and 2008 was associated with changes in the consumption of sugar and sweeteners in Mexico using the Food Balance Sheet data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. We estimated an interrupted time series analysis with synthetic controls using OECD countries, to assess the association between NAFTA and changes in the type of sugar consumed. We found that between 1961 and 2013, the contribution of sugars to daily energy increased from 243 to 456 (243 to 456 kcal/capita/day). Until 1993, the consumption of sweeteners was 0.20 kg/capita/year and in 2013 reached 12.9 kg/capita/year, representing 20% of total sugar consumption. The consumption of sweeteners increased 2.93 kcal/capita/day after the NAFTA was implemented in 1994. However, there was a reduction in apparent consumption of −2.95 kcal/capita/day between 1998 and 2002, concurrent with the implementation of a 12.5% ad valorem compensatory duty to high fructose corn syrup imports from the US. Consumption increased again 7.7 kcal/capita/day between 2003 and 2007 and up to 10.4 kcal/capita/day after 2008 when the NAFTA was fully implemented. We found a significant increase in the apparent consumption of sweeteners associated with NAFTA but we did not find a conclusive evidence when we estimates total sugars and sweeteners together because we lacked an adequate control group. Sweeteners are mainly used for producing beverages and processed food, so its consumption should be discouraged by improving the existing package of interventions in Mexico, including a 20–30% increase to current taxes that have proven to be effective to reduce sugar sweetened beverages and nonessential energy dense food but whose existing rates are relatively small; improving front of package labelling, monitoring compliance in school regulations for food and beverages sold and improving marketing regulations directed to children.     

Farm subsidies and obesity in the United States: National evidence and international comparisons

Many commentators have claimed that farm subsidies have contributed significantly to the “obesity epidemic” by making fattening foods relatively cheap and abundant. But U.S. farm policies have generally small and mixed effects on farm commodity prices, which in turn have even smaller and still mixed effects on the relative prices of more- and less-fattening foods. Other factors have had much more influence on reducing the farm prices of food commodities and the consumer prices of food such that any effects of U.S. farm policies on U.S. obesity patterns must have been negligible. Moreover, while many arguments can be made for changing U.S. farm subsidies, even entirely eliminating the current programs could not be expected to have a significant influence on obesity rates. International evidence reinforces this finding. The countries that support their farmers most strongly tend to have relatively low obesity rates. In these countries the main support for farmers comes through trade barriers and higher consumer prices, which—like U.S. policies for sugar, dairy, orange juice, and beef—discourage consumption and reduce obesity. In contrast with agricultural subsidies, agricultural R&D has had a significant effect in the past on the relative price of food commodities and food, and has the potential to influence obesity patterns in the future, but R&D policy is a very blunt instrument for pursuing public health policy objectives.     

Foreign—domestic intersections in US food policy

This essay probes the major points. of intersection between US domestic and foreign policies in the realm of food and agriculture. Five issue areas are of specific interest: the farm income/consumer price/food supply matrix; international agricultural trade relations; economic, strategic, and diplomatic applications of food resources; LDC agricultural development and global food security; and food assistance.     

Stabilizing food markets in eastern and southern Africa

A major challenge for agricultural policy in Africa is how to address the market instability-related causes of low farm productivity and food insecurity. This paper highlights structural changes affecting the behavior of food markets in eastern and southern Africa and discusses their implications for the design of strategies to stabilize food prices. These changes include (1) an increasing trend in maize prices toward import parity levels, reflecting an emerging structural maize deficit in much of the region; (2) increasingly diversified food consumption patterns in both rural and urban areas; (3) highly concentrated marketed maize surplus, which have largely unrecognized implications for the magnitude of price risk faced by most farm households; and (4) the strategic interactions between private and public marketing actors leading in some cases to heightened market instability and food crises. In the prevailing dual market environment now characterizing most of the region, greater coordination, transparency, and consultation between private and public market actors is needed to achieve reasonable levels of food price stability and predictability.     

New concerns on caffeine consumption and the impact of potential regulations: The case of energy drinks

The increasing consumption of energy drinks and caffeine added products, coupled with somewhat inconsistent labeling practices, has generated health concerns from possible excessive caffeine intake. In this paper, we simulate the impacts of potential caffeine content regulatory policies on demand for energy drinks as well as caffeine and sugar consumption. We model demand for energy drinks as a function of price and product characteristics that includes both caffeine levels and the presence of labeled caffeine content. Using our demand estimation results, we simulate the impact of potential policies including mandatory caffeine content labeling, advertising restriction and caffeine content regulations. Results indicate that mandatory labeling and advertising restrictions would reduce the overall sales in the energy drinks sector, but with a limited impact. The effect of caffeine content regulation would vary depending on whether the policy is implemented on a per-ounce basis or a per-can basis. Furthermore, these policies have different impacts on sugar and caffeine consumption, and therefore policymakers should be cautious when implementing caffeine regulations.     

Socio-economic characteristics and the effect of taxation as a health policy instrument

This paper analyses the quantitative effects of using economic instruments in health policy on the basis of price elasticities calculated from estimated demand systems. The nutritional effects of various taxation schemes are compared for households in different age groups and social classes. Focusing on the consumption of saturated fats, fibre and sugar; it is generally found that the impact of price instruments is stronger for lower social classes than in other groups of the population. With regard to age groups, it is mostly the youngest that decrease their demand for saturated fat in response to price changes, while it is mostly the middle-aged who exhibit price responsiveness in their demand for sugar. These groups are however not considered as key target groups for dietary regulation; thus tax instruments may be effective in improving diets on average, but the design of the instruments and the targeting of vulnerable groups with special needs should be done with care. It should be noted that a tax on a single nutrient or food may have undesired effects on the demand for other food components, though this may be avoided by introducing taxes/subsidies on several food products simultaneously.     

The new US farm policies

This article is an early assessment of the agricultural policies of the Carter administration, particularly as they relate to Western Europe. The author examines emerging US farm policy with regard to: price and production, grain reserves, attitude toward the Common Agricultural Policy of the EEC, trade in agricultural products, and commodity agreements.     

Food product composition,consumer health,and public policy: Introduction and overview of special section

As efforts to improve diets in high income countries intensify, attention has turned to how policies may influence diet composition. The case studies in this special issue contribute to our understanding of how two main types of policies have influenced food product composition and dietary outcomes: (1) policies affecting food manufacturers’ input costs and (2) information policy affecting competition. Research on the first type of policy is relatively new, but suggests that US commodity policies would not be good policy instruments to influence diets, except through the long run impacts of agricultural research. Research on the impacts of information policy continues to demonstrate that it can spur food industry competition to introduce healthier products, but may not result in healthier diets. International comparisons show where the US experience may have relevance for other high income countries.     

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.     

Effects of agricultural market policy on crop production in China

This paper investigates the effects of Chinese market policy on crop production in the reform process. After a brief review of the policy changes due to the reform, the theoretical significance of Chinese market policies for crop production is demonstrated diagrammatically. It is shown that under the current market system the production of main crops is significantly influenced by both market and quota prices. While relatively high quota reduces the influence of market prices on production, relative price changes between competing crops will lead to shifting farmers’ cultivation preferences if inputs are constant. Empirical analysis, based on cross-section data for the period 1985–1997 from the province of Zhejiang, confirms these hypotheses. The effects of policy variables, however, prove to be crop-specific. If the potential of crop production in China is to be better used, an even more market-oriented agricultural policy is required.     

Rice market integration and food security in Nepal: The role of cross-border trade with India

Coarse rice market integration between Nepal and India is analyzed applying a threshold autoregressive model. The price response behaviour of traders is found to be consistent with an asymmetric price adjustment mechanism, indicating coarse rice prices in Nepal respond to shocks originating in India. The results show that adjustments to negative price deviations from long-run stable equilibrium are faster than adjustments to the positive ones given a null threshold. Given that trade flows mainly from India to Nepal, Nepali traders would adjust their prices upward to align with the long-run equilibrium value relatively more quickly in the case of negative price deviations, than if the price deviations were positive. Such a high speed of adjustment to negative price deviations could be detrimental to net food buyers’ food security status in the absence of a price stabilization mechanism. However, a price stabilization policy in Nepal, a food deficit and import dependent country, would hardly have any effect on prices unless further effort is made to build up the level of national food reserves for short-term food security interventions. In the current context of structurally low levels of national food reserves, an alternative short-term policy such as foreign aid, in the form of food or income transfers, targeting the most vulnerable households to price increases is necessary through social safety net programmes. In the long-run, an improvement of transportation infrastructure between market hubs (other than the Biratnagar trade basin) in the Terai (Nepal) and India would contribute to the reduction of transaction costs and create incentives for more competition in formal cross-border trade with India. In times of negative shocks such as the high food price crisis in 2008, restrictive food trade policies in India will continue to undermine household food security in Nepal.     

2011年国内外油气财税政策综述

2011年,国际油价总体呈现高位震荡的态势,重点资源国继续调整财税政策,加大对油气资源的控制力度;部分消费国下调消费环节税负以应对高油价;一些发达国家出台碳税,以减少对化石能源的使用;美国则继续运用财税政策调节国内油气生产与消费。2011年,我国全面实施资源税改革,完善相关政策法规,同时针对国内油气生产、天然气进口和企业国际化经营等出台了一系列税收优惠政策和措施。“十二五”期间,我国将继续推进税制改革,扩大增值税征收范围,调整消费税征收范围和征税环节,完善企业所得税制度,全面改革资源税,开征环境保护税。     

US and EEC agricultural trade policies: A long-run view of the present conflict

This paper traces post-war agricultural policy in the USA and compares it with the developing policies of the EEC. It examines the reasons for, and the results of, the protectionist policies which have been adopted in each case, and how the present conflict between the two trading blocs were inevitable, due to the foundations laid in the 1950s. The grain sector is used to illustrate the dominant tendencies in US agricultural policies, which include a programme of food aid used as an outlet for US agricultural capacity. The conclusion outlines how the EEC, with its potential for further growth in grain exports, can learn from the US experience in this, and other, aspects of agricultural trade.     

A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach

Food subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several “food crises” (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban).     

Likely effects on obesity from proposed changes to the US food stamp program

Some have suggested that the US food stamp program (FSP) should be revised with a view to combating obesity among the poor. In this paper, we assess the likely impacts of allowing FSP participants to purchase only healthy foods when using food stamps. Our results indicate that FSP participants would probably increase their consumption of healthy food, but the implications for their purchases of unhealthy food are not clear. Market-wide consequences are even less clear, because changing what may be purchased using food stamps would lead to higher prices for healthy foods and lower prices for unhealthy foods and these price effects would feed back into consumer decisions, with adverse effects on consumption patterns of both participants and non-participants in the FSP. In addition, more restrictive rules on the use of food stamps would discourage participation in the FSP. We conclude that, while reforming the FSP may indeed to lead to better diets among participants, it is likely to be an ineffective and inefficient instrument for bringing about desired nutritional outcomes unless accompanied by additional policy instruments.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

The three US food policies: An ideological interpretation

Historically, and notably so since 1933, three ideologies have been evident, and in conflict, in the farmfood policies of the USA. The gradual transformation of US agriculture since World War II into an agribusiness industry, and into the dominant world food exporter, has necessitated the modernising of these three ideologies. How the new food politics of the Carter Administration will differ from those of the Nixon-Ford Administration is of worldwide concern. Whether the new food policy ‘agenda’ will be aggressively committed to the development of a neo-Jeffersonian food ideology will be a major US political issue in 1977.