Bilateral capital flows and the exchange rate: The case of the U.S.A. vis-à-vis Canada,France, West Germany and the U.K.

After a preliminary test (with generally negative results) of the interest parity assumption, an eclectic portfolio adjustment approach, which determines an exchange pressures variable (under a régime of a managed float) is constructed, for bilateral comparisons between the United States and its major trading partners taken individually. This approach to bilateral capital flows and managed exchange rate determination appears to function reasonably well, as judged by the empirical results. Interestingly, factors specific to individual exchange markets appear to play important roles in explaining bilateral capital flows and cross exchange rates, which would not occur in a Walrasian world, with global market clearing.     

Research,teaching, and ‘other’: what determines job placement of economics Ph.D.s?

This article examines job placement for Economics Ph.D.s seeking junior-level positions using a data set constructed from job candidate vitas, public websites, and queries to programme directors. Based upon multinomial logit estimation, being from highly ranked graduate institutions and having high quality publications has a significantly positive effect on placement at a top 20 academic institution or Doctoral-level institution. Teaching experience – as a teaching assistant (TA) or independent instructor – has a significantly positive effect on placement, but only for institutions ranked below the top 60, Masters and Baccalaureate institutions, and non-tenure track academic positions. We find little evidence on the effect of teaching in tenure track hires for departments with Doctoral programmes or mid-tier prestige. Moreover, teaching experience has a significantly negative effect on placement in the top group of academic institutions in Economics.     

The economic content of G.D.H. Cole’s guild socialism: behavioral assumptions,institutional structure,and analytical arguments

Despite a utopian tendency, G.D.H. Cole’s Guild Socialist writings exhibit considerable economic content. After sketching the historical context of Cole’s Guild Socialism and its broad ideology, we address its economic content by: 1. Cataloging Cole’s assumptions concerning worker motivation and utilitarian norms; 2. Clarifying the economic problems Cole sets out to address; 3. Describing the institutional structures of Cole’s Guild Socialism; 4. Exploring Cole’s theoretical contributions and their relation to modern constructs such as the economics of the employment relationship; and 5. Evaluating the extent to which the resulting body of theory is coherent, non-trivial, and normatively attractive.     

Real exchange rate shocks on tradables,nontradables, and the current account: Mexico, 1980–2000.

Effects of external and income shocks on consumption and on the current account in Mexico from 1980 to 2000 are investigated. An intertemporal model captures the extent into which non-traded goods consumption affects traded-goods consumption, clarifying the roles of intratemporal or intertemporal substitution. Vector autoregressions (VARs) show that the 1% shock to non-traded goods consumption affects traded-goods consumption by −2% immediately, reverting to zero only after one year, supporting the intratemporal channel. Real exchange rate (RER) shocks exert considerable macroeconomic fluctuations. The 1% shock to RER affects traded goods consumption by −2% immediately, reaching −5% one year later. At the expense of income shocks, RER shocks grow in explanatory power over time: from 20%–25% at 1 quarter to 65%–69% of the variance of traded goods consumption 3 years later. Figures for the current account range from 14% to 68%, while income shocks appear less important. In contrast, for non-traded goods, RER shocks roughly match the quantitative importance of income shocks, reinforcing the theoretical analysis. First version received: June 2001/Final version received: July 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  Previous versions of this paper were presented at the conferences: “Economic and Financial Cycles and NAFTA: Micro and Macro Issues and Analysis” in Mexico City and at the “35^th Annual Meeting of the Canadian Economics Association” in Montréal. I wish to thank two anonymous referees of this journal for very helpful comments, Steven Ambler, Vincent Dropsy, Jo?o Faria, Michel Normandin, Yoshi Otani, Tsunemasa Shiba and Gerardo Villoslado for comments and encouragement. I remain solely responsible for the shortcomings of this paper. Financial support from the Japanese Ministry of Education and Culture in early parts of this project is gratefully acknowledged.