A Market-based Risk Classification of Financial Institutions

In this article we derive, estimate, and analyze a multifactor model of the monthly holding period returns on the stocks of exchange-traded financial institutions. In addition to bond and equity returns, the factors include default, liquidity, and term structure risk premiums plus variables that measure changes in deposit demand. To ensure that our sample has a large number of firms, we use data from January 1981 through December 1988. The equity return explains a large share of time-series variation in financial institutions' returns. The additional factors implied by theory have little incremental explanatory power. The two-factor model regression coefficients have considerable cross-sectional variation. This permits us to group intermediaries into portfolios with similar risk exposures. These portfolios bear no relation to the SIC codes that group intermediaries by their charters and lines of business.     

Does the equity premium puzzle persist during financial crisis? The case of the French equity market

This paper examines the effects of the financial crisis that began in 2008 on the equity premium of 6 French sector indices. Since the systematic risk coefficient beta remains the most common explanatory element of risk premium in most asset pricing models, we investigate the impact of the crisis on the time-varying beta of the six sector indices cited. We selected daily data from January 2003 to December 2012 and we applied the bivariate MA-GARCH model (BEKK) to estimate time-varying betas for the sector indices. The crisis was marked by increased volatility of the sector indices and the market. This rise in volatility led to an increase in the systematic risk coefficient during the crisis and first post-crisis period for all the major indices. The results are intuitive and corroborate findings in the empirical literature. The increase of the time-varying beta is considered by investors as an additional risk. Therefore, as expected, investors tend to increase their equity premiums to b ear the impact of financial crisis.     

Comoment risk and stock returns

We estimate investable comoment equity risk premiums for the US markets. The stock's contribution to the asymmetry and the fat tails of the market portfolio's payoff are priced into a coskewness premium and a cokurtosis premium. We construct zero-investment strategies that are long and short in coskewness and cokurtosis equity risks; we infer from the spread the returns attached to a unit exposure to US equity coskewness and cokurtosis. The coskewness and cokurtosis premiums present positive monthly average returns of 0.27% and 0.14% from January 1959 to December 2011. Comoment risks appear to be significantly priced within the US stock market and display significant explanatory power regarding the US size and book-to-market effects. The premiums do not subsume, but rather complement the empirical capital asset pricing model. Our analysis relies on data collected from CRSP (Chicago Research Center for Security Prices) over December 1955 to December 2011. To our knowledge, the paper is the first to propose investable higher-moment risk factors over such an extensive time period.     

Aggregate implications of micro asset market segmentation

An extensive empirical literature finds that micro asset markets are segmented from one another. We develop a consumption-based asset pricing model to quantify the aggregate implications of a financial system comprised of many such segmented micro asset markets. We specify exogenously the level of segmentation that determines how much idiosyncratic risk traders bear in their micro market and calibrate the segmentation to match facts about systematic and idiosyncratic return volatility. In our benchmark model traders bear 30% of their idiosyncratic risk, the unconditional aggregate equity premium is 2.4% annual, and the welfare costs of segmentation are substantial, 1.8% of lifetime consumption.     

Heterogeneous agents,the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability

We construct an empirical heterogeneous agent model which optimally combines forecasts from fundamentalist and chartist agents and evaluates its out-of-sample forecast performance using daily data covering an overall period from January 1999 to June 2014 for six of the most widely traded currencies. We use daily financial data such as level, slope and curvature yield curve factors, equity prices, as well as risk aversion and global trade activity measures in the fundamentalist agent's predictor set to obtain a proxy for the market's view on the state of the macroeconomy. Chartist agents rely upon standard momentum, moving average and relative strength index technical indicators in their predictor set. Individual agent specific forecasts are constructed using a flexible dynamic model averaging framework and are then aggregated into a model combined forecast using a forecast combination regression. We show that our empirical heterogeneous agent model produces statistically significant and economically sizeable forecast improvements over a random walk benchmark.     

The skewness risk premium in equilibrium and stock return predictability

In this study, we investigate the skewness risk premium in the financial market under a general equilibrium setting. Extending the long-run risks (LRR) model proposed by Bansal and Yaron (J Financ 59:1481–1509, 2004) by introducing a stochastic jump intensity for jumps in the LRR factor and the variance of consumption growth rate, we provide an explicit representation for the skewness risk premium, as well as the volatility risk premium, in equilibrium. On the basis of the representation for the skewness risk premium, we propose a possible reason for the empirical facts of time-varying and negative risk-neutral skewness. Moreover, we also provide an equity risk premium representation of a linear factor pricing model with the variance and skewness risk premiums. The empirical results imply that the skewness risk premium, as well as the variance risk premium, has superior predictive power for future aggregate stock market index returns, which are consistent with the theoretical implication derived by our model. Compared with the variance risk premium, the results show that the skewness risk premium plays an independent and essential role for predicting the market index returns.     

Modeling Corporate Bond Returns

We propose a conditional factor model for corporate bond returns with five factors and time-varying factor loadings. We have three main empirical findings. First, our factor model excels in describing the risks and returns of corporate bonds, improving over previously proposed models in the literature by a large margin. Second, our model recommends a systematic bond investment portfolio whose high out-of-sample Sharpe ratio suggests that the credit risk premium is notably larger than previously estimated. Third, we find closer integration between debt and equity markets than found in prior literature.     

西方险企投资在金融危机中的整体表现及原因探析

保险资金投资组合整体上受本轮危机冲击不大,其中美国寿险公司通用账户的整体表现最好。其原因有:险资对次贷关联资产风险暴露十分有限且各类安全性指标出淤泥而不染;对受牵连的高风险资产,险资配置股权比例也低且私募股权账面值不受股指下跌拖累;债券方面,风险溢价上升与基准利率下调产生抵消作用,国企债在很多险资企业债中占上风。主要启示包括:险资资产配置要与波动性承受能力相适应,尤其主力资产要坚守传统安全资产、系统重要性资产。     

Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?

This paper analyzes how risk premiums altered the use of commercial paper relative to bank loans during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with the theoretical and empirical literature on how surges in risk premiums can induce plunges in under-collateralized credit or credit funded with noninsured sources, results indicate that a spike in risk premiums induced a plunge in commercial paper use during the recent crisis. This paper also finds that Federal Reserve interventions in the money market helped prevent the commercial paper market from melting down to the extent seen during the early 1930s.     

On the premiums of iShares

We show that the newly developed exchange-traded world equity index funds, or iShares, trade at economically significant premiums for 10–50% of the times even after controlling for transaction costs and time-zone measurement errors. Moreover, iShares price returns exhibit excessive volatility relative to their NAV returns. These findings suggest a limit of arbitrage in the international iShares market where iShares can be created and redeemed at will and premiums that exceed the creation/redemption transaction costs should be immediately arbitraged away. However, our cointegration and persistence profile analyses indicate that the deviations of most iShares' prices from their NAVs are not persistent and converge to zero within two days. We propose several rational factors to explain the absolute value of iShares premiums. The panel regression results suggest that institutional ownership, bid–ask spread, trading volume, exchange rate volatility, political and financial crises and, to a lesser extent, the conditional correlation between the U.S. and home markets are the significant driving factors of the size of iShares premiums. However, a significant variation of the premiums still remains unexplained, which suggests that behavioral factors may account for some mispricing.     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

Determinants of equity return correlations: a case study of the Amman Stock Exchange

This paper seeks to explain time-varying correlations among equity returns. The literature has shown that fundamental and economic factors can explain stock returns or the volatility of markets. Here, panel data analysis is employed to examine whether these factors can also explain the comovement of stock returns. Time-varying correlations among sectoral indexes are estimated using a restricted multivariate threshold GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlation controlling for the asymmetric effects of news and the influence of financial crises. The empirical results from this panel data analysis show that equity return correlations can be explained not only by macroeconomic variables but also by fundamentals within an industry.     

Private equity bids in Australia: an exploratory study

In this study, we provide an insight into how private equity players choose their targets and the bid arrangements they prefer. We test our expectations of the unique features of private equity targets using a sample of 23 listed private equity target firms during 2001–2007. We find, relative to a benchmark sample of 81 corporate targets matched by year and industry, the private equity target firms to be larger, more profitable, use their assets more efficiently, more highly levered and have greater cash flow. Multivariate testing indicates that private equity targets have relatively greater financial slack, greater financial stability, greater free cash flow and lower measurable growth prospects. All conclusions are found to be robust to a control sample of 502 takeover bids during 2001–2007.     

Resolution of financial distress: A theory of the choice between Chapter 11 and workouts

We model the reorganization decision of distressed firms. One of the novel features of our paper is that we examine the asset and liability side restructuring decisions jointly to resolve financial distress. Secondly, we model several institutional features of coping with financial distress such as debtor-in-possession financing, prepackaged bankruptcies, and asset sales. In our model, asset liquidity, indirect costs of financial distress, and the option value of equity are the determinants of the choice between Chapter 11 reorganizations and workouts. The model develops several testable predictions, some of which are novel and others of which are able to explain previously documented empirical results.     

财政转移支付如何影响了地方政府债务?

本文以地方融资平台公司发行的城投债为样本,研究来自中央政府的财政转移支付对于地方城投债发行的影响。研究发现,来自中央政府的人均财政专项转移支付每增加1元,会导致地方融资平台公司城投债发行增加人均0.312元,而包括税收返还和一般性转移支付在内的非专项转移支付对城投债的发行并无显著影响。并且,专项转移支付对城投债发行的显著正影响只在中西部省份存在,东部地区并未发现这一机制。本文的进一步研究表明,地方政府债务的借新还旧现象也正在显现,并且变得越来越严重。     

中国实体企业金融化:货币扩张、资本逐利还是风险规避?

本文构建了一个刻画实体企业在流动性金融资产和固定资产之间进行权衡的投资组合选择模型,并创新性地将货币扩张的宏观因素引入微观模型,推演中国实业部门金融化的驱动逻辑。理论模型显示:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避本质上是宏观和微观两个不同层面的要素变量,但都卷入实业部门金融化的驱动机制中,然而驱动效应的表现形式要比已有文献的理论模型更加复杂。基于上市公司面板数据总体样本的实证结果表明:货币扩张、资本逐利和风险规避均是企业金融化的关键影响因素,但货币扩张表现为直接抑制和间接促进两种效应。进一步引入宏观风险因素和根据企业所有权性质划分样本的稳健性检验则给出了更为细致的信息:货币因素可能通过宏观风险因素间接作用于企业金融化;所有权性质不同的企业的金融化驱动机制也表现出明显的异质性:国有企业金融化主要受货币因素和风险规避因素影响;民营企业金融资产占比层面的金融化驱动因素是风险规避和资本逐利,而金融渠道获利占比层面的金融化则受到货币因素的显著影响;其他类型企业的金融化主要受货币因素的显著影响。     

Predicting systematic risk: Implications from growth options

In accordance with the well-known financial leverage effect, decreases in stock prices cause an increase in the levered equity beta for a given unlevered beta. However, as growth options are more volatile and have higher risk than assets in place, a price decrease may decrease the unlevered equity beta via an operating leverage effect. This is because price decreases are associated with a proportionately higher loss in growth options than in assets in place. Most of the existing literature focuses on the financial leverage effect: This paper examines both effects. We show, with a simple option pricing model, the opposing effects at work when the firm is a portfolio of assets in place and growth options. Our empirical results show that, contrary to common belief, the operating leverage effect largely dominates the financial leverage effect, even for initially highly levered firms with presumably few growth options. We then link variations in betas to measurable firm characteristics that proxy for the fraction of the firm invested in growth options. We show that these proxies jointly predict a large fraction of future cross-sectional differences in betas. These results have important implications on the predictability of equity betas, hence on empirical asset pricing and on portfolio optimization that controls for systematic risk.     

Buyout Transactions in the German‐speaking Region: Determinants of Abnormal Performance and Unlevered Returns

This is one of the first comprehensive studies of drivers of private equity performance in the German‐speaking region known as the DACH, made up of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. It contributes three things to private equity research: First, it explains how operational value drivers affect operational performance (operational alpha) and unlevered rates of return. Second, it whether the same relationships hold across different kinds of private equity business models (those with either organic or inorganic growth strategies; or whether PE investments are small‐cap or mid‐to‐large‐cap). Third, it distinguished between the periods before and after the global financial crisis of 2008. The authors found that (1) annualised benchmark‐adjusted EBITDA margin growth (i.e. improvement in EBITDA margin) is the most significant determinant in abnormal operational performance and unlevered returns, regardless of the business model; (2) private equity firms executing a buy‐and‐build strategy generate lower unlevered returns than those executing an organic growth strategy when the benchmark company is clearly outperformed, most likely because of limited PE managerial resources; (3) mid‐to‐large‐cap private equity firms generate higher unlevered returns and operational alphas than small‐cap private equity firms when the benchmark company is clearly outperformed, because, we believe, larger companies have a higher fixed cost leverage than smaller ones; and we have found that (4) buyout transactions exited during or after the financial crisis yield higher operational alphas but lower unlevered returns compared to buyout transactions exited before the crisis, when the portfolio company underperforms its benchmark company.     

超预期股本扩张与分析师每股盈余预测

卖方分析师的每股盈余预测在实证文献中被广泛使用。该指标同时依赖于分析师对目标公司未来净利润的预测和对目标公司未来股本数量的预测。因此,如果在分析师发布预测后,目标公司的股本数量发生超出分析师预期的扩张,则每股盈余预测将无法代表分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文构建了“调整后每股盈余预测”指标,该指标可剔除超预期股本扩张对每股盈余预测的影响,真实反映分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文应用该指标,在两个具体的实证研究场景中证明了,忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能得出错误的实证结论。本文还进一步指出了三个忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能导致错误实证结果的研究场景。     

超预期股本扩张与分析师每股盈余预测

卖方分析师的每股盈余预测在实证文献中被广泛使用。该指标同时依赖于分析师对目标公司未来净利润的预测和对目标公司未来股本数量的预测。因此,如果在分析师发布预测后,目标公司的股本数量发生超出分析师预期的扩张,则每股盈余预测将无法代表分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文构建了“调整后每股盈余预测”指标,该指标可剔除超预期股本扩张对每股盈余预测的影响,真实反映分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文应用该指标,在两个具体的实证研究场景中证明了,忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能得出错误的实证结论。本文还进一步指出了三个忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能导致错误实证结果的研究场景。