Give public transit a chance: A comparative analysis of competitive travel time in public transit modal share

Extensive research has found that people are more likely to choose the transport alternative which offers shorter travel time. But few studies approached the role of travel time across different transport alternatives and cities. This research assesses the influence of competitive travel time between car and public transit in public transit modal share for commute trips. São Paulo, New York, and Tokyo were selected to perform the analysis. A Fractional Logistic Regression in the binary form was drawn, and a competitive travel time index was calculated based on the Car/Public transit travel time ratio weighted by the number of the employed population at the origin and jobs at destinations in the absence of an Origin-Destination matrix. Findings suggest that, though car ownership was identified as the major factor, Car/Public transit travel time ratio is positively associated with the increase of public transit modal share. Furthermore, the Car/Public transit travel time ratio effect in public transit modal share consistently increases as people get increased access to cars.     

Expense preference behavior in public transit systems

This paper extends previous works that view transit systems as minimizing their after-subsidy costs. The paper uses the expense preference behavior model in economics and derives first-order conditions for the manager. From the first-order conditions, the paper formally shows that the decomposition of relative price inefficiency between management behavior and subsidies found in the work of Sakano et al. (1997) can be derived from a utility maximizing model, thus placing that decomposition within the shadow price literature. Extensions to the models to calculate expense preference are also presented. The results of the estimated models show that transit systems have expense preference for capital and not labor. This expense preference behavior increases total costs by about 15% and capital subsidies by about 20%.     

Transit Deserts: Equity analysis of public transit accessibility

Areas, where disadvantaged and transit-dependent populations are provided with inadequate amounts of transit supply, can be labeled transit deserts. Exploring transit deserts may help transit agencies improve accessibility to services while improving transit distribution and equity. This study utilizes the concepts of transit demand and transit supply to identify transit deserts in the City of Dallas. The comprehensive public transit accessibility (CPTA) score is introduced to evaluate accessibility to transit and to provide a holistic view of transit supply. While previous studies have primarily used proximity or spatial indicators to describe accessibility, this study utilizes a comprehensive set of spatial and temporal measures (connectivity to the network, connectivity to destinations, service frequency, flexibility, and time efficiency) to estimate accessibility to transit. Overlapping areas of high demand (transit dependency) and low supply (as measured using the CPTA) are then characterized as transit deserts. The CPTA score and its application to the analysis of transit deserts provides a universal framework which can be broadly applied by transit agencies, city officials, and transit stakeholders. The contributions of this study are as follows: first, developing a comprehensive framework to estimate transit supply or accessibility; and second, introducing a methodology for identifying transit deserts.     

The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: a panel data analysis

Malaysia has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past 10 years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors influencing inbound tourism to Malaysia. This paper investigates the economic and non-economic determinants of international tourist flows to Malaysia using the generalized method of moment. The annual panel data set includes the number of arrivals from 33 countries during the period 2000–2012, and the number of possible explanatory variables. It is found that habit persistence (word of mouth), income, hotel room and political stability have a positive impact on tourism demand for Malaysia. Also, results indicate that the estimated coefficients of substitute tourism price in the model are negative. This implies that the five alternative destinations are complementary destinations to Malaysia. In addition, the dummy variable for Visit Malaysia Year in 2007 and severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 had positive and negative impacts on tourism demand for Malaysia, respectively.     

Tourism demand: a panel data approach

This paper estimates the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995–2014 in the USA using the gravity framework. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries using autoregressive distributed lag methods. The results show real gross domestic product, consumer price index, real exchange rate and certain specific events have a significant impact on international tourism demand. The income elasticity suggests that tourism is non-luxury goods, and prices and real exchange rate have negative relation to tourist arrivals. We also find that tourism transport infrastructure is a significant determinant of tourist arrivals into USA. This implies that infrastructure to reinforce taste formation is important to attract more international tourists to USA. In addition, results also suggest implications for public and private tourism authorities.     

A model for holding strategy in public transit systems with real-time information

Holding strategies are among the most commonly used operation-control strategies in public transit systems. These strategies are most effective when used to control services characterized by high frequency. In this paper, a mathematical model for a holding control strategy is developed. Particularly, this model uses real-time information of locations of buses along a specified route. The objective of the developed model is to minimize the waiting time of passengers at all stops on that route. Furthermore, the model developed in this paper is characterized by the flexibility of adopting situations where bus occupancy could be either high, or low. A heuristic is developed to circumvent the complexity of the solution for the problem described. Numerical examples and computational results are presented and discussed.     

Total factor productivity decomposition,input price inefficiencies,and public transit systems

This paper decomposes the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in public transit systems among input demand effects, an indirect output effect, an indirect technical change, pure scale effects and pure technical change. An application of the decomposition to selected transit systems is provided. The application shows that the effects of the changes in input price inefficiencies on TFP are sizeable, and that the total subsidy effects on TFP are larger than the total effects from utility maximization behavior. Furthermore, the traditional sources of TFP (i.e., pure scale and technical change) reduce TFP and the Divisia index overestimates TFP in public transit systems.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of bike-sharing use in Cologne taking into account a public transit disruption

This research analyzes the relationship between bike-sharing and public transit using bike-sharing data collected in Cologne, Germany. The selected system is one of very few in Germany that is organized as a free-floating system, which allows the generation of more detailed data. A construction site in the light rail network causing multiple disruptions in the public transit network offered the possibility to detect changes in bike-sharing usage that occur in the corresponding period. Applying negative binomial regression, spatial and temporal usage patterns are analyzed to identify connections to the public transit network and other factors influencing the usage of bike sharing. The analysis suggests the existence of a spatial relationship between bike-sharing and public transit. Therefore, an intermodal use of both means of transport can be assumed. The short-term changes in the public transit network caused by the construction site only have minor impacts on the usage patterns. Other factors that affect the usage structures could be identified. Proximity to universities as well as the number of certain points of interest nearby, such as food outlets and shops, promote bike-sharing use. Higher temperatures are also positively correlated, while rain reduces usage. The findings of the study can be beneficial to integrate bike-sharing into urban transport systems, especially regarding public transit.     

Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis

Growth in car ownership has significant impacts on the use of urban space and management of urban environments, which makes it a topic of increasing interest especially for developing countries such as China. The dynamics of and factors influencing ownership in Chinese cities need careful investigation. Using fixed effects models applied to annual panel data (1994–2012; 293 cities) this study aimed to achieve the following: 1) assess the relationships between car ownership and average annual income per capita, population, built-up area, road area per capita, urban population density, number of taxis and bus passenger volume; 2) examine the variation of these relationships across geographical regions (East, middle, and West China) and city sizes (cities with small, medium, large, and super-large populations). The results showed that car ownership was positively associated with average annual income per capita, built-up area, road area per capita, urban population density, and number of taxis at the national level. All associations, except with the number of taxis, varied significantly across geographical regions. Built-up area, road area per capita, and number of taxis had different associations with car ownership depending on city sizes. The findings improve the understanding of relationships between car ownership and urban environments vis-a-vis variations in income and infrastructure per capita, population density, and transportation alternatives. These results have important policy implications for managing cars and health problems related to cars in China.     

Understanding overall output efficiency in public transit systems: The roles of input regulations,perceived budget and input subsidies

This paper examines the combined effects of subsidies, regulations and perceived budget on overall output and technical efficiency in a sample of single-mode bus transit systems using an indirect production function. The main findings are that the average transit system is 67.21% output efficient and systematic and stochastic technical inefficiencies decrease output. In addition subsidies increase output, regulations decrease output and the overall budget effect is an increase in output. Additionally, it identifies the characteristics of two groups of transit systems whose perceived costs after subsidies and regulations are either less or greater than actual total costs.     

A novel origin destination based transit supply index: Exploiting the opportunities with big transit data

Quantifying transit resources and its networkwide temporal distribution is needed for the informed transit planning and operations decisions. One effective way to estimate the transit resource provision to a zone is to calculate the transit supply index. However, in literature, Supply Index (SI) is modelled considering the transit services allocated to a zone and ignores the quality and quantity of the supply provided between two zones. Addressing this need, this paper proposes a novel origin-destination based supply index (odSI) that incorporates a) zonal characteristics such as transit routes operate in origin zone, number of trips made by those routes, walk buffer areas of transit stops, and the total area of the zone; b) the quality of the service provided in terms of the average speed and route straightness ratio; and c) origin-destination dependent variables such as the minimum number of transfers needed to travel between two zones, the average transit speed between those zones, straightness of transit routes, and total available capacity. As proof of concept, the proposed odSI model is applied on the real network from Brisbane, Australia, at Statistical Area-2 level. The odSI results for 136 × 136 zonal pairs are presented for four different time periods (two peak and two off-peak periods). Furthermore, detailed analysis is carried for a zone, Grange, as an origin and the remaining 135 zones as destinations. The applicability of the proposed odSI model on Brisbane demonstrates its capability to provide valuable insights for an extensive network, which can help planners visualise and improve the complex and cumbersome networks in a more effective manner.     

Moving freight on public transit: Best practices,challenges, and opportunities

Freight on Transit (FOT) refers to an operational strategy where public transit vehicles and/or infrastructure are used to move freight. Examples include moving goods alongside passengers on buses, attaching cargo trailers to transit vehicles, and operating freight vehicles between trains on subway lines. This paper describes the methods and results of a three-round Delphi study engaging 34 transportation experts to explore challenges and opportunities of FOT and to conceptualize and evaluate potential FOT operations in Toronto. Traditional Delphi methods were used for the exploration of FOT challenges and opportunities, and a modified approach was formulated to integrate experts' opinions and develop new FOT concepts for Toronto. The results support previous claims that technical challenges of FOT may be easier to overcome than institutional barriers. Evaluation of potential FOT operating strategies in Toronto suggests that while the current public transit network does not have capacity to support additional movements, there may be realistic opportunities to include freight service in future projects as a means of offsetting operating costs and reducing the impacts of goods movements.     

The technical efficiency of Canadian urban transit systems

This paper uses a bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to estimate technical efficiency scores for Canadian urban transit systems from 1990 to 1998. Bias and confidence intervals are estimated for the efficiency scores. A Tobit regression is used to analyze the sources of efficiency change. The paper finds that the original efficiency scores are biased. The bootstrap results indicate that the average technical efficiency of the transit systems is about 78%. Most transit systems experience increasing returns to scale. While higher average transit speed increases efficiency peaking decreases efficiency, which reinforces previous DEA efficiency studies.     

The impacts of cultural values on bilateral international tourist flows: a panel data gravity model

This study explores the impacts of Hofstede’s six cultural dimensions on international tourist flows. A panel data gravity model was used to analyse bilateral tourist flows between 81 origin countries and 32 destination countries from 1995 to 2008. This model highlights cultural factors using the push and pull framework and explains their influence vis-a-vis self-image congruity theory, arousal theory, and cultural theory of risk. Results indicate that when controlling for the effects of distance, population, and GDP per capita, international tourists tend to flow out of countries with lower Power Distance, higher Individualism, lower Masculinity, higher Long-Term Orientation, and higher Indulgence. Countries with higher Individualism, lower Uncertainty Avoidance, and higher Indulgence tend to attract more international tourists. In the push and pull model, tourist source countries’ cultural values, such as low Power Distance, Individualism, Femininity, and Indulgence can be considered push factors in international travel, while destination countries’ cultural values of Individualism, Uncertainty Acceptance, and Indulgence act as pull factors. Self-image congruity theory is supported in the cultural dimension of Uncertainty Avoidance Index. Recommendations for destination marketing are made based on the findings.     

Exploratory data analysis of activity diary data: a space-time GIS approach

Study of human activities in space and time has been an important research topic in transportation research. Limitations of conventional statistical methods for analysis of individual-level human activities have encouraged spatiotemporal analysis of human activity patterns in a space-time context. Based on Hägerstrand’s time geography, this study presents a space-time GIS approach that is capable of representing and analyzing spatiotemporal activity data at the individual level. Specifically, we have developed an ArcGIS extension, named Activity Pattern Analyst (APA), to facilitate exploratory analysis of activity diary data. This extension covers a set of functions such as space-time path generation, space-time path segmentation, space-time path filter, and activity distribution/density pattern exploration. It also provides a space-time path based multi-level clustering method to investigate individual-level spatiotemporal patterns. Using an activity diary dataset collected in Beijing, China, this paper presents how this Activity Pattern Analyst extension can facilitate exploratory analysis of individual activity diary data to uncover spatiotemporal patterns of individual activities.     

An investigation of the performance of urban rail transit systems on the corridor level: A comparative analysis in the American west

Since the 1980s, significant investments have been made in urban rail transit across the United States, particularly using light rail technology. Most of these light rail systems have been built in Sunbelt cities which no longer had legacy rail systems. As a result, they were constructed using a building blocks approach, being funded corridor by corridor. Most research, however, on urban rail performance has taken place at the system-wide level, leaving a significant gap at the level of the transit corridor. This research examined nineteen urban rail corridors in Denver, Salt Lake City, and Portland. A performance score was constructed for each corridor based upon ridership per mile, ridership growth, capital costs, and the cost of ongoing operations. These scores were then compared with the geographic profile of each corridor studied. Corridors in each city ranked high and low, with no city emerging as a clear frontrunner. More centrally-located corridors in each city registered the highest performance scores, while longer corridors in more peripheral locations had lower performance scores. Headways, population density, job density, walkability, and percentage renter occupied housing units were found to have a statistically significant relationship with high corridor performance, largely in line with previous studies, though median income, bus connections, and park and ride spaces were not found to increase performance in this study.     

Spatiotemporal accessibility to supermarkets using public transit: an interaction potential approach in Cincinnati,Ohio

Improving nutrition in urban regions involves understanding which neighborhoods and populations lack access to stores that sell healthy foods, such as fruits and vegetables. To this end, recent work has focused on mapping regions without access to places like supermarkets, often terming them ‘food deserts’. Until recently, this work has not considered residents’ mobility as facilitated by transportation systems, and even among those that do, few have considered alternative forms of transportation, like public transit, opting for automobile-oriented travel assumptions. This paper analyzes people’s spatio-temporal constraints to accessing supermarkets, and focuses on the transit commuting population. Analysis of commute data from Cincinnati, Ohio shows there are a significant number of residents that have improved access to supermarkets when a grocery shopping trip is made on the way home from work, than if they were to depart from their home location. These results extend previous work showing relatively few automobile commuting residents have better access to supermarkets given their work locations.     

Analysis on bike-share ridership for origin-destination pairs: Effects of public transit route characteristics and land-use patterns

Studies on bike-share programs have dramatically increased during the past decades. While numerous studies have examined various factors affecting bike-share demand at the station-level, few attempts have been made to understand bike-share ridership at the origin-destination (OD) level due to technical difficulties. The objective of this study is to examine whether existing public transit characteristics affect bike-share ridership at OD-level. We combined three datasets: (1) bike-share ridership data, (2) land-use and bike-transit infrastructure, and (3) bike-transit route characteristics between OD pairs of bike stations. Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were used for the analysis. Our results showed that the travel distance between OD bike stations, land-use compositions, and the existence of bike-friendly infrastructures were significant factors determining bike-share ridership at the OD-level. In particular, a longer duration of public transit trips than bike-share, and more transit transfers, were associated with bike-share ridership. Further, this study showed that bike-share and public transit might compete with or promote each other, even within the city. The study's findings suggest that the relative efficiency of bike-share compared to public transit is highly associated with bike-share demand and help to increase the utility of bike-share system in response to several limitations of existing public transit networks.     

Uncovering the spatially heterogeneous effects of shared mobility on public transit and taxi

A Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model is applied to explore the effects of shared mobility trips on taxi and public transit ridership at the macro-level. Several essential variables, including socioeconomic, transportation, network, and land use data, are set as the causal factors. The experiment is conducted using the smart card data, vehicle GPS trajectories, and vehicle order data collected in Shenzhen City, China. We show that the Mixed GWR outperforms the basic GWR in model fitting and capturing the unobserved heterogeneity. The spatial analysis reveals that bike-sharing addresses the “last-mile” and “first-mile” problems to bus and metro in the urban periphery. It substitutes the bus and taxis in short-distance journeys in the city center. However, the over-placement of bike-sharing in some regions limits the flexibility of bike-sharing connections to the metro. In the city center, ride-hailing fills the gaps in bus coverage and competes with the metro. In the peripheral areas, ride-hailing replaces buses and improves the accessibility to metro stations. The transportation policy increases the cooperation between ride-hailing and taxis citywide, although competitions in few regions need to be solved. The abovementioned results provide policy suggestions to optimize the allocation of local transportation resources.