Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?

This article uses a small set of variables – real GDP, the inflation rate and the short-term interest rate – and a rich set of models – atheoretical (time series) and theoretical (structural), linear and nonlinear, as well as classical and Bayesian models – to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the US real GDP. Comparing the performance of the models to the benchmark random-walk model by root mean-square errors, the two structural (theoretical) models, especially the nonlinear model, perform well on average across all forecast horizons in our ex post, out-of-sample forecasts, although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear atheoretical models perform the best. The nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante, out-of-sample forecast of the Great Recession, suggesting that developing forward-looking, microfounded, nonlinear, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.     

Gender Differences in Education in a Dynamic Household Bargaining Model

We explore the issue of gender differences in education in the context of a two-sex overlapping generations model where men and women of each generation bargain over consumption, number of children, and investment in education of their children. We show that the gender difference implied by our model is smaller than the one that would result from a pure investment model. We use our model to estimate the cost to a woman of having a child. The estimate we obtain is about 5% of the working lifetime of a woman.     

A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data. The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response. We consider static models with random and fixed individual effects. We also look at a dynamic random effects model which includes a measure for permanent and transitory income. We find that income change expectations strongly depend on realized income changes in the past: those whose income fell, are more pessimistic than others, while those whose income rose are more optimistic. Expected income changes are also significantly affected by employment status, family composition, permanent income, and past expectations. Expectations are then compared to the head of household’s ex post perception of the realized income change for the same period. The main finding is that rational expectations are rejected, and that in particular, households whose income has decreased in the past underestimate their future income growth.     

Household Management Systems and Women’s Decision Making Within the Family in Europe

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes household management systems and their effect on intrahousehold gender differences in decision making in thirty European countries. The study considers five domains that reflect two types of decisions – time-consuming and frequent decisions like everyday shopping versus infrequent but important decisions like borrowing money or purchasing consumer durables. In time-consuming activities, the gender gap favors women in each system; for infrequent decisions, the gender gap is dependent on the way money is managed and the biggest gap is found in systems where resources are not pooled. This paper also investigates the role of distribution factors in shaping decision-making behavior. For time-consuming decisions, the higher the income (and education) of the woman compared to the man, the less likely she is to make the decisions. For infrequent activities, the higher the income of the woman compared to the man, the more likely she is to make the decisions.     

Prices for cash and cash for prices? Theory and evidence on convenient pricing

A transaction between a seller and a buyer incurs a payment cost. The payment cost is borne by the seller, depending on the payment instrument the buyer chooses, cash or card. Card payment is more costly than cash payment, so the seller prefers that the buyer pays cash. In this article, we study the strategy of the seller setting a convenient price, which simplifies transactions and pushes the buyer to pay cash. The theoretical analysis, which models both the seller and the buyer in a game setting, derives two propositions: (1) the seller is more likely to set a more convenient price and (2) the buyer is more likely to pay cash a more convenient price. The empirical analysis supports both propositions. Thus, sellers adopt a convenience pricing strategy – prices for cash – and this strategy pushes buyers to pay cash – cash for prices.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

This article explains how economic analysis can be applied to understand environmental problems and to suggest appropriate policies to deal with these problems. Economic analysis is performed using static and dynamic models, and one‐person and several‐person game theoretical models. Policy recommendations include the control of industrial pollution in China and the regulation of world CO₂ emission through the application of a resolution by the United Nations.     

Gender earnings inequality in the service and manufacturing industries in the U.S.

This paper compares earnings inequality between women and men in a growing sector of the U.S. economy – the service sector, and a shrinking sector – manufacturing. We examine the hypothesis that deindustrialization will reduce inequality, and find that the absolute magnitude of the gender earnings gap is, in fact, smaller in the service sector. Decomposition analysis is used to partition the gender earnings gap into three parts: (1) earnings differences due to differences in mean characteristics – such as education and experience; (2) earnings differences due to preferential treatment of men; and (3) earnings differences due to disadvantageous treatment of women. The latter two constitute estimates of gender discrimination. The results of this study suggest that, ceteris paribus, deirndustrialization will likely reduce the gender gap in hourly earnings. However, this will come at the cost of lower earnings for both males and females, with the drop in earnings being particularly large for males. While deindustrialization is predicted to reduce the absolute magnitude of male-female earnings inequality, evidence suggests that gender discrimination will persist – discrimination explains about 60 percent of the gender wage gap in both the service and the manufacturing sectors.     

Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models

This paper extends probit recession forecasting models by incorporating various recession risk factors and using the advanced dynamic probit modeling approaches. The proposed risk factors include financial market expectations of a gloomy economic outlook, credit or liquidity risks in the general economy, the risks of negative wealth effects resulting from the bursting of asset price bubbles, and signs of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. The model specifications include three different dynamic probit models and the standard static model. The out-of-sample analysis suggests that the four probit models with the proposed risk factors can generate more accurate forecasts for the duration of recessions than the conventional static models with only yield spread and equity price index as the predictors. Among the four probit models, the dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models outperform the static and autoregressive models in terms of predicting the recession duration. With respect to forecasting the business cycle turning points, the static probit model is as good as the dynamic probit models by being able to flag an early warning signal of a recession.     

Income splitting, specialization, and intra-family distribution

Abstract Income splitting for tax purposes results in more specialization of wives, but does this in turn generate more gender inequality? In my dynamic bargaining model with a divorce threatpoint, I find that who controls the couple's labour supply plays a crucial role in establishing this link. If spouses choose their labour supply non‐cooperatively, only the husband's increase – but not her own decrease – in labour supply introduces a negative term in the wife's change in welfare. If the wife does not control her own labour supply, a decrease in her own labour supply introduces an additional negative term.     

Impulse response analysis in a misspecified DSGE model: a comparison of full and limited information techniques

In this article, we examine the effect of estimation biases – introduced by model misspecification – on the impulse responses analysis for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Thereby, we use full and limited information estimators to estimate a misspecified DSGE model and calculate impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the estimated structural parameters. It turns out that IRFs based on full information techniques can be unreliable under misspecification.     

A Comparison of Four Macroeconometric Models of the Australian Economy*

For more than a decade, macroeconometric models have been used in Australia as tools in policy analysis and as aids in the task of forecasting major economic variables. Until recently, however, not much work had been done in comparing these models. Challen and Hagger (1979a, 1979b) provide a useful introduction to existing Australian models which includes a summary of simulation studies previously undertaken with these models. In the current paper, the economic content of four of these models is summarized in a simple theoretical framework. Simulation analysis is also used to examine the dynamic adjustment mechanisms associated with the theoretical structure of each model. A general conclusion of this paper is that more work is needed on model evaluation in Australia, based on a wider range of criteria than have been used in the past.     

The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency

Abstract We decompose the correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate in its dynamic components at different frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques, we show that, at odds with a high degree of risk sharing, in most OECD countries the dynamic correlation tends to be quite negative, and significantly so, at frequencies lower than two years – the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation over different frequencies predicted by standard open economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative when uninsurable risk is large; a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. Numerical analysis suggests that leading mechanisms proposed by the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence across the spectrum.     

THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN SVAR MODELS: A GRAPHICAL MODELLING APPROACH

We apply graphical modelling (GM) theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches – which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions – GM is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) , and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks confirm that our findings are not driven by sample selection.     

Land Use Change with Spatially Explicit Data: A Dynamic Approach

Most of the economic literature that uses spatially-explicit data to estimate the determinants of land-use change is limited to static models and cross-sectional data sets. Recent attempts to move to a more dynamic analysis include using panel data sets and survival analysis. In this study, we use a discrete choice dynamic model of land-use where the agent’s choices are regarded as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem. The irreversibility of some decisions, expectations about future prices, and forward-looking behavior of the land operator can all be accounted for. Our results show that a model specification that incorporates some of the complexities of the decision process improves upon results found in the existing literature. First, prediction accuracy of land use change is superior to any of the existing models. Second, we demonstrate that models that do not account for transactions costs tend to overestimate the effects of changes in transportation costs.     

Gender Employment Disparities,Financialization, and Profitability Dynamics on the Eve of Italy's Post-2008 Crisis

This study explores aggregate profitability in Italy from 1994 to 2008 in its connection with structural change and gender employment disparities. Using decomposition analysis, the study finds that aggregate profit rate declined, but the profit share did not. Male variables – such as earnings, output, employment, and working hours – tended to have more weight than female ones in explaining aggregate outcomes. Structural change also played a major role, as the economy specialized in sectors with falling real wages and wage shares, especially the financial sector and construction. Further falls in the wage share and widening wage gaps may not guarantee a rise in profitability. This result entails that “neo-mercantilist” approaches to solve the crisis might only prepare the next crisis, while a coordinated expansion of demand could be more successful. Moreover, gender issues should not be neglected in terms of favoring women's employment and entrepreneurship.     

Empirical Evidence on the Relationship between Mobile Termination Rates and Firms' Profits

The theoretical literature on mobile termination rates (MTRs) is inconclusive on how the level of MTRs affects overall consumer charges and firms' profits. We show that when firms offer bundles with fixed included usage – a tariff structure that has become more common in recent years – an identical change in all MTRs does not affect firms' retail prices or profits. We use a panel dataset from saturated European markets to estimate the effect of MTRs on mobile operators' profits. As predicted by the theoretical model, we cannot reject the fact that firms' profits are unaffected by an identical change in all MTRs.     

The Balassa-Samuelson Model: an Overview*

This paper introduces a special issue marking the thirtieth anniversary of the publication of two classic papers in international economics, Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964). We provide a brief analytical treatment of the basic model and an overview of the contributions in this special issue. the special issue includes novel empirical and theoretical approaches related to the Balassa-Samuelson model. Theoretical models include dynamic two-sector growth models, two-country general-equilibrium models, and openeconomy models with imperfectly competitive nontraded-goods sectors. Several papers exploit new sources of data or datasets constructed in new ways from traditional sources. “Under the skin of any international economist lies a deep-seated belief in some variant of the PPP theory of exchange rates.” (Rudiger Dornbusch and Paul Krugman, 1976, p. 540)     

Controlling inflation in Euroland

The experience with the two pillar strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) suggests that at some point in the future the ECB may have to commit to one of the more traditional policy strategies – a direct inflation target or an intermediate monetary target. This study offers some information on the scale of control and indicator problems associated with both strategies. We estimate the links between monetary policy actions and inflation in dynamic linear models with the Kalman filter. Using European M3 that the ECB has published, it is found that the overall control problems involved in targeting money are larger than for direct inflation targets.     

New structural economics meets European transition

This paper explores whether new structural economics, and more broadly Structuralist approaches, could add to our understanding of transition in Central and Eastern Europe – and ultimately asks whether new structural economics and transition economics might be extended or integrated into a dynamic model of structural transformation that could better account for this particular development experience and provide policy guidance for the future. We have presented three perspectives – new structural economics, transition economics and the Neo-Schumpetarian approach – all of them emphasising different aspects of structural transformation. Their relative explanatory power depends on the context – for example, the extent of distortions in the economy, the quality of the institutions and where a country finds itself relative to the world technology frontier – and the questions we are interested in understanding. We suggest that, to date, the Neo-Schumpetarian approach offers the most promising and persuasive story line to think about this difficult challenge.     

Monitoring Job Offer Decisions,Punishments, Exit to Work,and Job Quality

Unemployment insurance systems include the monitoring of unemployed workers and punitive sanctions if job search requirements are violated. We analyze the causal effect of sanctions on the ensuing job quality, notably on wages and occupational level. We use Swedish data and estimate duration models dealing with selection on unobservables. We also develop a theoretical job search model that monitors job offer rejection versus job search effort. The empirical results show that, after a sanction, the wage rate is lower and individuals move more often to a part‐time job and a lower occupational level, incurring human capital losses.