The ‘Global Food Crisis’ and the Geopolitics of Food Security

Growing anxieties over food security have recently brought sharp geopolitical overtones to debates about the agro-food sector. Contending that this ‘geopolitical moment’ highlights the mutually constitutive nature of geopolitics and political economies of food, we examine how dominant geopolitical framings of food security extend and deepen neoliberal models of agro-food provisioning, and highlight the need for further attention to these dynamics from political geographers. We develop a preliminary research agenda for further work in the field, focusing on the recent spate of global farmland acquisitions, questions of agro-food governance, the securitisation of hunger and obesity, and the environmental impacts of dominant agro-food systems. Throughout, we highlight the value of a counter-geopolitics of food security for re-situating agro-food politics outside hegemonic policies and institutions, and of the alter-geopolitics of food pursued by communities embodying concrete alternative food production and consumption systems.     

Empirical Regularities of Financial Market Volatility and Good Modelling Process: Developing Countries’ Exchange Rate Markets Perspective

A survey of contemporary literature suggests that empirical studies on developing economies are few or almost non-existent. Engle and Patton (2001, What good is a volatility model. Quantitative Finance, 1, 237–245) as well as Poon (2005, A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility. New Jersey: Wiley.) suggest that a good volatility model is one that utilizes the empirical regularities of financial market volatility (of which most were observed on industrialized economies markets). This paper uses exchange rate series from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania to show that;

1. they are not different from other financial markets as they exhibit most of the empirical regularities including volatility sign asymmetry, non-normal distribution and volatility clustering. It is however observed that the three exchange rate series are very volatile, with induced volatile shocks highly persistent and asymmetric, and extreme prices commonplace;

2. the ARCH technique (which has been well documented to capture these empirical regularities and produce good forecasts) generally produced a good fit to the three exchange rate series when compared with volatility forecasts generated using the EWMA technique. In the simple analysis of a day-ahead volatility forecast abilities of estimated models, it was observed that best fit does not necessarily ensure best forecast.

     

Global Defeminization? Industrial Upgrading and Manufacturing Employment in Developing Countries

Globalization has for decades been associated with a rise in the female share of employment or feminization. This study finds that since the mid 1980s, export growth in developing countries is associated with feminization in some countries and a defeminization in others. Focusing on Southeast Asia and Latin America, it uses a fixed-effects econometric model to test whether the technological conditions of production (labor or capital intensity) rather than export growth account for shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing. It finds that the capital intensity of production, evidenced by shifts in labor productivity, is negatively and significantly related to shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing, while exports are statistically insignificant. The study concludes that an anti-female bias exists in labor demand changes that result from output or employment shifts in developing countries when manufacturing becomes more capital intensive, a process likely related to industrial upgrading.     

Developing Countries’ Net-migration: The Impact of Economic Opportunities,Disasters, Conflicts,and Political Instability

We provide regressions for the net immigration flows of developing countries. We show that (i) savings finance emigration and worker remittances serve to make staying rather than migrating possible; (ii) lagged dependent migration flows have a negative sign in the presence of migration stock variables; (iii) stocks of migrants in six OECD countries and in the developing countries have non-linear effects. Some of the non-linear effects of the economic variables vanish if indicators for disasters, conflicts and political instability are taken into account but new ones come in for these latter variables.     

Why Crisis Continue?——The Endogenous Reason of Financial Crisis and Evolution to the Debt Crisis and the Enlightenment

当前欧债危机越演越烈,需要重新思考金融危机爆发并且演化为主权债务危机的内生性根源.此次金融危机中,资本主义社会的基本矛盾是危机发生的制度性根源.这一矛盾外化为“相对过剩”.经济机制层面,新自由主义影响下的自由市场经济体制放大了市场经济固有的缺陷,为危机的爆发积累了机制性原因.微观市场层面,缺乏金融监管、不当的房地产和货币政策则是诱发危机的直接原因.高赤字和高负债的背景下,一些国内经济和社会矛盾突出的国家发生主权债务危机是金融危机深化的必然结果.处理好自由市场经济和规制市场经济、金融创新和金融监管、实体经济和虚拟经济的关系以及地方债务问题是此次金融和债务危机给我国的最大启示.     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

Money and the ‘Level Playing Field’: The Epistemic Problem of European Financial Market Integration

ABSTRACT

Financial market integration processes in the European Union (EU) are characterised by an epistemic problem of economic theory. This problem encompasses what ‘the market’ is, how it is to be ‘integrated’, and the nature and role of ‘money’ as infrastructure of the fully integrated market. The EU’s legal framework has imported this epistemic problem along with the competitive conception of the market as described in economic theory – as a ‘level playing field’ for private exchange, under free, fair and ideally unrestrained competition. It manifests itself in European financial market integration processes, as exemplified in the article, via two otherwise disconnected areas of European Central Bank (ECB) activity: (a) the provision of central bank credit for the purpose of financial transaction settlement in the Eurozone; and (b) the conduct of ordinary monetary policy in the Eurozone. While the problem can be stabilised through legal, technical and other means, it remains latent, and may manifest itself again in unexpected ways, as happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, contrary to ideologies that are widely understood as more or less coherent systems of doctrines, epistemic problems are characterised by specific tensions, contradictions and conceptual uncertainties.     

The ‘Rise of the South’: Global Convergence at Last?

This article offers a political economy review of the literatures and the empirical evidence concerning the ‘Rise of the South’. The study focuses on global convergence (in the long-term, in the last 30 years, and in the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis), economic decoupling between developing and advanced economies, and the economic strategies which may help catching-up, especially the ‘flying geese’ paradigm and industrial policies supporting manufacturing sector growth. It shows that the mainstream literature suffers from significant weaknesses; that empirical claims concerning convergence and decoupling have been exaggerated, and that flying geese-type strategies are severely limited. Examination of the drivers of growth in the South and the policies implemented in key converging countries support the claim that political economy approaches can offer valuable policy insights to countries grappling with the challenges of long-term growth and development.     

The Efficiency of Active Labor Market Policies: A Comparative Analysis of Tunisia and OECD Countries’

ABSTRACT

On the third anniversary of the Egyptian revolution and against the backdrop of lingering political instability and deteriorating economic conditions, we diagnose the constraints to sectoral growth in Egypt using the 2011 Egyptian revolution as a natural experiment. We combine quantile regressions to study sector outliers with a difference in difference methodology to capture sectoral behavior before and after revolution. We find that the revolution's effect has been adverse, on average, but heterogeneous across sectors. We identify and characterize sectors most and least impacted. Results reveal that Egypt's fastest growing sectors before Revolution have been the most vulnerable after Revolution. This evidence is supported by our diagnosis approach that shows that faster growing sectors are constrained by continuous increases in prices that threaten export competitiveness (as they erode the benefits accrued to nominal depreciation of currency). Such sectors also benefited from higher monetary growth and fewer constraints on credit availability that have mitigated somewhat the speed of deterioration in the aftermath of the revolution. Our results, which hold under several robustness checks, inform policy priorities as to how to revive investors’ confidence, boost competitiveness, and design priorities in industrial policy to ease structural impediments and align sectoral growth with macro priorities.     

The Dynamic ‘Diamond’: A Technological Innovation Perspective

A firm's local environment can constitute a source of national or regional cornpetitive advantage. An important question, therefore, is how these environments come about and how they can be lost. In this paper, we argue that a local environment is a function of the process of technological evolution. It is a function of how certain initial and prevailing conditions, the type of innovation, and chance events, influence the processes of uncertainty resolution, capabilities building, and survivor selection that are characteristic of technological evolution. We also argue that a region can lose its advantage when a dominant design emerges or when a technological discontinuity obsoletes the localized technological capabilities of not only manufacturers, but also of their suppliers, customers and related industries. The environment is dynamic as firms and nations, in response to their performances, also influence it by changing their strategies or policies.     

Financial Analysts’ Forecasts and Unprecedented Events: The Case of German Reunification

We use the chain of events from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the reunification of Germany to examine how capital market participants respond to momentous and unprecedented events. Our examination measures the impact of these events on analysts’ forecasts for the earnings of West German firms. Our results show a significant decrease in analysts’ ability to accurately forecast earnings. Contrary to the public’s euphoria, the sense of the market was generally negative about the implications of unification for West German firms. This negative sentiment was spread across most of the broad sectors, but within those sectors the results were significantly positive for select groups of industries. It appears that, in the face of this extraordinary event, financial analysts were detached from the emotions it engendered and were discriminating in their assessment of its impact.

The Geo-Social and Global Geographies of Power: Urban Aspirations of ‘Worlding’ African Students in China

This paper conceptualises the geosocial by examining the transnational connections of African student migrants and their educational experiences in Chinese cities. While there is now an established scholarship on Chinese migration to Africa, new research on the concurrent flow of African migration to China is emerging. Recent publications on African migrants in China tend to focus on the experiences of African traders, drawing out issues of illegality, ‘low-end’ globalisation and their impacts on Chinese trading cities. In comparison, this paper shifts the analytical lens to African educational migration in Chinese cities, foregrounding how global householding patterns reflect and leverage on the geopolitical and geo-economic dimensions of China-Africa relations. The paper shows that individual and family goals are negotiated through educational migration that, on the one hand, is concerned with accumulating human and cultural capital through a learning stint in Chinese cities, and on the other hand, is framed by perceptions of China-Africa relations. The paper argues that through educational migration, transnational social reproduction links Africa with China, but the social differentiation and everyday sociality that the African students experience in Chinese cities reinforce racial coding and development asymmetries. In so doing, the paper draws out how the geosocial reflects and constitutes the geopolitical and geo-economic dimensions of transnationalism.     

Producing Airpower: The Rise and Fall of Neo-Liberalism’s Defence Agenda

ABSTRACT

Few policy issues are more challenging than complex weaponry’s procurement and employment. Technology drives weapon costs upwards faster than economies are growing and militaries struggle to maintain increasingly sophisticated arms. Certain governments have adopted a reform agenda rooted in neo-liberal economic theory to address these challenges. Two broad policies – enhancing inter-firm competition for contracts and outsourcing activities to the private sector – emerged as central to this reform agenda. Although rarely presented as such, these reforms present a significant intellectual challenge to the hitherto predominant statist model for military power’s provision. Surprisingly, in light of neo-liberal policies’ adoption by militarily active states, no study has systematically examined these reforms’ content and impact. My article fills this lacuna by examining the state – the United Kingdom – that most consistently enacted neo-liberal defence reforms. To preview the conclusion, neo-liberal reforms initially generated small initial efficiencies, but then produced significant adverse consequences when pursued beyond a certain minimal level. Britain’s competition policy, for example, ultimately incentivized firms to consolidate into monopolies, which narrowed the scope for future competition and prevented the state from upholding fixed price contracts. Outsourcing, likewise, proved detrimental once policymakers sought to extend its scope beyond a limited range of simple services.     

The Financial Stability Board and Switzerland’s WiR-Credit Mechanism

Abstract:

The incentives banks face, such as the Basel Capital Accords, motivate them to favor lending with collateralized assets, rather than lending to Small-Medium Enterprises (SMEs), with associated profound economic consequences for society. Since the 1970s there has not been any direct oversight of whether or not credit contributes to GDP. We need a macroeconomic policy tool that can discriminate among different categories of credit extended to curb speculation in existing assets (non-GDP) and promote new business investment (GDP).

Government money creation and private credit growth are often presumed the only two ways to enhance nominal demand, yet the Swiss Economic Circle (Wirtschaftsring-Genossenschaft or WIR) is a Swiss Bank whose creation of purchasing power for SMEs has counter-cyclically stabilized the Swiss economy for over 80 years. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) should create localized credit-creation architectures utilizing a Swiss-WIR type currency to funnel credit that reflects systemic and macroeconomic risks that individually will never be rational for banks left to themselves.     

Welfare Reform and the Logic of Financial Responsibility: Creating the ‘Value-able’ Subject

ABSTRACT

Financialisation has driven many transformations across advanced capitalist economies and their welfare systems have not been immune from such change. Finance works both as structural force in society, and as a more contingent and contextual set of practices that place demands on the conduct of individuals and the welfare system lies at the intersection of these tendencies. Financial markets have long played a role in the provision of housing or pensions, but are also becoming increasingly visible in benefit systems targeting the poor and economically excluded. Given the exclusionary nature of finance and the marginal assistance it provides to those on low incomes, tensions and contradictions emerge that demand further investigation. This article takes as a case study the recent reform of UK welfare known as Universal Credit and the specific discourse of ‘financial responsibility’ that has emerged around it. This has brought the disciplinary toolkit of the welfare state to bear on ensuring the population meets the demands of financial valuation. Yet the difficulties these reforms have faced suggest that the logics of finance and welfare will always be pulling in different directions.     

The Crisis of America’s Cities

This paper aims to show how state intervention within the European Monetary Union can have positive effects not only on growth but also on public balances and debt. The relation between centralized monetary policy and decentralized fiscal policy partly solves the lack of coordination between the two. Each time a fiscal expansion in an EU country is not accompanied by a Central Bank interest rate increase, the expansionary effect of public spending, initially financed through the emission of public bonds, will be reinforced by endogenous money creation due to the increase in growth. The final result, if growth exceeds the rate of interest, is not only an increase in equilibrium income, but also a reduction in debt.     

Globalization and Income Gap from the Perspective of Developing Countries

Using political economic theory, this paper analyzes the impact of economic globalization on international income distribution, including the income gap between developed countries and developing ones, the income gap among the developing countries. The paper states that because the economic globalization is the globalization of capitalism manufacture style and developed countries dominates the process, the income gap between developing countries and developed one is difficult to be narrowed, and the income gap in developing countries will enlarge.