基础研究与应用研究对地区经济高质量发展的异质性作用——基于“中等收入陷阱风险”视角

当前,内外部环境改变导致经济增速放缓,中国面临陷入“中等收入陷阱”风险,以创新驱动实现经济高质量发展越发重要。以经济效率提升与经济动能转换综合衡量经济高质量发展水平,使用2001—2017年中国省际面板数据,实证检验基础研究与应用研究对中国经济高质量发展的异质性影响。结果发现：①基础研究与应用研究均有利于经济效率提升,只有基础研究显著促进经济动能转换;②东中西部地区收入水平存在差距,基础研究对经济高质量发展存在阶梯式地区异质性影响,即对东部地区经济效率有显著促进作用,对中部地区无显著影响,对西部地区有显著抑制作用,且仅对东部地区经济动能转换具有显著促进作用,但应用研究无显著地区异质性影响;③基础研究存在显著门槛效应,只有达到一定收入水平,基础研究才会促进地区经济高质量发展;④为实现2025年前后顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”,未来中国基础研究投入年均增幅需保持在［24.7%,29.3%］区间。     

经济结构约束下中小保险公司发展对经济增长的影响

大量研究发现保险业活动可以影响经济增长,但对于保险业的结构特征和区域差异对经济增长是否有作用却鲜有涉及。本文运用中国31个省份（直辖市）在1999-2008年间的面板数据,利用固定效应模型和系统广义矩方法进行了计量分析。我们发现保险业活动、结构以及保险业结构与经济结构的匹配对经济发展具有显著的影响：中小保险公司市场份额的提高有利于经济增长;保险业结构与经济结构匹配时会促进经济增长,反之则会抑制经济增长。本文还构建了相对保险深度指标对全国样本进行分类,发现不同区域保险业结构与经济结构的协同效应对经济增长的影响规律存在一定的差异。     

Do focus groups and individual interviews reveal the same information for natural resource valuation?

Focus groups and individual interviews have become accepted methods used in the initial stages of valuation research. Whether focus groups and individual interviews reveal similar valuation information has not been thoroughly studied. The research tests the hypothesis that focus groups yield the same ecosystem service information as do individual interviews. The research also explores how the focus group and individual interview data might differ. The analysis shows that focus groups and individual interviews are not substitutes. They yield different information about ecosystem services and resource uses.     

Is it the economy,stupid? The role of social versus economic factors in people’s support for hosting the Olympic Games: evidence from 12 democratic countries

Public referenda have gained momentum as a democratic tool to legitimize public mega projects such as hosting the Olympic Games. Interest groups in favour of hosting the Olympics therefore try to influence voters through public campaigns that primarily focus on economic benefits. However, recent studies find no or hardly any economic impact of hosting the Olympics, instead providing evidence for a positive social impact. This raises the question whether citizens consider economic or social factors when deciding on hosting the Olympics. Based on representative survey data from 12 countries, our results suggest that economic factors can influence voting behaviour, although the influence of social factors is stronger.     

What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries

Over the last decades, a large strand of finance and growth literature has provided ample evidence on the importance of financial deepening for economic development. Yet, recently, the focus of public debate has shifted towards the role of the financial system structure, an area in which empirical research remains relatively sparse and exploratory in nature. With this article, we aim to contribute to that debate by analysing the role the financial system structure plays in economic growth and risk. Focusing on stock markets and studying OECD economies over 1994–2013, we find that, ceteris paribus, financial systems with relatively larger stock markets facilitate economic growth and dampen economic risk. Our findings remain robust under application of instrumental variable and system generalized method of moments estimators, as well as when we use an alternative definition of stock market development, estimate median regressions, examine relatively high-frequency annual data, control for systemic banking crises or apply quadratic specifications. We find no such effect for private bond markets or private credit volume. Overall, our results suggest that financial system structure matters for the economic development of advanced economies and highlight the importance of a debate about the optimal structure of an economy’s financial system.     

Trust and trustworthiness across different age groups

We examine the degree of trust and trustworthiness in an experimental trust game with 662 participants from six different age groups, ranging from 8-year-olds to retired persons. Although both trust and trustworthiness have been identified as fundamental pillars for efficient economic interactions, economic research has devoted little attention to measuring their strength in different age groups. In our experiment subjects interact with members of the same age group. We find that trust increases almost linearly from early childhood to early adulthood, but stays rather constant within different adult age groups. Trustworthiness prevails in all age groups.     

A Feminist Comparative Economic Systems

Abstract

This study proposes that feminist research be integrated into the field of comparative economic systems (CES) and that CES return to its traditional institutionalist methodologies to facilitate more complete analyses of economic systems and feminist alternatives to these systems and institutions. The study describes the evolution of CES, drawing attention to an increasing reliance on econometric modeling that reflects a shift in focus away from systems. An inventory of research on women and gender that has appeared in CES journals and textbooks finds little on topics other than formal labor markets in transition economies. The study contrasts this literature on women and gender in transition economies to research on this topic by women from transition economies, a literature that CES journal authors do not reference. It concludes by proposing a feminist economics approach that focuses on gender-differentiated impacts of economic systems, analyses of households, and equity as a measure of progress.     

经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策:理论与实证研究

经济政策影响微观企业经营是现有研究的共识.在已有文献基础上,文章考察了经济政策不确定性对企业退出决策的影响.文章基于一个代表性企业最优退出决策的框架,构建了经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策作用机制的理论模型,并利用1998?2011年中国工业企业微观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.研究结果显示,经济政策不确定性通过增加市场预期收益的机制降低了企业的退出概率,即面对高水平的经济政策不确定性时,企业对未来市场形成了良好的预期,倾向于采取理性的"延迟退出"决策.进一步分析发现,企业退出决策的"延迟现象"在不同企业、行业和区域间呈现出异质性,经济政策不确定性更多地延迟了具有优越发展前景的企业、行业及区域的市场退出.从企业方面来看,这一现象在规模小、跨产业经营、出口、政府补贴的企业及创新企业中更加显著;从行业方面来看,这一现象在资金技术密集型的行业及生产率高的行业中更加显著;从区域来看,这一现象在市场化程度高的区域及经济增长快的区域更加显著.可见,政府的经济政策变动,不仅引导了企业制定理性的战略决策,而且激励了优势资源和市场的持续发展.     

What You Should Know About Globalization and the World Trade Organization

This paper reviews the essentials of economic globalization, as well as the major institution that has recently gotten much of the credit and blame for it, the World Trade Organization (WTO). It first defines globalization, which is just the increasing economic integration of the world economy. It then asks who gains and loses from globalization, drawing primarily upon economic theory to identify its benefits and costs, and who within and among the world's economies get these benefits and costs. That part of the discussion concludes by asking briefly what can and should be done about globalization. The second half of the paper turns to the WTO, which was the focus of so much negative attention at its Seattle meeting in December 1999. The authors try to clarify several misperceptions about what it does, and why. Some groups gain and some lose from the WTO, some simply as a byproduct of its role in facilitating globalization, but others from particular WTO rules and procedures. The paper suggests what might be done to change both the WTO itself and the public's perceptions of it.     

Changing concepts of ‘land’ in economic theory: From single to multi-disciplinary approaches

The role of land in economic theory is surveyed, both from a conceptual and historical perspective. Land has been incorporated in economic theories in various ways. Originally, land used by agriculture was the main motivation for an economic treatment of land. This was gradually extended with various other land use categories. Neoclassical economic theory gave less attention to land use, generally regarding land as a production factor of relatively little importance. Nevertheless, specialized sub-fields within economics such as regional and urban economics met the demand for explicit spatial analysis including land use considerations. Attention for environmental and resource problems has stimulated new perspectives on, and conceptualizations of, land in economic analysis. This involves the interaction with other disciplines as well as the use of spatially disaggregated methods of analysis. Awareness of the richness of ideas on land in economic theory can contribute to enhanced environmental research.     

崛起与转型的政治经济学：基于中国的经验研究

当前我国滥觞于内生性能源、资源的刚性约束和外源性的政治竞争与安全压力,国际社会潜在的丛林竞争规则,大国兴衰沉浮的历史经验警示,和平崛起战略的顺利实现与否势必首先寄望于国内市场经济导向型改革与体制转型战略的成败。为增长而竞争的财政分权和晋升激励成为中国政府推动经济增长的动力源泉,它有助于增进转型初期的经济增长和资源配置。在晚近荣辱浮沉的历史湍流中,在沉淀了师从苏俄与欧美发展模式的喧嚣之后,必须注意防范现有自由资本主义发展模式的制度性痼疾。中国的体制改革和宪政转型不能是邯郸学步式的凌空虚蹈,考量东亚的国家规模、社会传统与发展共性,权衡中国历史与现实的经济、制度、文化与意识形态,运用法治规则一市场机制,培育柔性威权一善治和谐社会的国家也许是较为现实的理性选择。     

能源消费与经济增长的关联关系分析——基于山东省1980～2008年相关数据实证研究

能源消费与经济增长之间的关系一直是国内外关注的焦点,确定二者之间的因果关系方向具有重大的政策含义。在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,采用1980—2008年的相关统计数据,利用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验分析山东省能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示能源消费与经济增长具有长期趋势关系,且存在双向因果关系;通过对柯氏生产函数的扩展计量模型,采用广义最小二乘法进行估计,得出结论：山东省能源消费与经济增长呈正相关关系,经济增长对能源消耗的依赖程度较高。     

科技创业人才的属性特征述评与环境弹性模型构建

科技创业人才作为一个群体,研究分析其属性与特征,有助于深入了解群体自身的成长规律,探寻群体与经济社会环境相互作用的内在规律,为科技创业人才开发提供科学指导。现有的创业研究主要关注三大方面：创业者特质、创业组织成长和创业环境,而在创业者对创业环境的能动作用方面研究较少。运用文献归纳等综合分析方法,认为科技创业人才具有四大本质属性（遗传性、社会性、资本性和创造性）和三大基本特征（知识特性、经济活性和事业韧性）。运用类比法,提出创业环境弹性概念,构建并分析了科技创业人才四面体特征模型和环境弹性函数,强调科技创业人才对环境的能动作用,弥补了现有创业研究的不足。结果表明,环境弹性与知识特性、经济活性、事业韧性存在正相关关系。通过设计科技创业人才创业认知问卷,给出了特征模型的量化赋值方法,为深化研究科技创业人才特征模型奠定了基础。     

产业投资基金真的可以驱动经济结构优化吗——产业基金对经济增长与产业升级驱动程度的PVAR模型分析

在中国经济转型过程中,众多地方政府选择产业投资基金作为优化经济结构的助推工具,但实践中各地方产业基金的投资效果与期望目标存在较大差异,因此需要对产业基金的经济优化效应进行检验。运用诺依曼定理分析产业基金与经济结构优化的互动机制并提出研究假设,采用面板向量自回归模型将经济结构优化表示为经济增长与产业升级,并与产业投资基金进行实证检验。结果表明,产业基金并不是经济结构优化的驱动因素,而只是其结果。一方面,产业基金并不会直接驱动经济增长与产业结构升级,而是通过增加金融投资总量间接作用于经济结构优化;另一方面,产业升级与经济增长会显著吸引产业投资基金。鉴于大量设立产业投资基金对于优化经济结构效果不显著,因而应当重点促进多元金融产业发展、提高企业融资能力、发展多种形式的金融工具。     

数智化如何赋能经济高质量发展——兼论营商环境的调节作用

数智化如何赋能经济高质量发展，是近年来实务界和学术界共同关注的焦点。从理论上分析数智化对经济高质量发展的影响机制，并探讨营商环境对两者关系的调节作用，然后以2009-2018年我国内地31个省、市、自治区数据为样本，实证检验上述影响机制和调节作用。研究发现，数智化转型与应用对经济高质量发展具有积极促进作用，营商环境在数智化与经济高质量发展之间具有显著调节作用，营商环境越优良，数智化对经济高质量发展的促进作用越显著。同时，营商环境的调节作用在我国存在显著的区域差异性，其在东部和中部地区的调节作用显著高于西部地区。     

Using resources in R&D policy planning: Brazil, the Amazon and biotechnology

Brazil's research and development (R&D) policies are examined in light of changes in economic direction especially as it pertains to competition. In a competitive environment, regions should develop industrial applications and expertise in areas that coincide with their resources. These could be human resources but could, as in the focus of this paper, be useful resources that differentiate the region from others in the world. This differentiation provides an advantage to the region. Brazil and its Amazon region has the large majority of the world's rare genes. In biotechnology, genes are “green gold,” and Brazil is slowly developing a biotechnology industry and beginning to tap into the Brazilian Amazon region's economic biotech potential. This region has enormous potential for the development of biotech-related technologies and products. This paper discusses the relationship between resources and an R&D strategy using as an example the recent developments in biotechnology research in Brazil and the role of the Amazon region in the development of a Brazilian biotechnology industry. It recommends a number of policy initiatives that will enhance Brazil's focus on biotechnology.     

DETERMINANTS OF WOMEN'S MICROENTERPRISE SUCCESS IN AHMEDABAD,INDIA: EMPOWERMENT AND ECONOMICS

Abstract

Microenterprise success is often evaluated solely in terms of economic outcomes. These evaluations do not recognize how opportunities for success may differ across groups and contexts, and disregard the importance of power and control as factors in success. This article investigates the determinants of a two-dimensional concept of microenterprise success for women in Ahmedabad, India, by analyzing data from a 1998 study of home-based garment producers. Growing economic success for these garment producers decreased empowerment outcomes, which suggests that evaluating both economic and empowerment outcomes and their interactions is important to understanding the process of achieving success. Improving the economic outcomes of women's enterprises via better training and access to markets, credit, and capital equipment does not necessarily facilitate women's empowerment. Microenterprise scholars and practitioners must focus on improving women's status within their homes, so they may contribute to and benefit from the decisions made about how to use their resources.     

A theorist's view of experiments

The paper springs from a position that economic theory is an abstract investigation of the concepts and considerations involved in real life economic decision making rather than a tool for predicting or describing real behavior. It is argued that when experimental economics is motivated by theory, it should not look to verify the predictions of theory but instead should focus on verifying that the considerations contained in the economic model are sound and in common use. It is argued that when theory is motivated by experiments, the theorist should not be hasty in adopting new functional forms but should try to identify the basic psychological themes which are revealed exposed by the experiment. Finally, some critical comments on the methodology of experimental economics are presented.     

Growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development

This study examines (1) whether leisure tourism can contribute to economic growth and (2) if it does, whether its growth effects are constant across levels of economic development. Leisure tourism differs from business tourism in the causal relation with economic growth. In addition, the natural and heritage-related resources for leisure tourism are limited and not reproducible. This notion has a significant implication for the relationship between the growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development. Thus, the current study focuses on leisure tourism and controls for the effects of business tourism. As an economy grows, the growth effects of leisure tourism are expected to diminish due to a lack of continued productivity improvement in the tourism industry. The empirical findings in this research reveal that leisure tourism contributes to economic growth at an early stage of economic development, but its contribution becomes weaker as the economy develops.     

Evolutionary macroeconomics: a research agenda

In this article, the goal is to offer a new research agenda for evolutionary macroeconomics. The article commences with a broad review of the main ideas in the history of thought concerning the determinants of economic growth and an introduction to the evolutionary perspective. This is followed by a selective review of recent evolutionary approaches to macroeconomics. These approaches are found to be somewhat disconnected. It is argued that the ‘micro-meso-macro’ approach to economic evolution is capable of resolving this problem by offering an analytical framework in which macroeconomics can be built upon ‘meso-foundations’, not micro-foundations, as asserted in the mainstream. It is also stressed that the economic system and its components are complex adaptive systems and that this complexity must not be assumed away through the imposition of simplistic assumptions made for analytical convenience. It is explained that complex economic systems are, at base, energetic in character but differ from biological complex systems in the way that they collect, store and apply knowledge. It is argued that a focus upon stocks and flows of energy and knowledge in complex economic systems can yield an appropriate analytical framework for macroeconomics. It is explained how such a framework can be connected with key insights of both Schumpeter and Keynes that have been eliminated in modern macroeconomics. A macroeconomic framework that cannot be operationalized empirically is of limited usefulness so, in the last part of the article, an appropriate methodology for evolutionary macroeconomics is discussed.