On the Usefulness of Operating Income,Net Income and Comprehensive Income in Explaining Security Returns

This study evaluates the usefulness of three earnings definitions (operating income, net income and comprehensive income) in explaining residual security returns. Usefulness is measured in terms of relative information content and incremental information content. In the former, the goodness-of-fit of the return-earnings relationship is compared under each earnings definition. In the latter, the increase in goodness-of-fit due to additional earnings components is measured. Based on a sample that averages 922 firms a year for 18 years, the analysis shows that operating income weakly dominates net income, and that both operating income and net income dominate comprehensive income, in information content. The results also show that those items that account for the difference between net income and operating income have incremental information content, but not those between net income and comprehensive income. The practical and academic contributions of these findings are discussed.     

The impact of replacement cost disclosure on security prices: New Evidence

A number of studies have tested for information content in the ASR 190 disclosure by comparing the conditional and unconditional distribution of abnormal security returns around the time of disclosure. Since no differences were observed, it was concluded that ASR 190 had no information content. The study reported below performs a similar test by estimating the regression function of the conditional distribution of abnormal returns. This test procedure controls for the information content in contemporaneous historical cost disclosure and uses a conditioning variable not considered in earlier tests. It finds statistically significant stock price effects. However, because most of the effects appear to precede the official announcement date by several months, it is unclear whether stock prices were responding to the leakage of the information content of ASR 190 prior to disclosure, to private production of information contained in ASR 190 or to a variable omitted from the study which happens to be correlated with replacement costs.     

The information content of SEC accounting series release no. 190

The study examines the security price behavior of firms at the time of three events: the proposal of the SEC's accounting series release (ASR 190) to require replacement cost disclosures, the adoption of ASR 190, and the initial filing of the data with the SEC. The primary analysis focuses upon differential security return behavior among reporting firms. Several extensions, including a comparison with nonreporting firms, are also conducted. The basic findings indicates no security price effects and is consistent with the hypothesis that no information was provided to the market during the three time intervals studied. Alternatively, the inability to find an effect may be due to a misspecification in the research design. However, the basic finding is robust under several additional analyses and specifications.     

Earnings, cashflows and returns: Functional relations and the impact of firm size

The relation between stock returns, earnings and cashflows is of importance because it directly addresses the issue of whether accounting data provide value relevant information. The empirical evidence to date, however, has documented low explanatory power for earnings and inconclusive incremental information content for cashflows. This research re-evaluates the incremental information content debate using Australian data. Our research is motivated by: recent innovations in research design, including the specification of nonlinear functional relations between accounting variables and prices, and the fact that differences in firm size characteristics may influence the relative information content of the accounting variables. We observe that: (i) a nonlinear functional relation provides greater explanatory power for both earnings and cashflows;(ii) the results are consistent with more transitory earnings components for smaller firms; and (iii) contrary to received theory, cashflows add greater incremental explanatory power for large firms.     

The role of accruals and cash flows in explaining security returns: Evidence from New Zealand

This paper empirically examines the relative and incremental information content of earnings and cash flows and the role of firm-specific contextual factors in moderating information content in New Zealand. Accounting earnings are considered to be the premier information source for decision making and a substantial volume of literature, primarily in the United States, shows that earnings provide superior information to that of cash flows. However, significant reporting differences in New Zealand warrant and investigation of the role of earnings and cash flows to explain security returns. Results show that (a) earnings have higher explanatory power than cash flows, although the difference is not statistically significant, and (b) both earnings and cash flows have incremental information content for stock returns. Further analysis shows that the valuation role of earnings and cash flows is moderated by firm-specific factors.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

The Relation between Returns and Earnings: Evidence for the UK

This paper presents an empirical study of the explanatory power of annual earnings figures for annual stock returns using UK data. The analysis is performed on a sample of companies, with varying year-ends, over the period 1969–1990. The research exploits Ohlson's recent theoretical contributions to the study of the valuation relevance of accounting information, and it complements a study by Easton and Harris (1991) on US data. Similar to the results of Easton and Harris, the results for the UK provide consistent evidence that both earnings levels and earnings differences have significant explanatory power for security returns. However, unlike Easton and Harris, the evidence from individual year regressions suggests that changes in earnings rather than the level of earnings may be more important in explaining security returns in the UK.     

Usefulness of comprehensive income reporting in Canada

In January 2005 the Canadian Accounting Standards Board (AcSB) issued three new accounting standards that require Canadian firms to mark-to-market certain financial assets and liabilities and recognize the holding gains and losses related to these items as other comprehensive income or as part of net income. The Board’s objectives for issuing the new standards are (i) to harmonize Canadian GAAP with US and International GAAP, (ii) to enhance the transparency and usefulness of financial statements, and (iii) to keep pace with changes in accounting standards in other countries that are moving towards fair value accounting. This paper investigates empirically whether requiring Canadian companies to report comprehensive income and its components provides the securities market with incremental value-relevant information over the traditional historical-cost earnings approach.Previous empirical studies provide mixed evidence on the value relevance of other comprehensive income and its components. This mixed evidence may be attributed partially to the use of as if methodology to construct an ex-ante measure of other comprehensive income prior to the implementation of SFAS 130, which introduces measurement error. In contrast, this study uses actual data on other comprehensive income for a sample of Canadian firms cross-listed in the US in the period 1998–2003. We find evidence that available-for-sale and cash flow hedges components are significantly associated with price and market returns. We also find that aggregate comprehensive income is more strongly associated (in terms of explanatory power) with both stock price and returns compared to net income. However, we find that net income is a better predictor of future net income relative to comprehensive income. Our findings suggest that mandating all Canadian firms to adopt the new accounting standards is expected to enhance the usefulness of financial statements. Our findings, therefore, should be of interest to Canadian accounting policy makers as they provide ex-ante evidence on the potential usefulness of mandating firms to report comprehensive income and the components of other comprehensive income in their financial statements.     

The adjustment of security returns to the disclosure of replacement cost accounting information

In March 1976, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) promulgated Accounting Series Release No. 190 (ASR 190) requiring the disclosure of certain replacement cost (RC) accounting data by its registrants. The purpose of this study is to assess whether the RC disclosure rule had any effect on common stock returns for firms affected by the new rule. Distinguishing the effect of compliance costs from the effect of information in the RC data, we found no sign of a cost effect and no strong evidence of an information effect. This result appears to imply (a) that the burden of the ASR 190 compliance costs was not large enough to induce downward adjustments of the firms' security returns; and (b) that the RC data did not provide new information useful to investors as asserted by the SEC.     

Beyond accounting and back: An empirical examination of the relative relevance of earnings and “other” information

Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of book value, earnings, and analysts' earnings forecasts which capture “other” information not yet reflected in the financial statements. Within this framework, stock returns reflect information from earnings and forecasts, each of which is different in terms of reliability and timeliness. For the period 1984–2012, this paper examines time trends and the influence of aggregate market conditions on the relative relevance of earnings and forecasts. In this context, relative relevance is defined as the incremental explanatory power of earnings or forecasts, relative to their combined explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of stock returns. This inquiry is motivated by anecdotal evidence and recent research, which suggests that aggregate market conditions influence the usefulness of accounting information for investors. The findings show that while the relative relevance of earnings has remained stable, the relative relevance of forecasts has increased over time. I also find that the relative relevance of earnings is higher in bad years, i.e. years with low market returns or elevated market uncertainty. Overall, the results reported in this study suggest that despite the increase in the relevance of timely “other” information, investors tend to rely more on reliable accounting information during bad years.     

The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns: New Evidence from an Emerging Market

Over 300 factors have been found to explain the cross-section of expected stock returns. Empirical studies also show that findings from multifactor asset-pricing models have not been consistent in an emerging market. Using DuPont analysis and a residual income valuation model for 284 nonfinancial companies on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange during the period 2008–2014, findings suggest that the return on equity and its change are informative for stock returns in Vietnam. In addition, the level of capital turnover, financial cost ratio (FCR), and changes in capital and in the FCR contain incremental explanatory power for stock returns.     

Value Relevance of Inflation-adjusted Equity and Income

This paper investigates the role incremental information content of inflation-adjusted data plays in explaining the market value of equity and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We show the effect of inflation accounting application on basic financial ratios, and we test the value relevance of inflation-adjusted and historical cost-based book value and earnings. The findings show that inflation adjustment affects financial ratios significantly, which may create different risk assessments for the selected firms. Furthermore, the results indicate that both inflation-adjusted and historical cost-based earnings and book values are significantly value relevant. The two sets of data are not to be used as substitutes, but, rather, they are complementary. For this reason, inflation-adjusted data should be required as supplementary data to the historical cost information rather than in place of historical cost data.     

Using residual income to refine the relationship between earnings growth and stock returns

We use residual income (RI) to decompose earnings growth into growth in RI, growth in invested capital and other components and use this decomposition to explain stock returns. Our approach provides a significant increase in explanatory power vis-à-vis a regression of returns on levels and changes in earnings. While the market values growth in RI more than growth in invested capital, it still undervalues growth in RI and overvalues growth in invested capital. Earnings growth from growth in RI is more persistent, while earnings growth from growth in invested capital is more likely to reverse. Future returns are positively associated with growth in RI and negatively associated with growth in invested capital. A trading rule based on these findings generates significant hedge returns that persist after controlling for known risk factors. Hence, RI, a measure long recommended by accountants, allows investors to differentiate and evaluate different sources of earnings growth.     

VALUE RELEVANCE OF OPERATING INCOME VERSUS NON-OPERATING INCOME IN THE TAIWAN STOCK EXCHANGE

Taiwanese firms generally have a higher proportion of non-operating income than U.S. and U.K. firms. Taiwan also has many investors who focus only on short-term returns and ignore risks. It therefore is possible that non-operating income is at least as value relevant as operating income in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Results show that valuation models based on earnings components have a higher explanatory power than those based solely on earnings. The contribution of non-operating income is not significantly different from that of operating income.     

The accounting and market consequences of accelerated share repurchases

We evaluate the representational faithfulness of the accounting treatment of a recent and well-established type of structured transaction—accelerated share repurchases (ASRs). ASRs are popular because accretive earnings per share benefits are recognized immediately, while any gains or losses on the forward contract used to execute an ASR bypass income, and are reported directly in equity. We document lower value relevance for the liabilities of ASR companies compared with a size- and industry-matched sample. ERC tests also indicate a market discount for the earnings of ASR companies compared with the control sample. Finally, we document significant abnormal returns to a trading strategy based on unrealized gains or losses on ASR transactions. Our results indicate that the current accounting for ASRs does not result in representative reporting of these transactions. As a result, financial statement users might benefit from recognition of ASR elements in financial statements.     

The information content of funds from operations (FFO) for real estate investment trusts (REITs)

This paper examines the information content of alternative summary performance measures, using stock returns as the benchmark, for 138 REITs during 1994–1996. This paper tests for both incremental and relative information content of FFO (a voluntarily disclosed, accounting-based performance measure that is the industry standard for REITs) compared to GAAP net income (EPS), cash from operations, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Results indicate that both FFO and EPS consistently provide incremental information content with only weak evidence that EPS has greater relative information content and no evidence for the other summary performance measures.     

Conservatism and Cross-Sectional Variation in the Post–Earnings Announcement Drift

Accounting conservatism allows me to identify a previously undocumented source of predictable cross‐sectional variation in Standardized Unexpected Earnings' autocorrelations viz. the sign of the most recent earnings realization and present evidence that the market ignores this variation (“loss effect”). It is possible to earn returns higher than from the Bernard and Thomas (1990) strategy by incorporating this feature. Additionally, the paper shows that the “loss effect” is different from the “cross quarter” effect shown by Rangan and Sloan (1998) and it is possible to combine the two effects to earn returns higher than either strategy alone. Thus, the paper corroborates the Bernard and Thomas finding that stock prices fail to reflect the extent to which quarterly earnings series differ from a seasonal random walk and extends it by showing that the market systematically underestimates time‐series properties resulting from accounting conservatism.     

Preserving amortized costs within a fair-value-accounting framework: reclassification of gains and losses on available-for-sale securities upon realization

SFAS No. 115 requires firms to recognize available-for-sale (AFS) securities at fair value with accumulated unrealized gains and losses (AUGL) recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income. Firms reclassify AUGL to net income when they realize gains and losses. We refer to the amount reclassified each period by “RECLASS.” As of 1998, SFAS No. 130 requires firms to present RECLASS prominently in their financial statements. We investigate the incremental explanatory power of RECLASS for banks’ market values and market-adjusted returns. In the market value analysis, we control for AUGL, other components of book value of equity, net income before extraordinary items and RECLASS (NIBEX^other), and other components of comprehensive income. In the returns analysis, we control for ΔAUGL, ΔNIBEX^other, and extraordinary items. We find high positive coefficients on RECLASS in both analyses, consistent with investors pricing RECLASS as a relatively permanent component of net income. Exploring possible explanations for these pricing implications, we find no evidence that they are attributable to RECLASS remedying unreliable fair value measurement of AUGL. We provide three distinct analyses indicating that RECLASS’s pricing implications are explained in significant part by it helping investors predict banks’ future performance. Our results illustrate that an important type of amortized cost accounting information, realized gains and losses, remains highly useful to investors despite the overall fair-value-accounting framework for AFS securities.     

Accounting Conservatism: A Literature Review

Accounting conservatism is one of the most important properties of financial reporting. The goal of this article is to gain a better understanding of accounting conservatism. We explicate the evolution of conservatism over its long history. Accounting conservatism is indispensable because the main parties of a firm demand conservatism to mitigate agency costs. Various methods are used to measure accounting conservatism, which include balance sheet measures, income statement measures and earnings/stock return relation measures. Empirical research into accounting conservatism has flourished over the last two decades and we focus on the cross‐sectional and time‐series variations in conservatism. We conclude that accounting conservatism is important and cannot be excluded from accounting standards.