美国航天业进入结构调整期 对华合作有望恢复——从近期美国航天业发展新动态看中美航天合作走向

美国航天业新闻不断:一方面地缘政治和气候变化等原因对其发展构成威胁,另一方面私营航天企业异军突起、成绩显著。同时,美国不断流露出与我国恢复航天合作的积极信号。我方该如何看待美国航天发展的新动向?中关航天合作又将何去何从?本文根据美国航天业出现的新情况,分析美国航天业发展的趋势及中美航天合作走向。     

从美国能源部预算分析美国能源战略

通过对美国能源部(DOE)公布的国会批准的2000-2005财年预算进行统计分析,进而观察美国近6年来能源部投资变化情况及战略重点领域,以期对我国能源发展及战略制定提供一定的借鉴作用。     

直接投资引致的美中贸易逆差:经验研究

运用基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验模型,在商品分类层面研究关中贸易逆差与关国对华直接投资的内在联系。结果显示：从长期和短期来看,中国制成品的出口都是关中贸易逆差的“因”,中国制成品的出口与关国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,因此关国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美中贸易逆差就越大;美中贸易逆差是结构性的,它不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K.

ABSTRACT

Previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the U.S. and U.K. assumed the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we add to the literature on the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon by considering the trade balance of 68 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects of the real dollar-pound rate in almost all industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects were translated into significant long-run asymmetric effects in 25 industries. Indeed, the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis was supported in 18 industries.     

美元汇率长期波动动因探析

基于国际金融危机背景来研究美元价值与美国国债、美国股指、经常项目逆差以及大宗商品价格之间的相关性具有现实意义。通过选取美国国债、联邦基金利率、标准普尔指数、经常项目逆差以及国际大宗商品价格指数,运用Johansen协整检验、VEC模型、脉冲响应模型及Granger因果检验等计量方法进行考察后发现,美国国债的泛滥与美元贬值没有直接的因果关系;美元价值的波动与美国经济基本面(包括金融环境)的状况存在显著的长期相关性;美元指数的走势与国际金融市场中石油、黄金等大宗商品价格指数的走势相关,且后者对美元变动具有一定程度的短期预测效应。     

美国应对全球气候变化的科技计划

2002年2月，美国总统布什改组了美国应对全球气候变化的领导机构，以协调和指导美国应对全球气候变化的科技活动。在新的领导体制下，美国气候变化科学研究和与气候相关的技术开发项目集成到了一个前所未有的程度，形成了相互关联的两大科技计划，即气候变化科学计划（CCSP）和气候变化技术计划（CCTP），并设立了相应的气候变化科技计划管理机构。 本文对上述两大计划，以及美国未来应对全球气候变化、减少温室气体排放的近期和中长期技术选择进行了调研，供参考。     

美国材料基因组倡议实践简述

"材料基因组倡议"是由美国前总统奥巴马宣布启动的跨部门研发倡议,旨在开创政策、资源和科研基础设施的新时代,将先进材料的发现、开发、制造和使用所需周期缩短一半,并大幅降低新材料研发成本。本文简述了该倡议的具体内容及其实践,包括由国家科学技术委员会牵头和多个联邦部门参与的管理机制、四大战略目标、九个关键领域、二十二项政策措施、各部门资助的主要研发计划、典型成果以及特朗普政府相关动向等,并对该倡议的成效进行简要评述。     

美国奶牛业的发展经验及其启示

奶牛饲养业是现代国家农业的核心行业。大部分发达国家乳业产值一般都占畜牧业总产值的1/3以上,所以,如何又好又快地发展我国奶牛业对于我国经济发展有着重要意义。借鉴美国奶牛业发展的成功经验,利用我国已经具备的加速奶牛业发展的条件,提出一些能促进我国奶牛业快速发展的建议。     

美国政府科技经费监督与绩效评价

美国的科研经费同其他类别的联邦经费一样,由经法律授权的机构按照统一的原则规定、审核标准和操作程序进行监督和评估。如何保证联邦经费的使用效率和效果,保护纳税人的利益,是美国政府一直在努力探索的问题。本文重点研究美政府实施经费监督和对联邦机构及联邦计划进行绩效评价的机制和方法,并以美国立卫生研究院项目监管实践为例做具体分析,旨在为我国经费监管和机构及项目绩效评价提供参考依据。     

美国医疗保健模式及其改革

由于倡导自由市场经济的文化和社会背景,美国是唯一没有实行全国统一的医疗保障制度的发达国家。本文对美国医疗保险制度、美国医院的管理运行机制、美国医疗保险付费方式的沿革进行了系统的介绍,并梳理了美国医疗保健管理模式的特点与问题,结合奥巴马政府医疗保健改革要点,对我国医疗保健体系改革提出了几点建议。     

Co-movement of the Chinese and U.S. aggregate stock returns

This article studies the co-movement of the levels, as well as of the volatilities, of the Chinese and U.S. aggregate stock returns in 1995–2014, focusing on the impact of the liberalization of Chinese stock market from 2005. The volatilities of the two returns appear to have started to co-move in 2006. To understand the co-movement, we use the GARCH BEKK method. The result suggests that before 2006, the evolution of the U.S. returns had a tendency to affect the Chinese returns in level and volatility. However, after 2006, the two returns affected each other in a more complex way.     

A vertical social accounting matrix of the U.S. economy

Abstract

This article presents an adaptation of the square social accounting matrix used in economic planning and programming to the rectangular or vertical transaction matrix used in post Keynesian monetary economics. The objective is to obtain a simple and intuitive framework to organize macroeconomic data in terms of the main institutional sectors of the economy, showing how production, distribution, demand, and financing are inter-related. The article presents the social accounting matrix of the U.S. economy as an example and use it to analyze the trends in net lending and household net income since 1960.     

美国地球观测系统能力及未来发展重点

地球观测,即准确详尽地获取地球系统中物理、化学和生物各类信息,是人类应对环境和资源压力,保护民众生命和财产安全,促进社会经济发展的重要保障。2010年6月美国发布并实施国家空间政策,强调将加大地球环境和气候空间观测系统建设力度;同年9月,白宫科学和技术政策办公室制定了地球观测战略规划。本文归纳了当前新形势对地球观测的新要求,总结了美国地球观测能南现状,指明了其未来短期内系统和能力建设重点。     

美国生物能源技术研发的五年计划及管理措施

2013年5月,美国生物能源技术办公室(BETO)公布了生物能源技术研发的《五年计划草案》(MYPP)。该草案阐明了BETO的结构与重点研究领域,确定了该办公室未来5年中的研究、开发、示范和部署(RDDD)活动。RDDD活动的主要目标是实现到2022年达到年产360亿加仑可再生交通燃料,从而降低美国对化石燃料的依赖,减少运输行业温室气体(GHG)的排放;主要任务是通过拟行的研究、开发、示范和部署活动,开发可再生生物质资源,并将之转变成商业上可行的高性能生物燃料、生物制品和生物电力。分析美国发展生物能源技术研发的框架、主要内容和管理措施,以期为我国相关部门制定生物能源发展政策提供参考和借鉴。     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks

This paper provides new evidence on asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and the Australian economies by using the Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model, central bank interest rates, lending and deposit interest rates from selected banks, spanning the period 2000–2013. The results provide evidence that corroborates the asymmetric pass-through market predictions. Robustness tests are also performed by splitting the sample period into that prior to and after the recent financial crisis. The new findings document that the asymmetric character of pass-through remains active only in the case of Australia.     

美国扶持中小企业的经验对我国非公有制经济发展的启示

美国是小企业数量最多和高科技小企业最发达的国家。中小企业在美国经济特别是以信息网络技术为主的知识经济的发展中,起着举足轻重的作用,被称为“美国经济的基石”。我国起步不久、蓬勃发展中的非公有制企业与美国的小企业类似,本文从美国政府成功扶持中小企业发展的角度出发,归纳其发展的成功经验,探讨我国市场经济转型时期发展非公有制经济的途径。     

美国生物医学研究概况

美国国立卫生研究院（NIH）专司是美国唯一一家国家级公立生物医学研究机构,负责生物医学领域的研究和管理。在关联邦机构中,NIH掌管的研发经费仅次于国防部。本文对NIH的科研投入情况、资助计划和发展方向进行介绍和分析,旨在从宏观上把握美国生物医学的总体发展水平和重点方向。     

新《美国国家空间政策》解读

2010年美国奥巴马政府颁布实施了新国家空间政策,该政策阐述了美国最新太空发展战略,确定了新的历史条件和国际环境下新的使命和任务,以及确保其顺利实现的重要举措和指导方针。本文从政策制定背景、目标、重要任务及指导原则、特点等方面对其进行了解读,并提出应对建议,以促进我国空间事业的继续快速发展,维护国家战略安全和核心利益。     

美国国立科研机构资源配置机制及其启示

美国国立科研机构主要是由政府出资设立的科研机构,包括国有国营和国有民营两种。美国国立科研机构是政府研发经费配置的重要载体,得到政府稳定的机构性经费支持,还得到科技计划的经费支持。我国应充分借鉴美国国立科研机构的运作及经费配置方式,在建立较为完善的国立科研机构体系基础上,加强宏观科技资源的统筹协调配置。