引入货币政策变量的中国利率期限结构模型实证研究

金融学者对利率期限结构的微观视角与经济学者对期限结构问题的宏观把握是当前我国乃至世界利率期限结构理论研究的重要特点,如何将这些特点相互结合,处理好宏观政策变量影响下的利率期限结构微观研究问题具有十分重要的意义。本文在纵向上以利率期限结构理论的时间演进为研究主线,首先回顾了利率期限结构问题研究的历史和现状,接下来对货币政策相关变量影响下的现代利率期限结构理论进行了探讨,并针对我国债券市场人为分割的现状,结合银行间债券市场数据进行了实证检验,最后得出本文的结论。     

宏观经济对利率期限结构的动态影响研究

本文通过结构VAR模型发现宏观经济冲击对各期限利率水平产生显著的影响,但不同类型的冲击产生的影响不同：与成熟市场相似,90％以上的利率曲线变化可以由水平、倾斜和曲度因素来解释,且更多表现为平行移动;利用脉冲反应和方差分解,发现价格水平对水平因素的影响最大,而货币政策变化是倾斜因素和曲度因素变化的主要原因,这既体现了央行货币政策操作的有效性,也表明现阶段银行间市场利率期限结构的信息敏感性。这与成熟市场的表现是非常相似的。     

中国国债利率期限结构突变与动因分析——基于无套利宏观金融模型的视角

已有研究表明中国宏观经济和金融市场近20年来表现出区制转换和非线性特征,在此背景下国债市场是否也存在结构性变化,将关系到利率模型的稳定性和经济政策的效果。文章基于未知间断点的结构突变方法实证检验2002年到2015年间中国国债利率期限结构,并通过把新凯恩斯动态一般均衡框架嵌入仿射无套利期限结构模型中,解释突变的宏观动因。结果认为,受2005年金融市场一系列重大改革的累积和联动影响,中国国债利率期限结构于2005年11月发生了显著的结构变化;间断后由于市场风险水平降低,货币政策波动性减小,所以利率偏离预期假说的程度锐减;与货币政策相关的斜率因子风险价格的减小是突变的关键动因。     

利率与公司债务期限结构的实证研究——基于制造业的经验分析

文章选取2005-2012年A股制造业公司的非平衡面板数据,通过固定效应模型和随机效应模型实证检验了利率与企业债务期限结构之间的关系。结果表明,名义利率越高,债务融资成本越大,上市公司会使用更多的短期债务,债务期限结构越短;通货膨胀率越高,债务融资的代理成本会越大,上市公司获得长期债务的难度较大,因而会使用较多的短期债务,债务期限结构越短;实际利率对债务期限结构的影响方向与名义利率相反:实际利率越高,上市公司使用更多的长期债务,债务期限结构越长。进一步的研究发现,相较于民营企业,国有企业对利率的敏感度更高;无论是国有企业还是民营企业,对名义利率的敏感度均比实际利率高。文章为宏观政策如何影响微观企业债务结构提供了新的经验证据。     

我国商业银行使用利率衍生品的动因研究——基于资产负债期限错配视角的经验证据

国外研究表明商业银行资产负债期限错配对利率衍生品使用存在正向影响。然而，以我国16家上市商业银行作为实证样本，分析了2006—2012年共计179组半年度数据后却发现，无论是整体资产负债的期限错配还是不同期限结构的期限错配均对利率衍生品使用产生了负效应，进一步的研究还显示出这种负效应无论在规模上还是显著性水平上均与期限错配的期限结构存在正相关性，本文尝试从我国特有的金融体系出发对实证结果进行解释，最后也提出了相关的政策建议。     

试论中国利率政策的传导效果

货币政策传导机制是货币政策的核心内容,直接关系到货币政策如何对实质经济产生作用,而利率手段是政府调控经济的重要工具,世界主要经济体都频繁调节利率。长期以来,中国货币政策的传导途径单一,主要局限于传统的银行信贷渠道,而信贷传导是以金融市场存在缺陷为前提的,利率传导机制发挥作用的基础是发达的金融市场,因此随着金融市场的发展,利率在中国货币政蓑传导中的作用将越来越重要。本文在借鉴和吸收前人研究成果的基础上,采用了理论性研究和实证研究相结合的方法,构建了关于货币政策利率传导机制有效性研究的合理的分析框架。文章首先介绍了西方货币政策利率理论,着重分析了这些理论发挥作用的途径和模式;其次,对中国货币政策利率传导机制进行了实证分析;接着针对中国利率传导机制表现出的独特现象提出了政策建议。     

中国主要宏观经济变量与利率期限结构的关系:基于VAR-ATSM模型的分析

本文利用VAR-ATSM模型对中国利率期限结构与经济增长、通货膨胀和利率的相互关系进行分析。研究结果表明,在不同期限利差中,较长期利率利差对经济增长率和通货膨胀率的短期预测能力较弱,而中长期预测能力较强。不同期限利差均对短期利率具有较强的短期预测能力,时期越短,预测能力越强。经济增长、通货膨胀和短期利率冲击对不同期限利率在短、中期内产生正向影响。经济增长和短期利率冲击对不同期限利差产生负向影响,而通货膨胀冲击对不同期限利差产生正向影响。     

我国商业银行期限错配问题原因分析

银行存贷款期限匹配一直被业界人士所关注。本文从近几年的利率期限结构与存贷款期限结构角度分析目前我国商业银行存贷款期限错配问题,再根据相关理论和现象说明其原因,进一步证明商业银行因存贷款期限错配而产生的潜在的流动性风险。     

欧洲货币利率的期限结构理论

欧洲货币利率的期限结构理论是西方经济学家对欧洲货币市场进行理论研究的一个部分,也是把西方经济学中关于利率期限的理论直接运用于欧洲货币市场的结果。而存在于欧洲货币市场的多种货币间的套利行为,使欧洲货币利率期限结构的研究与汇率期限结构的研究相结合。     

利率、利率期限结构与中小企业融资难分析

我国中小企业一直面临着融资难的发展瓶颈。中小企业融资难主要是难在融资渠道上。中小企业融资难的原因有表面原因,也有内在原因。利率与利率期限结构与企业融资难有很大的关系。本文通过研究利率与企业融资难和利率的期限结构与企业融资难的关系,通过三者之间的关系揭示了中小企业融资难的本质原因。最后,给出了解决中小企业融资难的政策建议。     

Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya

This paper analyses the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g. T‐bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward‐looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forwardlooking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short‐term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.     

Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields

I construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with endogenous regime shifts and apply it to Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. This model subjects the short-term interest rate to monetary regime shifts, specifically a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and normal regimes, which depend on macroeconomic variables. The estimates show that under the ZIRP regime, the effect of deflation (inflation) on lowering (raising) bond yields amplifies on the long end of yield curves, compared with a case with positive interest rates under the normal regime. On the other hand, output gaps’ ability to raise bond yields weakens for all maturities.     

含跳跃过程单因子利率模型的估计——基于中国国债回购利率的实证分析

在CKLS模型的基础上,我们提出了一个加入跳跃过程的单因子利率期限结构模型。通过对我国国债回购利率的实证检验,发现加入跳跃过程后,模型不但能更好地拟合实际数据．而且揭示了利率均值回复和水平效应的部分原因,从而增强了模型的解释能力。     

The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan

Many studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread—the difference between long- and short-term interest rates—has information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to monetary policy or not by using Japanese monthly data with consideration for structural changes. Results of structural change tests show that the term spread has predictive ability for the future economic activity from 1982:4 to 1997:8. Decomposing the term spread into three parts; one is explained by past monetary policy shocks, another is explained by expected future call rates and the other is the remaining part, we find that all three parts are significantly related to the future economic growth rate. Hence, we find that the monetary policy plays an important role for the LIPTS.     

2001～2006年日本量化宽松货币政策下汇率传递效应分析

日本经济长期陷入通货紧缩和日元升值而停滞不前,2001～2006年日本开创性地实施量化宽松货币政策以实现经济复苏。研究日本量化宽松货币政策下汇率传递效应问题,对于当前实践量化宽松货币政策的国家如何完善政策协调及提高政策效果有着重要的现实意义。本文基于日本月度数据展开实证,首先运用协整技术和VEC模型分非量化宽松货币政策和量化宽松货币政策两阶段来研究日元汇率传递效应的程度和变化趋势,再运用EG两步法和OLS来估算量化货币政策与国内物价之间的相关性。结果表明,量化宽松货币政策下日元汇率传递效应大大降低,这与货币当局致力于稳定通货膨胀水平密切相关。     

Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded restrictions: An application to Thailand

This paper studies the effect of monetary policy in Thailand based on structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Unlike all existing studies, this paper (i) properly controls for external factors, (ii) uses the identifying restrictions which are specified and justified from empirical evidence and (iii) studies the immediate as well as the short term effect of monetary policy. I find that several important stylized facts on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy need to be revised.     

Interest Rate Pass‐through in Malawi: Implications for the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

This study investigates the interest rate pass‐through in Malawi and its implications on monetary policy effectiveness. Using the cost‐of‐funds approach and monthly data from 2009 to 2015, an autoregressive distributed lag model is fitted. Results show that there is a near complete pass‐through to the lending rate but not the savings rate. The magnitude of the pass‐through is relatively higher under smaller banks. The results suggest that the structure of the banking industry matters. Market power is important in understanding the variation in lending and savings rates across banks. Overall, short‐term rates as operating targets are consistent with inflation targeting in Malawi.     

An empirical analysis on the effects of the inflation targeting framework on monetary policy in South Africa

This article examines the impact of the adoption of an Inflation Targeting (IT) framework in 2000 on the conduct of South Africa’s monetary policy. Taylor rule analysis is used to test empirically whether the implementation of IT in South Africa can be shown to have impacted on the conduct of monetary policy. In particular, the article analyses whether the implementation of the IT framework yields the expected changes when comparing the conduct of monetary policy pre and post the adoption of the IT framework. Thereafter, an analysis of term structure of interest rates, which serve as a proxy variable for market expectations, is used to test whether South Africa’s IT framework has resulted in more predictability and transparency in monetary policy conduct. Lastly, the article analyses the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, the so‐called Great Recession, on the predictability and transparency of monetary policy in South Africa.     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.