Toolkit for the Input–Output Analysis of the Performance of Russian Economy in 1991–2013

Input–output analysis has been used to study the impact made by microstructure factors such as final demand and the matrix of input–output coefficients on the performance of the total gross output of the Russian Federation in 1990–2013. The contribution of these factors to the economic dynamics during the transformational recession in 1991–1998 and the subsequent restoration growth of 1999–2013 have been numerically estimated.     

Analysis of the Impact of Scientific and Technical Development on Economic Growth Using Input−Output Balance Tools

The article analyzes problems of measuring the level of technological development of the economy. A review of methods for measuring technological progress and derived estimates of the impact of technological development on economic growth is given. Input?output balance tools are considered, on which basis a structural cost analysis in the Russian economy is performed and alternative estimates of impact of technological changes on economic growth, including by type of economic activity, are assessed.     

Use of Input–Output Approach for Supporting Decisions in the Field of Economic Policy

This article presents basic guidelines of “input–output” approach for decision-making in the field of economic policy. Special attention is given to modern approaches to the analysis and forecasting of economic development by using a cross-sectoral approach. The paper discusses the limitations of structural development of the Russian economy and describes the capabilities of modern interindustry models in the field of macrostructural forecasting.     

Key Tasks and Development Prospects for the Russian Economy in the Context of Kondratiev’s Long Cycles

The rationale behind the key tasks in the development of Russia’s fuel and energy complex, agroindustrial complex, defense industry, and machinery industry and construction complexes has been presented using the apparatus of Kondratiev’s long cycles, i.e., upward and downward waves in the production and export of oil, grain, arms, cars, etc. as well as in the supply of new housing. The trends have been analyzed using Rosstat data for a 100-year period. The analysis has shown how the past rates of development and proportions affect the present and future growth of Russia’s economy. Some of the main tasks have been formulated for the future development of Russia’s economy until 2030. The processes of import substitution and the replacement of oil exports with grain, arms, and cars have been discussed. The issue of the social and economic significance of solving the housing problem in Russia has been raised.     

Input–Output and General Equilibrium Models for Hull and Humber Region in England

This paper shows how one can construct an input output table for four Humber sub regions in England with information on levels and share of employment and output provided by the Humber Forum using coefficients from the national input–output table of UK. It then illustrates how these can be applied to construct multisectoral general equilibrium models specific to Hull, East Riding, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire regions situated in two sides of Humber estuary and a regional model that takes these four inter-dependent economies constituting the Humber economy. A dynamic model is constructed for Hull to assess the prospects in next hundred years based on micro consistent dataset in which households and firms are assumed to have perfect foresight in making their consumption and production decisions. These models are then applied to evaluate impacts of tax policies that can distort relative prices of commodities and factors of production and thus can distort the efficient allocation of scarce economic resources and on welfare of households in the Humber region. To my knowledge this is the first study of this type for this region.

The Financial Support of Financial Institution to the Western Regional Economy under the Economic Structure Condition of the Geography Dual Economy

One of Chinese economy characteristics is the geography dual-economy structure between the westem and eastem area. A feasible method to improve the structure between the westem and eastem of our country is to study utilizing financial support, especially the financial support function of the medium and small financial institutions in the west, to accelerate the economic development of the western region.     

Long-Term Development Trend of China＇s Economy and Importance of the Circular Economy

This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth and resources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of China‘s economic development trend within a given future period, by promoting a new paradigm of technological economy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.     

Long-Term Development Trend of China’s Economy and Importance of the Circular Economy

In 2003, China’seconomy grew at a rateof over 9 percent with per capita GDP hittingUS$ 1,090 for the first time, which means that China’s economy and socialdevelopment have entered a high-growth cycle characterized by rapid structuralchanges. However, this round of high growth is based on resources and an ecologicalenvironment completely different from those of twenty five years ago. Based on ananalysis of the new features of future economic development in China, as well as theresource an…     

The Positive Research on the Tendency of Industrial Agglomeration and Forecasting

New Economic Geography puts forward a famous law of inverted U curve. Meanwhile Chinese scholar Qi Liang proposes industry＇s life cycle theory, which is incompatible to the law of inverted U curve. In order to verify which theory is suitable for the situation of the industrial agglomeration of Chinese industry, we select ten kinds of representative products, carry on a positive analysis of the tendency of the industrial agglomeration from 1980 to 2003, observe where these industries center and forecast the industrial concentration of eight kinds of products in the following ten years.     

Performance of Garch Models in Forecasting the Volatility of Exchange Rate for Developing Countries

This paper empirically investigates the performance of GARCH model in forecasting the volatility of exchange rate of some developing countries. We apply linear GARCH model and non-linear GARCH model. We fit these two models to some developing countries exchange rate index from January, 1998 to February, 2005. The return series of the developing countries＇ foreign exchange rate are leptokurtic, significantly skew, deviating from normality and volatile clustering as well. We find within-sample and out-of-sample evidence that conditional estimates of non-linear GARCH model outperform the conditional estimations of linear GARCH models. In our comparisons in most of the developing countries, the non-linear GARCH model produce better results than the linear GARCH model tor forecasting the volatility of exchange rate.     

Taizhou Model： Institutional Innovation and the Development of Private Economy

Based on the case of Taizhou City in Zhejiang Province, the present paper investigates the mechanism of the interaction between the local government and private enterprise in the process of regional economic development. We identify the ＂Taizhou Model＂ as a model of institutional innovation and the development of private economy, which is private sectorinduced and local government-promoted. Indeed, the impact of such mechanisms has had a significant influence on the reforms and development of China＇s economic system.     

On the Coordinated Development of Urbanization and Rural Economy in China

Urbanization is one of important missions in china＇s modemization. The most vital task in the advancement of urbanization is to increase peasants＇ income and appropriately solve the issues concerning agriculture, rural areas and peasants, thus ensuring the accelerated development of rural economy. This paper mainly discusses five issues that urgently need solving in the development of rural economy and urbanization. They include peasant＇s qualification and right of the real management entity in the market, financial support, circulation and transference of agricultural land, welfare and social security of peasants and fairness of taxes on peasants.     

Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s Rise in the Global Economy

This article projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia's new food law.     

Policy Options for China＇s Bio-ethanol Development and the Implications for Its Agricultural Economy

The present paper analyzes the potential impacts of bio-ethanol expansion on agricultural production, food prices and farmers＇ incomes in different regions of China. The results show that increase in demand for feedstock to produce bio-ethanol will lead to large increase in the prices of agricultural products. The increase in prices will trigger a significant rise in the production of feedstock at the cost of lower rice and wheat production. The study also reveals that the impacts of bio-ethanol on farmers＂ incomes vary largely among regions and farmer groups. Given the expected expansion of bio-ethanol production in the future, and the limited land resources for feedstock production in China, the viability of different crops as feedstock for bio-ethanol requires careful analysis before a large-scale expansion of China＇s bio-ethanol program. Bio-ethanol production in China should be relying more on the second generation of bio-ethanol technologies （i.e. using celluloses to produce bio-ethanol）, and China＇s government should increase research investment in this field.     

Input–output coefficients in the evaluation of a scientific and technological component of the macrostructural forecasting

Approaches to the quantitative evaluation of technological development parameters based on input–output coefficients of the input–output table and possibilities of their application in the estimation of quantitative characteristics of scientific and technological forecasts have been considered. This work is a continuation of studies related to the assessment of the influence of the technological coefficient on the economic dynamics.     

A Review of the Ownership Structure and Corporate Performance

The separation between the ownership and control is an important character for modem firms. Since Modern Firm and Private Property written by Berle and Means was published, the study on the relationship between the ownership and corporate performance has become a front porch task in modem firm theory. In this paper, firstly, we review the argument on this topic among the western researchers and the achievements in recent 20 years. Then we evaluate all the results about this topic and show some valuable advice for the continuous study. Finally, we forecast the research foreground on this topic.     

Productivity Growth in the Chinese Economy by Industry and the Role of Foreign Capital

I. IntroductionIt is well known that China’s reform and open-up policy initiated in 1978 had an extremelylarge impact on the Chinese economy. This policy represented an about-face against thetraditional self-reconstruction strategy that China had maintained since the founding ofthe people’s Republic in 1949. Although China’s economy temporarily fell into confusionfor a few years after the Tian-an-men incident in 1989, China continued to record high GDPgrowth. Moreover, after Deng Xiao…