The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2010. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap tend to be characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability and model uncertainty, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. Some euro area real-time measures, based on multivariate components models and capacity utilisation, are relatively less uncertain, but do not appear to be fully reliable along some dimensions. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real-time estimates tend to be revised to a lesser extent than euro area estimates. However, euro area real-time output gap estimates tend to display a higher correlation with the final estimates and the sign of the level of US real-time estimates tends to be revised more often compared to the corresponding euro area estimates. In addition, the data revision component of the revision error is larger for US estimates than for the euro area. Overall, the unreliability in real-time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent period.     

A golden rule for uncertain monopolists

It is shown that monopolists who are uncertain of the level of output at which they will maximise profits can use a simple decision rule, based on the ‘golden section’, for choosing an efficient sequence of experiments.     

Foreign direct investment and the correlation between cost and revenue

This paper studies irreversible investment in the presence of uncertain revenue and uncertain cost of production. Using methodology of real options, we find the threshold markup of price over cost that triggers investment. When the processes for revenue and cost are negatively correlated, the standard result that uncertainty delays investment always holds. However, when these two processes are positively correlated, greater uncertainty of revenue or cost might accelerate investment. As less correlated cost and revenue, vertical FDI is less desirable than producing at home, but horizontal FDI that brings production to the output market is an advantage.     

Forward markets and the multiproduct,multifactor firm under price uncertainty

In this paper a competitive firm producing multiple outputs with multiple inputs is examined. All input and output prices are uncertain, and forward markets exist for all prices. The firm's optimal production and forward market strategies are analyzed.     

On the theory of the competitive firm with a utility function defined on profits and regret

In this paper we analyze the optimal output determined by a competitive firm facing uncertain demand. We analyze the effect of introducing uncertainty and the effect of increasing uncertainty on the optimal output, under the assumption that the utility function of the firm depends both on profits and on regret. We show that if the firm is more risk averse to profits than to regret (in a sense described below), both effects tend to decrease the optimal output. Similar effects of introducing uncertainty and of increased uncertainty were previously shown by Sandmo (1971) to exist in the case where utility is defined on profits only. Thus, this paper provides conditions under which the above results hold true, even when utility is defined on regret and on profits.     

The Lags of Monetary Policy

The length of the transmission lags from monetary pblicy to output has been the subject of much research over the years, but there are serious problems in isolating the lags with any precision. This paper uses a simple model of Australian output to estimate the length of the lags, and then examines how attempts to grapple with the estimation problems might change the results.
We estimate that output growth falls by about one-third of one per cent in both the first and second years after a one percentage point rise in the short-term real interest rate, and by about one-sixth of one per cent in the third year. This implies an average lag of about five or six quarters in monetary policy's impact on output growth. Each of these estimates is, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications for policy of these relatively long and uncertain lags. Finally, we find no evidence that the average lag from monetary policy to output growth has become any shorter in the 1990s.     

Ramsey discounting calls for subtracting climate damages from economic growth rates

The Ramsey equation ties the utility discount rate and the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption together with per capita consumption growth rates to calculate consumption discount rates. For many applications, per capita consumption growth rates can be approximated with per capita output growth rates. That approximation does not work for climate change, which drives an ever-increasing and increasingly uncertain wedge between output and consumption growth. NAS (2017), in a central recommendation and illustrative example, conflates the two. The correct, consumption-based discounting method generally decreases consumption discount rates and, thus, increases the resulting Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide (SC-CO₂).     

UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSITIVE THEORY OF THE PUBLIC ENTERPRISE*

This paper extends the analysis of Rees (1984a) of a public enterprise pursuing a size-related objective in the face of uncertain demand to a situation where its managers may be risk neutral or risk averse and where the public enterprise may produce more than one output. The optimal pricing policy of the public enterprise is analysed and the importance of not only the expected profit constraint but also the attitude to risk of the public enterprise in determining its relative prices is demonstrated.     

Asymmetries in price and quantity adjustments by the competitive firm

Focusing on the crucial role of inventory carry-overs in the production and sales decision, we describe the profit maximizing behavior of a dynamic competitive firm facing random prices. Each firm's behavior is incorporated into a stochastic equilibrium model of the competitive industry with uncertain demand. The industry model exhibits asymmetric cyclical fluctuations of the “Keynesian” sort: when demand is weak, output contracts while price holds at a fixed floor; when demand is strong, price increases as output is constrained by a ceiling. Even in a pure world of constant returns, without increasing costs, the inability to instantaneously coordinate production and sales along with the existence of inventories is sufficient to yield a “backward L” shaped supply curve for the short run.     

Commodity taxes under uncertainty

This paper considers the relative distorting effect on output of commodity taxes, specific and ad valorem, in a situation where a firm faces revenue uncertainty. It is shown generally that this effect depends both on the precise nature of the firm's revenue uncertainty and on the degree of its risk aversion. More specifically, the distorting effect of each tax is characterised for a selection of objective functions and uncertain environments. These characterisations are compared in order to show the influence of alternative specifications on the relative distorting effect.     

The optimal choice of central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty

This paper examines the optimal monetary delegation arrangement of central bank independence and conservatism in the presence of uncertainty about the central bank’s output objective. We show that full independence is no longer optimal with uncertain central bank preferences, and that optimal delegation involves the choice of both independence and conservatism. Further, we find that the usual trade-off between independence and conservatism no longer necessarily holds. Consequently, high central bank independence may also require a high level of conservatism.     

ACCOUNTABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY ABOUT CENTRAL BANK PREFERENCES FOR MODEL ROBUSTNESS

Using a New Keynesian model subject to misspecifications, we examine the accountability issue in a framework of delegation where government and private agents are uncertain about the central bank's preference for model robustness. We show that, in the benchmark case of full transparency, the optimal inflation targeting weight (or penalty) is decreasing with the preference for robustness. Departing from the benchmark equilibrium, the central bank has then incentive to be less transparent in order to reduce the optimal inflation targeting weight and thus to become more independent vis‐à‐vis the government. We also find that greater opacity will increase the sensibility of inflation and model misspecification to the inflation shock but will decrease that of output‐gap. Since macroeconomic volatility could be increased or decreased under more opacity, there could exist in some cases a trade‐off between the level and the variability of inflation (and output gap). Persistent inflation shocks could be associated with a higher inflation targeting weight as well as a higher sensibility of inflation and output gap to the inflation shock but a lower sensibility of model misspecification.     

考虑风光出力不确定性的含电制氢装置的电-气耦合配网系统经济运行分析

高效节能的电-气耦合配网系统能够同时考虑经济效益和环境成本,对提升配电网系统的经济性具有重要作用。本文提出了一个两阶段分布式鲁棒优化模型来解决经济运行问题,运用Wasserstein测度刻画风光出力预测误差概率分布的模糊不确定集,并构建了考虑风光出力不确定性的含电制氢装置的电-气联合系统分布式鲁棒优化运行模型。仿真结果表明：①电制氢装置的引入可以有效改善配网系统的电-气耦合,提高系统运行的稳定性和经济性。②考虑到环境成本,含电制氢装置的电-气耦合配网系统的污染物排放显著降低,保证了系统的低碳运行。③分布式鲁棒优化（distributionally robust optimization,DRO）模型能够抵抗不确定风电和光伏输出的干扰,保守性和计算复杂度相对较低,具有数据驱动的特点。     

产需双重不确定情形下绿色农产品供应链的协调研究

为解决产需不确定性给绿色农产品供应链运营带来的复杂影响,寻求绿色农产品生产商和销售商面对产需双重不确定情形下各自的最优决策,研究从农产品产出和市场需求双重不确定性视角出发,结合目前消费者对绿色农产品的需求偏好,构建由生产商和销售商组成的Stackelberg博弈模型,探究收益共享契约能否有效协调产需都不确定的绿色农产品供应链。研究结果表明:分散决策时的批发价契约无法协调此供应链。引入收益共享契约后,在合适的共享系数范围内,生产商的农资投入量会增加,农产品的绿色度会比分散决策时高,同时销售商的销售价格降低;当农产品订购量变大后,引入契约后的生产商和销售商各自的利润相较于分散决策时更高。     

Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly

Summary.  This paper studies the impact of uncertain demand on firms’ capacity decisions when they operate in an oligopolistic environment. We define a two-stage game where firms choose capacity in the first stage without knowing which state of Nature is going to realize, and output levels in the second, knowing which state is realized. We prove the existence of a symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium at which firms are in excess capacity compared with the capacity they would choose in the Cournot certainty equivalent game. Received: May 17, 1996; revised version July 31, 1996     

Domestic and Foreign Sales When Prices in Both Markets are Uncertain

This paper obtains comparative static results for a firm that sells a single output domestically and abroad when prices in both markets are uncertain. Results are obtained for both constant absolute risk aversion and for Ross decreasing absolute risk aversion, using a diagrammatic analysis which exploits the properties of expected marginal utility contours. The results depend crucially on whether foreign and domestic sales are net substitutes or complements. The model is more complex and yields fewer unambiguous results – particularly in the case of substitutes – than when there is price uncertainty in only one market.     

Inventories and the Business Cycle: Testing a Sequential Trading Model

The uncertain and sequential trading (UST) model of inventories behavior with iid shocks predicts that (a) the beginning of period inventories is a sufficient statistic for past variables and (b) an increase in the beginning of period inventories reduces output, employment, hours per employee, and effort. I find empirical support for the second hypothesis but not for the first. The rejection of the first hypothesis is rather informative and points in the direction of adjustment costs and/or serially correlated shocks. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E220, E320.     

An experimental test of Taylor-type rules with inexperienced central bankers

We experimentally test monetary policy decision making in a population of inexperienced central bankers. In our experiments, subjects repeatedly set the short-term interest rate for a computer economy with inflation as their target. A large majority of subjects learn to successfully control inflation by correctly putting higher weight on inflation than on the output gap. In fact, the behavior of these subjects meets a stability criterion. The subjects smooth the interest rate as the theoretical literature suggests they should in order to enhance stability of the uncertain system they face. Our study is the first to use Taylor-type rules as a framework to identify inflation weighting, stability, and interest-rate smoothing as behavioral outcomes when subjects try to achieve an inflation target.     

Ignorance Is Bliss as Trade Policy

Consider domestic consumers that purchase from foreign firms. A presumption would be that consumers prefer being informed when quality is uncertain and exogenous. However, in a multifirm framework based on previous models, consumers can be worse off if they are informed of the quality. Further, in the Salop-circle model, consumers may prefer not learning even though expected high-quality output is greater with learning. Moreover, the possibility that consumers prefer uncertainty increases with the probability that products are of low quality. Essentially, the benefit of screening quality (better matching) can be less than its cost (higher prices from market segmentation).     

MISPERCEPTIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN A NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL

This paper studies the consequences for the monetary policy design of information shortages on the part of the private sector. We model these shortages as exogenous shocks to expected income, which through an IS curve, disturb aggregate demand. We constrain policymakers to follow Taylor‐like rules but allow them to optimise coefficients: we find that the presence of misperceptions makes the optimised Taylor rule respond more aggressively to inflation and the output gap. We also find that if the policymaker is uncertain about misperceptions, then it is less costly to assume they are pervasive when they are not than the reverse. In other words, setting policy on the basis that the private sector is subject to misperceptions is a ‘robust’ policy.