The Reservation Wage Unemployment Duration Nexus*

A thorny problem in identifying the determinants of reservation wages and particularly the role of continued joblessness in their evolution is the simultaneity issue. We deploy a control function approach to the problem that involves conditioning elapsed duration on completed unemployment duration in the reservation wage equation. Our analysis confirms that the use of elapsed duration alone compounds two separate and opposing influences. Only with the inclusion of completed duration is the negative effect of continued joblessness on reservation wages apparent.     

Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve

Abstract.  The wage curve is the negative relationship that links wage levels to the unemployment rate. It fits accurately with modern non-competitive labour-market models, but goes against a Phillips-curve modelling, because the latter ties wage growth to the unemployment rate. In this article, we present a comprehensive review of these non-competitive models, highlighting recent contributions that try to eliminate the possible 'gap' that exists between the concepts of the wage curve, on the one hand, and the Phillips curve, on the other.     

The Last Word on the Wage Curve?

Abstract.  Since 1990, there has been extensive international research on the responsiveness of wages of individuals to changing local labour market conditions. For many countries, an inverse relationship between wages and local unemployment rates has been found. In their book, The Wage Curve , Blanchflower and Oswald argued that the unemployment elasticity of pay is around −0.1 in most countries. In a 1995 literature survey, Card referred to this striking empirical regularity as being close to an 'empirical law of economics'. Nonetheless, reported elasticities do vary, even excluding outliers, between about −0.5 and +0.1. There is also considerable heterogeneity among wage curve studies in terms of data and model specification. This paper carries out meta‐analytic techniques on a sample of 208 elasticities derived from the literature to uncover the reasons for the differences in empirical results across studies. Several causes of variation are identified. There is also clear evidence of downward publication bias. In addition, many reported t ‐statistics are biased upwards due to the use of aggregate unemployment rates. A maximum likelihood method and a trimming procedure are used to correct for these biases. Both methods give similar results for our sample. An unbiased estimate of the wage curve elasticity at the means of study characteristics is about −0.07.     

Instability of the Inflation–Output Trade‐Off and Time‐Varying Price Rigidity

This paper studies the time instability of the Phillips curve by paying particular attention to the inflation environment and price stickiness. We identify various inflation episodes and investigate the changing nature of the curve across these periods for five advanced countries over 1960–2013. We show that the mean inflation, the slope of the curve and the threshold mean inflation that erodes price rigidity are time varying. The inflation environment is a key determinant of the inflation–output relationship, rejecting the evidence of a flat curve and restoring the inflation–output trade‐off above certain inflation thresholds.     

The Ideal Inflation‐Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest with Overlapping Generations*

Abstract Irving Fisher long advocated inflation‐indexed bonds. But with what index? I prove in the context of a multicommodity CAPM world that the best welfare‐improving bond pays the minimum money needed to achieve the same utility, and not the minimum needed to buy an ideal commodity bundle. Irving Fisher also developed and advocated the impatience theory of interest. But in OLG economies, the rate of interest is determined by population growth, not impatience. I reconcile this contradiction by proving that in stationary OLG economies with land, the interest rate at the unique steady state does depend on impatience. Indeed, the proposition that greater impatience creates higher interest rates holds more generally in OLG with land than in Fisher's two‐period model, because then income effects and substitution effects naturally work in the same direction.     

The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time*

Although widely used in many areas of applied sciences, wavelet analysis has not fully entered the economic discipline yet. In this article we apply wavelet analysis to one of the most investigated relationships is in empirical macroeconomics: the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. Using US postwar data we find a frequency‐dependent relationship of a sort that is consistent with Phillips’ original insights. It also turns out that this relationship is remarkably stable over the 1948–93 period, but not in the aftermath, as a consequence of a process of adaption of the wage formation process to a low inflation environment.     

Macroeconomic Forecasting using Low‐frequency Filters

We consider univariate low‐frequency filters applicable in real‐time as a macroeconomic forecasting method. This amounts to targeting only low frequency fluctuations of the time series of interest. We show through simulations that such approach is warranted and, using US data, we confirm empirically that consistent gains in forecast accuracy can be obtained in comparison with a variety of other methods. There is an inherent arbitrariness in the choice of the cut‐off defining low and high frequencies, which calls for a careful characterization of the implied optimal (for forecasting) degree of smoothing of the key macroeconomic indicators we analyse. We document interesting patterns that emerge: for most variables the optimal choice amounts to disregarding fluctuations well below the standard business cycle cut‐off of 32 quarters while generally increasing with the forecast horizon; for inflation and variables related to housing this cut‐off lies around 32 quarters for all horizons, which is below the optimal level for federal government spending.     

The Turnover‐Reducing Effects of the Minimum Wage may Harm the Economy

This article surveys the literature on the effects of the minimum wage and argues that the observed reduction in turnover rates is not necessarily desirable. If a curvilinear relationship exists between firm productivity and turnover, the effects of the minimum wage on reducing turnover may create a distance between the actual turnover rate and the optimal rate. Consequently, even if we accept the proposition that minimum wages have little impact on employment, they may reduce productivity or job growth in sectors not directly affected by the minimum wage.     

Immigrants’ Wage Growth and Selective Out‐Migration

This paper examines immigrant wage growth taking selective out‐migration into account using administrative data from the Netherlands. Addressing a limitation in the previous literature, we address the potential endogeneity of immigrants’ labour supply and out‐migration decisions on their earning profiles using a correlated competing risk model. We distinguish between labour and family migrants, given their different labour market and out‐migration behaviours. Our findings show that accounting for selective labour supply is as important as accounting for selective out‐migration. Controlling only for out‐migration selectivity would underestimate immigrants’ wage growth, whilst controlling only for labour market selectivity would overestimate their wage growth. This shows that different selections are important for different types of migrants.     

Macroeconomic forecast accuracy in a data‐rich environment

The performance of six classes of models in forecasting different types of economic series is evaluated in an extensive pseudo out‐of‐sample exercise. One of these forecasting models, regularized data‐rich model averaging (RDRMA), is new in the literature. The findings can be summarized in four points. First, RDRMA is difficult to beat in general and generates the best forecasts for real variables. This performance is attributed to the combination of regularization and model averaging, and it confirms that a smart handling of large data sets can lead to substantial improvements over univariate approaches. Second, the ARMA(1,1) model emerges as the best to forecast inflation changes in the short run, while RDRMA dominates at longer horizons. Third, the returns on the S&P 500 index are predictable by RDRMA at short horizons. Finally, the forecast accuracy and the optimal structure of the forecasting equations are quite unstable over time.     

Inter‐industry Wage Differences and Individual Heterogeneity*

Two well‐established findings are apparent in the analyses of individual wage determination: cross‐section wage equations can account for less than half of the variance in earnings and there are large and persistent inter‐industry wage differentials. We explore these two empirical regularities using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We show that around 90% of the variation in earnings can be explained by observed and unobserved individual characteristics. However, small – but statistically significant – industry wage premia do remain, and there is also a role for a rich set of job and workplace controls.     

Efficiency Wages and the Economic Effects of the Minimum Wage: Evidence from a Low‐Wage Labour Market*

This article exploits a natural experiment provided by the 1999 introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) to test for efficiency wage considerations in a low‐wage sector, the UK residential care homes industry. The empirical results provide support to the wage‐supervision trade‐off prediction of the shirking model and suggest that the NMW may have operated as an efficiency wage in the care homes sector, leading to a reduction in supervision costs. These findings can explain earlier evidence suggesting that although the NMW introduction increased wages dramatically in the care homes sector, it generated only moderate negative employment effects.     

Linking Individual‐Level Knowledge Sourcing to Project‐Level Contributions in Large R&D‐Driven Product‐Development Projects

This paper focuses on the link between individuals’ knowledge sourcing and their creative contributions, such as new ideas and solutions in R&D‐driven product‐development projects; creative contributions were both self‐ and peer‐assessed. The paper reveals that, for individuals, knowledge sources internal to the organization were generally regarded as more important than external knowledge sources. However, external parties such as customers, partners, and suppliers constitute the knowledge source that best predicted creative contributions at the project level. Informal external contacts were deemed the least important knowledge source by individuals; however, this was positively related to self‐assessed creative contributions. The paper thus finds that there is a discrepancy between the knowledge sources deemed important by individuals and the sources that are associated with creative contributions at the project level.     

效率工资、效率工资增长模型

本文首先介绍了效率工资的经典模型——夏皮罗一斯蒂格里兹模型,探讨了效率工资的形成以及非自愿失业出现的原因,及失业的“威胁”作用。另外,本文在符合效率工资模型的基本假定条件下,融合代理理论和强制性储蓄假说,构建了效率工资增长模型,提出了效率工资增长模型的关键等式,且由等式隐含地决定了效率工资的最优增长率。此外,还分别分析了效率工资的最优增长率与贴现率、厂商生产技术和工人偏好之间的关系。最后,探讨了最优就业路径和调整成本问题等等。     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time‐Varying Volatility

This paper compares alternative models of time‐varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real‐time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the USA. We consider Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form of time‐varying volatility, precisely random walk stochastic volatility, stochastic volatility following a stationary AR process, stochastic volatility coupled with fat tails, GARCH and mixture of innovation models. The results show that the AR and VAR specifications with conventional stochastic volatility dominate other volatility specifications, in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Network‐Performance Relationship in Knowledge‐Intensive Contexts—A Meta‐Analysis and Cross‐Level Comparison

This study examines the generalizability of the network‐performance relationship across individual and group levels, focusing on knowledge‐intensive contexts. Drawing on a meta‐analytical approach, we synthesize the results of 102 empirical studies to test whether network characteristics such as centrality, brokerage, and tie strength similarly influence the job performance of individuals and groups. Results show that while there are no differences in the direction of the network‐performance relationship across levels, there are substantial differences in magnitude. Individual performance profits more strongly from a high number of direct connections, whereas groups reap higher benefits from brokerage positions. Additional analyses reveal that the network measurement method, tie content, and performance criteria function as moderators of the network performance relationship, but their influence is consistent neither across network characteristics nor across levels. By meta‐analytically comparing and contrasting the network‐performance relationship for individuals and groups, we contribute to multilevel research on networks and organizations. Particularly, we move toward the development of a multilevel homology theory of networks. Implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re‐employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain*

We provide the first Spanish evidence about the effects on re‐employment probabilities of variations in benefit levels and time‐to‐exhaustion. Increases in unemployment insurance (UI) benefit levels had a small disincentive effect on the re‐employment hazard on average. Around this average, there were larger disincentive effects for men with elapsed durations between 4 and 18 months, whereas for men unemployed longer than 18 months, or for men resident in the south, the effect was negligible. Re‐employment hazards increased when UI exhaustion was imminent, but the change was small. Extensions to unemployment assistance eligibility in 1989 for men aged 45+ years lowered re‐employment probabilities.     

Relative Risk Aversion and Power‐Law Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters

The coefficient of relative risk aversion is notoriously difficult to estimate. Recently, Barro and Jin (On the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, Econometrica 2011; 79 (3): 434–455) have come up with a new estimation approach that fits a power‐law model to the tail of distribution of macroeconomic disasters. We show that their results can be successfully replicated using a more refined power‐law fitting methodology and a more comprehensive dataset. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.