A QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING INTERREGIONAL TRADE MODEL: AN APPLICATION AND A PERSPECTIVE*

This paper presents a theoretical activity-type model of U.S. interregional trade for the agricultural sector as an extension of the broad non-linear programming formulation of Samuelson [4] and the quadratic programming reformulation of Takayama and Judge [5]. A shorter model is applied to the problem of examination of the short-run competitive strength of Wisconsin, particularly in beef and pork (interregional) trade. The conclusions for Wisconsin suggest competitive price disadvantages in beef and beef feeding but with belter prospects for expansion for a pork sector At a time of growing interest in the probable impact of expanded and freer Canada-US. trade, this type of programming model is suggested as a significant approach to problems of Canada-U.S. trade. In addition, in an apparently emerging era of regulated marketing and production control, the employing of such a model for interregional market share analysis appears a major possible policy avenue Ce papier présenle un modèle théorique “Type-activiie” du commerce interregional aux Etats-Unis, pour le secteur agricuhurel, en guise ?extension du propos de vaste programmation non-lineaire, tel que formule par Samuelson [4], ainsi que celui de Takayama el Judge [5], qui proposent une réformulation de programmation quadraiique. Un plus petit modèle est appliqué au probleme ?examinalion de la force immédiate et compétitive de Wisconsin, tout particulièrement dans le commerce (interrégional) du boeuf et du pore. Les conclusions tirées pour Wisconsin suggèrenl un prix com-pétitif qui désavantagerait le boeuf el ?alimentaiion du boeuf, mais qui favoriserait ?expansion du secieur du pore A un temps oú?on se préoccupe de ?impact tout probable dûà un commerce plus libre et plus étendu entre le Canada el les Etals-Unis, ce genre de modéle de programmation est suggéré comme étant une approche significative aux problèmes de commerce Canada-Eiats-Unis. En plus, en celle époque qui semble mettre de plus en plus ?emphase sur le marché ajuslé et le comrôle de production, les possibililés ?employer un lei modéle pour ?analyse de la part du marché interrégional nous apparait comme étanl une possibilité majeure en fait de ligne de conduiie.     

NORTH AMERICAN-JAPANESE PORK TRADE: AN APPLICATION OF QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING

The main objective of this study was to develop a quarterly recursive programming model of the Japanese-North American pork industries, including the spatial and temporal aspects of the sector, for use in evaluating policy alternatives. The study outlines the structure of the Japanese pork industry and develops a five region (Eastern Canada, Western Canada, United States, Japan, Rest of the World) quadratic programming model which is able to incorporate the Japanese pork price stabilization policy that includes import quotas, a variable duty and an ad valorem duty. Supply, consumption and storage functions were estimated using data from 1963 through 1974. The validated model was used to analyze the effects of: exchange rate variations and modified Japanese domestic agricultural policies on the volume and origin of North American-Japanese pork trade. Le principal objectif de cet étude était de développer, sur une base trimestrielle, un modèle récursif de programmation de l'industrie porcine Nord Américaine et Japonnaise incluant les dimensions espace, temps, dans le but d'évaluer différentes politiques. Cet étude donne un apercu de la structure de l'industrie porcine Japonnaise en développant un modèle quadratique de programmation à grandes régions (L'Est et l'Ouest Canadien, les Etats-Unis, le Japon et le reste du monde). Ce programme est en mesure d'incorporer la politique Japonnaise de stabilisation des prix du pore dont: les quotas d'importation et les droits de doine (spécifiques ou ad-valorem). Les équations d'offre, de consommation et d'entreposage ont été estimeés sur la période 1963–1974. Ce modèle validé a servi à l'analyse des répercussions des différents taux de change, politiques agricoles Japonnaise sur le volume et l'origine du commerce du pore entre l'Amérique du Nord et le Japon.     

OPTIMAL FEEDING POLICIES FOR BROILER PRODUCTION: AN APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING*

The determination of an optimal feeding and selling strategy for broiler production given a space constraint is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. Production equations derived from trial data are used to obtain an optimal sequence of rations in which energy density changes through time. The stability of the plan is explored and the implications of the results for production research and commercial practice are considered.     

遥感技术在水产养殖规划中的应用研究

本文简要介绍了遥感技术在渔业方面应用的经验以及未来发展前景、可能带来的社会效益和经济效益。     

AN APPLICATION OF THE STAPLE THEORY TO SONORA, MEXICO*

The role of primary exports in the economic development of a country or region has been subject to much debate. The “staple theory” has been proposed as an explanation of the beneficial effect of primary exports on the economic development of Canada and the United States. However, one authority argues that the staple theory is applicable only to the special case of a new underpopulated country. This paper shows that primary exports have stimulated development in the state of Sonora, Mexico. Data showing the increase in primary production and exports between 1950 and 1960 are linked to the increase in manufacturing employment in industries producing inputs for primary production, industries processing primary products, and industries producing products to satisfy increases in final demand. The role of government policies, institutional arrangements, and the nature of the production functions for primary products are examined in an effort to determine the impact of primary exports on manufacturing activity. This study illustrates that the staple theory provides insight into the development or lack of development of all countries exporting primary products. L'IMPORTANCE DES EXPLOITATIONS DE BASE DANS LE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMQUE: ?APPLICATION DE LA “THEORIE DES DENREES PRINCIPALES” DANS ?ETAT DE SONORA AU MEXIQUE - Le rôle des exportations de base dans le développement économique ?un pays ou ?une région a fait le sujet de bien des débats, La “théorie des denrées principales” a été proposée comme une explication de ?effet avantageux des exportations de base sur le développement économique du Canada et des États-Unis. Toutefois, une autorité prétend que la théorie des denrées principales ne s'applique qu'au cas particulier ?un nouveau pays sous-peuplé. Le présent exposé démontre quelles exportations de baseont stimulilé développement de ?étal de Sonora au Mexique. Des données indiquant ?augmen tation de la production et des exportations de base entre 1950 et 1960 sont liées à?avance de ?emploi manufacturier dans les industries produisant des intrants pour la production de base, pour les industries qui préparent des produits de base et pour les industries qui produisent des marchandises pour satisfaire aux demandes accrues de produits finis. Le rôle des politique! gouvemementales, des accords institutionnels et la nature des fonctions de la production pour les produits de base sont examinés afin de déterminer ?effet des exportations de base sur ?activité manufacturière. Cette étude démontre que la théorie des denrées principales fournit un aperçu du développement ou du manque de développement des pays qui exponent des produits de base.     

UNDERWRITING ASSISTANCE TO THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY — AN APPLICATION OF OPTION PRICING THEORY

For the ten crop seasons 1979-80 to 1988-89, returns to producers in the Australian wheat industry were underwritten by a government-guaranteed price floor. Similar schemes operate in other rural industries (dairy, apples and pears, dried fruits). Although the underwriting provisions have only been triggered once (in the 1986-87 season), the provision of this scheme has acted to reduce the risk normally associated with returns to producers of wheat in all years of its operation. This reduction in risk has been granted free-of-charge by the Commonwealth Government. The guaranteed price can be viewed as a put option taken out by the Government on behalf of growers — it gives growers the option to sell to the Australian Wheat Board at this floor price. The aim of this paper is to apply to this underwriting arrangement the Black-Scholes formula for valuing options, in order to estimate the cost that growers would otherwise have had to pay to obtain cover (through put options) equivalent to the guaranteed price. We also estimate the magnitude of this form of assistance to the industry, which (until now) has not been taken into account unless the returns to growers fell below the guaranteed price.     

AN OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR INTENSIVE AQUACULTURE — AN APPLICATION IN ATLANTIC SALMON*

In this paper the optimal management strategy for intensive aquaculture is viewed in terms of a combined strategy of releasing the optimal number of recruits and harvesting those recruits at the optimal harvesting time. A model which can be used to determine the optimal management strategy is developed. In the model the optimal harvesting model documented by Bjorndahl (1988, 1990) in which harvesting and feed costs are considered, is extended by including release costs and how they influence the optimal number of recruits. The model forms the basis for an empirical analysis in which the optimal management strategy for a yearclass of Atlantic salmon farmed in Australia during 1989-91 is considered.     

ESTIMATING CROP ACREAGES IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES –APPLICATION OF RECURSIVE PROGRAMMING*

This paper analyses acreage response of major crops in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and in the prairies as a whole during the period 1958 to 1969 and forecasts crop acreages in each province. Four recurrent programming models, one for each province and one for the prairies as a whole, were developed. Major crops included in the model are wheat, oats, barley, rye flaxseed, rapeseed and summerfallow. The recursive programming models explained the land utilization pattern in all the provinces and the prairies with reasonable accuracy. The acreage forecasts for 1971 were close to the observed acreages for wheat, oats, rye and summerfallow, but were different for barley, flaxseed and rapeseed. Price, stocks, exports, precipitation and the preceding year's crop acreage were found to be significant variables affecting prairie land utilization patterns. In response to an agricultural policy designed for changing land use, prairie farmers can substantially change their crop acreages even in a year's time. Responses to a policy may also vary by crops. This study also suggests that interrelationsliips among crops should be considered for developing agricultural land use policy. Returns from alternative crops should be examined for ascertaining the effectiveness of the policy. Ce document analyse la réaction mix conditions exislantes des acres de principales récoltes du Manitoba, de la Saskatchewan, de ?Alberta et de ?ensemble des Prairies durant la période de 1958, a 1969, et prédit les superficies qui seront cttltivées en 1971 dans chaque province. Quatre modèles de programmes, récurrents tin pour ?ensemble des Prairies et tin pour chacun des provinces, out été préparés. Les principales récoltes comprises dans le modèle sont le blé, ?avoine, ?orge, le seigle, le tin, le colza et la jachère. Les modèles des programmes récurrents expliqucnt ?une facon plus ou moins exacte la mode ?utilisation des terres dans toutes les provinces. Les prédictions se rapportent aux superficies en acres pour 1971 se rapproclient des superficies qui out été cultivées à?égard du blé. de ?avoine, due seigle el de la jachére, mais files différaient quant a ?orge le tin et le colza. Le prix, les stocks en main, les exportations, les précipitations et les superficies cultivées de ?année précédente sont des variables importantes influant le mode ?utilisation des terres dans les Prairies. En résponse à un programme agricole destinéà changer ?utilisation des terres, les agriculeurs des Prairies peuvent change les superficies de leurs récoltes dans ?espace ?un an. La reaction à un programme peat attssi varicr scion la récolte. Cette étude estiine en outre que ?on devrait considérer la corrélation entre les récoltes pour élaborer un programme ?utilisation des terres agricoles. Les recettes tirées de diverses récoltes devraient être examinées pour vérifier ?efficacité du programme.     

SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM AND PRICE VARIABILITY: AN APPLICATION TO THE FALL POTATO INDUSTRY*

The purpose of this paper is to show that spatial price equilibrium models with stochastic supply functions can be solved and that such solutions contain some interesting information. The solution procedure suggested is relatively uncomplicated, requiring only quadratic programming routines available to most researchers. Estimates of price distributions which result from this approach can be quite useful for price forecasting and for decision making at firm and industry levels. The importance of the additional information obtained by solving these models stochastically is discussed in connection with a amplified model of the United States fall potato industry. Results of the application reveal that changing production patterns have given rise to substantive shifts in annual prices distributions in important consumption areas. EQUILIBRE ET VARIATIONS DANS LES PRIX DE PRODUCTION DES POMMESDE TERRE D'AUTOMNE - Cette communication a pour objet de démontrer qu'il y a moyen d'établir un équilibre des prix en function des approvisionnements de denrées et que les solutions possibles contiennent plusieurs éléments intéressants. La solution proposée est relativement simple et s'obtient par la methode de programmation quadratique qu'utilisent constamment la plupart des chercheurs. Les données auxquelles on arrive à l'aide de cette méthode permettent d'établir des projections de prix qui ont lew utilité tant au niveau des entreprises qu'à celui de l'ensemble de ce secteur de l'économie. Pour bien faire comprendre la valeur des renseignements additionnels obtenus par cette méthode, qui est basée sur les prix et les approvisionnements, on recourt, à titre d'exemple, à une analyse simplifiée de la situation telle qu'elle existe dans le secteur de la production des pommes de terre d'automne, aux Etat-Unis. Il s'avère, en somme, que les transformations qui se produisent au niveau de la production influent de façon radicale sur les prix qui sont obtenus chaque année dans les grands centres de consummation.     

AN APPLICATION AND EXTENSION OF THE MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO CEREAL PRODUCTION

Given aggregate time-series data, conventional Markov Chain estimation of the stationary transition probabilities is performed for a model of the cereal market in Great Britain. The possibility of non-stationary probabilities is examined in the light of these initial results, and the basic model developed to allow exogenous variables to enter via their influence on these parameters. The evidence from the paper would appear to suggest that, at least in the case considered, time-varying transition probabilities are a most attractive alternative.     

THE DEMAND FOR MEAT — AN EXAMPLE OF AN INCOMPLETE COMMODITY DEMAND SYSTEM*

Equations describing the demand for beef and veal, mutton, lamb, pork and chicken are estimated using the full information maximum likelihood estimator. Elasticity estimates are presented and the double logarithmic model is compared with a demand system which is derived from the indirect translog utility function. Estimates of the direct price and income elasticities are not particularly sensitive to model specification but the estimated cross-price elasticities are sensitive to the choice of functional form. The results indicate that the double logarithmic specification may be less satisfactory than the alternative presented in cases where restrictions on the parameters are imposed during estimation.     

LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND GAME THEORY MODLES—SOME EXTENSIONS

This is an extension of the author's earlier paper in this Journal, showing how the complete range of decision criteria conventionally associated with game theory can be applied in conjunction with a linear programming model. The use of these criteria is demonstrated in relation to the same farm planning problem as was shown earlier in the development of Maximin programming, and a comparison of all the alternative plans resulting from the adoption of a game theoretic decision framework is presented.     

AN APPLICATION OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TO BEEF SLAUGHTER PLANT LOCATION AND SIZE,QUEENSLAND

The objective of this study is to define in the cost minimizing sense the optimum size and location for beef slaughter plants in the Eastern Central Queensland region. The plant location model used for this purpose is a modified transhipment formulation. It is applied to both a long run unlimited capacity case and a short run limited capacity case. The analysis indicates that for both cases production-area oriented slaughter minimizes costs. Sensitivity testing of the stability of the solution is outlined.     

AN APPLICATION OF MARKOV CHAINS TO FARM TYPE STRUCTURAL DATA IN ENGLAND AND WALES

Markov Chain methods of projection are applied to farm type structural data derived from the returns in the Annual June Agricultural Census in England and Wales. Three sets of projections, using different assumptions, are made of the numbers of holdings by farm type in 1969 and of the movement of holdings between farm type during 1968/69. These are compared with the actual Census returns for 1969. Use of a four-year average transition probability matrix gives the best overall results on the basis of that comparison and this matirx was then used to project farm type structure in England and Wales for 1971 and 1973. These projections indicate that between June 1969 and June 1973 the number of all holdings with 275 or more standard man days (SMD) will decline; those classified as Mixed, Livestock, and Pigs and Poultry are likely to show the largest proportional declines. Some 50 per cent of holdings are likely to be below the 275 SMD limit. Since the assumptions made may not be fulfilled in every respect, it is unlikely that the outcome in 1971 and 1973 will be precisely as predicted, but the pattern and direction of the projections are likely to hold.     

SOCIAL COSTS OF REGULATION OF PRIMARY INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION TO ANIMAL WELFARE REGULATION OF THE VICTORIAN PIG INDUSTRY*

The effects of state government regulation of primary industry are modelled. An analytical framework is presented for estimating the costs of regulation in terms of changes in economic surplus. The model permits trade between regions of the total market. An illustrative application of the framework is applied to proposed animal welfare regulation of the Victorian pig industry. Some regulations that may provide large gains with regard to the welfare of farm animals involve only small social costs compared to the gross value of production of the industry. Conversely, other regulations that potentially confer only small gains in animal welfare impose large social costs. The distribution of these costs is important. In general, consumers lose, as do some producers. Other producers gain. In some cases, producers in aggregate gain from regulation. Major beneficiaries, such as advocates of animal welfare regulations, are likely to bear little of the cost of regulation.     

THE CONCEPT OF EFFECTIVE SUBSIDY AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE CANADIAN FLOUR MILLING INDUSTRY*

The export subsidy has been a perennial bone of contention to competing exporters of various commodities in international trade, particularly in agricultural trade. A typical example is the world trade in flour. Export subsidies on flour exports by large competitors are generally thought to be one of the main causes of the decline in the Canadian share of the world flour market. Previous studies have been confined to an analysis of nominal subsidy rates on flour; quantifications are needed to estimate the effectiveness of the subsidies in fuller terms. Therefore, it is desirable to develop an appropriate concept for treating export subsidies explicitly. The present study attempts to develop a model to estimate the effectiveness of export subsidies net of input distortion so as to arrive at “the effective rate of subsidy.” Then, the mode! so developed is applied to the U.S. and Canadian exports of flour. The results show that Canada had negative effective rates of subsidy throughout the years 1960-61 to 1969-70 while the U.S. rates remained positive during this entire period. These estimations provide quantification of the disadvantage caused for Canadian flour exports by export subsidies on flour by large competitors. A fin ?étudier explictement les primes ?exporiations ont Aeté une source continuelle de mé-sentente entre les exponateurs compétitifs des diverses marchandises au sein du marché international. Ceci est paniculièremeni vrai en ce qui a trait au marché agricole. Un exemple lypique est le marché mondial des farines. ?on croit que i'une des principals causes de la baisse de la part Canadienne dans le marché mondial des farines sont les primes ?exporiations accordées aux gros compétiteurs. Les études précédenles furenl limitées à?analyse de taux nominal de subventions sur les farines; des estimations quan-titatives sont nécessaires afin ?évaluer ?efficacile des subventions en termes plus précis. Done, it est necessaire de développer un concept approprté afin ?étudier les primes ?exporiations explicitement. La préseme étude tente de développer un modèle ?évaluation de ?efficacité des primes ?exporiations libres de loutes déformations afin ?obtenir “un taux efficace de subvention.” Ce modèle est alors appliqué aux exportalions Américaines el Canadiennes de farine. Les résultats démontrent que le Canada possèdait des “taux efficaces de subventions” négalifs pendant les années 1960-61 à 1969-70 el que les taux Américains demeurerent positifs durant la même période. Ces résultats nous donnent la dimension du désavantage causé aux exportalions Canadiennes de farine par les primes ?exporiations accordees aux gros compétiteurs.     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE*

A simple model is developed relating the debt and asset portfolio of the farm to the production decision, which leads to a small non-linear system of equations. The system is estimated with time-series cross-sectional data from Australian broadacre agriculture using non-linear three-stage least squares. This gives a new method of estimating risk aversion coefficients by using actual behaviour of farmers in a realistic economic environment, rather than games played in artificial situations. Australian farmers are found to be risk averse, and the partial coefficient of risk aversion decreases with wealth and increases with income. The results are consistent with the results of studies by Binswanger in India and elsewhere using a completely different method. This consistency suggests that the partial risk aversion coefficient is a relatively robust measure of attitudes to risk.     

FORECASTING SAWNTIMBER CONSUMPTION: THE APPLICATION OF AN END-USE MODEL*

A multi-equation end-use model is used to analyse the consumption of sawn-timber in Australia. The forecasting ability of the model is evaluated. Simulations of the model are reported and implications for policy are discussed.     

WEAK SEPARABILITY AND A TEST FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF INCOME IN DEMAND MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN AUSTRALIA*

Most studies of the demand for meat in Australia have used some measure of total income or expenditure, but two recent studies have assumed weak separability of a meat group and used expenditure on the meat group instead. These specification differences are of interest to the extent that they affect the economic interpretation, goodness-of-fit, elasticity estimates, predictive performance or hypothesis tests in empirical demand equations. In this paper, non-nested hypothesis testing procedures are used to test the alternative specifications of the income variable and the hypothesis of separability. The results favour the use of the expenditure variable implied by separability but are mixed concerning whether separability holds.