Liquidity shocks and real GDP growth: Evidence from a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR

We examine the dynamic impact of liquidity shocks resonating in stock and housing markets on real GDP growth. We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility to US data from 1970 to 2014. GDP becomes highly sensitive to house market liquidity shocks as disruptions in the sector start to emerge, yet more resilient to stock market liquidity shocks throughout time. We provide substantial evidence in favour of asymmetric responses of GDP growth both across the business cycle, and among business cycle troughs. Stock and house market liquidity shocks explain, on average, 17% and 35% of the variation in GDP during the Great Recession, respectively.     

The impact of aggressive orders in an order-driven market: a simulation approach

This article investigates resiliency in an order-driven market. On basis of a vector autoregressive model capturing various dimensions of liquidity and their interactions, I simulate the effect of a large liquidity shock, measured by a very aggressive market order. I show that, despite the absence of market makers, the market is resilient. All dimensions of liquidity (spread, depth at the best prices and order book imbalances) revert to their steady-state values within 15 orders after the shock. For prices, a long run effect is found. Furthermore, different dimensions of liquidity interact. Immediately after a liquidity shock, the spread becomes wider than in the steady state, implying that one dimension of liquidity deteriorates, while at the same time, depth at the best prices increases, meaning an improvement of another liquidity dimension. In subsequent periods, the spread reverts back to the steady-state level but also depth decreases. Also, I find evidence for asymmetries in the impact of shocks on the ask and bid side. Shocks on the ask side have a stronger impact than shocks on the bid side. Finally, resiliency is higher for less-frequently traded stocks and stocks with a larger relative tick size.     

The Behavior of an Institutional Investor with Arbitrage Opportunities and Liquidity Risk

This study analyzes the efficiency of liquidity flows in stabilizing distressed markets from a theoretical perspective. We show that even in the event of a major negative market shock, a financial institution can increase its investment in the market when there is a strong incentive for arbitrage profit. However, the institution may choose to reduce its investment if the fear from liquidity risk exceeds the arbitrage incentive. In addition, our model reveals a positive relationship between funding liquidity and market liquidity. Our findings help to explain several financial issues in distressed markets, including the flight to quality, liquidity dry-ups, asset fire sales, and market shock amplifications.     

中国银行流动性过剩的成因辨析:一个新的视角

本文将银行的流动性资产分为自愿性(预防性)流动资产和非自愿性流动资产两部分.通过建立银行预防性流动资产需求模型,运用向量误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解方法实证分析我国银行流动性过剩的原因.实证结果表明:银行间同业拆借利率、汇率波动率、存款波动率和银行存款增加是银行流动性过剩的主要原因,银行的自愿性流动资产过剩和非自愿性流动性过剩并存,银行大量的流动性资产部分是为了规避融资成本、汇率风险和存款波动等风险而持有的.     

农信社银行间市场业务的发展状况与思考

近年来，我国银行间市场发展迅速，农村信用社改革试点工作也取得重大进展，但农村信用社银行间市场参与度普遍较低。文章以山东省内7个市地65家农村信用社为研究对象，深入分析影响其银行间市场业务发展的各种制约性因素，并在转变观念、完善体制和机制、加强政策指导和推动业务协作等方面提出了改进建议。     

The Effect of Market Transparency: Volatility and Liquidity in the Korean Stock Market

Faced with unprecedented competition, stock markets should have fairness and transparency. The effects of market transparency for the stock market volatility and liquidity will be investigated using the case of the Korean stock market. The evidence from this study indicates that increasing the market transparency makes the price discovery process more efficient than before from the viewpoint of stock market volatility, and increases the stock market liquidity compared with before.     

The Effects of Trading Methods on Volatility and Liquidity: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This study contrasts the call and continuous auction methods using Taiwan Stock Exchange data. Volatility under the call market method is approximately one-half of that under the continuous auction method. The call market method is more effective in reducing the volatility of high-volume stocks than low-volume stocks. This contradicts conventional wisdom which suggests that the call market method is superior for thinly traded stocks, while the continuous auction method is preferred for heavily traded stocks. The call market method does not impair liquidity and price discovery. The call market appears more efficient than in the continuous auction market.     

Liquidity commonality and spillover in the US and Japanese markets: an intraday analysis using exchange-traded funds

This article examines the intraday returns and liquidity patterns of the Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipts (SPY) and the iShares Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI) Japan Index Fund (EWJ). These exchange-traded funds seemingly have very different holdings, namely, US stocks and Japanese stocks. Our findings suggest that some commonality exists in the returns and liquidity of these apparently different assets. First, there are intraday, daily and monthly patterns in the measures of liquidity for both funds. Second, the measures of liquidity are correlated across these two assets. Third, there is evidence of intraday spillover in the mean, volatility and depth from the SPY to the EWJ, but daily spillover is not observed. Our study extends two evolving strands of the literature: the integration of world markets in terms of returns behavior, and the other strand suggests that liquidity may have a systematic, or market-wide, component. This paper provides direct evidence of the integration between the US and Japanese markets because contemporaneous trading prices for the US (SPY) and Japanese (EWJ) indices are employed.

Political institutions,stock market liquidity and firm dividend policy: Some international evidence

In this cross-country study, we draw on the dividend liquidity hypothesis and the political economy literature to examine whether political institutions affect the relationship between stock market liquidity and a firm’s dividend policy. In countries with weak political institutions, we expect that investors are less able to demand higher dividends for stocks with low liquidity. Using a sample of 52 countries, we show that the negative association between stock market liquidity and dividends is more pronounced in countries with sound political institutions, consistent with the “outcome” model of dividends. These results are stronger in countries with better legal institutions and weaker for firms with financial constraints.     

Changing the Size of a Futures Contract: Liquidity and Microstructure Effects

We analyze the relation between contract size and liquidity using data from the respecification of Sydney Future Exchange's (SFE) Share Price Index (SPI) and 90-day Bank Accepted Bill (BAB) futures contracts. Respecification of SPI and BAB contracts presents a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of a change in futures contract size. SFE decreased the size of SPI futures by a factor of four while increasing its minimum tick. The BAB contract was doubled in size with the minimum tick size left unchanged. We find, after controlling for market factors, that the respecification of the SPI futures resulted in higher trading volume, while that of BAB futures decreased trading volume. The results regarding spreads are ambiguous. Based on two cases investigated, we conclude that decreasing the futures contract size was effective in terms of enhancing liquidity while increasing the size resulted in a reduction in liquidity.     

Firm size,ownership structure,and systematic liquidity risk: The case of an emerging market

Previous studies support the hypothesis that institutional ownership leads to an enhanced systematic liquidity risk by increasing the commonality in liquidity. By using a proprietary database of all incoming orders and ownership structure in an emerging stock market, we show that institutional ownership leads to an increase in commonality in liquidity for mid- to-large cap firms; however, only individual ownership can lead to such an increase for small cap firms, revealing a new source of systematic liquidity risk for a specific group of firms. We also reveal that commonality decreases with the increasing number of investors (for both individual and institutional) at any firm size level; suggesting that as the investor base gets larger, views of market participants become more heterogeneous, which provides an alternative way to decrease the systematic liquidity risk.     

Forecasting Bull and Bear Markets: Evidence from China

This article extends previous empirical research to forecast Chinese bull and bear stock markets by using three types of binary probit time series models, which are static, autoregressive, and dynamic autoregressive models. This study shows that the dynamic auto regressive model performs the best both in- and out-of-sample. The inflation and market return variables significantly affect the market forecast. The dynamic autoregressive model has successfully forecast the bull and bear markets since 2007. The investment strategy based on this model performs better than the simple buy-and-hold strategy, especially after the Chinese government reformed the non-tradable shares in 2005.     

Liquidity operations during the financial crisis 2008/09: evidence from the relations between Korean won onshore and offshore markets

This paper addresses the interrelation of onshore and offshore markets before and after the Bank of Korea intervened in 2008/09. During the financial crisis, Korea faced a liquidity crunch and leveraged its high level of reserves to conduct swap agreements in late 2008. To analyse how the reforms affected the mean and volatility spillover in between the spot and NDF markets, an extended GARCH model is used. The main findings of this paper are that prior to the financial crisis, the spot market dominated the offshore market. This changed after South Korea addressed the won’s liquidity crunch at the height of the crisis. Mean and volatility spillover between the markets diminished and the price gap narrowed. In addition to the empirical results, the paper also underlines the significance of liquidity and robust capital requirements for central banks.     

Liquidity and capital under uncertainty and changing market sentiment: A simple analysis

This study introduces a general approach to investigate resource allocation and asset prices in an economy with uncertainty and shifts in market sentiment. The approach presents a number of key features: first, it proposes a choice-theoretic model that determines the utility that the agents derive from holding assets with different liquidity. Second, it incorporates a variable (endogenously-determined) cost structure of asset liquidation, which reflects the (in)efficiencies of the financial infrastructure and changes in market moods. Third, it also incorporates a model of expectations formation under uncertainty and changing market sentiment. While rich in structure, the approach offers a simple analytical framework to investigate resource allocation decision and asset price dynamics under various sources of uncertainty, and to explore the micro-economics of speculative bubbles and boom–bust sequences. The use of a possible market-specific prudential policy tool is discussed.     

上交所与银行间国债市场的新券效应及比较

新券效应与国债品种特征、投资者行为和市场微观结构均有密切关系.上交所和银行间国债市场的新券效应不仅存在共同点,也存在明显差异.在交易额占比最大的基准国债品种上,两个市场均表现出显著的新券效应.但由于投资者行为存在差异,上交所国债市场的新券效应更倾向于中长期国债品种,而银行间国债市场的新券效应更倾向于短期国债品种.而且,上交所国债市场的指令驱动交易方式便于连续交易和信息披露,方便考察新券效应,而银行间国债市场仅能在较短时间内考察新券效应.在上交所国债市场上,中长期国债与国债回购的利差更大,有利于现券回购套利投资,中长期新券吸引套利投资者积极参与,也促进了新券效应.     

上交所与银行间国债市场的新券效应及比较

新券效应与国债品种特征、投资者行为和市场微观结构均有密切关系。上交所和银行间国债市场的新券效应不仅存在共同点，也存在明显差异。在交易额占比最大的基准国债品种上，两个市场均表现出显著的新券效应。但由于投资者行为存在差异，上交所国债市场的新券效应更倾向于中长期国债品种，而银行间国债市场的新券效应更倾向于短期国债品种。而且，上交所国债市场的指令驱动交易方式便于连续交易和信息披露，方便考察新券效应，而银行间国债市场仅能在较短时间内考察新券效应。在上交所国债市场上，中长期国债与国债回购的利差更大，有利于现券回购套利投资，中长期新券吸引套利投资者积极参与，也促进了新券效应。     

Precious metals under the microscope: a high-frequency analysis

Taking advantage of a trades-and-quotes high-frequency database, we document the main stylized facts and dynamic properties of spot precious metals, i.e. gold, silver, palladium and platinum. We analyse the behaviours of spot prices, returns, volume and selected liquidity measures. We find clear evidence of periodic patterns matching the trading hours of the most active markets round-the-clock. The time series of spot returns have, thus, properties similar to those of traditional financial assets with fat tails, asymmetry, periodic behaviours in the conditional variances and volatility clustering. Gold (platinum) is the most (least) liquid and least (most) volatile asset. Commonality in liquidities of precious metals is very strong.     

Market impact: a systematic study of the high frequency options market

This paper deals with a fundamental subject that has seldom been addressed in recent years, that of market impact in the options market. Our analysis is based on a proprietary database of metaorders—large orders that are split into smaller pieces before being sent to the market—on one of the main Asian markets. In line with our previous work on the equity market [Said, E., Bel Hadj Ayed, A., Husson, A. and Abergel, F., Market impact: A systematic study of limit orders. Mark. Microstruct. Liq., 2018, 3(3&4), 1850008.], we propose an algorithmic approach to identify metaorders, based on some implied volatility parameters, the at the money forward volatility and at the money forward skew. In both cases, we obtain results similar to the now well-understood equity market: Square-Root Law, Fair Pricing Condition and Market Impact Dynamics.     

股市流动性、市场关注度与创业板上市公司转板选择——兼论我国多层次资本市场建设

本文从创业板上市公司的角度出发,通过理论模型探讨了流动性、市场关注度对其转板选择的影响。在此基础上,采用统计比较方法从全市场和配对样本两个方面分析我国创业板市场与主板市场在流动性、市场关注度和新股发行市盈率方面的异同。研究发现,我国创业板上市公司可能无法通过转板至主板上市这一途径来增强其股票的流动性和市场关注度。基于以上研究结论,有针对性地提出了有关我国建设多层次资本市场体系的政策建议。