Good for one,bad for all: Determinants of individual versus systemic risk

We analyze a sample of large international banks in major advanced economies and examine the impact that bank-specific factors have on an institution's solvency risk and its contribution to systemic risk. We focus on the five categories that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has recently proposed as indicators of systemic importance. Our findings suggest that unstable funding is the main factor driving systemic risk. Furthermore, the combination of significant trading activities with global presence appears to exacerbate spillover risks to the global financial system. Interestingly, whereas trading activities contribute to the build-up of correlated or ‘wrong-way’ risk they help to mitigate individual solvency risk. Conversely, a decentralized approach to liquidity management seems to alleviate individual solvency risk but amplifies the transmission of financial distress across the financial system. This suggests that a macro-prudential approach to financial regulation should focus not only on scaling up micro-prudential measures but also on enabling the efficient transfer of risk between financial institutions.     

Encouraging savings through the life cycle

This paper discusses management of an individual's savings over the life cycle. It introduces the concept of a ‘Lifetime Savings Account’, to provide a coherent framework for organising investments: a ‘one-stop shop’ for all financial needs, encompassing cash, medium- and long-term investments, managing credit card debt, accessing loans, life insurance and keeping an individual's pension entitlements in one place. The paper proposes replacing tax relief with matching saving incentives, which could be administered by the account, and recommends introduction of a fixed-term Individual Savings Account (ISA) with incentives to keep invested for five years and extra incentives to renew or transfer to a pension. Finally, the paper introduces the concept of a ‘Minimum Lifetime Annuity’ which would be sufficient to ensure no need for meanstested benefits, also suggesting it might be sufficient if an individual has adequate capital in the Lifetime Savings Account to be able to purchase such an annuity if necessary, without having actually to effect the transaction.     

Health status and portfolio choice: Is their relationship economically relevant?

Recent empirical work on individual portfolio choice focuses on the role of the individual's health in making financial decisions. The key idea is that, through precautionary saving or reducing investors' time horizon, health issues make people choose safer financial portfolios. This paper questions the empirical relevance of the link between health and portfolio choice, measured as stockownership and overall fraction of risky securities held. We handle with caution the findings from previous papers and ask whether data from the first wave of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) are able to clarify some of our doubts. We find that only poor self-reported health negatively impacts the portfolio choice, while other health measures (chronic conditions, limitations in daily activities of life, mental health) are irrelevant for investment decisions.     

Is Fraud Contagious? Coworker Influence on Misconduct by Financial Advisors

Using a novel data set of U.S. financial advisors that includes individuals' employment histories and misconduct records, we show that coworkers influence an individual's propensity to commit financial misconduct. We identify coworkers' effect on misconduct using changes in coworkers caused by mergers of financial advisory firms. The tests include merger‐firm fixed effects to exploit the variation in changes to coworkers across branches of the same firm. The probability of an advisor committing misconduct increases if his new coworkers, encountered in the merger, have a history of misconduct. This effect is stronger between demographically similar coworkers.     

Investment decisions: The trade-off between economic and environmental objectives

While there are broader socio-political, psychological, and structural factors that influence investment decisions (see Harris et al., 2016), in line with the critical approach, this study provides an empirical insight into the notion that financialization, specifically the tendency to prioritise economic over environmental objectives, has a strong bearing on how managers view investment trade-off decisions in relation to sustainability issues. The study empirically investigates this notion by examining the investment trade–off preferences of Australian managers in relation to three decision attributes – economic outcomes (i.e. financial returns), environmental impact (i.e. carbon emissions) and stakeholder pressure to consider environmental issues. We use the discrete choice experimental method to quantify the trade-offs between the above mentioned three attributes. In addition, we also investigate the potential effect of three contingency factors on individual's preferences. Specifically, at the organisational level, we explore the effects of financial and environmental rewards and at the individual level, we explore the effect of environmental consciousness. In line with the financialization hypotheses our results indicate that managers prioritise financial returns over carbon emissions and stakeholder pressures with the preference for financial returns found to be positively associated with rewards for financial performance. However, in line with the pragmatic approach and despite the overall dominance of financial returns, there is evidence that manager's focus on financial returns can be influenced, with the preference for financial returns negatively associated with rewards for environmental performance and environmental consciousness. In addition, while stakeholder pressure was not found to be associated with any of the three contingency factors and, manager's emphasis on carbon emissions was not associated with financial rewards, manager's emphasis on carbon emissions was found to be positively associated with both rewards for environmental performance and environmental consciousness. Therefore, our findings suggest that corporate management have an important role to play, both in respect to the design of performance rewards systems and the recruitment of environmentally conscious managers, in order to promote the sustainability agenda.     

A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt

Using an integrated model to control for simultaneity, as well as new risk measurement techniques such as Adapted Exposure CoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), we show that the aggregate systemic risk exposure of financial institutions is positively related to sovereign debt yields in European countries in an episodic manner, varying positively with the intensity of the financial crisis facing a particular nation. We find evidence of a simultaneous relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt yields. This suggests that models of sovereign debt yields should also include the systemic risk of a country's financial system in order to avoid potentially important mis-specification errors. We find evidence that systemic risk of a country's financial institutions and the risk of sovereign governments are inter-related and shocks to these domestic linkages are stronger and longer lasting than international risk spillovers. Thus, the channel in which domestic sovereign debt yields can be affected by another nation's sovereign debt is mostly an indirect one in that shocks to a foreign country's government finances are transmitted to that country's financial system which, in turn, can spill over to the domestic financial system and, ultimately, have a destabilizing effect on the domestic sovereign debt market.     

金融行业对实体行业的尾部风险传导研究——基于实体企业金融化视角

本文基于我国金融资本超额回报率的事实,在市场套利分析框架下实证检验了实 体企业金融化是抑制还是加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。数值模拟结果表明：从杠杆率来看,实体 企业金融化对杠杆率具有“双刃剑”效应,然而,实证结果发现,从长期经济后果来看,实体 企业金融化却显著提高了杠杆率,基于Altman-Z值的风险分析进一步发现企业破产风险显著 上升,从而加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。文章的研究结论有利于全面观察实体企业金融化带来的 的实际效果,也揭示了金融行业对实体行业的风险传导过程中的一个风险源,对于实体经济和 金融领域关于企业金融化效应的研究具有参考价值。     

Systemic risk in an interconnected banking system with endogenous asset markets

We analyze the emergence of systemic risk in a network model of interconnected bank balance sheets. The model incorporates multiple sources of systemic risk, including size of financial institutions, direct exposure from interbank lendings, and asset fire sales. We suggest a new macroprudential risk management approach building on a system wide value at risk (SVaR). Under the SVaR metric, the contribution of individual banks to systemic risk is well defined and can be approximated by a Shapley value-type measure. We show that, in a SVaR regime, a fair systemic risk charge which is proportional to a bank's individual contribution to systemic risk diverges from the optimal macroprudential capitalization of the banks from a planner's perspective. The results have implications for the design of macroprudential capital surcharges.     

Effect of cash flow risk on corporate failures,and the moderating role of earnings management and abnormal compensation

In this study, we find that United States firms' average cash flow risk (CFR) shows a significantly increasing trend over the past four decades or so. This does not portend well considering the significance of cash flows in maintaining a firm's financial health and going concern status. The CFR also increases dramatically for firms approaching financial distress or bankruptcy, suggesting its important role in predicting a firm's failure. Empirically, we find that CFR has a strong positive effect on a firm's financial distress likelihood. We also find that the association between CFR and financial distress is negatively moderated in firms with high earnings management and abnormal compensation. The results suggest that managers in firms with high CFR are more likely to use heuristics in form of earnings management. Thus, supporting the upper echelons theory related to managers under performance pressure. Meanwhile, consistent with the notion in the agency theory that financial incentives serve as effective monitoring mechanisms, compensation packages can incentivize better risk management practices and decrease the likelihood of a firm's failure. Our findings are also robust to alternative definitions of a firm's failure: financial constraints, presumed debt covenant violation and legal bankruptcy filings.     

Impact of financial investment on confidence in a happy future retirement

The study examines the impact of financial investment on the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement using data from 735 respondents in the Bank Consortium Holding Limited (BCT) Public Opinion Survey on Retirement Happiness in 2017. The result shows that holding the investment portfolio with savings and risky assets positively and significantly correlates with the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement life. This relationship is more pronounced for those with a positive attitude toward life, better financial literacy, and voluntary contribution to the retirement account. The result is robust after using the propensity score matching (PSM) approach, placebo test, alternative regression model, and the independent variables and control for additional variables. Further analysis shows that the positive relationship between holding the investment portfolio and the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement life is not driven by individuals' income, assets, and location. This paper provides empirical evidence to guide citizens' investments and improve the pension system to cope with the aging population in Hong Kong.     

Biological and Psychobehavioral Correlates of Credit Scores and Automobile Insurance Losses: Toward an Explication of Why Credit Scoring Works

The most important new development in the past two decades in the personal lines of insurance may well be the use of an individual's credit history as a classification and rating variable to predict losses. However, in spite of its obvious success as an underwriting tool, and the clear actuarial substantiation of a strong association between credit score and insured losses over multiple methods and multiple studies, the use of credit scoring is under attack because there is not an understanding of why there is an association. Through a detailed literature review concerning the biological, psychological, and behavioral attributes of risky automobile drivers and insured losses, and a similar review of the biological, psychological, and behavioral attributes of financial risk takers, we delineate that basic chemical and psychobehavioral characteristics (e.g., a sensation‐seeking personality type) are common to individuals exhibiting both higher insured automobile loss costs and poorer credit scores, and thus provide a connection which can be used to understand why credit scoring works. Credit scoring can give information distinct from standard actuarial variables concerning an individual's biopsychological makeup, which then yields useful underwriting information about how they will react in creating risk of insured automobile losses.     

An examination of the factors influencing Yemeni Bank users’ behavioural intention to use Internet banking services

The purpose of this study was to examine the potential prominent factors relating to the adoption and use of the financial services of Internet banking (IB). The study was carried out using a self-administered survey involving a convenience sample of 369 Yemeni bank customers. The survey revealed that the overall prominent predictors include Relative Advantage/Compatibility, User's Informational-Based Readiness, Attitude, Observability, Technology Facilitating Condition, Perceived Behavioural Control and Self-efficacy. The model accounted for 75 per cent of the variation of an individual's behavioural intention to use IB. In addition, it was also discovered that a majority of the respondents are innovators and early adopters of IB. Yet, the adoption of IB financial service is still relatively low.     

Securitization and systemic risk: An empirical investigation on Italian banks over the financial crisis

This research examines the effects of securitization on the bank's risk exposure both in terms of individual expected shortfall and marginal expected shortfall as a measure of systemic risk. The relationship between securitization activity and tail risks is especially relevant in light of the consequences for financial stability, both for the individual securitizing banks and for the market as a whole, as the financial crisis 2007–2008 reveals. By using a sample of Italian listed banks over the period 2000–2009, we find that securitizing banks have, on average, higher expected losses in case of extreme events. This adds new evidence on the main findings in the literature that focused on the evidence that risk transfer through securitization is relatively insignificant compared to the risk retained by the originating bank. We show that this risk retention is in terms of an increase of tail risk. We also find that securitization increases the probability of banks to become “systemically” riskier, but we find no difference when comparing the pre-crisis with the post-crisis period. This suggests that the systemic exposures of Italian banks are still as high as before the crisis with severe implications for financial stability.     

Should the insurance industry be banking on risk escalation for solvency II?

Basel II introduced a three pillar approach which concentrated upon new capital ratios (Pillar I), new supervisory procedures (Pillar II) and demanded better overall disclosure to ensure effective market discipline and transparency. Importantly, it introduced operational risk as a standalone area of the bank which for the first time was required to be measured, managed and capital allocated to calculated operational risks. Concurrently, Solvency II regulation in the insurance industry was also re-imagining regulations within the insurance industry and also developing operational risk measures. Given that Basel II was first published in 2004 and Solvency II was set to go live in January 2014. This paper analyses the strategic challenges of Basel II in the UK banking sector and then uses the results to inform a survey of a major UK insurance provider. We report that the effectiveness of Basel II was based around: the reliance upon people for effective decision making; the importance of good training for empowerment of staff; the importance of Board level engagement; and an individual's own world view and perceptions influenced the adoption of an organizational risk culture. We then take the findings to inform a survey utilizing structural equation modelling to analyze risk reporting and escalation in a large UK insurance company. The results indicate that attitude and uncertainty significantly affect individual's intention to escalate operational risk and that if not recognized by insurance companies and regulators will hinder the effectiveness of Solvency II implementation.     

Household financial planning and savings behavior

Greater personal responsibility toward financial decision-making is being advocated on a global basis. Individuals and households are encouraged to take a more active approach to personal finance. In this paper, we examine behavioral factors, which lead households toward savings and financial planning across a panel of 1253 Dutch households. In line with the available literature, we find that an individual's propensity to save decreases with age and is higher among the financial literate. Moreover, we find that saving behavior varies across generations, and is significantly dominant among baby boomers. This generation effect, however, weakens once we account for more individual specifics. Our results offer evidence for parental influence, and for the effects of the psychological and behavioral metrics of numeracy, self-efficacy, locus of control and future orientation. A good understanding of these personality variables helps to explain why some take financial responsibility while others do not.     

Ethical Profit: An Agenda for Consolidation or for Radical Change?

The article considers that conceptual frameworks exist not to portray truth as an absolute, but rather to provide order and guidance to actions and behavior. From such perspective, the article considers that ethical frameworks assist in our attempt to balance the instinct that we have to look out for our own individual welfare with the conscience of obligation that we have to care for a wider community. In this light, the development of ethical frameworks may be interpreted in terms of a process of natural selection with regard to the mutual interdependence of the individual and the community. Thereby, the article argues that corporate and financial ethics do not exist ``to do good'', but rather to act reflexively to *I$Lconsolidate$L and *I$Lsanction$L internal activity, with the consequence that the employee is called on to be ethical not on the individual's own terms, but on the profit- motivated terms of the institution. The net outcome is that institutionalized activity may be co-ordinated to function under the banner of ethical codes of practice, while broader ethical issues for the institution as a whole remain suppressed. We illustrate these arguments with reference to the financial ethics of the Grameen Bank of Professor Muhammad Yunus. Notwithstanding, the example holds out the possibility that ethical concerns for the whole of society might ultimately be compatible with the profit motives of our institutionalised society.     

Increasing return response to changes in risk

Risk aversion theory is based on an individual's choice among risky assets with expected utility in its foundation. It is about investor behavior (i.e., investor choice), under normal circumstances, toward assets with various levels of risk. A positive and marginally diminishing relationship between risk and return exists. This study is about investor behavior related to their response (not choice) to risk. We present an argument and supporting evidence that investors’ return response to risk is increasing with the level of risk. Thus, investor behavior is subject to change and the level of risk is a determinant of such change. We also explain the negative time‐series correlation between risk and return.     

The medium is the message: Learning channels,financial literacy,and stock market participation

This paper investigates the effects of learning channels on stock market participation. More specifically, we investigate the direct effects of learning about financial matters from one's private network, financial advisors, and the media, as well as the moderating effects of financial literacy on the relationship between learning from these channels and stock market participation. Analyzing a unique cross-section data that combine survey data and bank register data on individual retail investors, we find that media is the only learning channel that increases the likelihood of owning stocks and the portfolio share invested in stocks. We also find that financial literacy has a significant moderating effect: Interactions point to the joint importance of learning from media and financial literacy for individuals' stock market participation. Our findings suggest implications to policymakers when designing financial education programs.     

The individual's tax-exempt bond portfolio decision under income uncertainty

In this article, an individual's tax-exempt bond portfolio decision is investigated. A model capturing the relationship between income uncertainty and optimal portfolio choice is defined when an individual decision-maker has the opportunity to hold higher yielding private-activity bonds. The findings in this article show that in most cases risk-averse individuals will maximize the expected utility of after-tax income by holding a large proportion of private-activity bonds in their portfolio even under income uncertainty and the risk of a minimum tax liability. Those individuals who would benefit from holding private-activity bonds in a tax-exempt portfolio are identified and the magnitude of the benefit is quantified.     

Openness,financial structure,and bank risk: International evidence

Using panel data from a large cross-country sample covering 97 countries over the period 1996–2017, we combine 2SLS procedure with system GMM estimation to study the relationship between openness, financial structure and bank risk. The main contribution of the paper is that we identified a new channel, i.e. the financial structure channel, through which financial openness reduces bank risk. In particular, we find that as financial openness increases, a country's financial system tends to be more market-based, and a more market-based financial system is associated with higher bank market power, better information sharing and more revenue diversification, all of which contribute to the reduction in bank risk. We also find that the effect of inflow restrictions on bank risk is more pronounced than that of outflow restrictions. These results highlight the importance of an appropriate design of a country's opening-up strategy to match the evolution of its financial structure to increase bank stability.