Earnings, Cash Flows and Security Returns Over Long Return Intervals: Analysis and UK Evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide a fuller understanding of the process linking security returns and accounting data by focusing on the effect of long return intervals on the association between security returns and earnings and cash flow variables. First, we develop a theoretical basis for empirical analysis of the relationship between security returns and cash flow data over long return intervals. Second, we carry out empirical analysis of both the information content of cash flow variables and the incremental information content of accounting earnings and cash flows using UK data over the period 1985–92 for annual, two year and four year return intervals. Our results provide strong evidence of the valuation relevance of cash flow information for the dataset examined.     

Asset pricing with liquidity risk

This paper solves explicitly a simple equilibrium model with liquidity risk. In our liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model, a security's required return depends on its expected liquidity as well as on the covariances of its own return and liquidity with the market return and liquidity. In addition, a persistent negative shock to a security's liquidity results in low contemporaneous returns and high predicted future returns. The model provides a unified framework for understanding the various channels through which liquidity risk may affect asset prices. Our empirical results shed light on the total and relative economic significance of these channels and provide evidence of flight to liquidity.     

Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach

We propose the standard neoclassical model of investment under uncertainty with short‐run adjustment frictions as a benchmark for earnings‐return patterns absent accounting influences. We show that our proposed benchmark generates a wide range of earnings‐return patterns documented in accounting research. Notably, our model generates a concave earnings‐return relation, similar to that of Basu [1997], and predicts that the earnings‐return concavity increases with the volatility of firms’ underlying shock processes and decreases with the level of firms’ investments. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Overall, our evidence suggests that our proposed benchmark is useful for understanding the joint dynamics of variables of interest to accounting research (e.g., earnings, returns, investment, market‐to‐book) absent accounting influences, a necessary precondition for inferring the effects of accounting from these dynamics.     

Dealer Bid-Ask Quotes and Transaction Prices: An Empirical Study of Some AMEX Options

This paper, utilizing dealer's “trading book” information, presents some empirical evidence supporting the validity of a dealer pricing model. It shows that much of the transaction prices variation may be explained by the specialist's optimal determination of his bid and ask quotes. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the dealer's bid-ask spread is an important explanatory variable in the observed transaction return. Finally, it indicates that the dealer's inventory level may affect his quotes and thus the transaction prices and order arrivals. The paper provides insights into the relationship between transaction prices and equilibrium prices, which will permit more extensive use of transaction data in empirical investigations. It also provides a better understanding of optimal dealer pricing strategies, suggesting that the proposed empirical model may be used to evaluate a dealer's trading performance.     

Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off

This paper studies the cross-sectional risk–return trade-off in the stock market. A fundamental principle in finance is the positive relation between risk and expected return. However, recent empirical evidence suggests the opposite. Using several intuitive risk measures, we show that the negative risk–return relation is much more pronounced among firms in which investors face prior losses, but the risk–return relation is positive among firms in which investors face prior gains. We consider a number of possible explanations for this new empirical finding and conclude that reference-dependent preference is the most promising explanation.     

大股东控制、政府控制层级与公司价值创造

本文着眼于公司价值的边际增量——投资绩效,从相对更短的价值链,研究了大股东控制、政府控制层级在我国上市公司价值创造过程中的作用与效率,以深入探究所有权结构与公司价值关系的迷雾。基于我国上市公司的经验证据发现:不同的所有权结构在公司价值创造中的作用与效率和终极所有权性质密不可分,大股东追求控制权私有收益对市县级政府和非政府所属上市公司的投资收益产生了消极影响。具体而言:市县级政府控制和非政府控制上市公司的投资绩效受到堑壕效应的消极影响,但利益趋同效应仅在非政府控制上市公司中有所显现;股权制衡对市县级政府和非政府控制的上市公司投资绩效有一定的积极作用。     

Intra- and inter-regional return and volatility spillovers across emerging and developed markets: Evidence from stock indices and stock index futures

We provide empirical evidence on the patterns of intra- and inter-regional transmission of information across 10 developed and 11 emerging markets in Asia, the Americas, Europe and Africa using both stock indices and stock index futures. The main transmission channels are examined in the period from 2005 to 2014 through the analysis of return and volatility spillovers around the most recent crises based on the generalized vector autoregressive framework. Our findings demonstrate that markets are more susceptible to domestic and region-specific volatility shocks than to inter-regional contagion. A novel result reported in our study is a difference in patterns of international signals transmission between models employing indices and futures data. We conclude that futures data provide more efficient channels of information transmission because the magnitude of return and volatility spillovers across futures is larger than across indices. Our findings are relevant to practitioners, such as stock market investors, as well as policy makers and can help enhance their understanding of financial markets interconnectedness.     

On the validity of accounting rates of return in cross-sectional analysis: Theory, evidence, and implications

This paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relationship between firm accounting rate of return (ARR) and firm internal rate of return (IRR). The evidence presented shows that some of the analytically derived properties of the ARR-IRR relationship hold in a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms. This evidence can be interpreted as documenting the existence of a potentially important degree of measurement error in the ARR for a sample of actual firms and increases the credibility of those who have questioned the use of accounting rates of return as the dependent variable in cross-sectional studies of firm profitability.     

The Determinants of Conditional Autocorrelation in Stock Returns

We investigate whether return volatility, trading volume, return asymmetry, business cycles, and day‐of‐the‐week are potential determinants of conditional autocorrelation in stock returns. Our primary focus is on the role of feedback trading and the interplay of return volatility. We present empirical evidence using conditional autocorrelation estimates generated from multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M‐GARCH) models for individual U.S. stock and index data. In addition to return volatility, we find that trading volume and market returns are important in explaining the time‐varying patterns of return autocorrelation.     

Do fundamental indexes produce higher risk-adjusted returns than market cap indexes? Evidence for European stock markets

A fundamental index weighs stocks proportionally to fundamentals such as book value, dividends, or sales. We investigate risk/return characteristics of fundamentally-weighted and market-cap-weighted indexes and employ various risk-adjustment approaches to ensure that return differences are not driven by risk. Based on stocks in the DJ Stoxx 600 index from July 1993 to April 2007, we show that fundamentally-weighted indexes achieve higher risk-adjusted returns than market-cap-weighted indexes. Our results provide empirical evidence for former theoretical findings that cap weighting may result in suboptimal risk/return characteristics.     

Infrequent Rebalancing,Return Autocorrelation,and Seasonality

A model of infrequent rebalancing can explain specific predictability patterns in the time series and cross‐section of stock returns. First, infrequent rebalancing produces return autocorrelations that are consistent with empirical evidence from intraday returns and new evidence from daily returns. Autocorrelations can switch sign and become positive at the rebalancing horizon. Second, the cross‐sectional variance in expected returns is larger when more traders rebalance. This effect generates seasonality in the cross‐section of stock returns, which can help explain available empirical evidence.     

石油价格与股票市场的溢出效应——基于中美数据的比较分析

本文以中美股票市场和国际原油市场的数据为样本,用VAR模型和二元GARCH模型研究了中美股市价格和国际石油价格的收益率及波动的溢出效应。研究结果表明,中国股市价格和国际石油价格之间,既不存在任何方向的收益率溢出效应,也不存在任何方向的波动溢出效应;而国际石油价格的变化率对于美国股市收益率确有负向先导作用,并且两者之间具有双向的波动溢出。     

Selecting a portfolio with skewness: Recent evidence from US,European, and Latin American equity markets

Polynomial goal programming, in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated, is utilized to determine the optimal portfolio from Latin American, US and European capital markets. The empirical findings suggest that the incorporation of skewness into an investor’s portfolio decision causes a major change in the resultant optimal portfolio. The empirical evidence indicates that investors do trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness.     

Accounting Returns Revisited: Evidence of their Usefulness in Estimating Economic Returns

Accounting information is used for measuring firm performance in various financial applications—a practice supported by empirical studies demonstrating the value relevance of accounting numbers, but disputed by theoretical papers arguing that a firm's accounting rate of return (ARR) serves poorly as a proxy for its internal rate of return (IRR). We derive a new model of the ARR–IRR relation, and describe how the conservatism of GAAP constrains a firm's IRR to fall in a range bounded by its historical growth rate and ARR. Using cross-sectional data, we demonstrate that economic returns can be estimated from accounting numbers for many firms. We link empirical results to underlying economic theory, and thus contribute to understanding why accounting information is value relevant.     

THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATING EXPOSURE OF AUSTRALIAN STOCKS

This paper provides empirical evidence on the stock return sensitivity of a sample of Australian companies, to changes in the trade weighted index value of the Australian dollar during the post float period January, 1984 - December, 1989. Exposure is estimated using time series regression methods. While the evidence of exposure is generally weak, there is evidence that resource stocks and industrial stocks respond differentially to fluctuations in the Australian dollar.     

The Role of U.S. Market on International Risk‐Return Tradeoff Relations

We study the intertemporal risk‐return tradeoff relations based on returns from 18 international markets. We find striking new empirical evidence that the inclusion of U.S. market returns significantly changes the estimated risk‐return tradeoff relations in international markets from mostly negative to predominantly positive. Our results are consistent with the lead‐lag effect between U.S. and international markets in the sense of Rapach, Strauss and Zhou.     

An Empirical Examination of the Return Volatility-Volume Relation in Related Markets: The Case of Stock and Options

This paper empirically examines the impact of option trading on the relation between daily stock return volatility and stock trading volume. For a sample of firms for which options were newly listed on the CBOE from 1982 to 1985, the empirical evidence indicates that there is a structural shift in the relation after option trading is introduced. Also, the findings show that daily stock return volatility is significantly and positively correlated with contemporaneous option volume, but not one-day lagged option volume. These results suggest that contemporaneous option volume may be an important variable in modelling daily stock return volatility and heteroskedasticity.     

Ex Ante Stock Market Return Volatility Implied by the OEX Option Premium

Previous empirical evidence suggests that stock return volatility expectations change over time, but the existing models of time-varying variance lack a theoretical structure that is rigorously linked to the efficient markets dividend discount model. This paper develops and tests such a model. The conditional forecast variance of the return on the stock market portfolio is expressed as a linear combination of the adjusted conditional forecast variance of the interest rate and the dividend growth rate. An empirical test using the implied variance of the S&P 100 index option provides evidence that supports the model's predictions.     

Why mutual funds “underperform”

I propose a parsimonious model that reproduces the negative risk-adjusted performance of actively managed equity mutual funds. In the model, a fund manager can generate state-dependent active returns at a disutility. Negative expected performance and mutual fund investing simultaneously arise in equilibrium because the active return the fund manager generates covaries positively with a component of the pricing kernel that the performance measure omits, consistent with recent empirical evidence. Using data on U.S. funds, I also document new empirical evidence consistent with the model's cross-sectional implications.     

Statistical tests of distributional scaling properties for financial return series

Existing empirical evidence of distributional scaling in financial returns has helped motivate the use of multifractal processes for modelling return processes. However, this evidence has relied on informal tests that may be unable to reliably distinguish multifractal processes from other related classes. The current paper develops a formal statistical testing procedure for determining which class of fractal process is most consistent with the distributional scaling properties in a given sample of data. Our testing methodology consists of a set of test statistics, together with a model-based bootstrap resampling scheme to obtain sample p-values. We demonstrate in Monte Carlo exercises that the proposed testing methodology performs well in a wide range of testing environments relevant for financial applications. Finally, the methodology is applied to study the scaling properties of a data-set of intraday equity index and exchange rate returns. The empirical results suggest that the scaling properties of these return series may be inconsistent with purely multifractal processes.