Economists free ride,does anyone else?: Experiments on the provision of public goods,IV

Eleven closely related experiments testing the free rider hypothesis under different conditions, and sampling various subpopulations, are reported. Results question the empirical validity and generality of a strong version of the hypothesis. Some reasons for its failure are discussed.     

Induced innovation: an empirical test

A method is developed to empirically test the hypothesis of induced innovation as it has been specified and used in the theoretical literature. A strong and a weak version of the hypothesis is tested using sectorial data from the USA, Canada, Germany, France and the UK. The strong version tests for the exact dependency of the relation between the change in factor-productivities on the one hand and relative prices and actual factor-productivities on the other hand. The weak version only tests for the direction of this dependency. In all countries the weak hypothesis is accepted in all sectors except in ‘electricity, gas, and water’. The strong hypothesis is accepted in about half of all sectors. It is rejected only in sectors, in which the degree to which progress is intentional is low.     

On education,screening and human capital

The paper tests the hypothesis that educational attainment acts, inter alia, as a screening device for worker selection by comparing the average educational level of pairs of screened and non-screened groups within similar occupational categories. The results, based on Israeli data, support the view that strong screening effects are at work.     

Economic Convergence in Seven Asian Economies

The impressive economic growth in a select group of Asian economies in the last several decades prompts some to argue that authoritarianism helps rapid economic growth while democracy hampers it. In this paper, we used the panel data approach to test this hypothesis for seven Asian economies, including South Korea, Singapore, and China. Our results reject the strong version of this hypothesis but fail to reject the weak version of it. Specifically, we found insignificant impacts of political freedom but significant effects of economic freedom on advancing economic convergence in these economies.     

Evidence on the weak and the strong versions of the screening hypothesis in the United States

This paper extends the works of Psacharopoulos (1979), Lee (1980), and Liu and Wong (1982) by controlling for differences in ability and testing both versions of the screening hypothesis. Using micro data from the United States, the empirical results do not support either the theoretical strong or weak versions of the screening hypothesis.     

Life-Cycle Consumption under Rational Expectations: Some Australian Evidence*

Using Australian data, this note tests the srochastic implications of Hall's (1978) national-expectations life-cycle consumption model. The strong version of the hypothesis can only be rejected using lagged values of the change in the unemployment rate and a particular measure of disposable income.     

Revisiting the Porter hypothesis: an empirical analysis of Green innovation for the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

Almost all empirical research that has attempted to assess the validity of the Porter hypothesis (PH) has started from reduced-form models, for example, single-equation models for estimating the contribution of environmental regulation to productivity. This paper follows a structural approach that allows testing what is known in the literature as the ‘weak’ and the ‘strong’ version of the PH. Our ‘Green Innovation’ model includes three types of eco-investments to explain differences in the incidence of two types of eco-innovation, which are allowed to affect labor productivity. We allow for complementarity between the two types of eco-innovations. Using a comprehensive panel of Dutch manufacturing firm-level data we estimate the relative importance of environmental regulations on eco-investment and eco-innovations. The results of our analysis show a strong corroboration of the weak and a nuanced corroboration of the strong version of the PH.     

Approximation by finite horizons of the undiscounted one-sector growth model

Summary. In this paper I give a method for finding long-run-average policies in the undiscounted economic growth problem using approximations by finite horizons. Required hypothesis is the strong interiority of T-horizon solutions. Received: March 25, 1996; revised version: July 29, 1997     

An evaluation of excess demand,actual cost and normal cost pricing hypotheses using non-nested tests

This paper has emperically analyzed three versions(zero lag,geometric lag and almon lag) of three price change hypotheses – namely the excess demand, actual cost and the normal cost hypothesis – the goal being to select the hypothesis that describes the underlying price dynamics for manufactured goods. The rival models are specified as non-nested alternatives and each version is estimated by using an efficient estimator. The traditional discrimination criteria which clearly reject the zero lag version, are found to be impotent in discriminating between the dynamic versions of the models. A sequential cross-evaluation of the two dynamic versions using both pairwise and multiple non-nested hypothesis tests proposed by Davidson and MacKinnon reveals a systematic domination by the almon version of normal cost pricing over both the excess demand and the actual cost pricing mechanisms in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the period 1961:1–87:4. This result is robust under alternative specifications of the desired stock of inventories for the excess demand model. The finding implies that short–run variations in demand conditions or in actual unit costs arising from temperoary changes in productivity may not paly a significant role in manufactured goods pricing decisions.     

Unit roots,postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks

This paper provides evidence on the unit root hypothesis and long-term growth by allowing for two structural breaks. We reject the unit root hypothesis for three-quarters of the countries – approximately 50% more rejections than in models that allow for only one break. While about half of the countries exhibit slowdowns following their postwar breaks, the others have grown along paths that have become steeper over the past 120 years. The majority of the countries, including most of the slowdown countries, exhibit faster growth after their second breaks than during the decades preceding their first breaks. First version received: May 2001/Final version received: January 2002     

Testing for unit roots with income distribution data

In this paper I test the unit root hypothesis for US log GNP using the information available in income distribution data. The percentile data of an income distribution are shown to follow the same autoregressive pattern as does mean income. Under the null hypothesis of a unit root log GNP is cointegrated with the percentile data. A sequence of augmented HEGY-Tests, however, presents strong evidence against the unit root hypothesis for the distribution data and hence for log GNP. Using a full information estimation procedure for the percentiles under the alternative yields an estimate of the autoregressive coefficient which is in principle testable by an approximate Dickey-Hasza-Fuller test. The appropriate critical values are found by bootstrap methods. Again, inference is clearly unfavorable for the unit root hypothesis.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the ESEM 1993 in Uppsala. I thank Prof. Jürgen Wolters, seminar participants at the Free University of Berlin and an anonymous referee of this journal for valuable comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing,Global Sourcing,or Increasing Importance of MNE Networks?

Growth in trade is often seen to have played a dominant role in integrating national economies. Analyses of this role have, however, almost exclusively been based on trade in final goods. This paper attempts to address this problem by analyzing recent growth in intermediate goods. Three possible causes are posited for this growth: outsourcing, global sourcing, and the increasing importance of MNE networks. These are examined in two analytical frameworks: one using OECD input–output table data and one using German time‐series data. Results from both frameworks give strong support to the hypothesis that international production plays a great role in explaining the strong increase in intermediate inputs imports of developed countries. The evidence for the hypothesis that the increasing importance of the MNE network causes the growing trade in intermediate goods is especially strong. The outsourcing hypothesis receives also some support.     

Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: The case of Turkey

This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1–1995:3 and tests whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary. This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue. Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered period. First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998     

Escaping Nash Inflation

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of self-referential systems under discounted least squares learning. Another ODE governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self-confirming equilibrium. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsey (commitment) inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government.
"If an unlikely event occurs, it is very likely to occur in the most likely way."
Michael Harrison     

Emigration,wage differentials and brain drain: the case of Suriname

In this article, we examine two hypotheses concerning emigration. The first hypothesis is that emigration is positively correlated with wage differentials. The second hypothesis concerns a positive correlation between emigration and higher education in the sending country (the so-called brain gain hypothesis). We analyse unique time-series data for Suriname for the period 1972–2009, for which we fit error correction models to disentangle short-run from long-run effects. We document moderate support for the first hypothesis, but we find strong support for the brain drain (and not brain gain) hypothesis. We conclude with implications of our findings for Suriname.     

Education, Employment Status and Earnings: A Comparative Test of the Strong Screening Hypothesis

We apply the comparative technique originated by Wolpin (1977) to discriminate between the 'weak' and 'strong' screening hypothesises. Controlling for self-selection, we find evidence for weak but not strong screening.     

Environmental Innovations and Firm Profitability: Unmasking the Porter Hypothesis

We examine impacts of different types of environmental innovations on firm profits. Following Porter’s (Sci Am 264(4):168, 1991) hypothesis that environmental regulation can improve firms’ competitiveness, we distinguish between regulation-induced and voluntary environmental innovations. We find that innovations which do not improve firms’ resource efficiency do not provide positive returns to profitability. However, innovations that increase a firm’s resource efficiency in terms of material or energy consumption per unit of output have a positive impact on profitability. This positive result holds for both regulation-induced and voluntary innovations, although the effect is greater for regulation-driven innovation. We conclude that the Porter hypothesis does not hold in general for its “strong” version, but depends on the type of environmental innovation. Our findings rest on firm-level data from the German part of the Community Innovation Survey 2008 (CIS 2008).     

An evaluation of the equilibrium value of the euro,its predecessors and their constituent currencies based on economic fundamentals

This study presents constructed equilibrium exchange rates (EERs) of the euro and its predecessors the European Unit of Account and the European Currency Unit, as well as the euro’s member states using a relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) equilibrium. The revealed patterns of over- and undervaluation demonstrate how well suited the northern member states, in contrast to the southern states, were for the monetary union. Moreover, a relative persistent overvaluation for Greece and Portugal suggests that their ambition to join the euro reduced their competitiveness. The constructed EERs of the euro suggest the European Commission was able to set the initial value of the euro with a high degree of accuracy. Furthermore, the EERs indicate a successive strengthening of the fundamental value of the euro versus the U.S. dollar from 1999 to 2015. The analysis shows a close correlation between the deviations from equilibrium and the events of Greece’s sovereign debt crisis. In addition, the presented graphs show strong support for the PPP hypothesis. The results are robust to different constructed EERs and offer a guide to international market participants interested in the general equilibrium path of the euro and its predecessors.     

Convergence across industrialised countries (1890–1989): new results using time series methods

Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kalman filter convergence tests are applied to annual GDPs per head to 16 industrialised countries from 1890 to 1989. Results favour convergence towards the US with a structural break following the Second World War. Estimates suggest that steady-states were higher after the war and that speeds of convergence are different across countries. The Kalman filter method dismissed the no convergence hypothesis more often than its ADF counterpart. This could explain the apparent contradiction in earlier empirical work on similar data sets (cross-section methods tended to favour convergence while time series methods were unable to dismiss the no convergence hypothesis.) First version received: February 1996/final version received: September 1997