Introduction to monetary and macro economics

This introduces the symposium on monetary and macro economics.     

Hicksian monetary economics and contemporary financial innovation

In the light of developments in financial markets the very foundations of monetary economics are being re-evaluated. This article assesses the implications of Hicks's arguments in the context of such developments. It is suggested that Hicks's more recent monetary theory, with its ‘neo-Wicksellian’ or ‘Radcliffian’ overtones has a great deal to offer.     

Patinkin on Irving Fisher's monetary economics

This paper examines Patinkin's analysis of Fisher's monetary economics, with regard to the integration of monetary and value theory, the origins of the Chicago school and Fisher's relationship to Cambridge monetary theory.     

The monetary economics of Jules Dupuit

This paper analyses Dupuit's views on money, bimetallism, free banking and credit. By means of textual and contextual analysis, I argue that Dupuit endorsed the quantity theory based on the neutrality of money. For him, the value of money was determined by supply and demand. The only exception concerned the redistributive effects of gold between trading nations. Dupuit's approach to credit and his views on the issuance of banknotes were distinct from those of most French liberals. He did not consider credit to be capital, and he warned against the overissue of banknotes.     

Viewpoint: A microfoundation of monetary economics

Abstract .  In this lecture, I explain what the microfoundations of money are about and why they are necessary for monetary economics. Then, I review recent developments of a particular microfoundation of money, commonly known as the search theory of money. Finally, I outline some unresolved issues.     

The modern foundations of Marx's monetary economics

The first chapters of Capital are still often ‘tlerated’, Mirowski (1986: 222) reminds us, as a ‘regrettable metaphysical residuum of [Max's] Hegelian [past]’. Such ‘tolerance’ has unfortunate consequences, howeve, not the least of which is Marx's reputation for ‘theoretical metallism’, simple and derivative. This paper builds on the recent efforts of de Brunhoff (1981), Lavoie (1983) and others to deconstruct, with support from Grundrisse and related texts, the important thrid chapter of Capital, Marx's account of the universal equivalent's four functions. As it is identified here, the chapter's core includes ‘pody-Keynesian’ elements– a reversal of the Ricardian view of the quantity equation, an effective demand principle in which capitalists’ dcisions about the recommitment of hoards assume a prominent role, and the deermination of interest rates, in the short term, on the basis of liquidity preference-– but does not include, in the conventional sense, a commodity theory of money.     

当代新凯恩斯主义货币经济学的新发展

将垄断竞争和名义刚性假设引入MIU模型,新凯恩斯主义者建立了与AS-IS-LM模型简单线性形式相一致的一般动态均衡模型,实现了基于微观最优行为的动态一般均衡货币理论模型与适用于货币政策分析的线性宏观经济模型的统一,政策分析的重点转向政策目标和工具规则的统一.但是,在政策目标选择,通货膨胀的动态性和政策工具规则设定方面仍未达成共识.     

The symmetry of real purchasing power and the neoclassical monetary growth model

It has been argued that the usual instability property of the neoclassical monetary growth model can be removed if an asymmetric treatment of real purchasing power between the real and monetary sectors is eliminated, i.e., if the demand for money is made to depend on disposable income and not income. Basically, the argument is that this symmetry can offset the destabilizing forces of the Wicksell effect of the rate of inflation on the demand for money. We show that, under the usual stipulations of the model, the instability (saddle-point) nature of the model cannot be altered by such an argument.     

On some parity conditions encountered frequently in international economics

Interest Rate Parity, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Fisher relation between real and nominal interest are intimately connected consequences of optimal multi-period consumption/investment decisions. These three relations hold in their classic form only under complete certainty. With uncertainty, interest rate parity remains unaltered, but more complex equations involving risk premia obtain for purchasing power parity and the Fisher relation. A more complete market (with commodity futures) simplifies considerably these latter two conditions.     

Reforming the international monetary system: a stock-flow-consistent approach

Abstract:

The emergence and persistence of large trade imbalances as well as the volatility of financial flows among countries have been attributed, at least in part, to the inadequacy of the current international monetary system after the breakdown of Bretton Woods. From a different perspective, the current eurozone crisis is also the result, in our view, of a flawed institutional setting. These problems call for reforms to mitigate or avoid the recessionary bias that is the outcome of current systems, as Keynes predicted in the discussion preceding the Bretton Woods agreements. In this paper we briefly review the evidence on international imbalances, and survey the rapidly growing literature on the subject. We introduce a set of models based on the stock-flow-consistent approach pioneered by Godley (1999 Godley, W. “Open Economy Macroeconomics Using Models of Closed Systems.” Working Paper no. 281, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, 1999. [Google Scholar]) and Lavoie and Godley (2003 Lavoie, M., and Godley, W. “Two-Country Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics Using a Closed Model Within a Dollar Exchange Regime.” CERF Working Paper no. 10, University of Cambridge, 2003. [Google Scholar]). We discuss how to use these models to explore potential reform of the international monetary system.     

住房的政治经济学:国际政治经济学的一个新视界

住房的政治经济学是欧美近年刚刚出现的研究领域,主要以比较政治经济学和国际政治经济学,特别是日常政治经济学作为理论基础,重新对住房金融制度、住房政策体系和住房市场进行审视。住房政治经济学为分析住房政策和当前的金融危机提供了不同的视角,并得出新的结论。这些视角和结论对中国发展和社会改革具有启示意义。本文按照主要议题、运行机制和理论基础对住房政治经济学研究进行了解读,并从时代背景、理论建构、逻辑关系和研究视角四个方面对住房政治经济学的发展方向和不足之处进行了剖析。最后讨论了住房政治经济学研究对当前中国的现实启示。     

Keynes,the socialisation of trade,and international monetary institutions

While Keynes began formulating his ideas concerning the post-WWII international financial system in the early 1940s, the genesis of these ideas can be traced to his earlier work. The Keynes Plan represents the culmination of his search for adequate institutions that guide economic activity for the public good. The reasons given by Keynes for the establishment of an International Clearing Bank are relevant in the modern international economy, given the current imbalances in international trade. As Keynes argued for the socialisation of investment as a method to achieve full-employment in the domestic economy, he argued for the “socialisation of trade” as a method to achieve international economic balance among nations.     

Causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in Central and Eastern European countries

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The analysis is conducted using panel quarterly data from the period 2001–12 for Central and Eastern European countries (including Turkey) with relatively flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper reconnects the empirical literature on exchange rates in Central and Eastern European countries with the most recent findings on exchange rate determination in advanced economies. Kóyna's approach, which accounts for linkages between countries, is used in the study. The main findings indicate the existence of causal relations running from both nominal exchange rates to monetary fundamentals and in the opposite direction as well as the existence of a relatively strong link between exchange rates and differentials in the relative price of non‐tradables.     

Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy

This paper examines the influence of monetary aggregates shocks in the U.S., China and the Euro area on Japan. China's monetary expansion has significant effects on Japan's economy that are quite different from those of the U.S. and Euro area. In line with the implications of the Mundell–Fleming model when there are capital controls in place, Chinese monetary expansion is found to primarily affect Japan through trade. The income absorption effect of China's monetary expansion is substantial for Japan. China's monetary expansion results in significant increases in Japan's industrial production, exports and inflation, and decreases in the trade-weighted yen. After 24 months, monetary shocks in China forecast 20% of the variation in Japan's real trade balance. In contrast, U.S. monetary expansion results in contraction in Japan's industrial production, exports and trade balance (expenditure-switching). Monetary expansion in the Euro area does not significantly affect Japan. Structural vector error correction models and a factor-augmented model are estimated to establish robustness of results.