The export of manpower from Pakistan to the Middle East, 1975–1985

This article summarizes the major findings of recent research undertaken on: (1) Pakistani migration to the Middle East, and (2) on international labour migration in the Middle East and North Africa. The export of manpower from Pakistan for temporary employment in the Middle East has risen dramatically since the oil boom of the mid-1970s. As a consequence, remittances, which constitute the major gain from migration, have become an important source of foreign exchange, amounting to almost 80% of total merchandise export earnings by 1980/ 1981. The direct beneficiaries of these remittances are a million or so migrant households, whose average premigration income was somewhat above the national average household income. Remittances have enabled these households to significantly increase current consumption and purchase assets with the potential of improving their future income stream. Domestic labour has also benefited to the extent that migration has contributed to rising real wages in recent years.Migration has not, however, been an unqualified gain for the economy as a whole. The major cost has been the decline in productivity caused by the departure of quality labour among manual skills and professional categories, both of which cannot be easily replaced. It seems that, on balance, Pakistan has benefited from this labour export. Prospects for continuing migration on a substantial scale remain good for the near future, provided, of course, that projected growth rates of oil exporters materialize. The net benefits for the economy from migration in the coming years will primarily depend upon the extent to which scarce skills can be speedily replaced and remittances utilized to build productivity-increasing assets.     

Poverty,gender and migrancy: Lesotho's migrant farmworkers in South Africa

During the 1990s, eastern Free State vegetable farmers increasingly relied on migrants from neighbouring Lesotho for seasonal labour. This coincided with a major downsizing of the mine labour force in South Africa, hitherto the major employer of Basotho migrant workers. However, there was no simple process of transfer of unemployed migrants from the mining to the farming sector; rather, decisions were mediated by domestic relationships and household poverty in Lesotho. Basotho women and girls have been a major casualty of mine retrenchments and the drying up of remittances, and those with domestic skills but little formal training have been forced into the labour market, mainly domestic work in towns and labour on farms. This article examines the Basotho migrants' experiences and conditions of employment, the regulatory environment within which they are recruited and employed, and their future in the context of changing immigration and migration legislation in South Africa.     

Remittances and development: the impact of migration to South Africa on rural livelihoods in southern Zimbabwe

The development potential of remittances has not received much policy attention in the migrants' countries of origin. The Homelink facility established by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in May 2004 excludes undocumented migrants, who are unlikely to use formal channels to send their remittances back home, and studies on international migration from Zimbabwe to South Africa have neglected the role of remittances, especially from undocumented migrants. However, some countries have realised this potential and developed strategies to encourage the flow and investment of remittances, which can contribute significantly to poverty reduction and development. Without such regulations and policies, which require the collaboration of government, migrant groups, the local community, non-governmental organisations and other international organisations, migrant remittances will continue to be used mainly for consumption, with a very small proportion being invested in sustainable investment.     

Identifying the effects of migration on parental health: Evidence from left-behind elders in China

This study pioneers the application of the New Economics of Labor Migration theory to outline and estimate two opposite effects of labor loss driven by the migration and remittances of adult children on the health of left-behind elderly parents through the changing rural market constraints. We use China's rural household survey data and simultaneous equation econometric techniques to estimate the effects of migration on the physical and mental health of left-behind elders. Results indicate that the loss of labor due to migration has a significantly negative effect on the health of left-behind elders, but remittances from migrants can compensate for the adverse effect. This study provides a comprehensive understanding that remittances from migration relax the constraints on household resource allocations in undeveloped rural areas with imperfect market conditions. Overall, left-behind elderly parents benefit from migrant children both physically and mentally.     

The migration and development nexus in Southern Africa Introduction

The role of international and internal migration in facilitating or inhibiting development is currently attracting considerable attention globally. In southern Africa, the migration–development nexus has been researched for a number of years and policy makers in both the development and migration fields are now paying it increasing attention and increasingly recognising the significance of migration for development and poverty reduction. Much of the international debate on this nexus is hampered by the absence of sound, reliable national and local data. This collection of essays by southern African researchers combines the national with the local, the quantitative with the qualitative, and addresses several prominent themes in the global migration–development debate: remittances, the brain drain and migrant rights. It also focuses on key migration–development issues which have received less attention globally, but which are of critical importance to southern Africa: migration and HIV/AIDS, migration and food security and the rural impact of migrant retrenchments. This Introduction to the collection contextualises the essays within current international and local debates.     

Migration from rural areas of poor countries: The impact on rural productivity and income distribution

Evidence is presented elsewhere²⁶ that intra-rural inequality is a major cause of rural-urban migration: that better-off villagers tend to be ‘pulled’, and worse-off villagers ‘pushed’, from the same subset of relatively ‘unequal’ villages. This paper argues that townward emigration, and its after-effects (remittances, return migration), in turn increases interpersonal and inter-household inequality within and between villages. As for rural labour productivity, the neoclassical expectation (that townward migration increases it) rests on special definitions and doubtful assumptions. Fortunately, in most of the poorer developing countries, rural-urban migration is much smaller, less permanent and more likely to set up countervailing economic-demographic pressures restoring the rural population share, than received opinion about ‘the urban crisis’ suggests. Migration does not equilibriate between urban and rural sectors, largely because of externalities and compositional factors; but it does smoothe itself, largely because individuals behave rationally and learn quickly. As so often, the lesson for development studies is not that ‘markets fail’. It is that, under conditions of both poverty and structural inequality, they function — but with generally unacceptable, misery-preserving consequences.     

FOREIGN BANTU WORKERS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THEIR PRESENT POSITION IN THE ECONOMY

It is not possible to compile accurate statistics about the size, origin, distribution, earnings, remittances and similar measurable aspects of the foreign Bantu labour force in South Africa. From the foregoing discussion it will be obvious that such data are most unlikely to become available in the foreseeable future. There is, however, a growing need for reasonably reliable information concerning economic interrelationships in Southern Africa. The only way to arrive at a workable basis for informed studies of labour matters in the regional context, appears to be the one followed here. By compiling, and fully documenting, as much of the accessible and relevant data as possible into comprehensive and intrinsically consistent tables, the present article can, it is hoped, serve as a convenient starting point for further, more detailed investigations. Briefly, the principal figures derived in the foregoing may be recapitulated. The total number of foreign workers in the Republic in 1964 can be put at roughly half a million men, almost 300,000 (59 per cent.) of them in mining, about 140,000 (29 per cent.) in agriculture, and about 60,000 (12 per cent.) in other employment. In these sectors, they constitute roughly 53, 14, and under 4 per cent. respectively of all Bantu employed there. Approximately 45 per cent. of all foreign workers come from the former High Commission Territories (Basotho accounting for about 60 per cent of this group), about 30 per cent. from Moçambique, 18 per cent. from Rhodesia, Zambia and Malawi together, and the remaining 7 per cent. from South West Africa, Angola, Tanzania and other territories. The total annual earnings of foreigners can be put at R133.4 million (R82.3 million cash and R51.1 million in kind), out of which cash and goods to a total value of R23.9 million (R17.7 million cash and R6.2 million worth of goods) are estimated to be remitted to the countries of origin. About 40 per cent. of the total population of Southern Africa, more than 80 per cent. of its White inhabitants, and approximately two-thirds of the region's wage-earning opportunities for Bantu are to be found in the Republic. Apart from the remittances of migrant workers, the labour supplying countries derive substantial benefits, though of course to a varying degree, from the movement of their nationals to the Republic. These are: 1. the absorption of surplus population into the Bantu groups of the Republic; 2. the fact that at any given moment, a large number of people are living off the resources of another country instead of pressing on inadequate resources at home; 3. the financial benefits from the administrative activities of the recruiting organizations; and 4. the instruction in various subjects imparted to employees on the mines and elsewhere, and generally the knowledge and skills brought back by migrants to their home countries. (The social and economic drawbacks of the migrant labour system cannot be ignored but an evaluation of this system falls outside the scope of this study. It must be recognized that intra-regional labour movements are inextricably bound up with the economic life of Southern Africa. It can, rightly, be pointed out that the abundant supply of foreigners to mining and agriculture in the Republic tends to depress the earnings of indigenous Bantu in these sectors. It is, however, prima facie, open to serious doubt whether drastic reductions in the number of foreign workers is the best way to promote the economic well-being of the local Bantu population. From the standpoint of the labour exporting countries, it is naturally regrettable that their nationals are mostly confined to the less well paying sectors of the South African economy. On the other hand, and in view of the undeveloped state of their economies, they have every reason to welcome such employment opportunities as there may be in the Republic. The newly independent states of the region are earnestly striving to develop their potentialities. By supplying (or releasing) scarce resources, labour migration to the Republic contributes materially, and in the case of Lesotho and Botswana even decisively, towards the attainment of higher levels of living throughout the region. The Republic's neighbours would suffer most if political passion or animosity towards South Africa were to disrupt the present network of the intra-regional flow of labour.     

The impact of migration and remittances on labor supply in Tajikistan

Remittances from labor migrants abroad have become the largest component of financial flows to developing countries. While they are an important source of foreign currency for low-income countries, the impact of outmigration and remittances on the economic development of the sending country is ambiguous. To narrow this knowledge gap, this paper examines their impact on the domestic labor market, using the case of Tajikistan – a labor migrant contributor and remittance dependent country in Central Asia. Specifically, we estimate the impact of international migration and receipt of remittances on the labor supply decisions and employment of the family members left behind. To ensure rigorous inferences, we apply a control function approach using unique high-frequency household panel data. Our method enables us to correctly address the simultaneity of migration/remittance and labor supply decisions of the left-behind members. Our main estimates are that sending migrants reduces the labor supply of the left-behind members by 5.4 percentage points, and that receiving remittances reduces it by 10.2 percentage points, respectively. These findings suggest that the reservation wage effect of having a migrant member and receiving remittances is large and surpasses other positive effects they might have.     

外出农民工特征变量及行为抑制:从汇款动机生发

对外出农民工汇款动机及其关键影响因素实证分析表明:农民工汇款更多的表现为交换动机和利己主义,利他主义也得到部分证实。个人特征变量(性别、受教育程度、婚姻等)对农民工汇款意愿和汇款水平均没有显著影响;夫妻共同外出和子女在原籍读书对农民工的汇款行为有显著影响;工资是影响农民工汇款能力的核心指标;回流意愿对农民工汇款意愿和汇款水平均有显著影响,但汇款衰退假说没有得到证实。     

Weather shocks,poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy

Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–92. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but a negative and significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration helped to increase the coping capacity of local communities. Indeed, migrant labour both brought in remittances that supplemented communities’ resources, as well as temporarily relieved impoverished households of the burden of feeding these workers. I show that while temperature shocks were strongly associated with an increase in property crime rates, the effect was much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence demonstrating that the inflow of remittances may have driven this relationship.     

Remittances and relative concerns in rural China

The paper investigates the impact of remittances on the relative concerns of households in rural China. Using the Rural to Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) dataset we estimate a series of subjective well-being functions to simultaneously explore relative concerns with respect to income and remittances. Our results show that although rural households experience substantial welfare loss due to income comparisons, they gain well-being by comparing their remittances with those received by their reference group. In other words, we find evidence of a “status effect” with respect to income and of a “signal effect” of similar magnitude with respect to remittances. This finding is robust to various specifications, alternative reference group definitions, controls for the endogeneity of remittances and selective migration, as well as the use of migrants' net contribution to household income.     

Microeconomic determinants of spatial mobility in post-apartheid South Africa: Longitudinal evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study

Migration, important for many areas in development, is strongly related to employment. Debate over labour supply in developing countries frequently hinges on labour migration. This paper examines the determinants of spatial mobility of working-age adults in South Africa, using the first nationally representative longitudinal survey – the National Income Dynamics Study – for 2008–10. The paper outlines the unique advantages of these data for the study of individual mobility – data that open the possibility of a new research project. Specifically, it asks how policy-relevant programmes, such as social transfers and housing assistance, affect migration. This paper finds, on balance, that transfers are negatively correlated with subsequent relocation. Previous migration is also predictive of future migration and both are tightly related to attrition, while there is an increasing but strongly non-linear relationship between income and mobility. Further, we highlight potential pitfalls – including attrition, and definitional difficulties – in the study of migration and illustrate possible solutions.     

The impact of circular migration on a village economy

The author examines the economy of a rural village in Indonesia in which a high proportion of households rely on remittances from urban informal sector earnings. Household income and per capita income are analyzed according to whether or not households have at least one temporary migrant, and by the sex and age of the household head. Findings indicate that "remittances from short-term circular migration push many households into the middle and upper income ranges. However, the wealthiest households continue to rely on traditional high earning activities and do not depend on remittances. The poorest households are scattered among those who rely on remittances and those still totally dependent upon traditional low earning village activities, regardless of the sex and age of the household head."     

Fathers' whereabouts and children's welfare in Malawi

Children's welfare may be affected by the absence of a parent – be it due to migration, divorce or death. These reasons for absence have largely been addressed separately in the literature; we present a unified framework. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from Malawi, we compare welfare indicators for four categories of children: those who live with both parents, and those who live with their mother but whose father is absent due to migration, divorce, or death. We find a clear pattern of welfare differences: children whose father is either present or a migrant are better off, and children whose father is deceased or whose parents are divorced are worse off. Our findings indicate that concern about the welfare of migrants' children might be exaggerated. By contrast, vulnerable children of divorcees are at risk of being overlooked in a policy environment that focuses on orphans.     

The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China

The paper examines the contentious issue of the extent of surplus labour that remains in China. China was an extreme example of a surplus labour economy, but the rapid economic growth during the period of economic reform requires a reassessment of whether the second stage of the Lewis model has been reached or is imminent. The literature is inconclusive. On the one hand, there are reports of migrant labour scarcity and rising migrant wages; on the other hand, estimates suggest that a considerable pool of relatively unskilled labour is still available in the rural sector. Yet the answer has far-reaching developmental and distributional implications. After reviewing the literature, the paper uses the 2002 and 2007 national household surveys of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to analyse and explain migrant wage behaviour, to predict the determinants of migration, and to examine the size and nature of the pool of potential rural–urban migrants. An attempt is also made to project the rural and urban labour force and migration forward to 2020, on the basis of the 2005 1% Population Survey. The paper concludes that for institutional reasons both phenomena are likely to coexist at present and for some time in the future.     

Remittances and expenditure patterns of the left behinds in rural China

This paper investigates how private transfers from internal migration in China affect the expenditure behavior of families left behind in rural areas. Using data from the Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) survey, we assess the impact of remittances sent to rural households on consumption-type and investment-type expenditures. We apply propensity score matching to account for the selection of households into receiving remittances, and estimate average treatment effects on the treated. We find that remittances supplement income in rural China and lead to increased consumption rather than increased investment. Moreover, we find evidence of a strong negative impact on education expenditures, which could be detrimental to sustaining investment in human capital in poor rural areas in China.     

Wages,Productivity and Labour's Declining Income Share in Post‐Apartheid South Africa

The Marikana incident in 2012, as well as the protracted strikes by platinum miners, metal and postal workers in 2014 suggest that not all is well in the South African labour market. Even though those in employment are better off than the unemployed poor, macroeconomic data indicate that labour's share in gross value added has declined significantly during the first two decades following the first democratic election in 1994. A falling share of labour in income also means, by definition, that average labour productivity growth outstrips real wages growth. Data for South Africa suggest that productivity has indeed increased faster than wages in South Africa. This article argues that financialisation and more aggressive returns‐oriented investment strategies applied by for instance large investment institutions translated into higher required rates of return on capital, which in turn caused an increased implementation of capital‐augmenting labour‐saving technology that reduces labour's share in income.     

Rural-to-urban migration in China

"One consequence of economic reform in China has been the greatly accelerated migration of labour from rural areas to cities. Estimates suggest an annual migrant labour flow of around 50-60 million people, of whom 10-15 million have settled permanently in cities. This article surveys the information that has become available from a number of population and labour surveys. It covers the volume, spatial and temporal dimension of rural-to-urban migration, the characteristics of migrant labourers, the determinants of migration and the impact of migration on China's rural and urban economy."     

Migration and HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Although migration and HIV/AIDS have been examined separately in South Africa, researchers are still far from understanding in detail just how and to what extent the two are interconnected. The connections are difficult to unravel because HIV/AIDS arrived in the country at a time when population mobility and systems of labour migration were undergoing rapid transformation. Without a proper understanding of the complexity of the country's new migration regime, it will not be possible to understand either the role of mobility in the spread of the pandemic or the vulnerability to infection of mobile populations. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the interconnections between mobility and HIV and argues for more research that will further understanding of migrant vulnerability and the development of appropriate policies and models of intervention and care.     

Job Creation and Destruction in South Africa

Analysts of the South African labour market have mainly used household surveys to analyse the labour market. It has been more difficult to explore the labour demand of firms, as a result of limited data availability. We use the Quarterly Employment Statistics survey, an enterprise survey conducted by Statistics South Africa, to explore how South African firms create and destroy jobs, thereby shedding light on many of the policy questions that are relevant in a high unemployment society like South Africa. We find that job creation and destruction rates are similar to those found in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. There is little evidence that labour legislation creates rigidities that prevent firms from hiring or firing workers. We also find that larger firms are better net creators of jobs than small firms and that net job creation rates are negative in manufacturing. Our research has important policy implications – particularly for the South African National Planning Commission's 2030 plan, in which new jobs are envisaged to come mainly from small‐ and medium‐sized firms. Our research suggests that this scenario is not likely without changes to policy or legislation.