Incorporating morale into a classical agency model: implications for incentives, effort, and organization

This paper incorporates morale into a standard principal-agent model. When morale is observable, the worker’s effort level, the optimal piece rate, and the firm’s expected profits are all generally increasing in the worker’s level of morale. Furthermore, under reasonable conditions, higher-morale individuals are more responsive to incentives. Finally, when considering morale interdependence, conditions are derived which determine optimal organization strategies in terms of pooling or separating workers, and corresponding staffing policies are discussed.      

On the value of information in the presence of moral hazard

This paper shows that the marginal value of a “small amount of non-output information” is generally non-positive in the context of the standard principal-agent model involving moral hazard, which suggests a non-concavity in the value of information. However, when both the principal and the agent are risk neutral, even a small amount of non-output information may exhibit a positive incremental value in presence of a liability constraint.      

智能Agent技术在教师远程教育中的应用

随着智能技术在远程教育中的应用,教师教育的关注点由教学方法的学习向自主的远程学习发展。在此背景下,通过智能Agent技术应用,解决教师个性化学习的需求,探索教师远程教育新模式。     

作业预算对企业内部契约的改进研究

在委托代理理论下,预算管理是实现企业外部契约的内部契约保障机制,可以较好地协调各级委托人与代理人之间的利益冲突。但传统的预算管理模式重点研究所有者对高层管理人员的激励与约束经济权衡,忽视了企业治理结构下权力的分层授权控制理论,造成了高层管理人员对中低层管理人员及操作人员控制与考核的理论与实务缺失。本文认为,采用作业预算可以填补传统预算管理存在的空白,对企业的内部契约进行有效改进,设计出可靠的业绩合同和业绩评价体系,能降低契约中的代理成本和博弈成本。     

从经济学角度透视CPA诚信危机

近几年,注册会计师(CPA)行业造假事件层出不穷,公众对于CPA出具的审计报告是否具有可信性已产生极大的怀疑。针对CPA诚信危机这一现象本文从经济学角度加以剖析。     

Posterior predictive p-values for classical null hypotheses

We show that for the purpose of testing a classical null hypothesis the posterior predictive check of Rubin (1984) may be inadequate. This inadequacy is caused by the estimation of the nuisance parameters under the null hypothesis. We show that this problem can be solved if the parameters are estimated under the encompassing model.     

基于AGENT的装备供应链仿真模型设计与实现

通过计算机对装备供应链系统进行仿真,可以获得许多宝贵的数据,减少相应的风险,增强决策的科学性,提高战时装备供应保障的科学化、现代化水平。文章构建了基于Agent的装备供应链仿真模型,利用Swarm仿真平台描述了Agent仿真模型,并运用Java语言,实现了Swarm平台下的Agent的交互。     

基于贝叶斯网络方法的客户忠诚研究

提高客户忠诚是企业的核心原则。在与传统的数据挖掘及决策分析方法比较的基础上,提出了用贝叶斯网络方法来对客户忠诚进行研究。用贝叶斯网络方法对客户数据进行分析,确定影响客户忠诚的各因素之间的贝叶斯网络结构,得出这些因素之间的相互决定关系,为采取有效措施提高客户忠诚提供了理论依据。     

The first-order approach when the cost of effort is money

We provide sufficient conditions for the first-order approach in the principal-agent problem when the agent’s utility has the nonseparable form u(y−c(a))$u(y-c\left(a\right))$ where y$y$ is the contractual payoff and c(a)$c\left(a\right)$ is the money cost of effort. We first consider a decision-maker facing prospects which cost c(a)$c\left(a\right)$ and with distributions of returns y$y$ that depend on a$a$. The decision problem is shown to be concave if the primitive of the cdf of returns is jointly convex in a$a$ and y$y$, a condition we call Concavity of the Cumulative Quantile (CCQ) and which is satisfied by many common distributions. Next we apply CCQ to the distribution of outcomes (or their likelihood-ratio transforms) in the principal-agent problem and derive restrictions on the utility function that validate the first-order approach. We also discuss another condition, log-convexity of the distribution, and show that it allows binding limited liability constraints, which CCQ does not.     

Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.     

The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners

We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in the analysis here are Bayesian learners. We are interested in the extent to which expectational stability remains the key concept in the Bayesian environment. We isolate conditions under which versions of expectational stability conditions govern the stability of these systems just as in the standard case of recursive learning. We conclude that Bayesian learning schemes, while they are more sophisticated, do not alter the essential expectational stability findings in the literature.     

基于Agent的物流信息平台模型研究

本文研究了Agent技术概念及其特征，将Agent技术应用于物流信息平台模型的构建中。并对基于Agent技术的物流信息平台模型的框架结构、功能模块等问题进行了分析。     

基于Agent-人元模型的铁路货运站布局调整方法

为了解决我国铁路货运站数量过多、布局过密、难以产生规模效应等问题,借鉴经典的糖域(Sugarscape)模型,将Agent的智能性和人元模型中主客观属性综合考虑的特性相结合,建立了基于Agent-人元模型的铁路货运站布局模型。该模型将货主视为自主Agent,将货运站作为资源,Agent在寻求资源的过程中能量会发生变化,并根据自己的能量多少来引起货运站价值的变化。按照模型中设定的规则,对该模型进行了仿真分析,得到了一定范围内的货运站布局方案。从仿真结果可以看出,该模型将所研究的车站划分成保留站、待定站和取消站三类,这对于货运站布局优化以及战略装车点的设置具有指导性意义。