The subjective expected utility hypothesis and revealed preference

Summary A choice behavior of a decision maker is said to satisfy the subjective expected utility hypothesis if there exist a utility and a subjective probability such that a decision maker chooses acts with the highest expected utility. We present a revealed preference characterization of choice behavior that is consistent with the subjective expected utility hypothesis. Our result applies to any state space and compact sets of prizes and observations (either finite or infinite).     

Firm's hedging behavior without the expected utility hypothesis

In this note we analyze the behavior of a competitive firm under price uncertainty and in the presence of a futures market. We show that the ‘separation property’, i.e., the independence of the firm's production level of the stochastic price's distribution, holds even if the firm maximizes non-expected utility functional and is not risk averse. Secondly, we show that its behavior in the futures market is the same as in the classical environment, even if one asks for a weaker notion of risk averseness. Finally, we briefly analyze the state-dependent case.     

The impossibility of compromise: some uniqueness properties of expected utility preferences

Summary. We focus on the following uniqueness property of expected utility preferences: Agreement of two preferences on one interior indifference class implies their equality. We show that, besides expected utility preferences under (objective) risk, this uniqueness property holds for subjective expected utility preferences in Anscombe-Aumann's (partially subjective) and Savage's (fully subjective) settings, while it does not hold for subjective expected utility preferences in settings without rich state spaces. Indeed, when it holds the uniqueness property is even stronger than described above, as it needs only agreement on binary acts. The extension of the uniqueness property to the subjective case is possible because beliefs in the mentioned settings are shown to satisfy an analogous property: If two decision makers agree on a likelihood indifference class, they must have identical beliefs. Received: November 15, 1999; revised version: December 29, 1999     

Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore

This study investigates the relationship between tourism development and carbon emissions in Singapore through testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which is a major tourist destination state and whose economy is linked with diverse energy resources, high-level urbanization, and rapid industrialization. Results reveal that tourism development and carbon emissions are in long-term equilibrium relationship; carbon dioxide emission converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 76.0% speed of adjustment through the channels of tourism, energy consumption, and output growth. Tourist arrivals have a negatively significant effects on carbon dioxide emission levels both in the long-term and the short-term periods. Finally, results of the Granger causality tests reveal that there is unidirectional causality that runs from tourism development to carbon emission growth in the long-term of the economy of Singapore. Therefore, the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis is confirmed in the case of Singapore.     

Grading the performance of market indicators with utility benchmarks selected from Footsie: a 2000 case study

The suitable choice of a benchmark portfolio is a critical problem prior to using the information ratio, as the performance ranking of funds depends on this choice. In this paper, a method to optimize benchmark selection taking account of the investor's preferences is proposed and applied to a case study of performance for 29 market indicators on stock exchanges throughout the world. The method that relies on recent results in optimization theory requires defining the opportunity set to select the benchmarks, this set being Footsie in the case study. The computational process and numerical results are presented through tables and figures, the accuracy of the method being also numerically tested.     

The PPP hypothesis and structural breaks: the case of Mexico

We test the purchasing power parity hypothesis for the Mexican peso/US dollar real exchange rate using monthly data for 1969–2010. Results suggest that the real exchange rate reverts to a changing mean. These mean shifts can be explained by liberalization policies implemented during the 1980s and 1990s that reduced trade barriers in the Mexican economy. Such policies modified the tradable/non-tradable goods composition of the price index producing mean shifts in the real exchange rate associated with PPP.     

The effects of expected inflation on real returns in the argentine indexed bond market

A relatively unrestricted market in goverment indexed bonds operated in the high-inflation Argentine economy from 1975 through 1982. The indexed bond yields from this period provide an interesting opportunity to examine the relation between real interest rates and expected inflation. The test results support the hypothesis that expected inflation is a significant source of variation in real interest rates, depressing the real yields on indexed bonds.     

The expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets: the case of Malaysia

This article deals with the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. It is argued that the rapid progress and financial market liberalization that is occurring in emerging financial markets could provide additional evidence for testing the expectation hypothesis. This article employs data from the Malaysian government securities market which represents one of the examples of an emerging financial market. Cointegration and error correction analyses show significant empirical validity for the expectation hypothesis. The long- and short-term interest rates are shown to be cointegrated and subject to a long-run equilibrium path. In addition to shedding some light on the experience of emerging financial market, this article explicitly identifies the process of adjustment towards the long run equilibrium. For the long-run, the results are in favour of the long-to-short version of expectation hypothesis with longer-term interest rates playing a greater role as equilibrium attractor. However, in the short run causal impact runs from short- to long-term interest rates. The empirical findings of the article generally support the proposition of expectation hypothesis.     

Multipliers of expected vs. unexpected fiscal shocks: The case of Korea

We compare the multipliers of expected and unexpected fiscal shocks. In doing so, we consider that the future path of fiscal policy is anticipated to some degree, and incorporate this characteristic into a news approach. We build a standard small open economy New-Keynesian DSGE model with a fully specified fiscal policy structure, and examine the Korean economy as an example of a small open emerging economy. We find that the present-value multiplier of the government consumption news shock in Korea is smaller than that of a corresponding surprise shock of the same magnitude, apart from the initial couple of years in the case of the output multiplier, and is consistently smaller in the cases of the consumption and investment multipliers. The present-value output multiplier of the government consumption news shock starts from about 0.72 and declines continuously to reach 0.16 after 40 years.     

The invoicing currency choice model of export enterprises assuming joint utility maximization and analysis of the factors influencing selection

Based on the assumption of joint utility maximization, an exporting currency unit pricing model was established, which consists of the local currency, producer's currency, and vehicle currency. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation and partial least squares (PLS) regression were used to analyze currency weights. Results suggest that when a producer's currency is devalued relative to a local currency, if the demand elasticity of the importer is large, the local currency will primarily be used; if the bargaining power of the importer is strong, the producer's currency will primarily be used. Among these factors, the bargaining power of the exporter has the greatest influence, followed by the demand elasticity of the importer and the exporting country's exchange rate.     

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates: The Brazilian case revisited

This article tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) using Brazilian monthly data for bond yields spanning the 2000–2017 sample period and ranging in maturity from 3 months to 5 years. Three tests are examined: the first is based on interest rates spread and the other two are based on the forward rates. On balance our results suggest rejection of the EH throughout the maturity spectrum examined, and are broadly consistent with previous findings that a linear combination of forward rates provides a statistically significant prediction of bond excess returns.     

In defense of fundamental analysis: A critique of the efficient market hypothesis

Conclusion The main shortcomings of the EMH are similar to those of the long-run competitive theories that focus exclusively on equilibrium outcomes while ignoring the entrepreneurial activity that generates those outcomes. The EMH gives the impression that there is a difference between investing in the stock market and investing in a business. However, the stock market doesn't have alife of its own. The success or failure of investment in stocks depends ultimately on the same factors that determine success or failure of any business. Statistical tests that supposedly validate the EMH framework are based on a flawed method and a failure to understand that the main cause behind the instability in financial markets is the monetary policies of the central bank. Frank Shostak is chief economist at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Future, Sydney, Australia. The views expressed herein are his own and do not necessarily represent those of Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Futures. The author wishes to express his gratitude to the very helpful comments of two anonymous referees.     

股票市场系统动力学分析：以上海股票市场为例

本文突破了传统经济理论研究的线性框架,视股票为一非线性系统,运用分形、混沌等复杂性理论对上海股票市场的系统动力学特征进行实证研究,得出了上海股票市场系统的分形特征、复杂性程度、系统演化类型及稳定性,最后,探讨了这些结论对股票市场的理论与实践意义。     

More pessimism than greediness: a characterization of monotone risk aversion in the rank-dependent expected utility model

Summary. This paper studies monotone risk aversion, the aversion to monotone, mean-preserving increase in risk (Quiggin [21]), in the Rank Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model. This model replaces expected utility by another functional, characterized by two functions, a utility function u in conjunction with a probability-perception function f. Monotone mean-preserving increases in risk are closely related to the notion of comparative dispersion introduced by Bickel and Lehmann [3,4] in Non-parametric Statistics. We present a characterization of the pairs (u,f) of monotone risk averse decision makers, based on an index of greediness G _u of the utility function u and an index of pessimism P _f of the probability perception function f: the decision maker is monotone risk averse if and only if . The index of greediness (non-concavity) of u is the supremum of taken over . The index of pessimism of f is the infimum of taken over 0 < v < 1. Thus, , with G _u = 1 iff u is concave. If then , i.e., f is majorized by the identity function. Since P _f = 1 for Expected Utility maximizers, forces u to be concave in this case; thus, the characterization of risk aversion as is a direct generalization from EU to RDEU. A novel element is that concavity of u is not necessary. In fact, u must be concave only if P _f = 1.Received: 10 April 2001, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D81. Correspondence to: Michéle CohenAlain Chateauneuf, Michéle Cohen, Isaac Meilijson: We are most grateful to Mark Machina, Peter Wakker and two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions and comments.     

Multilevel versus single-level substitution: The case of the beverage can market

Multilevel substitution has been argued to be the prevalent form of substitution in the current industrial world. This paper summarizes the multilevel critique of the single-level process, highlighting the importance of data interpretation to this criticism. A case study of substitution in the beverage can market is analyzed and three differing conclusions are supported depending on the interpretation given to the data.     

The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises

Albert Hirschman's unbalanced growth hypothesis suggests that a developing economy can promote economic growth by initially investing in industries with high backward and forward linkages. In the case of Chinese economic policy today, one application would be the continued presence of the state in high-linkage sectors and the strategic withdrawal of the state from low-linkage sectors. The evidence shows that while the degree of linkage plays an important role in generating economic growth in China, province-specific withdrawal strategies for the state sector have no effect on economic growth.     

Job market outcomes for IDPs: The case of Georgia

Internally displaced people (IDPs) constitute a serious economic, social and cultural problem for many countries, including countries in transition. Despite the importance of the problem, there are only a handful of previous studies investigating the issue of labour market outcomes for IDPs. Moreover, the impact of protracted displacement has not been addressed in academic work at all. We aim to fill this gap in the literature using 13 years (2004–2016) of Integrated Household Surveys from Georgia, which has experienced a large flow of internal migrants from the early 1990s until now. Our analyses indicate that the labour market outcomes for IDPs are much worse than those for local residents. Specifically, IDPs are 3.9–11.2 percentage points less likely to be in the labour force, depending on the period and duration of IDP status. IDPs are also up to 11.6 percentage points more likely to be unemployed, even after 20 years of forced displacement. Finally, IDPs residing in a locality for more than five years receive persistently lower wages than local residents with similar characteristics, with the gap widening over time, reaching some 11% in the last period under analysis.     

Estimating IPO pricing efficiency by Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis: The ChiNext market case

Based on the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis (BSFA), this paper empirically studies the pricing efficiency of initial public offering in the ChiNext market from October 2009 to January 2014. The average pricing efficiency calculated by the BSFA model is 0.5908, suggesting that most of the information about the issuers is not reflected in the offering price. Meanwhile, Fundamentals of issuers, Information asymmetry, Issue characteristics, and Market environments have different effects on IPO pricing.