The role of politics in the migration of Zimbabwean teachers to South Africa

This paper contributes to the debate on the role played by the political crisis in Zimbabwe in causing teacher migration to South Africa in the presence of other social and economic drivers. The paper uses data collected through a questionnaire self-administered by 100 Zimbabwean teachers in South Africa (migrants) and another 100 in Zimbabwe (non-migrants). In-depth interviews with a few migrant teachers were used to supplement these data. Although it was the second most mentioned reason for the teachers' migration to South Africa, the role played by political violence or repression in Zimbabwe in causing this migration should not be downplayed. Most migrant teachers came from Zimbabwean schools affected by political violence to a large extent before or after the 2008 presidential elections, especially rural areas. Teachers that held positions or distributed opposition party regalia were mostly displaced by violence. There is an urgent need for political transformation to more democratic rule in Zimbabwe.     

AFTER MUGABE GOES – THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF ZIMBABWE

This Presidential address briefly outlines the developments in Zimbabwe since independence in 1980 leading up to the current political and economic crisis. The Zimbabwean situation is assessed within the conceptual framework of patrimonialism and predatory states. The origins of the Zimbabwean crisis are then analysed in their economic and political context leading to an eventual “fragile” or “failed” state. Evaluation of the crisis suggests that institutional damage has proceeded to the point at which only large scale economic and political reconstruction offers sustainable long term solutions, irrespective of when President Mugabe leaves office. The address concludes with an examination of the regional implications for Southern African Development Community – as well as the role of the global community – and outlines some of the core components of any reconstruction process‐to‐be in Zimbabwe.     

Beyond the crisis in Zimbabwe: Sorting out the land question

The depth of political and economic despair in Zimbabwe is beyond dispute. This paper situates the unfortunate picture in its historical context – drawing particular attention to the role of land in setting the country on its tragic trajectory, and showing how land remains the most fundamental problem precluding the restoration of political coherence and economic recovery. It argues that political and economic stability will be elusive until there is definitive closure to Zimbabwe's unpleasant past and at the same time clarity about property rights. It offers in addition some necessary first steps for the day when a new government is finally able to address and rectify the current chaos.     

A political economy analysis of the Korean economic crisis

This paper analyzes the causes of the Korean economic crisis from a political-economic perspective. The author points out that the economic causes which had been mentioned often such as overvalued won exchange rate and moral hazard of financial sector and corporate sector, have political origins. If the Korean economic crisis was caused by political economic factors, structural reform of the economy alone is not sufficient for economic recovery. Therefore, this paper argues, the behaviors of politicians, bureaucrats, and interest groups had been influential for resource allocation in the Korean economy. It concludes that the self-interest seeking activities of various interest groups should be properly controlled.     

Institutionalisation without internalisation. The cultural dimension of French-German conflicts on European Central Bank independence

When accepting the Maastricht treaty, the members of the Euro-zone agreed on the establishment of a very independent European Central Bank (ECB). Over the years, however, French political leaders systematically brought forward proposals undermining the ECB’s independence, much to the dismay of their German counterparts. This pattern of political disagreement on central bank independence has again surfaced during the current sovereign debt crisis, and has contributed to the discord amongst the Euro-zone members on the causes and proper solutions to the problems. This article conducts tests of various factors generally expected to influence the preference for central bank independence. It shows that economic explanations are unable to account for the persistent differences amongst European member-states on this issue. In contrast, national differences in political and economic culture and especially a nation’s score on the dimension Power Distance—its acceptance of centralisation of power in political leaders or institutions—does show a correlation with the different levels of internalisation of the norm of central bank independence. These findings show that institutionalisation of economic norms does not imply their internalisation by the political and the economic elite. In the broader context of current European politics, this may mean that even if European leaders will be able to come up with a common institutional answer to the current crisis, more profound convergence of their underlying economic and political cultures is needed for the successful and sustainable implementation of these solutions.     

Indonesia's Crisis: Implications for the Region

What began as a currency crisis in Indonesia in the third quarter of 1997 rapidly turned into a deep financial crisis with wide-ranging economic and social impacts, and finally became a serious political crisis that exploded in May 1998, forcing President Soeharto to resign. Soeharto's departure, however, did not resolve the crisis. He left behind an economy in shambles, a serious political vacuum and a highly polarised society. The issues to be dealt with are wide-ranging, including the loss of Indonesia's position in the international system, the domination of industry by foreign capital and the imposition by the IMF of a certain model of economic development. Regional and international aspects of the crisis have not become an issue in the public debate and policy discourse in Indonesia. This article looks at these implications.     

国际金融危机对世界及中国经济的影响

国际金融危机对全球经济的冲击仍在持续,对全球经济增长、国际金融市场、全球版图和治理模式将继续产生深远影响。在此背景下,本文分析了危机后全球经济增长率下滑的成因、国际金融市场的可能变化、全球政治经济权力的分配和运行的深刻调整,综合研判了国际金融危机对我国经济将会产生的长期影响。     

Children in Zimbabwe after the long crisis: Situation analysis and policy issues

Children in Zimbabwe suffered badly during the long crisis from circa 1990 to 2008 as the economy and social services collapsed, under-five mortality, maternal mortality and malnutrition rose, the number of orphans increased 20-fold and thousands of children experienced psychosocial trauma. Recent household surveys in Zimbabwe show that most indicators of child welfare remain at or below where they were 25 years ago. Many effects of the crisis on children are long term, even permanent, including prenatal and early childhood malnutrition, orphanhood, traumas from witnessing or being victims of violence, and disrupted education. This article analyses the Government of Zimbabwe's two most recent national development plans in relation to children's needs and rights as expressed in major international declarations. Suggestions are made for focusing on re-establishing basic services to break the cycle of harm to children, build children's capacities and deal with past traumas.     

Crisis,Stimulus Package and Migration in China

This paper analyzes the short‐term and long‐term effects that the global economic crisis and the investment priorities of the Chinese Government's stimulus package had on Chinese migrant flows between 2008 and 2014. Combining micro‐level household survey data and macro‐level statistics, the authors have found that in the short run, the regional and sectoral impact of the crisis, combined with the government's investment priorities, caused a reorientation of migration routes from the export‐oriented coastal provinces towards the central and western regions, from inter‐provincial migration towards intra‐provincial migration, and from manufacturing industry towards the construction sector. However, in the longer run, the decreasing attractiveness of the eastern region and the increasing attractiveness of the western region proved to be transitory, although the pre‐crisis relative advantage of the eastern region was not fully restored. What proved to be persistent were the attractiveness of the central region and the intra‐provincial migration in all three regions, and, in particular, the steady growth of migrants in the construction sector.     

Rural crisis and rural exodus? Local migration dynamics during the crisis of the 1840s in Flanders (Belgium)

This article analyses the migration dynamics in the wake of the 1845–1847 subsistence crisis in Flanders by means of a quantitative analysis of key demographic and economic data at municipal level. The data are unique in that they allow to directly measure in-migration and out-migration at the level of individual villages and towns. The results show that contrary to the powerful image of a push-driven rural exodus, it was not the villages hardest hit by the crisis that recorded the highest levels of migration. Rather, in-migration and out-migration rates often moved in tandem, and were determined primarily by existing migration traditions.     

Bank Indonesia and The Recent Crisis

This paper is a personal note describing the crisis as it unfolded while the writer was a key player in Indonesia's macroeconomic management. The crisis is seen as multi-faceted. It originated externally from a shock in the currency market that triggered a downward spiral from currency depreciation to fully-fledged crisis. The currency shock that hit the rupiah in July 1997 exposed in sequence the flaws embedded in the banking sector, the economic system, the social and the political system, flaws that had been obscured by long years of good economic performance. Through a complicated process of contagion and feedback effects—market disturbances, policy responses and market reactions—Indonesia deteriorated from a relatively well managed economy to the “worst case” among the Asian crisis economies. The paper discusses this process, the IMF's role, the bank closure issue, the currency board controversy and the author's dismissal as Governor of Bank Indonesia.     

从中、日企业的成长环境看全球金融危机对两国企业的影响

试图从政治经济、社会文化以及企业内部运作机制的差异使全球金融危机对中日两国企业不同程度的影响进行比较,以期为中国企业顺利度过危机提供借鉴。     

全球经济危机的政治经济学解读

当前蔓延全球的经济危机依然源于世界贫富差距不断扩大导致的供需严重失衡,次贷危机只是偶然的爆发点。只要全球政治一体化依然严重落后于全球经济一体化,世界性经济危机必然会长期存在。只有不断完善新自由主义经济发展政策,加强全球治理,缩小全球贫富差距,维护全球贸易、收支平衡,世界性的经济危机才能逐步缓解。     

美欧债务危机、金融动荡与中国应对策略

美欧债务危机暴露了美欧模式的深层次弊端,金融和经济危机正向社会和政治领域不断蔓延。依照美欧奉行的错误政策,中国无论投入多少资金挽救美欧债务危机都是毫无希望的,因为这些资金将落入金融垄断财团腰包而不是用于挽救经济,虽然能暂时换来美欧称赞但长期将会刺激更多的欲望,一旦无法持续满足其贪欲,对方就会翻脸,导致关系更加恶化。     

新形势下江苏高新技术产品出口研究

金融危机对我国整体的外贸出口造成了不小的冲击,其中高新技术产品的出口在新形势下对经济的拉动作用尤为突出。本文分析了金融危机对江苏省高新技术产品出口的影响,探讨其产业内部存在的问题,并提出相关政策建议。     

美国金融危机的社会根源及凯恩斯主义的回归分析

2007年以来，由次贷危机引起的金融风暴席卷全关，并蔓延到世界各地，这不仅对美国经济产生了严重影响，同时也对世界经济造成了不同程度的破坏。美国金融危机发生的社会根源在于其多年经济体制内存在的诸多弊端，以及外在消耗等。因此，凯恩斯主义回归美国经济生活是必要的。美国经济的发展前景，将不仅对世界经济的发展前景有很大影响，同时也将对国际政治格局产生重要和深远的影响。     

Short-term effects of policy reform on tourism and the macroeconomy in Zimbabwe: Applied CGE analysis

This article applies a short-term computable general equilibrium model for Zimbabwe to trace the direct and indirect effects of policy on the macroeconomy and tourism. The results show that the main reason why benefits from tourism are bypassing the country is because of poorly sequenced macroeconomic policies and a negative political climate. As and when the national political situation stabilises and the economy begins to grow again, an urgent macroeconomic thrust should be to implement a credible macroeconomic stabilisation programme, consisting in the main of reduced fiscal deficits, flexible foreign exchange markets and tight monetary policies to rein in inflation. However, because Zimbabwe is in arrears, there can be no programmes or lending with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Getting the budget in order without aid money will be very tough indeed, and the alternative is worse. It means debt deflation by means of hyperinflation.     

Governance and Growth: Lessons from the Asian Economic Crisis

The East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 has provoked yet another round of controversy on the institutional foundations of the region's growth. This article provides some flavour of this new work by examining three factors that impinge on economic policy and performance: the role of political regime type; the structure of business-government relations; and the design of government agencies. Institutional weaknesses contributed to the onset of the Asian financial crisis.     

阿根廷政治民主化进程和社会发展相关性分析

2001年12月,阿根廷陷入了举世瞩目的经济危机,对于这场危机,仅仅从经济上找原因是解释不通的,在非经济原因中,政治因素是主要的。通过这场危机的政治分析,可以让我们比较清晰的观察到阿根廷政治发展道路上的经验与挫折。     

超越紧缩——探索欧洲主权债务危机的终结之道

2009年希腊债务危机拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的帷幕,并将全球金融市场置于危险的境地,至今仍无见底迹象且呈现扩散的趋势。欧洲主权债务危机爆发的根源在于欧元区成员国之间的竞争力失衡,欧元区政策框架存在制度性缺陷使得问题进一步加剧。欧元区领导人推出一整套危机永久解决机制,然而此方案并未触及欧元区深层次的问题,距离债务危机的永久解决还有很长的路要走。危机的最终解决已经超越了纯粹的经济学范畴,它将取决于各国的政治决心和魄力以及欧洲精神的复兴,反思欧洲现有的经济与社会发展模式,寻求经济增长的新路径。