非对称信息条件下最优承包合同的研究

承发包双方在合同变更中的机会主义和信息的非对称性,产生了“敲竹杠”和投资过小现象以及隐藏信息的道德风险问题。运用委托-代理理论建立了非对称信息条件下的最优承包合同模型,对上述问题进行了研究。证明在承包商隐藏信息务件下,最优承包合同将使承包商的专用投资水平下降、工程项目工期延长、业主效用降低。     

基于不完全契约的债务契约治理效应

以中国制度环境为背景,在不完全金融契约和激励契约并存情况下构建动态模型,围绕企业家最优努力水平考察债务契约的治理效应.本文指出债务契约发挥激励效应的条件,并指出债务契约具有对激励契约的替代效应,同时指出债务契约具有协调效应以及通过再谈判协调投资者与企业家利益的债务调整方式.     

Optimal long-run inflation with occasionally binding financial constraints

This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate in a simple New Keynesian model with occasionally binding collateral constraints that intermediate-good firms face on hiring labor. The paper finds that the optimal long-run annual inflation rate is around 1.5% if the economy is hit by a total factor productivity (TFP) shock and nearly 2.5% if the economy is subject to a markup shock. The shadow value of the collateral constraint is akin to an endogenous cost-push shock. Differently from usual cost-push shocks, however, this shock is asymmetric as it takes non-negative values only. Since the mean of this asymmetric endogenous cost-push shock is positive, inflation is also positive on average. In addition, a binding collateral constraint resembles a time-varying tax on labor, which the monetary authority can smooth by setting a positive inflation rate. More generally, the basic result is related to standard Ramsey theory in that optimal policy smoothes distortions over time.     

负债与现金股利共存于激励契约的模型推演

信息传递理论和代理成本理论认为,在激励契约中,负债和现金股利可以相互替代,但是现实中负债与现金股利却共存于激励契约。文章通过模型推演,证明债务支付承诺的“刚性”在控制道德风险方面存在优势,但在传递信息方面存在不足。而现金股利支付承诺则具有较大“弹性”,该弹性能提高信息传递能力,以改善控制逆向选择(隐藏信息)和道德风险(隐藏行动)的效率,从而使负债与现金股利具有互补性,为负债与现金股利共存于公司的激励契约提供了合理的解释。     

What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?

We study the links between fiscal stimulus packages during times of crisis and households' liabilities. We do so by using household-level data on income and liabilities from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and estimating an empirical model along those in the literature on the consumption effects of these packages. We find that receiving a check from the government tends to translate into a reduction in outstanding liabilities for American households. This effect is robust to controlling for income levels and household size. The effects are driven by households whose income is below the median and by those who remain employed during the crisis.     

解决我国地方政府债务的思路

近年来,地方政府债务问题已成为影响我国经济长期稳定增长不可忽视的重要因素。解决我国地方政府债务的根本出路在于地方政府举债债券化,采用总体部署、阶段实施的解决方案,最终使地方政府债务走向透明化、法制化、市场化、规范化的道路。     

稳健财政政策下国债的适度规模与管理

2005年起,我国开始实行稳健的财政政策,经济运行方式发生了变化,国债政策作为以前积极财政政策调节经济方向的重要工具也应采取相应变化以促进经济向前发展.由此加强我国国债规模管理,不仅应从总体上缩小国债规模,更应该注重国债资金的使用效率,对其加强监督管理.     

Rethinking banking. Debt discounting and the making of modern money as liquidity

The article radically challenges the conventional view of modern banking as financial intermediation and rejects the mutually related notion, firmly entrenched in both the mainstream and alternative imaginary, of fractional reserve banking. By contrast, it argues that modern banks are peculiar financiers which, far from banking other people's money, are originally and primarily involved with making money by creating a most fundamental institution of capitalism: liquidity. Crucially, central to the bank-engendered creation of liquidity is a negotiation of value that does not involve any formal lending of cash by a creditor – in fact, it does not require a creditor at all. Instead, it relies on a quid pro quo of debts performed by means of discounting whereby a regime of fluid property relations of mutual indebtedness, commonly known as debt finance, is established. In this regime of liquidity, money is constructed as entirely a debtors’ money: it is the outcome of a process of monetisation of bank debts entangled with a capitalisation of other people's debts.     

Conflict and the Social Contract*

We consider social contracts for resolving conflicts between two agents who are uncertain about each other's fighting potential. Applications include international conflict, litigation and elections. Even though only a peaceful agreement avoids a loss of resources, if this loss is small enough, then any contract must assign a positive probability of conflict. We show how the likelihood of conflict outbreak depends on the distribution of power between the agents and their information about each other.     

投资管理人最优报酬合同三题

资产管理行业的发展是近年来我国金融系统最重要的结构性变化之一,而如何签订与投资管理人的报酬合同是关键问题。本文从委托——代理关系的视角,分析委托资产管理的特殊性,就最优报酬合同是否应该含有比较基准、是否应该是线性的以及业绩报酬是否应该是隐性的进行了探讨,指出投资管理人的最优报酬合同不应照搬一般的委托代理合同。     

Optimal Social Insurance with Endogenous Health*

In this paper, I analyze optimal insurance against unemployment and disability in a private information economy with endogenous health and search effort. Individuals can reduce the probability of becoming disabled by exerting prevention effort. I show that the optimal sequence of consumption is increasing for a working individual and constant for a disabled individual. During unemployment, decreasing benefits are not necessarily optimal. The prevention constraint implies increasing benefits while the search constraint demands decreasing benefits while being unemployed. However, if individuals respond sufficiently to search incentives, the latter effect dominates the former and the optimal consumption sequence is decreasing during unemployment.     

金融发展水平对地方政府债务适度规模的影响研究

在考虑金融发展水平对地方政府债务规模影响的基础上,构建了以金融发展水平和地方政府债务规模的门槛面板模型。实证研究发现,金融发展水平对地方政府债务规模存在“门槛效应”,金融发展水平越高的地区,地方政府债务规模门槛值也较高;金融发展水平中等的地区,地方政府债务规模门槛值相对较低;而一旦地方政府规模超过最高“门槛值”,地方政府较难通过金融市场来缓解债务压力。因此,长期来看,地方政府应将债务控制在一定适度范围内,并加强债务风险管控能力。     

Finance,investment and innovation: A theoretical and empirical comparative analysis

The paper compares the relative efficiency of country models in the relationship between finance and investments. Results, confirmed under three different panel data estimates (Arellano-Bond GMM method, random and fixed effect estimates) suggest that: i) the UK thick market reduces informational asymmetries for large firms and for those firms providing good signals to shareholders; ii) the Japanese vertical (between firms and banks) integration and horizontal (among firms) integration almost eliminates financial constraints (the horizontal integration effect) and equates agency costs across firms (the vertical integration effect). These results are consistent with the short-termist hypothesis which assumes that the Japanese economic system can process information more efficiently reducing managerial myopic behaviour and thereby determining positive effects on long term growth.     

Is debt conservatism the solution to financial constraints? An empirical analysis of Japanese firms

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates why firms choose the conservative financing strategy known as non-positive net debt policy, which is a more recent prevalent trend among Japanese firms. The analysis reveals that Japanese firms are more likely to be financially conservative if they are smaller, older and more profitable and have fewer growth opportunities and tangibility. The survival analysis further investigates the duration of conservative debt policy and ordinary debt policy. The evidence shows that firms adopt/abandon the conservative policy with different motivations and preferences over debt conservatism. In particular, we argue that the more financially constrained firms abandon the conservative debt policy sooner than their counterparts, while less financially constrained firms abandon the ordinary (less conservative) debt policy sooner than their counterparts. The results suggest that a firm uses a conservative debt policy in terms of net leverage as a temporary buffer to mitigate financial constraints.     

金融发展、债务治理与公司价值——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

文章运用新制度经济学的基本理论,以我国沪深两市A股上市公司2000-2006年的数据为样本,实证分析了金融发展促进经济增长的微观作用机制.研究发现,若债务比例增加1%,金融发展水平高的地区与低的地区相比,公司市场价值平均多提高[作者单位].54%,并且,债务融资与公司价值的正相关关系只在金融发展水平高的地区才存在.这表明,金融发展水平对债务治理作用的发挥有重要影响,公司所处地区的金融发展程度越高,债务治理的作用越强,越有利于提高公司的价值.     

债务融资的国民负担与可承受国债规模分析

本文在对债务融资的国民负担进行描述的基础上,给出了含有非排挤性投资的政府跨时预算约束,从而证明了政府非排挤性投资的积极作用。同时,根据多马的研究范式,进一步给出了含有税收增长率的最大可承受国债规模的决定条件,并对我国目前的财政状况进行了实证分析。分析表明,积极的财政政策并没有使我国的国债规模与赤字规模超出国民经济可承受范围,我国的财政政策仍然有相当宽余的实际运作空间。     

学习能力影响下供应链企业间知识交易的最优合约配置!

在知识买方——供应链中的供应商的学习能力为其私人信息的情况下,知识卖方——制造商通过设计将知识交易量与原材料产品折扣价格相结合的合约菜单来甄别供应商的学习能力类型。在此基础上,建立信息不对称情形下的知识交易模型,通过模型求解得出最优的合约配置,并结合信息对称情形下的基准情形对合约菜单的相关性质进行了分析。最后利用数值算例对上述相关性质进行了说明。     

公共债务对实体经济的传导机制及政策启示

在我国经济发展的“新常态”下,公共债务将如何作用于实体经济的问题值得关注与思考。文章简要描述了国内外公共债务的实践历程及现状,并在对早期西方公共债务理论以及近期相关文献梳理的基础上,关于公共债务对实体经济的传导机制进行系统性分析。研究表明,公共债务分别通过三个层面实现对实体经济的传导：基于宏观层面,通过影响生产要素投入,实现公共债务对实体经济产出的传导;基于微观层面,通过刺激消费与投资,实现公共债务对实体经济总需求的传导;基于金融层面,通过调整流动性和利率,实现公共债务对实体经济运行的传导。因此,应当合理调控公共债务规模,提高公共债务的投资效率,有效地发挥公共债务对实体经济长期发展的推动作用。     

现实信贷市场中抵质押品的功能探析——基于信息经济学商业银行的研究视角

文章从信息经济学、信贷配给理论、风险管理理论和巴塞尔新资本协议等视角出发,论述了有关押品的性质、功能和角色,分析了押品发挥作用的基本原理和传导机制,形成了有关现实信贷市场中抵质押品功能的9条结论。最后,结合我国信贷市场发展实际,对商业银行加强押品管理提出了初步建议。     

公共财政框架下我国政府或有债务风险管理

目前我国公共财政部门存在着一定的财政风险,特别是隐性风险和或有风险更是不容忽视。在考察我国政府或有负债风险构成的基础上,从公共财政的角度,对财政风险产生的制度原因予以宏观分析,进一步指出我国政府或有负债形成的深层原因。研究表明,我国必须加强对政府或有债务的管理,建立面向全球经济的财政风险预算管理体制,从而减少或有债务风险对财政稳定性的冲击。