Pluralism or isolation of Civilisations? Russia's foreign policy discourse and the reception of Huntington's paradigm of the post‐cold war world

This paper studies the effects of Samuel Huntington's ‘Clash of Civilisations’ thesis on Russian foreign policy discourse. In response to Huntington's thesis, two major currents of Russia's foreign policy thinking ‐ Liberals and Nationalists ‐ are identified, both of which are critical of the thesis. The two groups offer diametrically opposed alternatives to Huntington's paradigm of the post‐Cold War world. The Liberal‐Nationalist controversy reflects Russia's debates about its own political identity and provides us with a rich and informative understanding of the process of identity formation. By identifying Russia's various reactions to the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ thesis, the paper identifies potential influences of various currents in Russian foreign policy thinking on the country's future foreign policy. It also suggests some implications for further studies of cultures/civilisations in international politics.     

Women and Retirement Pensions: A Research Review

Abstract

The links between women's caring work and access to economic resources are particularly critical in the context of widespread public policy debates about retirement and pensions, many of which neglect care as a key issue for analysis. However, among feminist economists it is widely recognized that women's patterns of care provision have adverse implications for their access to economic resources in later life. The feminist economics literature examines many of the interactions between women's caring roles and their access to resources, particularly women's capacity to access economic resources through publicly mandated or regulated pension schemes. This article reviews research that places women's patterns of work and care at the center of analyses of retirement pension policy in an effort to provide a summary of research on gender and pensions policy and to contrast the extent to which differing institutional and policy frameworks accommodate women's caring roles.     

EXTREMIST PLATFORMS: POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF PROFIT-SEEKING MEDIA

We analyze how information about candidate quality affects the choice of electoral platforms made by an office-motivated political challenger. The incumbent is of known quality and located at the ideal policy of the voter. The voter cares for both policy and the candidates' quality and can learn about the challenger's quality by buying information. A high-quality challenger then has an incentive to signal her quality by choosing a policy that induces the voter to buy information. We first study the benchmark case in which the information is supplied exogenously, and its quality is independent of the challenger's platform; this yields multiple equilibria and indeterminacy of equilibrium platforms. By contrast, when the information is supplied by a profit-maximizing media outlet, its quality depends on the challenger's platform and we obtain a unique equilibrium platform. In particular, when the incumbent's quality is relatively low, the media coverage rises and the challenger's platform diverges further from the voter's ideal policy as the voter's preference for quality increases.     

Lobbying,political competition and the welfare effect of campaign contribution tax

This paper develops a probabilistic voting model in which a single lobby group commits campaign contributions to parties, contingent on the policy position the party adopts. Parties may have different propensities for diverting campaign funds towards rents. We show that a party that skims more from contributions mobilises fewer uninformed voters but places more value on receiving greater contributions. Further, the contributions and vote share of the party increases with the distance between the lobby's preferred policy and the median voter's ideal policy. Finally, we show that the equilibrium policy is between the median voter's ideal point and the lobby's preferred policy. Such an equilibrium policy does not maximise the aggregate social welfare due to the distortionary nature of lobbying. However, when an appropriate contribution tax is introduced to limit this distortion, social welfare will be maximised.     

Environmental Policy in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Analysis

A dynamic model is constructed of the environmental policy formulation process in a stylized developing country (DC). The paper analyzes the employment and output effects of three pollution control policies. These policies embody different assumptions about the DC government's ability to commit to its announced course of action. The timepath of the government's policy variable is characterized. Optimality calls for an activist policy, irrespective of the length of time to which the government can commit to its announced policy. However, the effects of this activist policy depend fundamentally on the government's period of commitment.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE BANK OF JAPAN'S ZERO INTEREST RATE COMMITMENT AND QUANTITATIVE MONETARY EASING ON THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO‐FINANCE APPROACH*

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) zero interest rate commitment and quantitative monetary easing on the yield curve. Applying a macro‐finance approach, we decompose interest rates into expectations and risk premium components and extract the market's perception of the BOJ's policy stance. We make clear the counterfactual policy without the BOJ's commitment. We find some evidence that the commitment lowered interest rates and mat raising the reserve target may have been perceived as a signal indicating the BOJ's accommodative policy stance. The portfolio rebalancing effect has not been found to be significant.     

产业政策对企业跨界经营行为的影响

基于2006—2015年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究了产业政策对企业跨界经营行为的影响。结果表明:产业政策会引导企业通过跨界经营进入政策支持行业;通过有关联跨界进入政策支持行业的企业的经营绩效会显著提高,而无关联跨界反而会降低企业价值;在产业政策的引导作用下,企业为了政策寻租而采取的无关联跨界行为,既不利于自身的长远发展,又会降低产业政策的效果。     

A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma

A modern incarnation of the trilemma is essential for understanding the evolving global financial architecture, and for coming up with ways to mitigate financial fragility. The scarcity of policy instruments relative to the policy goals implies complex country-specific tradeoffs between the policy goals. The financial crises of the 1990s induced Emerging markets to converge to trilemma's middle ground -- managed exchange-rate flexibility, controlled financial integration, and viable but limited monetary independence. Capital flight crises added financial stability to trilemma's policy goals. New policies were added to deal with financial fragility associated with financial integration, including precautionary management of international reserves by emerging markets, swap lines among OECD's central banks, and macroeconomic prudential regulations. These trade-offs are impacted by a country's balance sheet exposure to hard currencies, the exchange-rate regime, and the growing sensitivity to shocks emanating from the U.S. and the Eurozone in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.     

The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the long-term sovereign bond spread of Italy relative to Germany. After collecting data on relevant fiscal policy announcements, we perform an econometric comparative analysis between the three administrations that followed one another during the period 2009–2013. The results indicate that only fiscal policy announcements made by members of Monti's cabinet had a significant impact on the Italian spread. We argue that these findings may be partly explained by a credibility gap between Monti's technocratic administration and Berlusconi's and Letta's governments.     

The implicit objective function of Italian macroeconomic policy: 1963:1–1980:4

Econometric estimates of policy makers' preferences can be an important source of information for ex post macroeconomic policy analysis. This paper first discusses the econometric methodology to obtain consistent estimates of the policy maker's objective function. Properties of the estimation process are derived by appropriately solving an inverse control problem. Then, Italian macroeconomic data are used to estimate the policy maker's preferences under different specifications of his objective function. The major finding is that the balance of payments equilibrium was the main target of Italian macroeconomic policy.     

From households to national statistics: Macroeconomic effects of Women's empowerment

How do shifts in intra-household gender dynamics affect the economy at large? This paper parametrizes intra-household gender-powered decision-making and endogenous distributions of income to allow for the aggregation of key macroeconomic variables. In equilibrium, we find that greater women's empowerment increases precautionary savings to offset low endowment realizations. The effect is stronger among poor households who hedge against hitting a subsistence bound. Given the boost in savings at the bottom of the distribution, more empowerment leads to less poverty and lower income inequality. Another equilibrium prediction of the model is an increase in the household's food intake regardless of income, reflecting women's greater preference for food compared to men. The model's predictions are mapped to Mexico's 2014 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey which identifies the gender of the head of the household. These predictions have policy implications in the areas of monetary policy, social policy, financial intermediation and banking.     

FDI Policy,Greenfield Investment and Cross‐border Mergers

This paper examines a multinational's choice between greenfield investment and cross‐border merger when it enters another country via foreign direct investment (FDI) and faces the host country's FDI policy. Greenfield investment incurs a fixed plant setup cost, whereas the foreign firm obtains only a share of the joint profit from a cross‐border merger under the restriction of the FDI policy. This trade‐off is affected by market demand, cost differential, and market competition, among other things. The host country's government chooses its FDI policy to affect (or alter) the multinational's entry mode to achieve the maximum social welfare for the domestic country. We characterize the conditions shaping the optimal FDI policy and offer intuitions on FDI patterns in developing and developed countries.     

IDEAL AND REAL JAPANESE MONETARY POLICY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL AND OPTIMAL POLICY MEASURES*

This paper discusses the successes and failures of Japanese monetary policy by evaluating policies from January 1980 to May 2003 in the light of optimal policy rules. First, we quantitatively conceptualize the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s policy decisions by employing Bernanke and Mihov's (1998 ) econometric methodology for developing monetary policy measures and term the resulting policy measure the ‘actual policy measure’. Next, assuming that the BOJ is committed to optimal policy rules, we simulate optimal policy paths, which we term ‘optimal policy measures’. We evaluate Japanese monetary policy historically by comparing actual and optimal policy measures.     

The Women's Movement Against Sexual Harassment,by Carrie N. Baker

This paper examines some of the effects of East and West German family policy on women's economic position by analyzing intrahousehold bargaining power, defined here as based on co-resident partners' relative fall-back positions, which in turn depend on the individuals' access to income in the event that the partnership ends. East German policy sought to integrate women into the labor force through programs such as free public child care and liberal maternity leave. West Germany based its family policy on the assumption of a stark gender division of labor, with one lifetime breadwinner per family and a second parent who temporarily leaves the labor force to raise children. On the basis of her findings and analysis, the author argues that while East German institutions increased women's bargaining power, gender-specific policies interfered with women's ability to use this power to bring about changes in the household division of labor. West German family policy did not assign gender roles, but it offered women less bargaining power with which to negotiate. The author maintains that society's refusal to address women's greater child-rearing costs is not based on an assessment of such costs and the costs of redistributive government programs, but on the assumption that women should absorb the risks and burdens of reproduction.     

Vox Populi,Vox Dei? Tacit collusion in politics

We study competition between political parties in repeated elections with probabilistic voting. This model entails multiple equilibria, and we focus on cases where political collusion occurs. When parties hold different opinions on some policy, they may take different policy positions that do not coincide with the median voter's preferred policy platform. In contrast, when parties have a mutual understanding on a particular policy, their policy positions may converge (on some dimension) but not to the median voter's preferred policy. That is to say, parties can tacitly collude with one another, despite political competition. Collusion may collapse, for instance, after the entry of a new political party. This model rationalizes patterns in survey data from Sweden, where politicians on different sides of the political spectrum take different positions on economic policy but similar positions on refugee intake—diverging from the average voter's position, but only until the entry of a populist party.     

Prices vs. quantities in a dynamic problem: Externalities from resource extraction

This paper shows how a stationary tax policy can optimally address a flow externality associated with resource extraction when the policymaker faces asymmetric information. In the model I consider, the policymaker must set policy in each period before the realization of a price shock. Resource owners then learn the value of the shock, and the owners choose extraction quantities. The optimal policy is a stationary tax rule that responds to a positive shock to the current price by reducing next period's tax rate. Intuitively, a reduction in next period's tax rate makes extraction next period less expensive and thus dampens the resource owner's current response to a price increase. This policy is robust to some, but not necessarily all, boundary solutions.     

Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?

This paper examines whether the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have provided markets with additional information about the future course of monetary policy. The paper conducts an econometric approach based on an Ordered Probit model explaining future policy rate changes (sample 1998 to 2014), and the Vuong test for model selection, which helps to identify changes in the market assessment around the release of MPC minutes. Our results suggest that the Bank of England's published minutes of the MPC's deliberations have indeed helped markets in forming their expectations on future monetary policy decisions.     

产业政策对光伏企业创新绩效的影响研究——基于区域创新体系的调节作用

我国宏观产业政策的持续投入与微观光伏企业难以突破自身核心技术创新瓶颈的矛盾迫切需要理论研究解答。本文选取沪深A股中的41家光伏上市企业作为研究对象,并在梳理了我国政府部门发布的285项光伏产业政策的基础上,以2009—2020年为时间跨度建立面板数据模型实证研究了我国光伏产业政策对企业创新绩效的作用机制,并引入区域创新体系这一异质性因素检验其在影响路径中的调节作用。实证研究表明：我国光伏产业政策对企业的创新绩效有显著的正向影响;同时区域创新体系中的企业创新指标和创新环境指标在上述传导过程中分别具有显著的正向和负向调节效应。     

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and the CommonMediterranean Strategy? European Union Policy from a Discursive Perspective

This article assesses the European Union's Mediterranean policy from a discursive perspective and focuses specifically on the actual, identifiable impact of the Union's security discourse. In doing so it seeks to demonstrate how the Union's Mediterranean security policy has impacted on issues of identity. The implicit reference to sub-regional cooperation in the Union's Common Mediterranean Strategy may be read as a way to facilitate the lack of a clear definition of exactly what type of security or rather insecurity the European Union as a whole is trying to address when dealing with its ‘Mediterranean’.     

Tying the politicians’ hands: The optimal limits to representative democracy

The citizen candidate models of democracy assume that politicians have their own preferences that are not fully revealed at the time of elections. We study the optimal delegation problem which arises between the median voter (the writer of the constitution) and the (future) incumbent politician under the assumption that not only the state of the world but also the politician's type (preferred policy) are the policy‐maker's private information. We show that it is optimal to tie the hands of the politician by imposing both a policy floor and a policy cap and delegating him/her the policy choice only in between the cap and the floor. The delegation interval is shown to be the smaller the greater is the uncertainty about the politician's type. These results are also applicable to settings outside the specific problem that our model addresses.