Non-tariff measures: What's tariffs got to do with it?

After successive rounds of tariff reductions by GATT/WTO members, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have increasingly become the focal point of multilateral trade negotiations. It remains an open question whether the liberalization in tariff rates has subsequently been weakened or even erased by increases in NTMs. Using a product-level global panel of WTO members over the period 1996–2019, this paper systematically examines the empirical link between various tariff measures and the imposition of NTMs. I find that bound or applied tariff reductions do not correlate much on their own with NTM incidence. The relevant trade policy margin for detecting a tariff–NTM nexus is instead tariff overhangs, the difference between WTO members' bound and applied tariff rates. Countries impose more NTMs when their sectoral applied tariffs are close to their respective bound rates, indicating that small tariff overhangs signal limited legal trade policy flexibility.     

Union decline in Britain: does gender have anything to do with it?

The paper examines if workplace gender diversity offers some explanation for the decline of unions in Britain. Using the WERS2004 linked employer–employee data and alternative econometric estimators it reports an inverse relationship between workplace union density and gender diversity. Gender and ownership status based sub‐group analyses suggest the inverse relationship to be stronger for male union members and those in the private sector. Gender group size‐based analysis reveals a positive link between workplace union density and gender diversity in workplaces with a female majority. The findings in this paper may mean that unions may need to embrace the changing workplace demography genuinely to improve their fate.     

Data,information and knowledge: have we got it right?

Economists make the unarticulated assumption that information is something that stands apart from and is independent of the processor of information and its internal characteristics. We argue that they need to revisit the distinctions they have drawn between data, information, and knowledge. Some associate information with data, and others associate information with knowledge. But since none of them readily conflates data with knowledge, this suggests too loose a conceptualisation of the term information. We argue that the difference between data, information, and knowledge is in fact crucial. Information theory and the physics of information provide us with useful insights with which to build an economics of information appropriate to the needs of the emerging information economy.JEL Classification: A12, D20, D80, M21Correspondence to: Agustí CanalsA. Canals, Av. Tibidabo, 39-43. 08035 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain     

How do entrepreneurs know what to do? learning and organizing in new ventures

Acquiring the knowledge they need to organize new businesses is a life-long learning process for nascent entrepreneurs, both before and during the organizing process. We argue that creating viable and profitable ventures depends not only on the habits, heuristics, and routines that nascent entrepreneurs have acquired from family, schools, and work careers prior to the startup stage, but also on what they can learn by doing, borrowing, and experimenting during the startup process. Entrepreneurs without effective habits or heuristics, or who have acquired less knowledge or fewer routines, may not be able to learn fast enough from feedback during the startup process to avoid being selected out. We conclude the paper by offering critical questions and a research agenda for learning and organizing in new ventures.     

Returns to individual traders in agricultural futures markets: skill or luck?

Using individual trader data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Large Trader Reporting System (LTRS) for the period January 2000 to September 2009, this article investigates whether noncommercial traders in the corn, live cattle and coffee futures markets persist in making profits. Two out-of-sample measures of skill – a winner and a loser ranking test and a top and a bottom decile test – are used to analyse the ability of traders to consistently perform well at monthly, quarterly and annual time horizons. The findings identify significant persistence in rankings – traders in the top half of the profit distribution in a time period tend to stay in the top half in the next period. Differences in magnitude of profitability between the top and bottom deciles also provide support that persistent skill exists among the top 10% of traders. Detailed examination of annual rankings for those traders who were most continuously in the markets further reveals persistence in profits for a smaller subset of traders, as well as an indication of persistence in the face of losses.     

Impact of mood and gender on individual investors’ reactions to retractions and corrections of earnings forecasts

Whilst individual investors’ reactions to earnings forecasts have been widely documented, the impact that retractions and/or corrections have on investors’ decisions has received little attention. Further, the role that either/both mood and gender of investors play has not been investigated within this context. This is especially important as failure by individual investors to adjust correctly to retractions/corrections of earnings may have adverse investment outcomes. Our study thus investigates whether mood and gender differences influence the way in which individual investors react to retractions and corrections of management earnings forecasts. In this paper, we show that individual investors do not adjust correctly to retractions and corrections of previously disclosed information. We also find that both mood and gender play a significant role in individual investors’ reactions to such announcements. Awareness of the differences in investors’ reactions to retractions and corrections of earnings according to their mood and/or gender can provide further insights on whether their investment decisions are rational and are hence consistent with traditional models of assumed rational investment behaviour.     

Who to punish? Individual decisions and majority rule in mitigating the free rider problem

We study a voluntary contributions mechanism in which punishment may be allowed, depending on subjects’ voted rules. We found that out of 160 group votes, even when groups had no prior experience with unrestricted punishment, no group ever voted to allow unrestricted punishment and no group ever allowed punishment of high contributors. Over a series of votes and periods of learning we found a distinct reluctance to allow any punishment at the beginning, with a gradual but clear evolution toward allowing punishment of low contributors. And groups allowing punishment of only low contributors achieved levels of cooperation and efficiency that are among the highest in the literature on social dilemmas.     

Firms’ investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty

We investigate the effect of demand and price uncertainty on firms’ planned and realized investment from a panel of manufacturing firms. Uncertainty measures are derived from firms’ own expectations about demand and prices and firm's sales. We find that demand uncertainty at the time of planning depresses planned and subsequent realized investment. Firms do not revise their plans due to demand uncertainty at the time of spending, suggesting that reducing demand uncertainty will only have lagged effects on investment. We do not find any effect of price uncertainty. Our results are consistent with the behaviour of monopolistic firms with irreversible capital.     

Absorptive capacity and innovation: when is it better to cooperate?

Cooperation can benefit and hurt firms at the same time. An important question then is: when is it better to cooperate? And, once the decision to cooperate is made, how can an appropriate partner be selected? In this paper we present a model of inter-firm cooperation driven by cognitive distance, appropriability conditions and external knowledge. Absorptive capacity of firms develops as an outcome of the interaction between absorptive R&D and cognitive distance from voluntary and involuntary knowledge spillovers. Thus, we offer a revision of the original model by Cohen and Levinthal (Econ J 99(397):569–596, 1989), accounting for recent empirical findings and explicitly modeling absorptive capacity within the framework of interactive learning. We apply that to the analysis of firms’ cooperation and R&D investment preferences. The results show that cognitive distance and appropriability conditions between a firm and its cooperation partner have an ambiguous effect on the profit generated by the firm. Thus, a firm chooses to cooperate and selects a partner conditional on the investments in absorptive capacity it is willing to make to solve the understandability/novelty trade-off.     

What motivates bandwagon voting behavior: Altruism or a desire to win?

This paper surveys the literature on psychological and strategic mental processes of bandwagon behavior, discusses the literature of bandwagon behavior in the context of the two different types, bandwagon vote choices and bandwagon abstention effects, and examines the rationality of other-regarding bandwagon vote choices. Key experimental results are reported to investigate the extent that bandwagon behavior can be explained by other-regarding preferences in contrast to a psychological desire to simply support a winner. We find support for purely psychological non-other-regarding bandwagon behavior but primarily when subjects have information about the distribution of voter choices in previous elections but individual choices are private. Interestingly, when voting is public this type of bandwagon behavior disappears and bandwagon behavior that could be other-regrading is much higher. Given that observability increases other-regarding behavior in other contexts, our results suggest that some of the observed bandwagon behavior may be explained by other-regarding preferences as well.     

Neighbors and friends: How do European political parties respond to globalization?

This paper explores the relationship between globalization and party positions accounting for potential differences between left- and right-wing parties. The analysis is based on a panel model of 36 political parties in 18 Western European countries between 1970 and 2015. We find that right-wing parties move leftward in response to globalization, while left-wing parties do not alter their position. Additionally, we find that ideological party positions are affected by foreign parties’ positions of the same ideological bloc. These findings indicate that there is a convergence towards the left of the political spectrum due to right-wing party moderation.     

Does it really pay to do better? Exploring the financial effects of changes in CSR ratings

Previous literature on the link between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and financial performance has focused mainly on the financial implications of a firm’s level of CSR without considering the potential effects on financial performance of variations in CSR rating. We try to fill this gap by studying whether variations in a firm’s CSR rating affect systematic risk, firm value, and portfolio performance. First, our results show that an increase in firms’ CSR efforts, as reflected by an increase in their CSR ratings, significantly reduces systematic risk. Second, a positive variation in CSR ratings significantly improves firm value. Finally, from a portfolio perspective, a strategy that consists of buying stocks that have experienced a CSR ratings increase and selling stocks that have experienced a CSR ratings decrease (or remain stable) leads to lower financial performance. Taken together, our findings provide new evidence and financial implications for firms and portfolio managers.     

UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.     

The daughter effect: do CEOs with daughters hire more women to their board?

Using a sample of S&P 100 firms, we find that CEOs with a daughter are more likely to hire new women to their board of directors than CEOs without a daughter. Our results provide additional evidence that parents’ attitudes and actions are affected by the gender of their children and that the effect is strong enough to influence important decisions at large corporations.     

Mumbling with great incoherence: Was it really so difficult to understand Alan Greenspan?

We show how most Humphrey-Hawkins testimonies by Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan were difficult to follow, implying the general public needs information through different, more accessible communications. Still, it is not obvious that Greenspan was increasingly ‘mumbling with great incoherence’.     

What's in a grade? Grading policies and practices in principles of economics

This study created an experimental design with which students can empirically assess their risk behavior with respect to exam grades within an expected utility framework. Specifically, the authors analyzed students’ risk preferences associated with taking exams and earning a “risky” unknown grade versus not taking exams and instead obtaining a “sure” grade. Students have grade-choice decisions in nonhypothetical situations that impact their actual exam grades. Estimates indicate that the more risk-averse a student is, the more willing he or she is to accept a lower certain grade and not take an exam than to run the risk of actually taking it. We believe that this experimental setup and its binding results make it an easy but effective way of teaching the obtuse concept of risk aversion.     

Technological Backwardness in Agriculture: Is it Due to Lack of R&D,Human Capital,and Openness to International Trade?

This paper investigates the relationship between the agricultural technological level and R&D expenditures, human capital, and openness to international trade using cross-country information for a sample of 104 countries and various subsamples over the period 1961–91. The unobservable technological level is modeled as a dynamic process in the context of a general translog production function. The results suggest that the technological gap between developed and less developed countries in agriculture increased considerably over this period of time. Overall, the technological levels are directly related to R&D expenditures, human capital, and openness, although this relationship is not robust across different groups of countries.