MINIMUM WAGE POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE URBAN FORMAL SECTOR

Since the late 1980s, minimum wages have become an important plank of the Indonesian government's labour policy. Their levels have increased faster in real terms than those of average wages and per capita gross domestic product and, as a result, minimum wages have become binding for the majority of formal sector workers. This study finds that the imposition of minimum wages has a negative and statistically significant impact on employment in the urban formal sector. The disemployment impact is greatest for female, young and less educated workers, while the employment prospects of white-collar workers are enhanced by increases in minimum wages. Some workers who lose jobs in the formal sector and have to relocate to the informal sector face lower earnings and poorer working conditions.     

Synergies in Labour Market Institutions: the Nonlinear Effect of Minimum Wages on Youth Employment

Empirical evidence on the effect of minimum wages on youth employment is inconclusive, with studies pointing to negative, positive or insignificant effects. In trying to explain some of the conflicting evidence, this research paper examines synergies of minimum wages with other labour market institutions using an unbalanced panel dataset of 19 OECD countries over 1985–2013. Institutions that enforce labour market rigidity, such as unemployment benefits and union density, are found to exacerbate the negative effect of minimum wages on youth employment, while government expenditure on training programmes for the unemployed dampen it. This finding of significant synergy effects indicates that panel data models which omit interactive terms between minimum wages and institutions might be misspecified. In addition, the analysis suggests that the negative effect of minimum wages is most severe in rigid labour markets with high unemployment benefits and union density. Therefore, policymakers need to consider the full spectrum of institutions they face before adjusting minimum wages.     

The changing fortunes of an aristocracy? Determinants of wages and conditions of employment in Kenya

This article examines the functioning of the labour market in the modern sector in Kenya and, in particular, considers the determinants of wages and other conditions of employment. An analysis of negotiated wages from collective agreements signed during 1974–75 suggests that measures of an ‘ability to pay’ characteristic of industries with limited competition in the product market and realizing above-average labour productivity are the best predictors of inter-industry wage differences. Locational and ownership variables are also found to be significant. Size of labour force is only significant for clerical wage rates. Four case studies suggest superior conditions of employment are positively associated with higher than average wages.     

Labour Market Flexibility,Wages and Incomes in Sub‐Saharan Africa in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of how African labour markets have performed in the 1990s. It is argued that the failure of African labour markets to create good paying jobs has resulted in excess labour supply in the form of either open unemployment or a growing self‐employment sector. One explanation for this outcome is a lack of labour market ‘flexibility’ keeping formal sector wages above their equilibrium level and restricting job creation. We identify three attributes of labour market flexibility. First, whether real wages decline over time; secondly, the tendency for wages to adjust in the face of unemployment; and thirdly, the extent of wage differentials between sectors and/or firms of various size. Recent research shows that real wages in Africa during the 1990s may have been more downwardly flexible than previously thought and have been surprisingly responsive to unemployment rates, yet large wage differentials between formal and informal sector firms remain. This third sense of the term ‘inflexibility’ can explain a common factor across diverse African economies — the high income divide between those working in large firms and those not. Those working in the thriving self‐employment sector in Ghana have something in common with the unemployed in South Africa — both have very low income opportunities relative to those in large firms.     

Sectoral Wage Rigidities and Labour and Product Market Institutions in the Euro Area

We estimate wage Phillips curve relationships between sectoral wage growth, unemployment and productivity in a country-industry panel of euro area countries. We find that institutional rigidities – such as labour and product market institutions and regulations – limit the adjustment of euro area wages to unemployment, in both upturns and downturns, particularly in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, in the construction and service sectors. In addition, there are further limitations in the response of wages to changes in unemployment during economic downturns which suggests that euro area wages are also characterised by significant downward wage rigidities, especially in the manufacturing sector. These results are robust to specifications that account for factors that may affect structural unemployment (such as duration-dependent unemployment effects), as well as changes in the skill composition of employment that may affect the evolution of aggregate wages. The results also hold for panels including or excluding the public sector (where wages may be determined differently to the private sector also due to the effects of fiscal consolidation on public sector wages during the crisis). From a policy perspective, reforms in product and labour markets which reduce wage rigidities can facilitate employment growth and enhance the rebalancing process in the euro area.     

Wage misalignment in CFA countries: were labour market policies to blame?

Wage rigidity, stemming from highly distortive labour marketpolicies, is a natural candidate to explain the overvaluationof the CFA franc after the adverse external shocks of the 1980s.This paper uses a variety of data sources to assess wage rigidityin CFA countries until the 1994 devaluation, and to analysewhether it was due to labour market policies. The paper showsthat wages were high in CFA countries, compared with both wagesin similar countries and the labour earnings of similar individualswithin the same countries. It also shows that wages were rigidin real terms, in the sense of following closely the fluctuationsof government wages and consumer prices, but it finds no evidenceof nominal wage rigidity, though. From an international perspective,minimum wages were not high enough to account for the observedwage misalignment. Moreover, their adjustment over time washighly responsive to real shocks. Private sector unions, inturn, seemed more instrumental in achieving wage moderationthan wage drift. Their members usually had lower wages thansimilar, non-unionised workers, which probably reflects the'subordinate' nature of the labour movement. The most likelycandidates to explain wage misalignment and real rigidity inCFA countries in the 1980s and early 1990s are therefore governmentpay policies and (possibly) limited competition in product markets.     

Indonesia's Industrial Transformation 1 Part I

It is now possible to obtain a fairly complete picture of Indonesian industril development, based on the 1986 Economic Census and subsequent Updates, the mcorporation of the huge oil and gas sector, and die earlier industrial data base. The picture is one of dramatic growth and transformation since the late 1960s when Indonesia was one of the least industrialised countries for its size. In this paper we examine the pattern and changing structure of industry, focusing on industry composition, regional industrialisation, ownership, scale and wages. Indonesia's industrial transformation is evident not only in rapid Output and employment growth, but also in the transition to more capital and skill-intensive industries, a narrowing in the earlier very large (almost ‘dualistic’) productivity differentials, strong productivity and wage growth, a broadening of the industrial base outside Java, and a probable reduction in concentration levels (at least by establishment).     

Interindustry Linkages in Indonesian Manufacturing 1

Deepening and strengthening of the industrial structure one of the prionties of industrial development in Indonesia. In this article, data from input-output tables have been used to examine the interindustry structure of the Indonesian non-oil manufacturing sector. Analysis of structural changes in manufacturing shows thaf exports have become the main engine of growth for the non-oil manufacturing sector. It is also found that this development is not inconsistent with the integration of the manufacturing sector in the economy, as manufactured exports on the whole are characterised by strong backward linkages. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that manufactured exports make significant contribution to employment, because both direct and total labour intensities of Indonesia's expomng sectors are relatively high.     

The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data.     

Trade and employment in Vietnam: how firms' trade matters

This paper aims to analyse how employment and wages change when a firm's trade status is altered. Using a detailed firm-level dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises, the study finds that how firms trade matters for firm employment and wages in Vietnam. The average effect of one-way trading (exporting or importing) is positive for both firms' total employment and female employment. Direct trading activities are associated with a higher level of employment than indirect trading activities by firms. The female employment effect of direct exports is nearly three times higher than direct imports. Indirect imports hurt firms' total employment and female employment. Both direct and indirect two-way traders experience higher growth in firm employment than direct-only traders. However, it is interesting to note that indirect two-way trading activities have a positive impact on female employment. Furthermore, the commencement of direct import is also associated with greater labour cost advantage.     

Wages,Productivity and Labour's Declining Income Share in Post‐Apartheid South Africa

The Marikana incident in 2012, as well as the protracted strikes by platinum miners, metal and postal workers in 2014 suggest that not all is well in the South African labour market. Even though those in employment are better off than the unemployed poor, macroeconomic data indicate that labour's share in gross value added has declined significantly during the first two decades following the first democratic election in 1994. A falling share of labour in income also means, by definition, that average labour productivity growth outstrips real wages growth. Data for South Africa suggest that productivity has indeed increased faster than wages in South Africa. This article argues that financialisation and more aggressive returns‐oriented investment strategies applied by for instance large investment institutions translated into higher required rates of return on capital, which in turn caused an increased implementation of capital‐augmenting labour‐saving technology that reduces labour's share in income.     

Affiliates and parent employment through foreign direct investment: a study case of substitutability or complementarity

How does outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect employment of multinationals in the home country? Does the impact of outward investment differ among manufacturing and service sectors? Using data on Italian MNEs, this paper examines the impact of Italian outward FDI on local employment between 1998 and 2006. In particular, we investigate the relationship existing between employment in the parent company and employment in foreign affiliates by distinguishing according to host-country location and sector of activity. The results suggest that the effects of Italian outward FDI on domestic employment differ according to the sector and the country of destination. In the manufacturing sector, a weak but significant relationship of labour substitutability is found for Italian MNEs producing low-technology products in foreign affiliates localized in high-wage countries. On the other hand, a significant North–south complementarity relationship in labour demands appears in the High and Medium-high- technology sectors. In the service sector, we find strong complementarity between employment in the parent firm and employment in foreign affiliates: in particular, this regards Italian MNEs producing knowledge-intensive services both in Western affiliates and CEEC locations. These results are robust when we control for endogeneity of output and parent wages.     

Survey of recent developments

The arrival of a new year has brought with it an increased focus on Indonesia's 2014 legislative and presidential elections. While voters may be disillusioned with established political figures, a strong presidential candidate has yet to emerge. Many voters appear to yearn for an experienced and uncorrupt leader with new and proactive policies, which is why Jakarta's new governor, Joko Widodo, is being viewed as a potential candidate.

The Constitutional Court has made two major, controversial rulings in recent months: the first concerned the upstream oil and gas regulator BPMigas, the second the international-standard pilot-project schools (Rintisan Sekolah Bertaraf Internasional, RSBIs). The Court ruled both institutions unconstitutional and called for their immediate disbandment.

In 2012, Indonesia's year-on-year economic growth slowed slightly, to a still healthy 6.2%, owing to continued weak global demand for its exports and a contraction in government expenditure. In contrast, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment were particularly strong, with respective increases of 25% and more than 142%. At 4.3%, inflation for the 2012 calendar year still remains well within the government's and Bank Indonesia's expectations. However, inflation expectations are high for 2013, owing to likely reforms to energy subsidies; the expected effect of bad weather on food prices; and increases in minimum wages, which attracted attention in 2012 because of their magnitude and their apparent disparity among regions. Concerns also exist that these rises in minimum wages will hamper Indonesia's international competitiveness and could discourage investment in labour-intensive industries.

Minimum-wage policy is also controversial because of doubts about its relevance to the genuinely poor sections of society – those in informal employment or with primarily subsistence income, who constitute a large proportion of the population. Indonesia has experienced a steady increase in income inequality in the last decade, indicating that the benefits of strong economic growth have not been shared equally. Potential reasons for this increasing inequality relate to labour-market segmentation amid a growing middle class, weak institutional foundations, and commodity-driven growth.

It appeared in 2012 that Indonesia has also been one of the world's poorest performers in HIV/AIDS prevention in recent years. While prevalence rates are low, the number of new HIV infections in 2011 was more than four times that of any other South Asian or Southeast Asian country, and the infection rate among the working-age population has risen by more than 25% since 2001. Infection rates among high-risk groups are also alarmingly high compared with those of other Southeast Asian countries. Targeted prevention, treatment and support programs among these groups are paramount.     

The Effect of Dismissals Protection on Employment: More on a Vexed Theme

This paper presents new results on the relationship between severance pay and labor market performance for a sample of 21 OECD countries, 1956-1984. Specifically, it evaluates Lazear's empirical argument that severance pay reduces employment and elevates joblessness. His findings are shown not to survive correction for errors in the data and the application of correct estimation procedures. Furthermore, adverse labor market consequences of severance pay are not detected in a dynamic characterization of the Lazear model. Limitations of the approach followed here are also addressed and contextualized.     

Labour Market Trends and Structures in ASEAN and the East Asian NIEs

The paper reviews the literature on labour markets in the region with special emphasis on the impact of economic growth and structural change on employment and wages. It deals with labour supply trends, employment creation outside agriculture (especially export orientated industrialization and new high-tech industries), labour absorption in agriculture, wage differentials and the functioning of rural and urban labour markets.
The creation of efficient and equitable labour market institutions and labour market flexibility have emerged as dominant issues in the NIEs. In the ASEAN-4, because of concentration of employment in low productivity and low wage jobs and underutilization of labour, the rate of modern sector labour absorption remains the major policy concern.     

Gender exclusion in social security protection: evidence from Korea

This study provides an evaluation of the impact of Korea's stratified labour market on the gaps in wages and social security coverage using the raw data from the supplementary surveys conducted by the Korean National Statistics Office. The study confirms the existence of a labour market stratified by employment type/gender/unionised or non‐unionised/firm size. The labour market structure is not only reflected in the distribution of wages but also in the social security coverage. The empirical result suggests that gender and employment type are the key variables determining the likelihood of social security exclusion. With the other conditions controlled, the female worker has a 65 per cent likelihood of exclusion, and the non‐standard worker has a 40.9 per cent likelihood. For female non‐standard workers, the situation is worse. Their likelihood of exclusion from social security soars to 80.1 per cent. The empirical results with respect to other fringe benefits not mandated by law exhibit the same pattern of social security exclusion. The empirical results emphasise the limitations of gender policy intended to rectify gender discrimination or exclusion alone and suggest a matrix policy that takes into consideration the complex labour market structure.     

Is there a trade-off between the employment and wages of unskilled African South Africans?

The possible trade-off between employment and wages has characterised most of South Africa’s labour market debates, particularly with regards to decent wages versus unemployment. In this article we explore the relationship between labour market earnings and the level of employment among African birth cohorts using labour force data from 1997 to 2011. We find that the association between an increase in the proportion of unskilled employed in a birth cohort and earnings is mediated by the sector of employment. While some sectors exhibit the expected negative association, there is a robust positive relationship between the first two quartiles of the earnings distribution within birth cohorts and the proportion of the birth cohort who are employed in unskilled occupations in the manufacturing and trade sectors. Because a range of market forces determine this relationship, further research is needed to unpack the reasons for such varied outcomes in order to better inform the debates on labour market interventions like the proposed National Minimum Wage and to appreciate the potential impact of such policy interventions on wages and employment.     

The Structure of Protection in Indonesia in 1989 1

Around the mid-1980s, Indonesia's protectionist regime supported an industrial structure in which industries were mainly oriented towards producing for the domestic market. Since then, trade policies have shifted to a more outward-looking strategy, stimulating the growth and diversification of non-oil manufactured exports. This paper attempts to quantify the nominal and effective rates of protection resulting from trade policies at the end of the 1980s. After an introduction in which the 1989 trade policies are discussed, estimates of nominal and effective rates of protection are presented. It is shown that though the level of protection has declined since 1987, it still varies widely across economic sectors. Furthermore, despite the more open trade strategy, the paper's findings show that the trade regime remains biased against exports. Finally, by examining some trade policy issues, the paper presents further ways of rationalising the structure of protection in Indonesia's industrial sector.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND RESERVATION WAGES IN WORKING-CLASS CAPE TOWN

Are the unemployed in South Africa ‘pricing themselves out of the labour market;’? This paper explores this proposition through an analysis of reservation wages in Cape Town's working class district of Khayelitsha/Mitchell's Plain. It argues that reservation wages are not out of line with predicted wages. This, in turn, suggests that unemployment in the area is not attributable to job seekers having unrealistically high reservation wages.     

The inversion of married women's labour supply and wage: Evidence from Thailand

This study investigates the labour supply behaviour of married Thai women with reference to their own and their spouse's wages. Controlling for spousal education and number of children, the main findings indicate an inverse relationship between married women's labour supply and wages, contrary to the evidence from developed countries. The estimated own wage elasticity ranges from ?1.70 to ?2.40 and the cross elasticity ranges from ?0.16 to ?0.17, indicating that the impact of own wage on labour supplied is much larger than spouse's wage. The results from disaggregation classified according to different socioeconomic backgrounds also show negative elasticities between own and spouses' wage across all subgroups, except for those with university degrees and higher income.