The impact of railroad mergers on grain transportation markets: a Kansas case study

While there have been many studies of the impact of railroad deregulation on agricultural transportation markets there have been very few that address the impact of railroad mergers on rail grain prices and the distribution of efficiency gains. The purpose of this paper is to add to the sparse literature regarding the effect of railroad mergers on agricultural transportation markets. Given the ever declining number of Class I railroads, this research is very timely.The specific objectives of the research are as follows: (1) Analyze the impact of the Burlington Northern (BN)–Santa Fe (SF) merger on the ability of the BNSF to increase prices on movements of Kansas wheat to Houston, Texas. (2) Analyze the impact of the Union Pacific (UP)–Southern Pacific (SP) merger on the ability of the UPSP to increase prices on movements of Kansas wheat to Houston, Texas. (3) Analyze changes in Kansas wheat logistics system costs as a result of the BN–SF and UP–SP mergers.Two models are developed to achieve the objectives of the study. A network model of the wheat logistics system is used to identify the least cost transportation routes from the Kansas study area to the market at Houston, Texas. A profit improvement algorithm is developed to measure the amount by which railroads can raise their prices above variable cost.The BNSF and UPSP achieve only minor increases in market power (measured by the ratio of revenue to variable cost) because the merged railroads have only slight advantages in cost relative to other railroads that serve the same areas as the merged railroads. Wheat shippers benefit from merger-induced reductions in transportation and handling costs. Shippers are likely to capture a significant share of these cost reductions since intrarailroad competition is present after the mergers. Transport cost reductions accompany mergers due to more direct routing of wheat shipments and the assumption that the merged railroad operates at the costs of the lower cost partner.     

中美铁路上市公司绩效比较及政策含义

从在纽约证券交易所上市的铁路运输公司的市场表现入手,对其市场绩效、财务绩效进行分析,对比在上海、香港、纽约三地上市的广深铁路股份有限公司（简称GSH）与在纽约上市的北美五家铁路上市公司,GSH的净资产报酬率大大低于北美铁路上市公司。其原因是GSH的销售净利润率较高,权益乘数、总资产周转率大大低于北美铁路上市公司,其成因主要是GSH享受了特殊运价政策、债务性融资比例低、在建工程比例大和现金资产管理效率低。通过分析,对铁路运价定价、铁路企业上市融资、上市公司管理提出建议。     

Time series forecasting of quarterly railroad grain carloadings

The participants in the grain logistics system need forecasts of railroad grain carloads. Although forecasting studies have been conducted for virtually every mode, no forecasting studies of quarterly railroad grain transportation have been published. The objectives of the paper are (1) specify a US quarterly railroad grain transportation forecasting model, and (2) empirically estimate the model. The selection of explanatory variables requires that they have a theoretical relationship to railroad grain transportation supply and/or demand, and that the data for the explanatory variables are published in quarterly frequency. However, there are relatively few potential explanatory variables that are published quarterly and those that are available appear to have weak correlation with quarterly railroad grain carloadings. The economic process generating quarterly railroad grain carloadings is quite complex and very difficult to model with regression techniques. Given this problem and the focus on short run forecasting, a time series model was employed to forecast quarterly railroad grain carloadings. An AR(4) model was estimated using the Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure for the 1987:4–1997:4 period. The actual railroad grain carloadings for this period were compared to the forecast carloadings generated by the time series model. For 92% of the 37 quarters the percentage difference between the actual and forecast values was 10% or less. Of the 9 annual observations, the per cent difference between the actual and forecast value was less than 2.6% for 8 of the 9 years. ©     

Future impacts of coal distribution constraints on coal costs

This study seeks to identify potential capacity constraints within the US rail network that could limit expanded use of coal for electricity generation and hydrogen fuel production. We estimate the costs of alleviating those constraints under various scenarios of future coal demand growth. By 2050, coal transportation is projected to increase 35–90% necessitating rail capital investments of $1.5–11.0 billion. These investments are within the range of historical expenditures in the railroad industry, so it is unlikely that delivered prices of coal will necessarily increase or that rail capacity will be a barrier to a future coal-based “Hydrogen Economy”.     

Capacity and toll choice of an add-on toll road under various ownership regimes

This paper considers the problem of how to select the toll and capacity levels of a new toll road added onto an existing network with a single link. The existing network has various ownership regimes: free, public or private owned toll road. The effects of the ownership regime of the existing network on the capacity and toll selections of the add-on toll road, the efficiency of the whole network in the sense of total social benefit, and the investment incentives of the government to develop the new road are investigated when the traffic demand is elastic or inelastic.     

Capacity and toll choice of an add-on toll road under various ownership regimes

This paper considers the problem of how to select the toll and capacity levels of a new toll road added onto an existing network with a single link. The existing network has various ownership regimes: free, public or private owned toll road. The effects of the ownership regime of the existing network on the capacity and toll selections of the add-on toll road, the efficiency of the whole network in the sense of total social benefit, and the investment incentives of the government to develop the new road are investigated when the traffic demand is elastic or inelastic.     

用蚁群算法求解类TSP问题的研究

铁路运输调度问题能否很好解决对于铁路运输公司至关重要,旅行商问题(简称TSP)经常被用来研究运输调度问题。根据某化工集团铁路运输公司的生产实际,提出了“类TSP”问题,但由于“类TSP”和TSP有很大区别,以前求解TSP的优化算法不能直接用于“类TSP”的求解。利用蚁群算法是可以较好解决TSP的一类新型模拟进化算法,适应“类TSP”的要求,并通过“蚁后规则”和变异机制的引入,提出了一种改进的人工蚁群算法。计算机仿真结果表明该算法求解“类TSP”是行之有效的。     

太焦铁路（北段）扩能改造必要性及方案探讨

太焦铁路（北段）扩能改造对于发挥太中银铁路和太兴铁路等相关路网的通道能力和效益、消除晋煤外运瓶颈意义重大。分析太焦线既有线的现状及存在问题,根据未来10年及20年线路预测运量,阐明了太焦线既有线改造必要性,提出了北太焦线改造定位原则及比选方案,并得出了相应的结论。     

Estimating welfare changes from efficient pricing in public bus transit in India

Three different and feasible pricing strategies for public bus transport in India are developed in a partial equilibrium framework with the objective of improving economic efficiency and ensuring revenue adequacy, namely average cost pricing, marginal cost pricing, and two-part tariffs. These are assessed not only in terms of gains in economic efficiency, but also in changes in travel demand and consumer surplus. The estimated partial equilibrium price is higher in all three pricing regimes when compared to the current price. As a result, consumer surplus falls in all three cases. The price increase is much larger with average cost pricing compared to marginal cost pricing or two-part tariffs, and hence a larger fall in demand and consumer surplus occurs due to average cost pricing. While there is a gain in economic efficiency from marginal cost pricing and two-part tariffs, this improvement comes at the expense of reduced public bus transit demand and consumer surplus, given the price inelastic public bus transit demand estimated for India. Given the mobility needs and the developmental concerns of a growing economy such as India, the challenge for policy makers is to balance the gains in economic efficiency in the public bus transit sector against other social, political, and developmental goals.     

The historical fuel efficiency characteristics of regional aircraft from technological, operational, and cost perspectives

To develop approaches that effectively reduce aircraft emissions, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms that have enabled historical improvements in aircraft efficiency. This paper focuses on the impact of regional aircraft on the US aviation system and examines the technological, operational and cost characteristics of turboprop (TP) and regional jet (RJ) aircraft. Regional aircraft are 40–60% less fuel efficient than their larger narrow- and wide-body counterparts, while RJs are 10–60% less fuel efficient than TPs. Fuel efficiency differences can be explained largely by differences in aircraft operations, not technology. Direct operating costs per revenue passenger kilometer are 2.5–6 times higher for regional aircraft because they operate at lower load factors and perform fewer miles over which to spread fixed costs. Further, despite incurring higher fuel costs, RJs are shown to have operating costs similar to TPs when flown over comparable stage lengths.     

Optimizing the aerodynamic efficiency of intermodal freight trains

We develop an aerodynamic loading assignment model for intermodal freight trains based on an integer-programming framework to help terminal managers make up more fuel-efficient trains. This is the first use of optimization modeling to address the aerodynamics and energy efficiency of railroad intermodal trains. Several recommendations regarding railway equipment use, operations, and policy are proposed to improve fuel-efficiency and reduce emissions from intermodal transportation. Analysis of one major railroad intermodal route reveals the potential to reduce fuel consumption by 15 million gallons per year with corresponding savings of $28,000,000. Greater benefits are possible through broader implementation of the model.     

The determinants of truck accidents

This paper examines the determinants of truck accidents in the United States using a time series data set covering the period 1970–2001. Along with other factors, the effect of the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, which deregulated the trucking industry, is examined for its impact on truck accidents. In addition, the model accounts for the effect railroad freight mileage has on truck accidents. Empirically, alcohol consumption, the unemployment rate, and railroad activity were found to have significant effects on truck accidents while deregulation of the trucking industry did not have a statistically significant adverse effect on these accidents.     

The impacts of congestion on commercial vehicle tour characteristics and costs

Analytical modeling and insights, numerical experiments, and real-world tour data are used to understand the impact of congestion on urban tour characteristics, carriers’ costs, and distance/time traveled. This paper categorizes tours into three classes based on their tour efficiency and variable costs structure. Travel time/distance between customers and depot is found to be a crucial factor that exacerbates the negative impacts of congestion. Travel time variability is a significant factor only when travel time between depot and customers is considerable in relation to the maximum tour duration. For each customer, it is possible to define a dimensionless coefficient that provides an indication of the relative impact of congestion on routing constraints. Congestion also affects carriers’ cost structure, as congestion worsens the relative weight of wages and overtime escalates and the relative weight of distance related costs decrease.     

Economic impacts of Swedish railway deregulation: A longitudinal study

Vertical separation between infrastructure service provision and the operation of trains is one important element in the Swedish deregulation process. Another is the introduction of various forms of competition. In this paper, we study the economic development of the Swedish railway and explore if and how the deregulation has affected cost efficiency. We use a longitudinal econometric approach in our study and conclude that vertical separation raises costs, and also that the introduction of competition lowers costs. The combined effect seems to be an improvement in cost efficiency as an impact of the deregulation process. The study also gives some results on lagged relationships between output and costs in railways with mixed passenger and freight services and provides a methodological approach for causal research on the relationship between railway deregulation and costs.     

Differentiating metropolitan transport disadvantage by mode: Household expenditure on private vehicle fuel and public transport fares in Brisbane,Australia

Public transport (PT) has become important in everyday travels in Australian cities. Rising PT fares create a competitive disadvantage against private motor vehicles which is threatening PT ridership. This paper seeks to gain further insights into transport disadvantage by exploring spatial patterns of household transport expenditure on PT fares and private vehicle fuel use for the Brisbane metropolitan area. Several datasets are used to measure mode-specific transport costs, including the journey to work matrix, fuel efficiency of the private vehicle fleet and PT fares for the city. Through an advanced spatial analysis, the results show that PT was not a cost-effective means of transport for households when compared to private motor vehicles. The paper then compares mode-specific trip costs with patterns of suburban socio-economic disadvantage in Brisbane. We demonstrate that the high PT fares increase household exposure to higher transport costs and compound other forms of transport disadvantage and vulnerability, particularly in outer suburban areas.     

Understanding overall output efficiency in public transit systems: The roles of input regulations,perceived budget and input subsidies

This paper examines the combined effects of subsidies, regulations and perceived budget on overall output and technical efficiency in a sample of single-mode bus transit systems using an indirect production function. The main findings are that the average transit system is 67.21% output efficient and systematic and stochastic technical inefficiencies decrease output. In addition subsidies increase output, regulations decrease output and the overall budget effect is an increase in output. Additionally, it identifies the characteristics of two groups of transit systems whose perceived costs after subsidies and regulations are either less or greater than actual total costs.     

Aircraft operational costs and turnaround efficiency at airports

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between flight schedule punctuality and aircraft turnaround efficiency at airports, in order to minimise system operational costs and meanwhile to maintain a required level of schedule punctuality. Investigations of aircraft operational costs, passenger delay costs and airline schedule time-opportunity costs are carried out in this paper. A mathematical model is applied to simulate aircraft turnaround operations by considering the stochastic effects of schedule punctuality as well as aircraft turnaround performance. Two numerical examples demonstrate the performance of the aircraft turnaround model. Results show the significance of a proper use of schedule buffer time in maintaining schedule punctuality performance.     

Measurement of airlines’ capacity utilization and cost gap: Evidence from low-cost carriers

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the capacity utilization and cost gap between actual and global long-run minimum costs. Based on the data for thirteen low-cost carriers around the world for the year 2010, an input-oriented data envelopment analysis model is used to estimate the physical capacity utilization and cost gap between actual and global long-run minimum costs. The empirical results show that more than half of low-cost carriers should improve their capacity utilization, and all low-cost carriers should enhance their market efficiency and reduce their excess costs. Of the thirteen low-cost carriers, three should improve their technical efficiency, four should re-distribute the mix of variable inputs, all thirteen should pay lower prices for all variable inputs, and ten should enhance the utilization rate of their fixed factors.     

铁路集装箱运输发展现状与影响因素浅析

我国铁路集装箱运输经过多年的发展,取得了长足进步,但与2010年铁路集装箱达到1000万个TEU的目标还相差甚远。通过调查研究,分析产生问题的主要原因,并提出相关政策建议。     

Competition in railway monopolies

The transformation of railways from monopolies to markets open for internal competition is described and explained in a theoretical framework, and a model for the evaluation of the transformation’s impact on efficiency is developed. Using the model in an empirical study of the Swedish railway sector, it is found that external competitive pressure is strong in most supply segments and, focusing on loss of scale advantages, that the transformation will result in significant costs. Comparing the potential for gains by competition against the costs, it is concluded that increased efficiency by internal competition only seems possible to achieve for two train products: domestic combined transport and dedicated trains (both freight services).