Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks

This paper presents an extension of the stochastic volatility model which allows for level shifts in volatility of stock market returns, known as structural breaks. These shifts are endogenously driven by large return shocks (innovations), reflecting large pieces of market news. These shocks are identified from the data as being bigger in absolute terms than the values of two threshold parameters of the model: one for the negative shocks and one for the positive shocks. The model can be employed to investigate different sources of stock market volatility shifts driven by market news, without relying on exogenous information. In addition to this, it has a number of interesting features which enable us to study the effects of large return shocks on future levels of market volatility. The above properties of the model are shown based on a study for the US stock market volatility.     

A sequential model for cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper develops a sequential decision-making model for assisting law enforcement officials in allocating resources during a crackdown operation on illicit drug markets. The sequential crackdown model (SCM) considers a probabilistic framework, where the probability of incarceration of a dealer and the probability of dealing are modeled as a function of the size of a drug market, crackdown enforcement level, drug dealer's financial hardship, and other market characteristics.The model was developed and tested in consultation with enforcement officials from Philadelphia, PA and Camden, NJ. We present a detailed, step-by-step implementation scheme for updating parameters on each day of the crackdown. Parameter estimation along with examples of model usage is provided. Through these examples, we illustrate how the SCM could be helpful in understanding the response of illicit drug markets to various enforcement strategies. We further show conditions under which an alternating crackdown policy (referred to as a crackdown-backoff) or a consistent use of maximum possible enforcement would be optimal strategies for managing a drug crackdown operation. Within the context of the model and parameter estimates, we show that a much quicker and less costly collapse could be implemented if the available enforcement resources are increased. Finally, the model provides possible conditions under which a crackdown operation would be unsuccessful in eliminating a drug market.     

Panel data estimates of the production function and product and labor market imperfections

Consistent with two models of imperfect competition in the labor market—the efficient bargaining model and the monopsony model—we provide two extensions of a microeconomic version of Hall's framework for estimating price‐cost margins. We show that both product and labor market imperfections generate a wedge between factor elasticities in the production function and their corresponding shares in revenue, which can be characterized by a ‘joint market imperfections parameter’. Using an unbalanced panel of 10,646 French firms in 38 manufacturing industries over the period 1978–2001, we can classify these industries into six different regimes depending on the type of competition in the product and the labor market. By far the most predominant regime is one of imperfect competition in the product market and efficient bargaining in the labor market (IC‐EB), followed by a regime of imperfect competition in the product market and perfect competition or right‐to‐manage bargaining in the labor market (IC‐PR), and by a regime of perfect competition in the product market and monopsony in the labor market (PC‐MO). For each of these three predominant regimes, we assess within‐regime firm differences in the estimated average price‐cost mark‐up and rent sharing or labor supply elasticity parameters, following the Swamy methodology to determine the degree of true firm dispersion. To assess the plausibility of our findings in the case of the dominant regime (IC‐EB), we also relate our industry and firm‐level estimates of price‐cost mark‐up and extent of rent sharing to industry characteristics and firm‐specific variables respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of selected policy and market factors upon student flows from high school to competing destinations

The impact of selected policy and market factors upon high-school leavers' decisions regarding three competing alternatives—labor-force entry, university education, non-university education—is examined using Ontario data on grade 13 students covering 1965–1978.The specific policy and market factors selected include tuition fees, student-aid, family income, graduates' wages, youth unemployment. Based upon economic-related theories of investor and consumer behaviour, predictions regarding how these factors influence students' choices are presented. Empirical tests of these predictions are then obtained by computing transition-rate elasticities estimated from a multinomial logistic model using maximum-likelihood techniques.The results suggest that both policy and market factors influence students' choices on the margin, and therefore exercise control over the flows from high-school to various competing destinations. The implications of these results are examined for policy-making and planning at the post-secondary level.     

IDENTIFYING FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE PRODUCT INNOVATION: A CASE STUDY APPROACH

This article provides an analysis of factors affecting the level of product innovation in a small enterprise setting. The perspective chosen considers the interaction of management and environmental factors and its impact on product innovation and explores how these factors interrelate to influence small business success (growth). A causal multi-site model is developed which will assist in identifying product innovation determinants for high-growth and low-growth firms. Moreover, direct and secondary explanations of product innovations will be isolated. Twelve case studies will be examined. The conclusions are that, for high-growth firms, determinants of product innovation that influenced small-business success (growth) were technology, competitive edge, research and development, product life-cycle, market change, product/market mix and customer base. For low-growth firms, customer base was a major determinant of product innovation which influenced small-business success (growth).     

Credit constraints and the persistence of unemployment

In this paper, we argue that credit market imperfections impact not only the level of unemployment, but also its persistence. For this purpose, we first develop a theoretical model based on the equilibrium matching framework of Mortensen and Pissarides (1999) and Pissarides (2000) where we introduce credit constraints. We show these credit constraints not only increase steady-state unemployment, but also slow down the transitional dynamics. We then provide an empirical illustration based on a country panel dataset of 20 OECD countries. Our results suggest that credit market imperfections significantly increase the persistence of unemployment.     

A comparative study of bureaucratic corruption in Latin America and the U.S.A.

The starting point of this paper is a conceptual model of bureaucratic corruption, based on the assumption that bureaucrats (a) maximize personal utilities, and (b) control a monopoly in the production of certain goods and services. This conceptual model leads to a system of three equations representing demand, supply and market clearance of the goods and services supplied by the bureaucracy. Using the market clearance equation, an equation for the level of corruption in a bureaucracy is obtained. The conceptual model helps to specify the signs of the partial derivatives of the level of corruption with respect to the explanatory variables. Two sets of data are used to test the model. The first refers to levels of corruption in the bureaucracies of 17 Latin American countries, while the second deals with levels of corruption of Federal officials working in individual states in the U.S.A., state officials, and local officials. The conclusions obtained thus far using the statistical analysis confirm the expectations derived with the conceptual model.     

Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

This study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to quantify the potentially asymmetric transmission of positive and negative changes in each of the possible determinants of industry-level corporate bond credit spreads in China. The determinants we consider include the corresponding industry stock price, China’s stock market volatility, the level and slope of the yield curve (i.e., the interest rate), the industrial production growth rate, and the inflation rate. The empirical results suggest substantial asymmetric effects of these determinants on credit spreads, with the positive changes in the determinants showing larger impacts than the negative changes for most industries we consider. Moreover, the corresponding industry stock prices, the interest rate, and the industrial production growth rate negatively drive the industry credit spreads for many industries. In turn, China’s stock market volatility and the inflation rate positively affect the credit spreads at each industry level. These findings may be helpful to investors, bond issuers and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit risks and corporate bond rates at the industry level.     

Heterogeneous expectations,boom-bust housing cycles,and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach

We combine a standard stock-flow housing market model, incorporating explicit relationships between house prices, the housing stock, and the rent level, with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors, reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules. The model results in a two-dimensional discrete-time nonlinear dynamical system. Based on realistic parameters, the model is able to generate endogenous boom-bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding. We thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces, in particular supply conditions, interact with expectations-driven housing market fluctuations.     

When haste makes sense: Cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper presents an analytical approach to the tactical question: ‘What level of enforcement over time allows one to eliminate a street market for illicit drugs while expanding the least possible total effort?’ The analysis is done in the context of Caulkins' model [6] which predicts the rate of change of dealers as a function of enforcement level and several market parameters. Our analysis suggests that the simple strategy of using the maximum available enforcement intensity until the market has been eliminated minimizes the total enforcement effort required.     

我国证券市场的有效性分析

论述了证券市场的有效性,分析了证券市场的运行特点和弱有效市场、次强有效市场和强有效市场对证券市场运行的影响。结合当前我国证券市场有效性程度不高的特点,提出应从实证角度完善CAPM模型,以利我国证券市场健康发展。     

The Price Evolution in China's Automobile Market

The automobile market in China has seen unprecedented expansion during the past decade with rapid model turnover and dramatic price decline. This paper aims to document the evolution of price and investigate the sources of price decline, paying attention to both market structure and cost factors. We estimate a market equilibrium model with differentiated multiproduct oligopoly using market‐level sales data in China together with information from household surveys. Our counterfactual simulations show that (quality‐adjusted) vehicle prices have dropped by 33% from 2004 to 2009. The decrease in markup from intensified competition accounts for about one third of this change and the rest comes from cost reductions through learning by doing and other channels. In addition, our simulations show that the price decline would have been larger had it not been for the growth of household income during this period.     

Tradability,closeness to market prices,and expected profit: their measurement for a binomial model of options pricing in a heterogeneous market

A reliable method of options pricing in real time would help various players, including hedgers and speculators, to make informed decisions. In this study, we develop an extensive simulation with multiple business environments, which includes the use of real data from the S&P 500 Index between the years 2010–2017 for the 30 days prior to expiration of the options. Forecasted tradability is computed based on the SH model: a theoretical model of real-time options pricing that takes into account players’ heterogeneity with regard to their willingness to accept offers proposed by the opposing player. The quality of the model is examined for the scenario in which the model players are speculators who act against the real market prices. We show that the equilibrium prices predicted by the SH model are close to the market prices (a deviation of up to approx. 3%) in an In-The-Money environment. Additionally, the tougher the players (i.e., the greater their level of unwillingness to accept a bid from the opposing player), the higher the average tradability. We also find that the level of willingness of the players has a greater effect on tradability than does option moneyness or the market trend.

     

EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the universally accepted risk metric adopted internationally under the Basel Accords for banking industry internal control, capital adequacy and regulatory reporting. The recent extreme financial market events such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) commencing in 2007 and the following developments in European markets mean that there is a great deal of attention paid to risk measurement and risk hedging. In particular, to risk indices and attached derivatives as hedges for equity market risk. The techniques used to model tail risk such as VaR have attracted criticism for their inability to model extreme market conditions. In this paper we discuss tail specific distribution based Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and evaluate different methods that may be used to calculate VaR ranging from well known econometrics models of GARCH and its variants to EVT based models which focus specifically on the tails of the distribution. We apply Univariate Extreme Value Theory to model extreme market risk for the FTSE100 UK Index and S&P-500 US markets indices plus their volatility indices. We show with empirical evidence that EVT can be successfully applied to financial market return series for predicting static VaR, CVaR or Expected Shortfall (ES) and also daily VaR and ES using a GARCH(1,1) and EVT based dynamic approach to these various indices. The behaviour of these indices in their tails have implications for hedging strategies in extreme market conditions.     

UNEMPLOYMENT,HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION,AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY

This paper presents a structural estimation of a life cycle model with unemployment risk. The model allows for human capital depreciation during unemployment. It is estimated using German and US household‐level data. The data suggest that the adverse impact of unemployment on individual productivity is important in both countries, but quantitatively more relevant in Germany. Moreover, simulations show that the combination of skill depreciation with the generous unemployment insurance system that was in place in Germany until recently is a key factor in explaining the differences in labour market performance between these countries. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The product‐market performance benefits of environmental policy: Why customer awareness and firm innovativeness matter

Researchers have widely studied the nexus between corporate environmental (“green”) policy and its green performance and firm financial performance, but with mixed findings. A potential explanation for these mixed findings is the focus of extant studies on the direct and immediate impact of environmental performance on financial performance to the exclusion of firm‐specific boundary conditions. Furthermore, all prior research study the effect of environmental performance on either stock market‐based performance measures (i.e., stock return) or accounting‐based performance measures (i.e., return on assets). A missing third dimension of firm performance, product–market‐based performance (i.e., market share), has so far remained unexplored despite representing a crucial objective when innovating. Using Newsweek's annual green ranking as a novel measure of environmental performance for a panel of U.S. firms from 2010 to 2015, this paper attempts to fill these voids in the literature. The results show a positive relationship between firms' environmental performance and market share as a measure of product–market‐based performance. The findings further demonstrate that this relationship is positively moderated by the level of customer awareness and innovativeness of the firm: The higher the level of awareness of a firm's environmental credentials and innovativeness, the stronger the effects of environmental performance on market share. Our results are robust against endogeneity concerns and alternative measures of firm financial and environmental performance.     

Toward a Model of Organizational Co-Evolution in Transition Economies

abstract    The paper presents a model of organization–environment co-evolution, which portrays the joint impact of organizational and environmental characteristics on organizational survival. The four organizational characteristics included in the model are: (a) control structure, (b) product strategy, (c) exchange strategy, and (d) distance to the market. The three environmental characteristics are: (a) control structures, (b) competitive structures, and (c) exchange structures. In line with the general co-evolutionary approach, the model highlights the interrelationship between micro and meso level phenomena, specifically, between firm-level adaptation and industry-level selection of organizational forms. The paper focuses on transition economies and uses the empirical evidence from these economies to illustrate the model's potential. The model, however, is sufficiently general to be applied in other organizational environments.     

The Traditional Industrial Sector in Developing Countries: An Update on Its Role and Functioning

A bstract . In the theory of urban labor markets in less developed countries , levels of traditional industrial sector incomes, are a key determinant of modern sector skilled wages (directly through the external labor market) and unskilled wages (indirectly through operations of internal labor markets ). Data on traditional sector incomes for 40 urban areas are assembled from a variety of sources; the quality of these data and needs for future data collection are critically appraised. The data are then used to conduct a preliminary test of the labor market model. In general, the predictions of the model are supported by these tests     

Structural estimation of stock market participation costs

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle.