CHINA'S NATIONAL INCOME: A SURVEY OF ESTIMATES

A number of official and Western estimates of China's national income for the period since 1949 are at present available. The official estimates are based on the Marxian production concept while the Western estimates are, in the main, based on the comprehensive production concept. The periods covered by the estimates vary; and even in cases where the periods covered are the same, the estimates vary in magnitude and, in most cases, in the implied rate of economic growth. Apart from differences arising from the different national income concepts and definitions employed in individual estimates, sources of discrepancies between series of estimates can be traced to the particular sets of primary data employed and also to the particular procedures followed in estimating the national income components. The present paper brings together the various estimates available to date and indicates for each, as far as possible, the basic production concept adopted, the particular national income aggregates estimated, the basic estimation approach employed, and the special procedures used for estimating some of the components of national income. Comparisons of the major series of estimates for the period 1952–1959 are made and the sources of discrepancies between the series are discussed. Finally, some problems are described which a researcher in the West has to contend with in working on China's national income accounting.     

Nonlinear Exchange Rate Adjustment in the Enlarged Eurozone: Evidence and Implications for Candidate Countries

This paper sheds light on the importance of the validity of PPP hypothesis for the accessing process of the candidate countries towards EMU. The evidence of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates suggests the estimation of a nonlinear SETAR model. While linear half‐life estimates are biased upward (five years on average), SETAR half‐life estimates imply a faster reverting process (1.5 years on average). Moreover, we found that TPI‐based real exchange rates are more appropriate than CPI‐based real exchange rates in testing for PPP hypothesis. For the cluster of EMU countries and for the pre‐EMU period, our nonlinear model confirms stationarity for the majority of the TPI‐based real exchange rates with half‐life estimates less than a year.     

通货膨胀实时预测及菲利普斯曲线的适用性

本文从实时分析的视角,基于多种退势方法的产出缺口最终估计、准最终估计和实时估计序列,分别构建了四类预测模型对我国通货膨胀率进行预测,分析了产出缺口修正效应和滞后阶数变化效应对通胀预测的影响,并进一步考察了产出缺口在通胀预测中的作用及菲利普斯曲线在通胀预测中的适用性。研究结论表明,通胀率的实时预测效果要明显比基于最终数据的差,其中滞后阶数变化效应对实时预测精度的影响大于产出缺口修正效应;尤为重要的是,尽管在最终数据的预测分析中,产出缺口的引入能够提高通胀率的预测精度,但是在实时预测中,产出缺口没有提供有价值的信息,因此"产出—通胀"型菲利普斯曲线在我国通胀实时预测中并不适用。     

SOURCES OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN AUSTRALIAN TEXTILE AND CLOTHING FIRMS*

This paper estimates the sources of productivity growth in Australian textile and clothing firms based on the Business Longitudinal Survey (BLS) from 1995 to 1998. Productivity growth estimates have been obtained for each sub‐category of textile and clothing firms. Sources of growth in multifactor productivity (MFP) are examined with growth in technical efficiency and scale effects based on estimates of stochastic frontier production functions. Separate estimates of output growth have been compared with the productivity growth estimates for each of the product categories. MFP improved in all clothing firms and declined in textile firms over 1997–1998 by four‐digit level of Australia New Zealand Standard Industrial classification Scheme (ANZSIC). MFP declined in most major categories of both textile and clothing firms in 1995–1997. Changes in technical efficiency mostly dominated scale effects in the overall direction of MFPG in both textile and clothing firms. The findings of the study provide evidence for policies for improving the firms’ operative performance in the ongoing liberalised regime.     

Detecting intra-national PPP model in China: A median-unbiased estimation approach

This paper studies the speed of price adjustments toward the intra-national PPP level within China based on half-life measurement. We calculate the point estimates of half-lives and the corresponding confidence intervals using median-unbiased estimation methods to correct for downward bias in least squares estimates. The point estimates of half-lives indicate that the speed of mean reversion toward convergence between region pairs is fast. A strong conclusion about the high speed of adjustments is, however, unwarranted in some regions where the confidence intervals for half-life estimates are much wider than others.     

Reply to Gebhard Kirchgässner

In this reply to Kirchgässner, four issues are addressed: (1) the extent of double counting in attempts to reconcile estimates of the shadow economy based on the survey method and estimates based on the MIMIC (cum currency demand) approach, (2) advantages and disadvantages of the survey method, (3) of macro methods like the MIMIC approach and (4) the potential role of plausibility checks of estimates from the MIMIC approach with the survey method.     

Power laws in top wealth distributions: evidence from Canada

This article investigates Pareto power law (PPL) behavior at the top of the Canadian wealth distribution. To this end, Canadian Business data on the wealthiest 100 Canadians for the years 1999–2008 are used. The resulting estimates of the PPL exponent ranged from approximately 1.0 to 1.3 depending on the year of analysis and the estimation method used. These estimates are roughly comparable to those based on Forbes’ list of the wealthiest 400 Americans. Furthermore, whereas modified OLS and maximum likelihood estimates of the power law exponents conform to Zipf’s law, the OLS estimates do not. These results raise some concerns about deducing the magnitudes of and trends in the power law exponents based on a single estimation method and highlight the importance of extensive hypothesis testing for model adequacy. The battery of diagnostic tests pertaining to PPL behavior at the top of the Canadian wealth distribution yields some conflicting results.     

World Productivity Growth: A Model Averaging Approach

Policy makers and the economic researchers who provide them estimates of economic activity need to have an informative and scientifically‐based method to develop a consensus estimate for the most basic of the productivity measures, total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We discuss methods to combine the various estimates based on different empirical specifications that model and estimate productivity growth. We also discuss the various econometric approaches used in the profession to estimate productivity growth. Our focus is on world TFP growth.     

REVISED REAL CANADIAN GNP ESTIMATES AND CANADIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1870–1926

Revised Canadian real GNP estimates for the 1870–1926 period, based on the nominal GNP estimates constructed by M. C. Urquhart and on a variety of sector-specific price indexes, are presented below. The construction of this revised real GNP series allows for the creation of real output estimates for the major sectors of the Canadian economy as well as for a new implicit price index series. These revised estimates cast new light on our present understanding of Canadian economic growth and reinforce the view that the Canadian wheat boom probably played an important and positive role in the process of Canadian economic development.     

Estimates of the option values for water quality improvements

This paper presents estimates of the option values associated with increased oppurtunities for outdoor recreation resulting from improved water quality. The estimates are based on a 1981 survey of 301 households in the Pennsylvania Monongahela River Basin.     

A COMPARISON OF SOME SHORT-CUT METHODS OF ESTIMATING REAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA

Several recent studies of short-cut estimates comparing real income (on a purchasing power basis) of countries are reviewed, including methods comparing real income based on indicators, like electricity consumption. New estimates are presented for 101 countries which had a tradition of conventional national income estimates in 1965, and for 40 countries without extended national income series. One conclusion from the empircial analysis was that until there exist a large number of countries for which purchasing power estimates of real income are available, it is difficult to discriminate between alternative short-cut methods using indicators, and difficult to estimate real per capita incomes of low income countries without substantial errors of estimate. The paper advocates more purchasing power estimates, and institutionalizing the collection of international prices of specified items so that abbreviated market baskets can be readily compared across countries.     

VaR-implied tail-correlation matrices

Empirical evidence suggests that asset returns correlate more strongly in bear markets than conventional correlation estimates imply. We propose a method for determining complete tail-correlation matrices based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates. We demonstrate how to obtain more efficient tail-correlation estimates by use of overidentification strategies and how to guarantee positive semidefiniteness, a property required for valid risk aggregation and Markowitz-type portfolio optimization. An empirical application to a 30-asset universe illustrates the practical applicability and relevance of the approach in portfolio management.     

An international study of persistence in output: Parametric estimates using the data dependent systems approach

This paper parametrically obtains estimates of persistence in output using Pandit's (1977, 1982) Data Dependent Systems approach for modelling autoregressive and moving average processes. The estimates are based on over a century of annual data for the rate of change of output in nine industrialized countries. The sensitivity of estimates to various model selection criteria is examined. While persistence in output is found to be sensitive to model selection criteria, the output of all countries including the United States is found to have a substantial degree of persistence if the ARMA models are chosen according to the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion, but excluding the ARMA models whose moving average roots are near the unit root (which involves pile-up phenomenon). Moreover, the parametric estimates of persistence are shown not to have the known upward bias problem commonly associated with parametric estimates of persistence relative to nonparametric estimates.     

WORKING WITH WHAT WE HAVE: HOW CAN EXISTING DATA BE USED IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC MATRICES?1

This paper outlines a general strategy for constructing socio-demographic matrices, starting with a set of initial estimates based on available data and ending with a set of final estimates adjusted to meet the constraints connecting their true values. The method is described and illustrated by a numerical example taken from the author's current work on marital transition matrices. The figures relate to the male population of England and Wales in 1978 and are based on British official statistics of population numbers, births, deaths, migrations, marriages, widowhoods and divorces.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF U.S. REAL CAPITAL INPUT, 1929–1967

The purpose of this paper is to develop methods for the measurement of real capital input. These methods are based on perpetual inventory estimates of capital stock and corresponding estimates of capital service prices. Stocks and service prices are adjusted for relative utilization of capital. The resulting estimates represent a separation of income from capital into price and quantity components. Estimates of capital input in current and constant prices are constructed for corporate business, non-corporate business, and households and non-profit institutions in the United States for the period 1929–1967. These estimates are prepared in a form suitable for integration into the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.     

Egypt's Growth Performance Under Economic Liberalism: A Reassessment With New GDP Estimates, 1886–1945

The stagnation of Egyptian living standards in the first half of the 20th century has been widely presumed in economic history. However, this conventional wisdom is partially based on a fragmented body of evidence on aggregate output. In particular, no estimates of national income exist for any extended period prior to World War II. Using a money–based cointegration approach and a new measure of broad money, we exploit Egypt's intimate economic links with the U.K. to provide the first continuous estimates of GDP for the period 1886–1945. Our estimates are consistent with trends in agriculture and other stylized facts about the Egyptian economy in the late 19th and early 20th century. The empirical results provide qualified support to the conventional wisdom about Egypt's growth performance in addition to offering a detailed characterization of output cycles.     

Estimating the revenue losses of international corporate tax avoidance: the case of the Czech Republic

International corporate tax avoidance by multinational enterprises likely lowers the Czech Republic’s corporate income tax revenue, but it is not clear by how much. To clarify this I first review existing estimates of the revenue losses of international corporate tax avoidance to government revenue worldwide. I then discuss revenue estimates relevant for the Czech Republic and develop a few new, albeit only illustrative, ones. None of the existing research focused on the Czech Republic nor did the six recent international studies I examine provide reliable estimates for the Czech Republic. The extrapolations from these studies result in a revenue loss of a quite wide range with a median of 10% of current corporate income tax revenues. The other newly prepared estimates, based on firm-level and aggregate data, are of similar magnitude. I conclude with a discussion of these rough estimates as well as questions for further research and policy recommendations.     

Valuing Unpaid Child Care in the U.S.: A Prototype Satellite Account Using the American Time Use Survey

This paper builds on previous satellite accounts that treat households as production units, but challenges their measurement and valuation of time devoted to child care, making a case for the inclusion of supervisory child care time that does not overlap with other productive activities. We also suggest several other methodological refinements for estimates based on analysis of data from the American Time Use Survey: application of a vector of specialized replacement cost wage estimates for different child care activities rather than a single wage, and adjustments for the ratio of children to adults present and for the educational attainment of caregivers. Our estimates of the value of child care alone in 2004 and 2010 exceed previous estimates of the value of all non‐market household production in the U.S. The end result is an upward adjustment of Gross Domestic Product by about 43 percent compared to previous adjustments of about 26 percent.     

The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2010. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap tend to be characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability and model uncertainty, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. Some euro area real-time measures, based on multivariate components models and capacity utilisation, are relatively less uncertain, but do not appear to be fully reliable along some dimensions. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real-time estimates tend to be revised to a lesser extent than euro area estimates. However, euro area real-time output gap estimates tend to display a higher correlation with the final estimates and the sign of the level of US real-time estimates tends to be revised more often compared to the corresponding euro area estimates. In addition, the data revision component of the revision error is larger for US estimates than for the euro area. Overall, the unreliability in real-time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent period.     

The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates From a Structural Var

The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is widely used in the analysis and discussion of macroeconomic policy. It is, however, unobservable so that estimates of the natural rate are necessarily based on a particular theory of unemployment. Hence, measures of the natural rate, whether constant or time-varying, are necessarily model-dependent. Various series based on specific models have recently become available for Australia. We set out to compute a series for the natural rate based on a minimal theoretical structure captured by a two-variable structural vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model estimated using quarterly Australian data for the period 1978–1997. We assess the robustness of our estimates by varying both the theoretical restriction imposed on the model and the two variables included in the model. We find that the computed natural rate is quite sensitive to model specification, both in terms of the level and of the cyclical behaviour of the natural rate. We argue, however, that a particular variant of our model is strongly preferred to the others investigated. It produces an estimates natural rate series the behaviour of which is broadly consistent with that of series produced by others from more restrictive models.