Determinants of capacity utilization by firms in less developed countries

The factors which influenced the capacity utilization decision of two hundred firms in the light manufacturing sector in Thailand during the period 1962–1974 were analyzed. The profit-maximizing capacity utilization rate for each firm was calculated using the projected balance sheets and income statements the firms prepared at the time of their initial investment. This ‘optimal’ rate was roughly twice the rates chosen by the firms. The extent of nonoptimal capacity underutilization of a firm was a function of the nationality of the firm's owner, entry date, number of firms in the industry, projected profits, and the manager's perceived risk of multishift operations.     

Protection by international transport charges: Analysis by stage of fabrication

This study employs the effective protection model to evaluate the incidence of ad valorem transport charges (freight factors) on U.S. imports at various stages in the production process, with special emphasis on their impact upon the development of manufacturing activities in LDC's. Freight factors, unlike tariffs, are not found to display a widespread tendency to escalate by fabrication stage, and do not appear to bear more heavily on products of major export interest to LDC's than on U.S. imports from industrial nations. Results suggest forces other than transport charges are primarily responsible for inhibiting the growth of manufacturing export industries in LDC's.     

Venture capital: Structure and incentives

Venture capital is a major source of financing for firms in their early stages of development. Such businesses, especially in the high technology industries, are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and asymmetry of information. In this paper we analyze the relationship between a venture capital organization (“capitalist”) and the initial owner of an entrepreneurial entity in which it invests (“entrepreneur”). We focus on the agency problems and derive a compensation system. In our model the capitalist provides a combination of equity and debt financing while the owner provides equity financing which serves as a signal affecting the beliefs (“optimism”) of the capitalist. The interesting result is that since the capitalist is assumed to be more risk averse than the entrepreneur, he is made to be more optimistic than the entrepreneur at the optimum.     

Identification of technological threats and opportunities by firms

A number of models and approaches are being developed in attempts to anticipate the nature and direction of technological change and its impact on the firm. Under what conditions might we expect firms to use one or more of these models in an organized way and under what conditions might we expect the resulting information to be used in the firm's planning process? The basic hypothesis of this paper is that effective use by firms of models for anticipating technological change can be explained based upon: the nature and extent of uncertainty in the firm's environment,the firm's strategy for growth, and the degree of definition of communication networks (both formal and informal) within the firm and between the firm and its environment. Technology planners and managers of 29 firms in a variety of industries have been interviewed concerning the ways in which technological threats and opportunities are identified and analyzed and the ways in which this information is integrated into the firm's normal planning cycle. A follow-up questionnaire is being designed to be sent to a larger number of respondents.     

The macroeconomics of unbalanced growth and the expanding public sector: Some simple tests of a model of government growth

A now classic model of public sector growth is Baumol's (1967) ‘Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth’. That model implies that one cause of public sector expenditure growth is a low or zero rate of productivity growth in the public sector relative to the private sector. Previous studies have tested, and partially confirmed, the Baumol hypothesis by computing productivity indices for various public sector activities. In this paper I attempt to test that model in a more direct manner. The unbalanced growth model is used to predict growth rates of per capita government expenditures, government's share of GNP and the pattern of government expenditure growth. These predictions are compared with observed growth rates of aggregate government expenditures. The model predicts the growth rate aggregate government expenditures, the growth rate of government's share of GNP, and the pattern of government expenditure growth reasonably well, and the data tend to support the Baumol model.     

The Verdoorn law revisited: A note

In his Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della produttività del lavoro Verdoorn (1949) presented empirical evidence on the constancy of the ratio of productivity growth to output growth. As a theoretical underpinning he used a neoclassical growth model. The main purpose of this paper is to emphasize that in this model the ratio is constant only in the steady state. If Verdoorn's underpinning of his law is to be correct, the steady-state assumption should be empirically tested. Some available evidence for Verdoorn's sample appears to throw doubt upon this assumption.     

Quesnay's model of economic development

The article examines François Quesnay's ideas on economic growth and technical progress in agriculture. It formalizes these ideas as a dynamic model which describes the relationship between a shift to high yielding capital-intensive methods of production and growth and income distribution, taking into account Quesnay's understanding of the institutional aspects of land tenure in his days.     

The role of international transfer of technology in Japan's economic growth

The study has two objectives. The first is to review the current state of knowledge about the quantitative role of technological progress in Japan's economic growth. While a few studies have challenged its preeminent role as a source of growth, attributing such growth to a more highly educated labor force or to a rapid growth of capital, etc., a main finding of recent research has been to reaffirm technological change as the most important source of growth.The second objective of the study is to suggest how this rapid technological progress was achieved. A process is described in which, in Japan, a national policy on growth was established, policy tools developed, cooperation of involved groups secured, and new commodities marketed. In this process, the importation of foreign technology apparently played a key role and the study calls for detailed research on this key factor.     

Phelps' technical progress model generalized

We generalize Phelps' technical progress function and make it more realistic, by weakening assumptions and by adding education and income as influences on technical progress. The result retains the simplicity of Phelps' result, and reinforces the heterodox conclusion that higher population growth implies faster economic growth and higher consumption.     

Empirical evidence on the two-gap hypothesis: A revised analysis

This paper reconsiders the problem, analyzed by Weisskopf (1972a), of empirically classifying a set of low-income countries as having had their growth performance primarily constrained by the availability of foreign exchange or of domestic savings. Ambiguities in Weisskopf's procedure are noted, and an alternative, based on the extension of classical likelihood-ratio methods to the case of regression parameters subject to linear inequality constraints, is suggested. Reclassifying a subset of countries from Weisskopf's sample, we find stronger evidence against the importance of an independent foreign exchange constraint than indicated by Weisskopf's original results.     

An algorithm of game theory applied to the duopoly problem

In this note, an algorithm of Game Theory — Fictitious Play — is applied to a duopoly model: at each step of the algorithm, each duopolist chooses a quantity which maximizes his expected payoff, given the frequency distribution of his opponent's past choices. The algorithm is interpreted as a dynamic learning process and compared to Cournot's process. The successive pairs of quantities announced by the duopolists are proved to converge to a pair of non-cooperative equilibrium quantities. A more sophisticated version of the algorithm also has the same convergence properties.     

Sensitivity of optimal programs with respect to changes in target stocks: The case of irreversible investment

Consider an aggregative model of economic growth with changing technology and tastes, in which investment is irreversible. It is shown that initial decisions in finite-horizon optimal programs are insensitive to changes in terminal stocks, provided the horizon is long enough. This generalizes Brock's result, which was proved assuming investment to be reversible. The irreversibility constraint does not allow one to follow Brock's method of proof, using the dual (Shadow Price) properties of optimal programs. An alternative method of proof is developed, using a primal approach, and exploiting dynamic programming arguments.     

Welfare implications of growth under quotas

Using the standard trade model, it is shown that growth under quotas always improves welfare. This result is contrary to Johnson's (1967) result on the possibilities of immeserizing growth in the presence of tariffs.     

The socialist labor-managed firm and bank-financed investment: Some theoretical issues

Under a labor-managed system of the Yugoslav type of 1965–1971, the process of capital formation is subject to special difficulties, linked to the structure of property rights. Workers possess neither permanent nor transferable claims on capital assets but are, nevertheless, required by law to maintain the value of the firm's initial capital stock and of any additions to it. The law is intended to protect the nation's capital stock but is ill designed for this purpose. Its immediate effect is to reduce the collective's willingness to undertake bank-financed investment, and thus it promotes inefficient intertemporal allocation.     

A comparative dynamic analysis of a growth model under alternate policy regimes

Comparative dynamic analysis is conducted on a growth model with variable price levels and wage rates. A perturbation technique is used to compare the economy's time paths near a balanced growth path in response to alternate policy regimes. Various dynamic policy multipliers are calculated in response to some of the alternate policy regimes such as the balanced-budget fiscal regime, the constant price regime, the full-employment regime, etc., to examine their dynamic implications on the economy's behavior. Temporary deviations in the fiscal variables are found to leave no permanent effects under all but one of the regimes examined.     

Development and distribution: A critique of the cross-country U-hypothesis

This paper questions the validity of a modern paradigm, viz., the U-Hypothesis. It argues that notwithstanding contrary claims, the recent cross-country econometric studies by Ahluwalia and others have little in common from a methodological point of view with Kuznets' earlier intertemporal national studies. Ahluwalia's cross-country U-Curve is found to be based on defective statistics and questionable methodological premises. In specific, the estimation of one U-Curve from observations on both LDCs and DCs is criticised. A sample restricted to the LDC group considerably weakens support for the U-Hypothesis. Further, even marginal variations in the data set lead to the virtual disappearance of Ahluwalia's empirical relationship. The paper concludes that the cross-country U-Hypothesis is more of a hindrance than an aid to our comprehension of the relationship between economic growth and income distribution.     

The effects of progressive wealth redistribution on an economy's development performance

With the exception of studies concerning the effects of land reform programs on total agricultural output, there has been a lack of studies on how changes in the distribution of wealth may effect an economy's development performance. The objective of this study is to fill this gap and to show that under certain conditions progressive wealth redistribution can lead to an increase in an economy's rate of growth. A model is presented that incorporates portfolio behavior and financial markets into a two-sector input-output model. Model simulations are utilized to show that the major condition under which redistribution is favorable to growth is that the lower wealth group have a smaller marginal propensity to accumulate consumer durables than the upper wealth group.     

The lag from money to prices

This note accepts Terry Seaks's critique of my earlier method of estimating the lag between monetary growth and inflation by using percent changes over time spans of three or four years. However, Seaks's critique does not impair the main findings of this early work, which have been confirmed by several recent studies that avoid the pitfalls emphasized by him. These findings are that monetary growth has been a major determinant of inflation in a large number of countries since the late 1950s, and that money typically influences prices with lags of a year and a half or more.     

Use of borrowed start-up capital and micro enterprises in Mexico: existence of liquidity constraints

Using the National Survey of Micro enterprises (ENAMIN, Encuesta Nacional de Micronegocios) data I test for the presence of liquidity constraints for obtaining start-up capital in Mexico’s credit markets (formal and informal). I use the bivariate probit model with partial observability to recognize two important decisions in the credit allocation process: first, whether an owner of a micro enterprise wants to apply start-up loan and, second, whether financial institutions decide to provide or not to provide the loan. Finally, I compare the results from this model to those of a simple probit model that looks at whether a micro enterprise owner gets funding or not (i.e. the probit model implicitly assumes that no liquidity constraints exist). The findings of this study show that there is substantial heterogeneity in the socioeconomic background of borrowers, as well as in the sources for start-up capital employed by micro enterprises in Mexico. Moreover, there is clear evidence of liquidity constraints in the market for start-up capital that could hinder the creation and growth of small enterprises. Applying the findings of the study, policy makers could fundamentally increase the effectiveness in establishing an economic environment that fosters growth.

A simultaneous equations model of the educational process

This paper models the educational process as a system of six simultaneous equations. The endogenous variables include a student's achievement, motivation, expectations, efficacy, and perceived parents' and teachers' expectations. The model also includes forty-eight individual, home, peer, teacher, and school exogenous variables. Using a sample of over sixteen thousand twelfth grade students from the Equality of Educational Opportunity survey, we estimate the model by two-stage least squares and present the reduced form and structural form equations. We find that many educational outputs jointly determine one another. Also, the results suggest that school and teacher variables have important effects on educational outcomes.