COMPARISONS OF PURCHASING POWER, REAL OUTPUT AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING IN JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA AND THE U.S.A., 1975–85

This study presents binary comparisons of real output and labour productivity in manufacturing in Japan, South Korea and the U.S.A. in 1975, made according to an "industry of origin approach." The 1975 benchmark comparisons have been updated to 1985. Value added per hour worked in Japanese manufacturing increased from 54 percent of the U.S. level in 1975 to 76 percent in 1985. In certain important branches such as electrical machinery, metal products and machinery and transport equipment, productivity leadership shifted to Japan. In South Korea, labour productivity in manufacturing increased rapidly from 1975 to 1985, both in absolute terms and relative to the U.S.A. Nevertheless, in 1985 value added per hour worked was only 14 percent of the U.S. level.     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

The Information Society: Implications for Economic Institutions and Market Theory

The extraordinary growth and reduction in inequalities achieved between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s by the High Performing Asian Economies (HPAEs) — namely Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan (collectively called "the four tigers"), Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand — has been discussed at great length in the economic literature. However, no clear explanation has been suggested for the poor performance of other Asian economies, like India, which share the HPAEs geographical proximity and similar economic structures. This paper shows that the stark contrast between the high growth rates and declining income inequalities of HPAEs on one side, and low growth rates and stable (or rising) income inequalities of India and other Asian countries on the other side, may at least in part be explained by the different role that human capital has played in those economies between the mid-1960s and mid-1990s.     

家族企业治理模式的国际比较及其对中国的启示

美英两国在保留家族企业最终控制权的同时,有选择地将现代公司制度的优势融入家族企业,形成了比较成熟、规范的企业治理模式;日、德两国家族企业家族色彩浓厚,以保障相关者利益的思想与人本主义的融合为基础,是一种内部监控型模式;东南亚包括韩国、香港、台湾等国家或地区在儒家家族传统观念基础上,建立了以家族为代表的控股股东主权模式.比较分析三种模式的共异点,对我国家族企业的治理和发展可以得出诸多重要的启示.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.S.R. IN THE 1980s

In 1989 Soviet authorities released unprecedented new data on the size distribution of income in the U.S.S.R. in the 1980s, including the distributions by republics. With the goal of providing a benchmark for evaluating the effect of current and future economic reforms on income distribution in the former Soviet Union, this paper estimates inequality measures for the new data. The estimation uses a simple nonparametric technique based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to fit the Soviet data to a lognormal distribution. The results suggest that, for income from official sources, (1) inequality in the Soviet Union as a whole declined throughout the 1980s-both before and after Gorbachev's accession in 1985, and (2) income inequality was greater in the poorer, southern republics of the U.S.S.R. than in the north. While the inclusion of unofficial (unreported) private income would probably reinforce the second of these two trends, its effect on the first cannot be determined on the basis of available information.     

SHORT-CUT ESTIMATES OF REAL INCOME

The United Nations International Comparisons Project (ICP) has conducted in-depth purchasing-power parity (PPP) studies of the so-called "benchmark" countries (of which there were 34 in the 1975 sample). In the absence of PPP studies of the rest of the countries in the world, the ICP team has constructed "short-cut" estimates of real income (that is, income converted from domestic currency to dollars at PPP) for the nonbenchmark countries. The idea of a "short-cut" procedure for estimating real income is to run a regression of real income on nominal income (that is, income converted from domestic currency to dollars at a market exchange rate) and other variables among the benchmark countries and then to use this regression to estimate real income for the nonbenchmark countries. The most recent ICP short-cut estimates have been based on regressions of real income on nominal income and the foreign trade ratio. The present study expands the list of candidate variables that might be included in a short-cut regression. The list includes educational attainments, the share of minerals in GDP, the trade balance, the growth of the money supply, tourist receipts, and the share of nontradables in GDP. The theory underlying the inclusion of each of these variables is discussed. Regressions are run with various combinations of these variables and some short-cut estimates of real income for 76 market economies are presented.     

The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia–Pacific Real Exchange Rates

A productivity-based model of East Asian relative prices and real exchange rates is tested using calculated productivity levels for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time-series regressions of the exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate such a relationship for Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines (and Indonesia and Korea when oil prices are included). Panel regression provides slightly more encouraging results when the panel encompasses a subset of countries (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines). Neither government spending nor the terms of trade appear to be important factors.     

Indian Income Inequality, 1922‐2015: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?

We combine household surveys and national accounts, as well as recently released tax data to track the dynamics of Indian income inequality from 1922 to 2015. According to our benchmark estimates, the top 1 percent of earners captured less than 21 percent of total income in the late 1930s, before dropping to 6 percent in the early 1980s and rising to 22 percent in the recent period. Our results appear to be robust to a range of alternative assumptions seeking to address numerous data limitations. These findings suggest that much more can be done to promote inclusive growth in India. We also stress the need for more transparency on income and wealth statistics, which is key to allow an informed democratic debate on inequality.     

全球化与20世纪90年代以来东亚制造业的转移和重组

本文的目的是:(1)讨论当存在产业内贸易时,三个通常用来衡量比较优势和竞争力的指标之间的关系;(2)检验20世纪90年代以来,东亚几个经济体中制造业活动的转移和重组。结果显示,制造业活动已经从日本、韩国和台湾地区转移到了中国。对于低技术劳动密集的产业(例如,SITC82,83,84和85),这种转移是基于比较优势,而产生了产业间贸易。然而,对于更复杂的技术密集产品(例如:SITC72和SITC87),生产过程已被分成很多模块,并在不同的国家进行生产。这种制造方式的重组是基于规模经济效应,而产生了产业内贸易。     

AN EXPLORATORY COMPARISON OF INCOME RISK IN GERMANY AND THE UNITED STATES

Using longitudinal data, 1 estimate the impact of redistribution on the welfare cost of income risk in Germany and the United States. The estimates account fully for behavior because individuals in each country have responded optimally to that country's policy. The results indicate that the welfare cost of income risk is 5.4 percent of disposable income in Germany, 8.5 percent in the U.S. Redistribution has reduced these risks from their pre-tax, pre-transfer levels by 43 percent in Germany, 21 percent in the U.S. The political importance of income security is evident in both countries, as risk relief often eliminates the net burden of redistributive taxes among middle-class households. The conclusions are robust across several models of income expectations.     

中国各区域对外贸易的决定因素分析--中国八大区域与东亚三经济体间的贸易

本文将中国划分为8大区域,通过分析这8大区域与韩国、台湾地区、日本之间的贸易趋势,寻找影响中国各区域国际贸易的主要因素。韩国、台湾地区、日本这三个东亚经济体作为中国的主要贸易伙伴,在中国的市场占有率达到40%,在同中国的贸易中存在着区域和商品种类上的差别。即韩国在东北地区、台湾在南部沿海地区、日本则在中国大部分地区显示出较高的市场占有率,并且它们在中国各沿海地区的产品出口种类趋于相同,说明东亚三个经济体在中国各地区的竞争越来越激烈。通过对东亚三个经济体同中国各区域产业内贸易趋势的分析,发现,收入水平高、产业结构相对高级的东部沿海区域表现出相互独立的贸易结构。这种现象可以进一步解释为各区域之间还存在着较独立的产业结构。产业内贸易大部分由垂直产业内贸易构成,即同东亚三个经济体形成了商品质量和价格差别的同一品种之间的贸易。最后,通过对产业内贸易决定因素的计量分析,可以看出中国各区域的人均收入水平、外国直接投资额、工业产品出口比重等是决定垂直产业内贸易的主要因素。     

TOP INCOMES IN NEW ZEALAND 1921–2005: UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF MARGINAL TAX RATES, MIGRATION THREAT, AND THE MACROECONOMY

Using taxation statistics, we estimate the income share held by top income groups in New Zealand over the period 1921–2005. We find that the income share of the richest fell during the 1930s, rose again after the Second World War, and steadily declined from the late-1950s until the mid-1980s. From the mid-1980s until the mid-1990s, top income shares rose rapidly, particularly at the very top of the distribution. We present evidence that top marginal tax rates and changing top income shares in Australia and the United Kingdom may have contributed to fluctuations in the income share of the richest 1 percent. Past economic growth does not seem to have a strong effect on the income share of the top percentile group.     

AN ESTIMATE OF THE SIZE ANL STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE EARLY ROMAN EMPIRE

On the basis of rough estimates from the expenditure as well as from the income side, it is suggested that the national product per head of the Roman Empire at the death of Augustus (AD 14) was somewhat below 400 sesterces (31 g gold) yielding an aggregate national product of fully HS 20 billion for a population of 55 million and that these figures were approximately valid from the late first century BC to the mid-second century AD. The share of government expenditures in national product was very low, probably not above five percent, and that of gross capital expenditures even lower, probably not in excess of two percent. An attempt is also made to appraise the concentration of personal income and it is estimated that the 600 senatorial families, representing approximately the top 0.04 per m of the population, received about 0.6 percent of total personal income while the share of the top three percent of income recipients was in the order of 20–25 percent of total personal incomes. The second part of the article compares these estimates as well as a few indicators of the standard of living and of welfare in the early Roman Empire with the corresponding figures for a few countries before the industrial revolution and for mid-20th century less developed countries.     

亚洲国家和地区经济发展方式转变研究——基于“中等收入陷阱”视角的分析

历史上有许多国家和地区通过增长动力机制的转换和经济发展体制的改革,跨越了中等收入陷阱,实现了经济发展方式的转变。韩国、日本、新加坡和中国台湾与大陆文化相似、国情相近,其经济发展方式转变的经验对中国具有尤为重要的借鉴意义。通过对这些典型亚洲国家和地区经济发展方式转变经验的总结,我们得出以下四条基本启示:一是转变经济发展方式包含经济与社会自然和谐发展;二是经济发展方式转变要坚持市场导向与政府干预相结合;三是经济结构调整是转变经济发展方式的重点方向;四是自主创新是转变经济发展方式的重要支撑。     

关于中国与OECD国家购买力平价比较研究结果及其评价

本文分析了中国购买力平价研究的背景,简要介绍了购买力平价测算的基本方法。在国家统计局以部分城市参加OECD1999年一轮购买力平价项目试验性合作研究的基础上,应用国际通用的方法,测算了1999年中国与OECD国家购买力平价比较的结果,即1美元=4.67元人民币,相当于当年汇率的57%;同时,介绍了国内外关于中国购买力平价研究的主要结果,分析它们之间存在差异的原因。通过对比分析认为,本研究结果基本合理,反映中国购买力平价研究的共同趋势。     

Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence

This paper aims to assess the empirical implications of fiscal financing in Korea and study how they differ from those of the U.S. We estimate two versions of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model—a small open economy (SOE) model for Korea and its closed economy counterpart for the U.S.—in which the former nests the latter as a special case. The fiscal policy specification posits that government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor income, capital income and consumption expenditures respond to the level of government debt and the state of economic activity. Analysis of the data from 2000 to 2015 shows that distortionary capital taxes play a critical role in stabilizing government debt in the U.S., whereas non-distorting fiscal instruments are the primary means of fiscal adjustment in Korea. Regarding the magnitude of debt-financed fiscal stimuli, the substantial trade openness of Korea is significant in that it produces relatively smaller government spending and transfer multipliers compared to the U.S.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF HOURS OF WORK AND REAL INCOME IN CANADA FROM THE 1880s TO 1930: LONG-RUN TRENDS AND WORKERS' PREFERENCES

The first set of hours of work estimates constructed for Canada and its regions for the 1880–1930 period is presented in this article. These estimates suggest a trend decline in hours of work, especially following First World War. In addition, these estimates suggest that the decline in hours of work came at no or little cost in terms of real weekly income. The trends uncovered for Canada are found to be similar to those revealed for the U.S. In effect, by the early twentieth century workers were realizing their long expressed preferences for a shorter workweek at no loss in real income.     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

Catching Up and Convergence: Long-run Growth in East Asia

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long‐run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching‐up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time‐series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated.