The disposition effect in team investment decisions: Experimental evidence

This paper experimentally studies the disposition effects of teams and individuals. The disposition effect describes the phenomenon that investors are reluctant to realize losses, whereas winners are sold too early. Our experiments compare the investments of two-person teams to a setting where investors trade alone. We find that subjects investing jointly exhibit more pronounced disposition effects than individuals. A closer look reveals that investor teams hardly realize losses and predominately sell winners. The data suggest that decision-dependent emotions may explain the differences. That is, teams reporting high levels of regret exhibit significantly higher disposition effects than individuals.     

Determinants of individual investment decisions in investment‐based crowdfunding

We investigate determinants of investment decisions in investment‐based (equity and bond) crowdfunding campaigns, using a novel investment‐, investor‐ and campaign‐level database, where equity refers to investments in entrepreneurial start‐ups and bonds to large real estate projects. We find that investors who have higher social interactions invest more. Social interactions are important in an equity crowdfunding context but do not affect participation in bond investments. This is consistent with the view that investors' social networks help reduce information asymmetry. Women invest less in the riskiest (equity) investments but more in safer ones (bonds). These findings are better explained by differences in risk aversion than differences in overconfidence between men and women. Overall, the findings contribute to the understanding of how investment‐based crowdfunding can be a viable source of entrepreneurial finance and how entrepreneurs' campaign decisions affect investor participation in this new form of entrepreneurial finance.     

The angel investment decision: insights from Australian business angels

While much has been written about the investment criteria of business angels, few studies explore why these particular criteria are important to them. The Australian context has a diverse range of actors along with complex jurisdictional arrangements, making for an interesting background for investigation of the angel finance phenomenon. We examine 12 business angels in the rapidly changing Australian context and use nine corroborating participants to validate responses and identify four key drivers – personal experience, trust, the need to contribute and realistic expectations – that influence business angels during the initial investment process.     

The decision game: a serious game approach to understanding environmental risk management decisions

Abstract

Here we describe the implementation of an experimental research tool called the Decision Game that we used to collect data on household flood risk management decisions. Participants using this tool play an interactive game that involves making household decisions about place of residence and a variety of household expenditures, including spending on flood insurance and private flood risk mitigation. Participants also answer survey questions before and after playing the game; the pre-game survey collected demographic information, and the post-game survey collected information about participant experiences with flooding and flood mitigation. Online and face-to-face participants showed similar engagement with the experiment, and most participants appeared to have made deliberate and considered decisions about risk mitigation. Online study participants had similar responses to those who participated in person, although face-to-face participants seemed slightly more likely to mitigate against risk. Overall, participants in this research were younger, more educated and more likely to rent a home than the average Canadian. Serious games may be useful for augmenting existing data gathering strategies used in understanding environmental decision making, particularly for rare catastrophic events for which stated preference surveys may be less informative. Serious games allow for sharing a mixture of information with study participants, including maps, video clips, text and even immersive 3D experiences, and can be administered online to increase participation levels. Future research will consider longer duration online experiments and more immersive interaction frameworks.     

Entrepreneurship and household portfolio choice: Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey

The efficient allocation of household assets is important for household wealth and entrepreneurial activities. However, there is scarce evidence on how entrepreneurial activities influence household financial decisions. We use a simple model to characterize the impact of entrepreneurship on household portfolio choice and the two underlying channels—the diversification effect and the risk substitution effect. We also empirically examine the impact of entrepreneurship using data from the 2013, 2015, and 2017 waves of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The empirical results show that entrepreneurship significantly decreases both household risky market participation and risky asset holding. These findings are robust to alternative measurements of key variables, different model specifications, and Lewbel’s two-stage estimators. This study also verifies the co-existence of both the diversification and risk substitution effects. In particular, the net effect of entrepreneurship on household portfolio choice varies between urban and rural areas due to the different offsetting results between the two effects.     

Displaying expected values in risk elicitation tasks: the effect of information in experimental risk research

We investigate the influence of providing expected lottery results to experiment participants in two common risk attitude elicitation tasks. In a between-subject design, either the Holt and Laury task or the Eckel and Grossman task is carried out by a sample of 208 students. We find no significant effect of shown expected values on the risk attitude measured by the tasks. This result even holds true if we divide the experiment participants into specific sub-groups, i.e. female and male, or lower numeracy and higher numeracy participants. Furthermore, comprehension and processing time are not significantly influenced by presented expected values. Therefore, we conclude that providing information on expected values does not influence decision-making in tasks involving risk. This result indicates the robustness of elicited risk attitudes to variation in common experimental methods, and demonstrates that more information could be provided without creating bias in the results.     

Social and solidarity finance: A conceptual approach

An analysis of the social- and solidarity-finance system of relationships, which has characteristics that differ from those of other financial intermediaries, underpins the conceptual approach of this article. Social and solidarity finance constitutes a set of interdependent financial and social relationships, and partnerships between individuals and organisations, that mesh into an organised whole.This article makes use of institutional economics to understand those mechanisms of interaction between individuals, organisations and institutions that are not strictly economic. First, we offer a new conceptual framework on social and solidarity finance from an institutional point of view. Then, based on this framework, we outline the sustainability of alternative finance and its ability to respond to specific entrepreneurship needs. Finally, we present the French situation regarding social and solidarity finance to highlight the main characteristics of alternative finance.     

Analyzing firms' strategic investment decisions in a real options' framework

Within the context of investment under uncertainty, the real options literature has led to models that capture primarily the time to wait flexibility of monopolistic corporations' investment decision. In this paper, we propose an approach which relies on barrier options to model production and/or sales delocalization flexibility for multinational enterprises making decisions under exchange rate uncertainty. We then extend the model by introducing game theoretic considerations to show how the information set and the competitive structure of the market may lead firms to act strategically and exercise their delocalization options preemptively at an endogenously fixed exchange rate barrier.     

Portfolio allocation and the investment horizon: a multiscaling approach

A new approach is proposed for analysing portfolio allocation over various time scales. This new approach is based on wavelet analysis, which decomposes a given time series on a scale-by-scale basis. Empirical results indicate that, as the investment horizon lengthens, a greater weighting should be allocated to stocks. An explanation for this result is that the mean-reverting property of stock returns causes investors to perceive that stocks are less risky than bonds and T-bills at longer time scales compared with shorter time scales. When we include the effect of risk aversion, it is found that the higher the risk aversion, the less the Sharpe ratio, indicating that a more conservative investor prefers a smoother consumption stream.     

When You Know Your Neighbour Pays Taxes: Information,Peer Effects and Tax Compliance

In this paper, we suggest that individuals’ tax compliance behaviours are affected by the behaviour of their ‘neighbours’, or those about whom they may have information, whom they may know, or with whom they may interact on a regular basis. Individuals are more likely to file and to report their taxes when they believe that other individuals are also filing and reporting their taxes; conversely, when individuals believe that others are cheating on their taxes, they may well become cheaters themselves. We use experimental methods to test the role of such information about peer effects on compliance behaviour. In one treatment setting, we inform individuals about the frequency that their neighbours submit a tax return. In a second treatment setting, we inform them about the number of their neighbours who are audited, together with the penalties that they pay. In both cases, we examine the impact of information on filing behaviour and also on subsequent reporting behaviour. We find that providing information on whether one's neighbours are filing returns and/or reporting income has a statistically significant and economically large impact on individual filing and reporting decisions. However, this ‘neighbour’ information does not always improve compliance, depending on the exact content of the information.     

Optimal life insurance with no-borrowing constraints: duality approach and example

We solve an optimal portfolio choice problem under a no-borrowing assumption. A duality approach is applied to study a family’s optimal consumption, optimal portfolio choice, and optimal life insurance purchase when the family receives labor income that may be terminated due to the wage earner’s premature death or retirement. We establish the existence of an optimal solution to the optimization problem theoretically by the duality approach and we provide an explicitly solved example with numerical illustration. Our results illustrate that the no-borrowing constraints do not always impact the family’s optimal decisions on consumption, portfolio choice, and life insurance. When the constraints are binding, there must exist a wealth depletion time (WDT) prior to the retirement date, and the constraints indeed reduce the optimal consumption and the life insurance purchase at the beginning of time. However, the optimal consumption under the constraints will become larger than that without the constraints at some time later than the WDT.     

How information systems influence user decisions: a research framework and literature review

Technology has created new information alternatives that may influence the way information system users make decisions. This paper proposes a research framework for examining how features of an information system affect the decision-making process. The framework is synthesized by merging frameworks from the accounting information systems (AIS) literature and the human information processing (HIP) literature. The framework is then used to organize a literature review of 15 journals from 1987 through mid-1999, which identified 57 decision-making studies. Findings indicate that a wide range of opportunities is available for information systems research on issues of contemporary importance. This discussion includes changes in the decision process initiated by implementing enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems, data warehouses, electronic commerce, virtual organizations, on-line financial reporting, and disaggregated financial statement information.     

Saving behaviour under terms-of-trade uncertainty: evidence from hidden cointegration approach

There are very few studies on the asymmetric relationship between private saving (PS) and terms-of-trade uncertainty. This paper examines the extent to which terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on PSs in 18 Latin American countries (LACs) over the period 1970–2012. By using the recently developed hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood-based panel framework and panel-error–correction technique, the results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between PS and terms-of-trade volatility. It has found some support for the view that the PS ratios have responded asymmetrically to the terms-of-trade variability as an indicator of risk and income uncertainty. The findings of this study confirm that behavioural factors, particularly loss aversion as developed through prospect theory, influence PS patterns.     

社会养老保险与我国居民家庭风险金融资产投资——来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的证据

本文基于2011年中国家庭金融调查数据,考察了社会养老保险对家庭风险金融资产投资的影响。研究发现:拥有社会养老保险会显著提高家庭持有风险金融资产的可能性和风险金融资产比重,边际效应分别达到25%和22%左右。这一结果在控制了家庭的经济水平、人口统计学特征和主观投资风险偏好态度等因素后依旧稳健,一个解释是社会养老保险能有效地降低未来的不确定性。我们进一步分城镇家庭和农村家庭的子样本研究发现,养老保险对家庭风险资产投资的影响在农村很小且统计不显著,这说明新型农村养老保险的养老保障水平和拉动金融消费的作用仍有待提高。     

Knowledge-based management support: an application of diagnostic reasoning to corporate financing decisions

The corporate finance application domain is studied as part of designing a diagnostic decision support system (DSS) for analyzing the financial ‘health’ of a modern corporation. A conceptual model of the financial management application domain is developed to capture the inherent interactions among financial domain objects. We view the objective of financial management to be to maintain a balance among financial performance measures, such as profitability, liquidity, dividend policy, and capital structure. We represent knowledge regarding these performance measures together with the related financial accounting data. A high-level structure to the diagnostic reasoning process is introduced via a classification scheme that identifies the relevant problem categories. The proposed approach supports the interpretation of domain relationships when formulating corrective measures. More importantly, it provides proactive management support by facilitating the analysis of domain facts for probable contingencies. The approach is illustrated with examples. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How information and communication technology affects decision‐making on innovation diffusion: An agent‐based modelling approach

We introduce a computational agent‐based model of innovation diffusion that allows us to analyse the influence of information and communication technology (ICT) development on decision‐making. Model dynamics are based on local emulation between pairs of individuals that generate an evolving social network on which an innovation is virally spread (by word of mouth). Results suggest that ICT development affects the data usefulness for decision‐making by changing the topology of the social network (the means whereby the innovation is propagated). Paradoxically, a higher level of ICT development (providing a larger volume of data) narrows the differences between better and worse launch strategies, thus reducing data‐driven decision‐making usefulness, which then shows diminishing returns on the ICT level.     

Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk

We show that predictable covariances between means and variances of stock returns may have a first order effect on portfolio composition. In an international asset menu that includes both European and North American small capitalization equity indices, we find that a three-state, heteroskedastic regime switching VAR model is required to provide a good fit to weekly return data and to accurately predict the dynamics in the joint density of returns. As a result of the non-linear dynamic features revealed by the data, small cap portfolios become riskier in bear markets, i.e., display negative co-skewness with other stock indices. Because of this property, a power utility investor ought to hold a well-diversified portfolio, despite the high risk premium and Sharpe ratios offered by small capitalization stocks. On the contrary, small caps command large optimal weights when the investor ignores variance risk, by incorrectly assuming joint normality of returns.      

Tax Evasion and Equity Theory: An Investigative Approach

Traditional economic theory assumes rational individuals with stable preferences who, given an array of options and probabilities, maximize their expected utility. However, experimental research finds that individuals make systematic mistakes when attempting to maximize their expected utility. The economic psychology approach includes aspects of the traditional economic approach and the psychological approach that emphasizes values, attitudes, norms, conformity and morals.This paper investigates equity theory and tax evasion using the framework of prospect theory pioneered by Tversky and Kahneman. We design an investigation to identify if individual behavior follows the usual results of prospect theory, given a scenario that frames a perception of inequity. The investigation frames a scenario to invoke a controlled tax regime. The frame varies according to which inequity is being measured, exchange or social. Once the scenario is established, a questionnaire is designed to determine how the individual responds when filing taxes. The responses to the control questions are consistent with prospect theory. However, in general the responses to the framed questions, depicting inequity, are more consistent with expected utility theory.     

Analysis of foreign investment impact on the dynamics of national capitalization structure: A computational intelligence approach

Central and Eastern Europe countries are in the political and economic transitional process of merging with the European Union. How has foreign investment already transformed these countries’ economic sectors and how will it affect the national economies in terms of capitalization across economic sectors in the near future? Our prime consideration is portfolio investment impact on the dynamics of respective countries’ capitalization structure in terms of sectorial investment distribution. The proposed method rests on the artificial intelligence approach (neural network method), which is targeted to grasp non-linear dynamics of heterogeneous foreign investment impact on national capitalization structure.