奇异谱分析-支持向量回归机耦合模型在月降水量预测中的应用研究

以辽宁省某气象站为研究对象,其月降水量的数据的处理利用奇异谱分析,并以此提取多个子序列,然后针对不同子序列采用支持向量回归机构建耦合预测模型SSA-SVR,对模型输出结果求和即为预测结果;最后采用耦合模型SSA-SVR、小波分析预测模型WA-SVR、支持回归机模型SVR对不同步长的月降雨量进行预测。研究表明:所构建的SSA-SVR耦合模型其预测结果具有较高的精度和准确性,能较好地揭示出研究区域的月降水量变化特征,预测结果与实测值具有保持高度的一致性。     

基于数据挖掘算法的变压器热点温度时序预测方法

为了解决油浸式电力变压器热点温度预测方法缺乏对短期热点温度走势的预测,无法满足动态增容决策要求的问题,以SFPSZ-180000/220型变压器为研究对象,首先,研究对比发现变压器的热点温度与负载率相关性最大,在此基础上,建立了基于支持向量回归的局部地区负荷预测模型,为变压器热点温度预测提供数据;其次,提出了基于数据挖掘算法的变压器热点温度时序预测方法,并在此基础上分别建立了支持向量回归、BP神经网络、决策树3种数据挖掘预测模型;最后,对一般输入-输出的建模方法的预测结果与基于时间延迟方法的预测结果,以及不同时间延迟下3种数据挖掘模型的预测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,有外在输入的支持向量回归预测模型结果比BP神经网络和决策树吻合度更高,并且时间延时更小,预测结果精确度更高。有外在输入的支持向量回归预测模型在很大程度上提高了变压器热点温度预测精度,其预测结果可为变压器的动态增容决策提供有效参考。     

遗传算法优化的小波神经网络在短期电力负荷预测中的应用

本文利用遗产算法的全局优化搜索能力来优化了小波神经网络,建立了基于遗产算法的小波神经网络短期电力负荷预测模型,克服了BP神经网络自身算法的缺陷,得到了更高的学习精度和更快的收敛速度,经实例也验证了该模型能有效地提高预测精度,减小负荷预测误差,避免了BP神经网络的固有缺陷.     

灰色神经网络模型应用于证券短期预测研究

证券市场中存在大量的非线性及混沌现象使得许多基于证券投资理论建议的各种线性模型在对其发展进行预测时往往得不到很好的结果。利用两种非线性预测模型并充分考虑各技术指标之间的序列相关性,在灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的基础上提出了组合灰色神经网络预测模型。通过对近期深证成指及首钢股份进行短期预测和检验,结果表明了该方法具有很高的精确度及广泛的应用前景。     

全球稀土消费预测模型研究

为了准确把握全球稀土消费变化,本文在分析单整自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型与非线性灰色伯努利(NGBM)模型特点的基础上,采用粒子群优化算法(PSO)对非线性灰色伯努利模型的参数进行了优选,建立了ARIMA耦合PSO-NGBM的全球稀土消费的时间序列预测模型。该模型将全球稀土消费时间序列的数据结构分解为线性自相关主体和非线性残差两部分,首先用ARIMA模型预测序列的线性主体,然后用PSO-NGBM模型对其非线性残差进行估计,最终合成为整个序列的预测结果。预测结果表明,耦合模型的预测准确率显著高于单一的ARIMA模型的预测准确率,从而证实了耦合模型用于全球稀土消费预测的有效性。     

沁水县水库洪水水位及流量智能化预测研究

水库洪水预测对于水利工程的运行和管理至关重要。为精确预测洪水水位流量,研究以沁水县张峰水库为例,提出了一种基于特征提取的混合小波神经网络(WNN)方法来预测水库流量。通过小波变换处理,特征提取方法来确定人工神经网络的输入数。分析了水库洪水水位及流量变化规律,建立智能化预测模型并进行流量预测分析。研究结果表明：模型相关性值达到了0.99738,预测效果十分出色。研究发现特别在长期预测方面,提出的特征提取模型的表现优于同类模型。     

一种短期风电场输出功率概率预测方法

正为了提高风电场功率预测的精度,本文首先建立了稀疏贝叶斯组合核函数学习模型,其中核函数采用高斯核函数和拉普拉斯核函数的组合核函数,用粒子群优化算法(PSO)来确定组合核函数的核参数。为了进一步提高风电功率的预测精度,将原始风电场的功率利用小波变换分解成趋势分量和扰动分量,分别对低频趋势分量和高频扰动分量进行预测,然后将预测的信号进行重构,建立了小波-稀疏贝叶斯组合核函数学     

物流需求多样性下的区域物流需求预测研究

在区域物流需求多样性的影响下,对于区域物流需求量的影响因素众多,传统的预测方法和模型对于不同产业结构的区域物流需求预测效果有限。对区域物流需求多样性的特征进行了分析,并在此基础上建立了多产业结构下的SVR预测模型,并利用四川省2000年至2010年实际数据对模型进行了预测和研究,预测的结果表明基于区域物流多样性的预测模型比之不考虑区域物流需求差别的预测更为准确。     

差分自回归移动平均模型在企业物资采购中的应用

在分析企业采购数据特点的基础上,提出一种基于差分自回归移动平均模型的多模型预测方法。利用了数据的季节特性而不是剔除季节性数据的影响,使得物资的季节性需求得到更好的预测。该方法首先以历史的同比数据作为序列,建立纵向预测模型,再以环比数据作为序列建立横向预测模型,最后通过横纵向预测结果的加权平均实现数据的最终预测。通过近年来采购数据的预测和真值对比分析,验证了该方法的有效性,也为具有此类特征的数据预测提供了新的分析计算方法,可以用于各行业的预测分析。     

基于SARIMA-SVR组合模型的 空气质量指数预测

空气质量指数(AQI)在波动中既具有整体的时间序列线性特征和明显的季节性波动周期,又具有多种因素影响的不确定性,为了提高AQI的预测精度,基于Ri386 3.3.3和Matlab R2014a两种编程软件,提出了一种同时具有线性和非线性的复合特征的时间序列预测模型——SARIMA-SVR组合模型。以太原市2014年1月—2019年7月的AQI月均值数据为基础,利用SARIMA时间序列模型进行线性预测,利用SVR模型对残差进行非线性预测,加和得到组合预测模型的预测结果,分析比较SARIMA,SVR和SARIMA-SVR这3种模型的预测结果和平均绝对百分比误差。结果表明,组合预测模型发挥了2种模型各自的优势,相较于单一预测模型的预测结果而言,其预测精度更高,稳定性更好。通过此模型得到的空气质量预测结果不仅可为人们的日常生活提供指导,而且可为大气污染的防治工作提供科学依据和借鉴意义。     

Individualism–collectivism as predictors of BPO employee attitudes toward union membership in India

Drawing on data from a survey of 342 employees from three BPO organizations in Mumbai (India), this study examined whether cultural variables of individual cultural orientation and organizational culture, and their interaction were predictive of employees’ attitudes toward union membership in BPO organizations in India where unionization has hitherto not taken place. Using regression analysis, the researcher found that over and above the effects of demographic and job-related variable, and work stress and job satisfaction, horizontal individualism could predict union attitudes significantly and negatively whereas vertical individualism and collectivism could predict the attitudes significantly and positively. Similarly, organizational collectivism could predict employees’ attitudes toward union membership significantly and negatively. Using the univariate analysis of variance, the researcher found that the contrast between personal value and organizational culture of an individualist working in a collectivistic organizational culture or collectivist working in an individualistic culture are found to have stronger influence on union attitudes compared to the congruence of an individualist working in an individualistic culture or collectivist working in a collectivistic culture. The results and implications of findings are discussed in the paper with reference to the literature on role of cultural and attitudinal variables in relation to organizational outcomes like union membership.

Investigating the intertwining impact of wholesale access pricing and the commitment to net neutrality principle on European next-generation access networks private investment plans: An options-game application for capturing market players' competitive interactions

Whilst the deployment of next generation access networks (NGANs) is undoubtedly beneficial to the economy, new legal developments in the United States (US) regarding the issue of net neutrality (NN) pose a new challenge not only to policy makers but to telecommunication providers as well, that could justify a fresh approach when assessing NGANs investments. In particular, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) subverted extant NN rules in the US and if the European Union (EU) decides to follow a similar deregulatory path in the future it could change the way telecommunications providers on both sides of the Atlantic lay down their optical-fibre network infrastructure investment plans. For instance, if traffic prioritization is allowed then diversification of revenue sources can be achieved by charging customers for privileged data delivery to their premises. Currently, NGANs roll-out throughout EU is an ongoing process in a setting whereby access regulation in the form of network element unbundling is already imposed. As a result, these legal developments form a new context within which it makes sense to assess the role of NGANs wholesale access pricing in tandem with the degree of commitment to NN rules so as to i) determine their combinatorial impact on private telecommunications operators' financial figures and ii) capture their competitive interactions. Towards this end, an important aspect of particular value to market players (i.e. incumbents and competitive providers – CPs), and policy makers (i.e. National Regulatory Authorities – NRAs) that this article aims to examine is how to employ the option-game (OG) analysis, that reflects the intersection of game theory (GT) and real options (ROs), to model the competitive interactions between participants in a particular competition game set-up by means of deriving possible Nash-equilibrium (NE) outcomes within a regulatory setting part of which is the commitment or non-commitment to the NN principle. This, hybrid, evaluation tool is applied on top of a conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) techno-economic analysis assessment of an NGAN investment opportunity.     

红外监测三坐标平移动物实验台的研制

演化硬件研究将进化思想应用于电子系统内部结构的设计和调整,以实现硬件电路的自组织、自适应和自修复,从而提高系统的可靠性。介绍了演化硬件的概念、基本原理和实现方法,对国内外研究动态及已取得的成果进行了总结,并指出了目前研究存在的主要问题。     

Why Are Quit Rates Lower Among Defense Contractors?

This paper presents empirical evidence of lower quit rates at small manufacturers with defense contracts and examines whether this is associated with differences in their human resource policies and organizational practices and strategies. We take advantage of an original data set to compare labor quits, workforce skills, and occupational structure between defense‐contracting and noncontracting small manufacturers in eastern Pennsylvania. We find that the remarkably large defense contractor advantage in quit rates—7 percentage points—is almost totally explained by differences in skills, operational strategies, and workforce management and training practices, suggesting a mediation effect through these HR practices. Defense‐contracting status emerges as an important overlooked variable in HRM studies.     

工程纠纷ADR解决方式的研究

传统的诉讼解决纠纷机制由于费用高、时间长受到愈来愈多的批评和指责,而替代性纠纷解决机制（ADR）因其灵活、高效、友善引起关注,迅速在各行各业广泛使用。ADR的实质是一程序群,主要类型包括有协商、调解、调停、裁决、小型审理和租借法官等。通过国际工程中主要使用的ADR程序,对ADR机制的几种办法与诉讼进行比较,分析了ADR机制的关键成功因素,并对我国工程领域实施ADR机制提出了建议。     

先进制造技术的系统模式

概述了先进制造技术含义的演进 ,当前国内外各种先进的生产组织观念、生产管理模式、生产制造策略 (统称为先进制造系统技术 )的特点和应用状况。     

Race to the top: Does competition in the DSL market matter for fibre penetration?

High speed broadband creates potential productivity gains and has a positive impact on economic growth. Achieving Europe's broadband access objectives will require large scale investment in next generation broadband networks, and it is imperative that an appropriate investment climate is created to encourage fibre network rollout. This study considers whether and how competition in the DSL market affects the incentives of operators to invest in the deployment of high-end fibre optic networks. Most earlier research on the drivers of investment in broadband technology has focused on the effect of mandatory access policies, such as local loop unbundling, or competing infrastructures. We posit that competition in the DSL sector may also influence fibre penetration, possibly to a considerable extent. We find that the relationship between service-based competition and fibre penetration is non-linear: a lack of or severe DSL competition is correlated with a negative effect on fibre penetration, but if a moderate degree of competition is already present in the market, more service-based competition may positively influence fibre penetration. The scale of these effects however varies with the openness of the DSL market: operators' incentives to invest in fibre appear to be more sensitive to changes in DSL competition if there is extensive local loop unbundling.     

Entrepreneurial team's risk-based decision-making: A dynamic game analysis

It is well-known that some cognitive factors such as opportunity perception and risk perception influence entrepreneurial risk-based decision-making (RBDM). This paper proposes some rules of entrepreneur's risk decision-learning to address this RBDM taking cognitive factors into consideration. The learning mechanisms of entrepreneurial team's RBDM is derived based on entrepreneur's perception evolution. The paper employs a system dynamics model to analyze the entrepreneurial team's risk decision-learning. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the entrepreneurial RBDM process with cognitive factors.     

A knowledge-enabled procedure for customer relationship management

The value of knowledge management and customer relationship management is well recognized by many leading companies. This study presents a proposed model of Knowledge-enabled Customer Relationship Management and demonstrates the way in which the presented model can facilitate the identification of important factors that have key impacts on business performance in particular settings. The results show that employees in the steel industry indicate that to provide product and service information for customers and to share internally the best practice information can have benefits for hard measures such as market share, repeat purchases, and customer retention and for soft measures such as customer satisfaction, market leadership and customer loyalty. Employees in the textile industry report that to provide customer complaint information of customers and to share internally the best practice information can have benefits for hard measures such as customer retention, cost savings, and market share and for soft measures such as customer satisfaction, market leadership, customer loyalty, and customer and employee productivity.     

四氯合锰(Ⅱ)酸二烷基铵及其二元体系贮热性能的研究

利用差式扫描量热法(DSC)系统研究了四氯合锰(Ⅱ)酸二烷基铵及其二元体系的各种贮热性能。研究结果表明,四氯合锰(Ⅱ)酸二烷基铵及其二元体系具有良好的贮热性能,是一类有技术和经济潜力的新型清洁能源。