The Impact of the Fuel and Energy Complex on the Economic Development of Russia

Using input-output analysis, the article considers possible ways to use the potential of the fuel and energy complex to implement structural and technological modernization of the Russian economy. Positive effects from changing the operational mode of the fuel and energy complex towards a solvent consumer of competitive domestic products in the context of import substitution processes, as well as a source of relatively cheap energy sources for domestic producers, are estimated.     

World energy forecast and consequences for Russia

This article reviews the results of the second Russian forecast of world energy development by 2040, threats to the Russian economy and energy development as a result of transformations in world energy markets, and ways to eliminate them.     

On the role of the fuel-and-energy complex in the Russian economy

The role of the fuel-and-energy complex (FEC) in the Russian economy has been described and A quantitative assessment of the impact of key parameters of the fuel-and-energy complex sectors on the volume and dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators has been provided. In particular, the sensitivity of the GDP growth to changes in energy exports has been analyzed.     

The Green Factor of Economic Growth in Russia and the World

The article discusses the role of environmental and climate factors in the modernization of the global and Russian economies in the context of the challenges presented by the new industrial revolution. It is emphasized that a restraining effect of these factors on economic growth is primarily caused by qualitative characteristics of technologies used for resource utilization and the adaptation of population and facilities to global climate changes. The article considers a growing urgency of eco-innovations, as well as “green” technologies overall, as a factor affecting the economic growth and modernization of the economy; the unevenness of the development of these technologies in the countries of the world; and strategic risks of Russia’s lagging behind the leading world economies in this area. A special emphasis is placed upon (i) a substantiation of the significance of the mineral, raw material and fuel and energy complexes, as well as the forest-industryl and agro-industrial complex, as priority sectors for the development eco-innovations and green technologies in Russia and (ii) arguing that in Russian conditions a long-term development policy is in essence a strategy for green economic growth.     

Eliminating contradictions in the domestic metals market under crisis conditions

The influence of foreign trade policy on the development of Russian metallurgy increased from 1990 to 2000. The 2008–2009 crisis makes it possible to critique the achieved results and what consequences metallurgical companies’ orientation toward export has had on Russia’s domestic metals market and the circulation of metal. Alternatives are considered for possible development of metallurgy as affected by the basic trends of metal and capital in the world and domestic markets.     

Can a rapidly growing export-oriented economy exit smoothly from a currency peg? Lessons from Japan’s high-growth era

We analyze the impact of Japan’s exit from its currency peg in 1971. We identify sizeable effects on Japanese exports and investment but find that the negative impacts on the economy were neutralized by strong global demand and domestic fiscal support. While our analysis suggests that a rapidly-growing, export-oriented economy can exit a peg for a managed float despite the presence of capital controls and the absence of sophisticated foreign currency forward markets, it underscores the importance of exiting while global conditions are favorable and points to the importance of using fiscal policy to support domestic demand as the rise in the real exchange rate slows the growth of net exports and investment.     

Grain market in Russia: From crisis to revival

This paper discusses some issues and trends in the world and Russian grain markets; the possible prospects for the development of domestic grain production and the ways of improving the tools for its support and regulation are investigated.     

转型后俄罗斯资本市场的演进分析

俄罗斯资本市场在短短十几年的时间里,走过了成熟市场国家数十年的历程,其中既有股指高涨、曾经位居世界第一的辉煌,也有资本市场崩溃、甚至导致国债市场一度关闭的低谷。文章通过对俄罗斯资本市场演进的回顾,总结并分析了资本市场发展的特征,不仅有助于加深对俄罗斯资本市场的认识,而且对转型市场经济国家具有现实的借鉴意义。     

Modeling Russia’s exchange rate in the long-run

This paper investigates long-run behavior of Russian real effective exchange rate. Due to high dependence on natural resources’ exports and, at the same time, absence of stable domestic policy, unexpected and/or excessive changes in the real exchange rate might negatively affect the Russian economy, causing large welfare costs. Since the determinants as well the causal links to different fundamental determinants are not straightforward, we employ the Johansen cointegration framework in order to determine factors that drive real exchanges rate in the long run. Compared to previous research on the Russian exchange rate, we expand the period of observations and construct potential determinants in a not traditional way, but as differences between domestic and foreign variables. This proceeding might also be relevant for researches, dedicated to another countries’ exchange rates.     

The problem of reducing the dependence of the Russian economy on primary product exports and economic policy alternatives

This paper discusses the causes and consequences of the high dependence of Russia’s socioeconomic development on the world market prices of hydrocarbon resources and their production volumes. The author analyzed the mechanisms underlying this dependency using a model of centrally planned economy without technical progress. The author shows that growth in raw materials production and prices leads to the “Dutch disease,” which is, hence, an economic growth paradox typical of open economies and having a resource-technological and structural character. The author’s conclusion is that welfare growth opportunities are underutilized under Dutch disease conditions in case of government restrictions on primary product exports aimed at conserving the trading sector. The case is made for increasing labor productivity in the Russian economy in order to overcome its dependence on the oil and gas exports.     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.     

Key Tasks and Development Prospects for the Russian Economy in the Context of Kondratiev’s Long Cycles

The rationale behind the key tasks in the development of Russia’s fuel and energy complex, agroindustrial complex, defense industry, and machinery industry and construction complexes has been presented using the apparatus of Kondratiev’s long cycles, i.e., upward and downward waves in the production and export of oil, grain, arms, cars, etc. as well as in the supply of new housing. The trends have been analyzed using Rosstat data for a 100-year period. The analysis has shown how the past rates of development and proportions affect the present and future growth of Russia’s economy. Some of the main tasks have been formulated for the future development of Russia’s economy until 2030. The processes of import substitution and the replacement of oil exports with grain, arms, and cars have been discussed. The issue of the social and economic significance of solving the housing problem in Russia has been raised.     

Survey of recent developments

The Indonesian economy is maintaining its momentum at a time of ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and slowing economic growth in China. Strong domestic demand saw output grow by 6.4% over the year to June, despite a steep fall in net exports. Inflation is safely within Bank Indonesia's target range, although food prices have increased relatively quickly. The current account deficit widened to 3.1% of GDP in the June quarter due to continued growth in imports and falling prices for commodity exports. The trade environment has deteriorated in 2012, and new divestment and domestic processing requirements are likely to further reduce investor interest in the mining sector.

President Yudhoyono has recently made several speeches calling for a ‘green growth agenda’. Some progress has been seen in slowing deforestation and in establishing mechanisms for facilitating payments to reduce emissions from deforestation, but loss of natural forests remains rapid. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy are growing quickly, stoked by increasing use of coal. The proposed 2013 budget continues to be heavily burdened by energy subsidies, which encourage over-consumption of fossil fuels. In most respects, therefore, the business-asusual trajectory of the Indonesian economy is unlikely to be particularly green.

A barrier to subsidy reform is its perceived unpopularity, including the threat of public protests such as those witnessed in March. To gauge current opinion we carried out a survey of Jakarta-based university students. The results indicated majority support for the removal of fuel subsidies, but some respondents said they would protest against fuel subsidy reductions, highlighting the politically sensitive nature of the issue.

Indonesia has witnessed booms in the coal and palm oil sectors in recent years, becoming the world's largest exporter of both commodities. We review the benefits from these two booms and the tensions between the development of these sectors and environmental goals. We also review the tourism sector, which remains relatively under-developed outside Bali. Tourism is a potential source of long-run growth that may be aligned with a green economy. The development of the sector would be aided by infrastructure improvements and a renewed focus on the conservation of natural assets.     

Trade in the shadow of power: Japanese industrial exports in the interwar years

During the interwar years, Japanese industrialization accelerated alongside the expansion of industrial exports to regional markets. Trade blocs in the interwar years were used as an instrument of imperial power to foster exports and as a substitute for productivity to encourage industrial production. The historiography on Japanese industrialization in the interwar years describes heavy industries’ interests in obtaining access to wider markets to increase economies of scale and reduce unit costs. However, this literature provides no quantitative evidence that proves the success of those mechanisms in expanding exports. In this article we scrutinize how Japan—a relatively poor country—used colonial as well as informal power interventions to expand regional markets for its exports, especially for the most intensive human capital sector of the industrializing economy. Our results show that Japanese exports in 1938 would have been around one-third smaller had no empire ever existed, which indicates an outstanding effect of empire in the international context.     

European policy of the diversification of natural gas supplies (in the case of Lithuania) and consequences for Russian gas exports

This article analyzes the influence of the strategy for diversification of natural gas suppliers, proclaimed by the European Union, on the economy of an importer country and studies the prospects of development for Russian natural gas exports. Studying the case of Lithuania as an example, which simultaneously imports Russian gas and transfers it to Kaliningrad Oblast, opportunities and prospects for implementing the policy of diversifying exporters have been considered. The directions of policy adjustment for Russian gas exports under varying conditions have been discussed.     

Energy cooperation between Russia and Northeast Asian countries: Prerequisities,directions and problems

The paper deals with prerequisites, conditions, problems and directions of energy cooperation between Russia and Northeast Asian (NEA) countries. It describes a transition period of the Russian economy, shows the significance of the Eastern energy policy of Russia, and the role the fuel and energy potential of the Eastern regions of Russia can play in its implementation. Prediction of the economy and energy development in the eastern regions of Russia is given in terms of export of Russian energy resources to Japan, China, Korea and other NEA countries. A comprehensive strategy of energy cooperation for NEA countries is shown and elaborated.     

Development of scenario conditions as a key stage of economic forecast preparation

Formation of coordinated economic development forecasts is impossible without elaborating hypotheses and assumptions about the development of the world economy, situation in key commodity and exchange markets, parameters of economic policy, etc. The quality of forecasts and their feasibility mainly depend on how well these indices are coordinated. Different approaches to the formation of macroeconomic scenarios are considered in the paper in the framework of preparation of macroeconomic forecasts of Russia’s economic development in the medium- and long-term perspective.     

Forecasting the development of a regional electric power industry and economy: The case of the Republic of Komi

Methodological and modeling tools for the analysis and coordinated forecast of the development of a regional power industry and economy (the Republic of Komi) are considered. The information and model basis of forecast calculations is the regional product production accounts itemized by the cost elements of industrial outputs and the interrelations between the production and consumption of fuel and energy resources. The model is used for multivariate calculations of forecast dynamics and for obtaining a generalizing characteristic of the scenarios under analysis in aggregated indicators of economic growth and the energy efficiency of production.     

Dynamics of the energy intensity of the Russian economy in 2006–2007 and projections of the energy consumption

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the energy intensity in the sequential chain of hierarchically interconnected levels of the Russian Federation’s economy in 2006–2007, i.e., GDP segments of the economy’s technological processes sectors. In terms of the energy consumption projection, 2006 and 2007 present an extremely interesting example of the changing impulsive character of the growth of the demand for electric energy under intensively growing domestic and foreign demand for products of energy intensive sectors of the Russian Federation. The year of 2006 demonstrated a high growth of the per unit GDP and a very high growth of energy consumption under fast growing internal and external demand for energy intensive products; the year of 2007 showed a still higher growth of the GDP at a sharply curtailed growth of the energy consumption, and the rate of decline of the GDP energy intensity almost doubled. The comparative analysis of 2006 and 2007 can help one to understand what can underlie the changed energy consumption in the country in the period of the world crisis and after its end.     

Determinants of structural change in food exports from developing countries

Over the past three decades, there has been a rapid expansion of processed food exports, replacing traditional agriculture exports such as coffee and tea. However, this development and its policy implications have received little attention in the literature. This paper provides an overview of key characteristics and growth patterns of processed food exports in developing countries. The determinants of structural change towards processed food exports in developing countries are examined using panel data econometric analysis. The results suggest that trade policy openness, large domestic markets, good macroeconomic management—especially in terms of price stability—adequate financial support and infrastructure are the key factors influencing the shift towards processed food exports.