How do agency problems affect firm value? – Evidence from China

Using newly available data, we examine the effects of the agency conflicts between ultimate controlling shareholders and minority shareholders in China's publicly listed firms between 2004 and 2009. We measure the severity of these agency problems by the excess control rights of the ultimate controlling shareholders. We show that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly lower firm value. We identify two channels through which the excess control rights affect firm value: (1) related-party loan guarantees, and (2) legal violations. We find that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly larger amounts of related-party loan guarantees (scaled by assets) for non-state and private firms, but not for state-owned firms. We find that, for non-state and private firms, the excess controls rights are associated with (1) significantly higher probability that the firm will issue value-destroying related-party loan guarantees and (2) significantly worse stock market reactions to the announcements of related-party loan guarantees. However, these results do not hold for state-owned firms. We also find that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly higher probability, frequency and severity of legal violations for non-state and private firms, but not for state-owned firms.     

A note on the valuation of asset management firms

Market capitalization relative to assets under management is often used to value asset management firms. Huberman’s (2004) dividend discount model implies that cross-sectional variations in this metric are explained by cross-sectional differences in operating margins, and yet we find no evidence of this in our data set. We show that a superior model—inspired by the work of Berk and Green (2004)—includes also the level of fees as an explanatory variable. This approach dramatically increases the fit of our valuation model and casts doubt on the relevance of the so-called Huberman puzzle.     

A BSDE approach to fair bilateral pricing under endogenous collateralization

Nie and Rutkowski (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 18:1550048, 2015; Math. Finance, 2016, to appear) examined fair bilateral pricing in models with funding costs and an exogenously given collateral. The main goal of this work is to extend results from Nie and Rutkowski (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 18:1550048, 2015; Math. Finance, 2016, to appear) to the case of an endogenous margin account depending on the contract’s value for the hedger and/or the counterparty. Comparison theorems for BSDEs from Nie and Rutkowski (Theory Probab. Appl., 2016, forthcoming) are used to derive bounds for unilateral prices and to study the range for fair bilateral prices in a general semimartingale model. The backward stochastic viability property, introduced by Buckdahn et al. (Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 116:485–504, 2000), is employed to examine the bounds for fair bilateral prices for European claims with a negotiated collateral in a diffusion-type model. We also generalize in several respects the option pricing results from Bergman (Rev. Financ. Stud. 8:475–500, 1995), Mercurio (Actuarial Sciences and Quantitative Finance, pp. 65–95, 2015) and Piterbarg (Risk 23(2):97–102, 2010) by considering contracts with cash-flow streams and allowing for idiosyncratic funding costs for risky assets.     

How trading activity scales with company size in the FTSE 100

This paper investigates the scaling dependencies between measures of ‘activity’ and of ‘size’ for companies included in the FTSE 100. The ‘size’ of companies is measured by the total market capitalization. The ‘activity’ is measured with several quantities related to trades (transaction value per trade, transaction value per hour, tick rate), to the order queue (total number of orders, total value), and to the price dynamic (spread, volatility). The outcome is that systematic scaling relations are observed: (1) the value exchanged by hour and value in the order queue have exponents of less than 1, respectively 0.90 and 0.75; (2) the tick rate and the value per transaction scale with the exponents 0.39 and 0.44; (3) the annualized volatility is independent of the size, and the tick-by-tick volatility decreases with the market capitalization with an exponent of ?0.23; (4) the spread increases with the volatility with an exponent of 0.94. A theoretical random walk argument is given that relates the volatility exponents to the exponents in points 1 and 2.     

An Empirical Comparison of Asset-Pricing Models in the Shanghai A-Share Exchange Market

This paper evaluates and compares the performance of three-asset pricing models—the capital asset pricing model of Sharpe (J Finance 19:425–442, 1964), the three-factor model of Fama and French (J Financ Econ 33:3–56, 1993), and the five-factor model (Fama and French in J Financ Econ 123:1–22, 2015)—in the Shanghai A-share exchange market. Our results do not support the superiority of the five-factor model and show that the three-factor model outperforms the other models. We also verify the redundancy of the book-to-market factor and confirm the findings of Fama and French (2015).     

Indirect tax reform and the specification of demand: the case of Ireland

This paper examines the sensitivity of marginal tax reform analysis to changes in the underlying demand system. In particular, we analyse the sensitivity of results from Ahmad and Stern’s (J Publ Econ 25(3):259–298, 1984) marginal tax reform model to different specifications of Deaton and Muellbauer’s (Am Econ Rev 70(3):312–326, 1980) Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and Banks et al.’s (Rev Econ Stat 79(4):527–539, 1997) Quadratic AIDS. Using Irish Household Budget Survey data, we show that tax reform results exhibit a low degree of sensitivity to changes in the underlying demand system. An adjustment for a mass of observed zero-expenditures in the data for certain goods produces most sensitivity in the tax reform results. Even in these cases, many of the tax reform recommendations remain constant. Including demerit good arguments in the tax reform model can substantially alter the tax reform recommendations relating to demerit goods. Notably though, when we include these arguments in the tax reform model, the results are particularly insensitive to changes in the underlying demand system.     

Technical basis for collective (Group) pensions insurance in Norway — K 1946

I. Introduction.

In 1933 O. Aabakken in this journal ¹ Olav Aabakken: “A New Basis of Calculation for Collective Pensions Insurance in Norway”. 1933. dealt with the collective (group) pensions insurance in Norway and especially with the technical basis — K 1931 — which was adopted in 1931 by the life offices in common for this branch of insurance. This basis was worked out from the experiences since 1917, when collective pensions insurance was introduced in Norway. When the National old-age insurance was introduced in 1936, the life offices adopted some new collective pensions benefits which could be employed in the cases where an adjustment to the National old age insurance was desirable. O. Böe has described the mode of adjustment. ² Olav Böe: “Relations between Collective Pensions Insurance, Employer's Pension Funds and National Insurance in Norway”. Transactions of the Eleventh International Congress of Actuaries, Paris 1937.      

The investment performance,attributes, and investment behavior of ethical equity mutual funds in the US: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the investment performance of US ethical equity mutual funds relative to the market and their traditional counterparts using a survivorship-bias-free database. We detect selectivity and market timing performance of fund managers using two models. First, we use Treynor and Mazuy’s (Harv Bus Rev 44:131–136, 1966) model to determine these performances from a quadratic regression of fund returns on market returns. Second, we use a comprehensive and integrated model derived by Bhattacharya and Pfleiderer (A note on performance evaluation. Technical Report 714, Stanford, California, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, 1983) and Lee and Rahman (J Bus 63:261–278, 1990) to simultaneously capture stock selection and market timing skill of fund managers. This model extracts timing skill from the relationship between managers’ forecast and realized market return. In addition, the R² approach developed by Amihud and Goyenko (Rev Financ Stud 26:667–694, 2013) for evaluating selectivity is also used in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that ethical funds perform no worse than their traditional counterparts, although ethical and traditional funds do not outperform the market. We find some evidence of superior security selection and/or market timing skill among a very small number of ethical and traditional funds. It appears that matching traditional funds have slightly more abnormal (superior as well as inferior) performance than ethical funds in our sample.     

Derivation of the Wishart distribution of the second order sample moments by straightforward integration of a multiple integral

1. Introduction.

In his textbook of statistics Kendall classifies the methods of deducing exact sampling distributions into four groups:

• (a) straightforward evaluation of the integral in question by ordinary analytical processes such as a convenient change of variable;

• (b) the use of geometrical terminology;

• (c) the use of characteristic functions; and

• (d) other analytical methods.

     

The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations

The main objective of this study is to distinguish whether the forecast dispersion anomaly is due to Miller’s (J Finance 32(4):1151–1168, 1977) overpricing hypothesis or idiosyncratic risk, by conditioning the sample on “buy” and “sell” consensus recommendations. Observations on the long and short possibilities provided to the investors by the analyst stock recommendations can help us infer on the impact of short sale constraints even though they are not directly observed. This study provides strong evidence that the impact of analyst forecast dispersion is more pronounced in the group of stocks that receive the least favorable recommendations in a given period, even after controlling for the idiosyncratic risk, Fama–French factors (J Financ Econ 33(1):3–56, 1993; J Financ Econ 116(1):1–22, 2015) and even short-sale constraints. These results are consistent with Miller’s (1977) hypothesis, according to which if short-sale constraints bind, high opinion divergence stocks become overpriced and hence have low subsequent returns.     

Correlation once more

Abstract

§ 1. Correlation Generally.

In my thesis for Doctorship of 1919, ¹ This Journal, 1919, p. 1. I have made some critical remarks on the theory of correlation, trying especially to exhibit the rather unaccomplished state of this theory, and the danger of releasing its formulae for general use. In a supplementary note, ² Ibidem, p. 204. I have pushed my criticism a little further. Since that time, more than ten years have passed away, but I find my point of view still sustainable. One reproach, however, I have never been able to reject, viz, of having been exclusively negative. In fact, I find this position rather natural, from a philosophical standpoint. The information value of correlation calculations is indeed, as a rule, very small. And this seems the more regrettable, as the importance of the Στχαστι?? Τ?χυη, even for the most difficult questions of knowledge, ought to be very great. In a paper of 1924, “Quelques questions concernant les principes de la théorie des probabilités” ³ Ibidem, 1924, p. 107. I have tried to explain, how I imagine the development of the theory of correlation in order to be more apt to set about such philosophical questions.     

Tukey’s transformational ladder for portfolio management

Over the past half-century, the empirical finance community has produced vast literature on the advantages of the equally weighted Standard and Poor (S&P 500) portfolio as well as the often overlooked disadvantages of the market capitalization weighted S&P 500’s portfolio (see Bloomfield et al. in J Financ Econ 5:201–218, 1977; DeMiguel et al. in Rev Financ Stud 22(5):1915–1953, 2009; Jacobs et al. in J Financ Mark 19:62–85, 2014; Treynor in Financ Anal J 61(5):65–69, 2005). However, portfolio allocation based on Tukey’s transformational ladder has, rather surprisingly, remained absent from the literature. In this work, we consider the S&P 500 portfolio over the 1958–2015 time horizon weighted by Tukey’s transformational ladder (Tukey in Exploratory data analysis, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1977): \(1/x^2,\,\, 1/x,\,\, 1/\sqrt{x},\,\, \text {log}(x),\,\, \sqrt{x},\,\, x,\,\, \text {and} \,\, x^2\), where x is defined as the market capitalization weighted S&P 500 portfolio. Accounting for dividends and transaction fees, we find that the 1/\(x^2\) weighting strategy produces cumulative returns that significantly dominate all other portfolio returns, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 18% over the 1958–2015 horizon. Our story is furthered by a startling phenomenon: both the cumulative and annual returns of the \(1/x^2\) weighting strategy are superior to those of the 1 / x weighting strategy, which are in turn superior to those of the \(1/\sqrt{x}\) weighted portfolio, and so forth, ending with the \(x^2\) transformation, whose cumulative returns are the lowest of the seven transformations of Tukey’s transformational ladder. The order of cumulative returns precisely follows that of Tukey’s transformational ladder. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discover this phenomenon.     

First passage time for compound Poisson processes with diffusion: ruin theoretical and financial applications

In this paper, we propose to revisit Kendall’s identity (see, e.g. Kendall (1957)) related to the distribution of the first passage time for spectrally negative Lévy processes. We provide an alternative proof to Kendall’s identity for a given class of spectrally negative Lévy processes, namely compound Poisson processes with diffusion, through the application of Lagrange’s expansion theorem. This alternative proof naturally leads to an extension of this well-known identity by further examining the distribution of the number of jumps before the first passage time. In the process, we generalize some results of Gerber (1990 Gerber, H. U. (1990). When does the surplus reach a given target? Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 9, 115–119.  [Google Scholar]) to the class of compound Poisson processes perturbed by diffusion. We show that this main result is particularly relevant to further our understanding of some problems of interest in actuarial science. Among others, we propose to examine the finite-time ruin probability of a dual Poisson risk model with diffusion or equally the distribution of a busy period in a specific fluid flow model. In a second example, we make use of this result to price barrier options issued on an insurer’s stock price.     

On the central limit theorem

Abstract

If X and Y are mutually independent random variables whith the d. f. ¹ Distribution function(s) F ₁(χ) and F ₂(χ), it is known ² CRAMÉR (1), p. 35. that the sum X + Y has the d. f. F ₂(χ), defined as the convolution where the integrals are Lebesgue-Stiltjes integrals. One uses the abbreviation More generally the sum X ₁ + X ₂ + … + X _n of n mutually independent random variables with the d. f. ¹ Distribution function(s) F ₁(χ), F ₂(χ) , … , F _n has the d. f.      

Change of numeraire in the two-marginals martingale transport problem

In this paper, we apply change of numeraire techniques to the optimal transport approach for computing model-free prices of derivatives in a two-period setting. In particular, we consider the optimal transport plan constructed in Hobson and Klimmek (Finance Stoch. 19:189–214, 2015) as well as the one introduced in Beiglböck and Juillet (Ann. Probab. 44:42–106, 2016) and further studied in Henry-Labordère and Touzi (Finance Stoch. 20:635–668, 2016). We show that in the case of positive martingales, a suitable change of numeraire applied to Hobson and Klimmek (Finance Stoch. 19:189–214, 2015) exchanges forward start straddles of type I and type II, so that the optimal transport plan in the subhedging problems is the same for both types of options. Moreover, for Henry-Labordère and Touzi’s (Finance Stoch. 20:635–668, 2016) construction, the right-monotone transference plan can be viewed as a mirror coupling of its left counterpart under the change of numeraire.     

Functions of measurements under general laws of error

Abstract

The first object of this paper is to extend somewhat a theorem of MISES ¹ (1) Fundamentalsätze der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung, (2) Grundlagen der Wahr. Mathematische Zeitschrift (1919) vol. 4, pp. 1–97; vol. 5, pp. 52–99. , who by the use of the STIELTJES integral ² Bliss, Integrals of Lebesgue, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, vol. 24 (1917), pp. 1–47. Bliss, A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a Stieltjes integral, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences vol 3 (1917), pp. 633–637. HILDEBRANDT, On Integrals related to and Extensions of the Lebesgue Integrals, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, vol. 24 (1917), pp. 113–144; Ibid., pp. 177–202. CARMICHEAL, Conditions necessary and sufficient for the existence of the STIELTJE'S Integral, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 5 (1919), pp. 551–555. treats as a single subject continuous (geometric) and discontinuous (arithmetic) probability. Laplace ³ Oeuvres complete de LAPLACE, 3rd Ed., vol. 7, p. 266. , indeed, used a probability function which was in general continuous but had finite jumps, but he left no systematic treatment of the whole field of probability under such general conditions.     

Book Review

1. Introductory. In the empirical study of demand behaviour, as in other investigations into economic factors and their interrelations, the main statistical tool has been the mean square (m. sq. ¹ Following H. Cramér 1, we adopt this abbreviation for the classical least squares regression method. ) method of regression. ² For a survey, see the standard treatise of H. Schultz 1. It is equally well known, however, that this method has met much criticism. No doubt there are still many questions to discuss in this field.     

Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun

In this paper, we examine changes in the time series properties of three widely used housing market indicators (real house prices, price-to-income ratios, and price-to-rent ratios) for a large set of countries to detect episodes of explosive dynamics. Dating such episodes of exuberance in housing markets provides a timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting housing exuberance to the global 2008 ?09 recession. For our empirical analysis, we employ two recursive univariate unit root tests recently developed by Phillips and Yu (International Economic Review 52(1):201–226, 2011) and Phillips et al. (2015). We also propose a novel extension of the test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to a panel setting in order to exploit the large cross-sectional dimension of our international dataset. Statistically significant periods of exuberance are found in most countries. Moreover, we find strong evidence of the emergence of an unprecedented period of exuberance in the early 2000s that eventually collapsed around 2006 ?07, preceding the 2008 ?09 global recession. We examine whether macro and financial variables help to predict (in-sample) episodes of exuberance in housing markets. Long-term interest rates, credit growth and global economic conditions are found to be among the best predictors. We conclude that global factors (partly) explain the synchronization of exuberance episodes that we detect in the data in the 2000s.