MODELLING THE TREND: THE HISTORICAL ORIGINS OF SOME MODERN METHODS AND IDEAS

The development of the methods of correlation and regression analysis at the turn of the 20th century led to their use in attempting to identify relationships between economic variables. However, caution was soon expressed that correlating series with ‘secular’ trends was likely to be misleading. After some discussion of methods, linear detrending by least‐squares estimation became the default method. By the 1920s, however, some voices of dissent expressed the view that linear detrending was likely to be inappropriate in some, even many, cases. This led to a number of innovative methodological developments, including rolling window estimation, moving integration, non‐linear trends, structural breaks, sigmoid‐type smooth adjustment functions, the beginnings of stochastic trend modelling and the construction of ‘smoothers’ and filters. Although generally failing to have an impact at the time, all substantially predate their current use in econometrics. This paper establishes precedence for these ideas and recreates some of the empirical examples and early simulations.     

ON THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF SOME SMALL, UK-BASED INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FIRMS*

The paper reports on the discovery of some small but successful information technology firms. These firms, which are geographically and structurally highly mobile, were found in a recent survey of information technology firms in the north-west of England. Detailed investigation of the firms as case studies, revealed that they have many distinctive and interesting properties. Eleven distinguishing characteristics in addition to small size are identified; among them being lack of hierarchy, pervious boundaries, and extreme mobility including growth by replication. In the discussion, some differences in the organization of the firms are identified, it being argued that although all the firms lack hierarchy and tend to adopt very extreme forms of matrix organization, they do this to a greater degree the less they are dependent on technology for the creation of their products, and/or on the extent to which they retain proprietary products in their range. the paper concludes with a consideration of other work on new technology firms and argues that these findings are not unique. However, it is also argued that small firm researchers have not been very creative in their use of the available frameworks to account for the existence of the firms analysed in this paper, or to understand that it is the contingencies they face which allow them to be highly mobile and adaptable.     

THE NATIONALISATION OF RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNTS IN ARGENTINA

In October 2008, the government of Argentina announced that the citizens' privately owned retirement savings accounts (RSAs) would be nationalised. This article shows that contrary to the Kirchner government's assertions, the private savings system had great potential. Its performance may not have fully lived up to its initial expectations, but that was largely due to the adverse effects of underdeveloped securities markets, large informal sectors impeding widespread participation, intrusive investment regulation and poor implementation. Within its tight constraints, the private system worked better than the public PAYGO system.