银行贷款增长率持续下降应引起高度警惕

虽然商业银行有着增加贷款的积极性,但他们却发现,企业对贷款的需求意愿减弱了。这无疑向我们传达出了这样的信息,中国的企业家对未来的“悲观情绪”开始滋生,投资意愿正在逐渐减弱。     

行政区划的调整与遗产"原真性"的保护——以遗产(地)所在政区的更名对区域遗产保护的负面影响为例

以遗产(地)所在政区的更名对区域遗产保护的负面影响为例,从具体的行政区划调整与深层的区划制度性的缺失这两个层面来论述行政区划调整对遗产保护的影响和冲击,说明区域的权力核心、权力结构等的存废(表现上即行政区划的调整)对区域特色的形成和维系、也即遗产保护的重要作用。进而认为,行政区划及其形成的政区权力结构,除了具有政治性、经济性的作用而外,还有社会性、文化性的作用;故应尽量稳定,其调整必须控制在一定的限度之内,除了考虑区域经济发展、行政管理便利等因素外,还需考虑地方文化特性维系和遗产保护等方面的影响,且应以当地社区居民的意愿为重要依据。     

陕西省烟叶生产可持续发展的自然资源

通过陕西省烟叶产区温度、光照、降水和土地等自然资源持有状况的介绍,依据优质烤烟生长所需要气候土壤环境条件要求进行了分析评价,并结合烟叶生产现有的种植基础和可持续发展社会经济要求,最后提出了可持续发展的目标规划结果。对陕西省烟叶生产的自然资源合理利用方面具有重要指导意义。     

农地城市流转规模决策模型

在综述前人研究的基础上,对农地城市流转规模的问题进行了理论探讨.在此基础上构建政府多目标条件下农地城市流转规模决策模型,并对其最优规模进行求解.最后就农地作为异质性商品时,利用特征价格模型对决策进行了探讨,研究认为:①农地城市流转决策是一种多目标决策,其效用指标的选取要注重经济因素、社会因素与生态因素的结合;②农地是一种典型的异质性商品,消费者消费农地的效用的高低往往取决于农地包含的特征种类和数量的多少.因此,决策者需要考虑其异质性;③对交错区的农地采取一味地保护,或者采取任由其不断发展的政策都是不利于经济的发展的,政府进行农地城市流转规模决策时,必须采取积极的措施协调城市化发展与区域性粮食安全之间的关系.     

WEARING OUT YOUR WELCOME: EXAMINING DIFFERENTIAL MEDICAID ELIGIBILITY OF NEW ENTRANTS AND CONTINUING RECIPIENTS

Until recently, states were permitted to have different “new entrant” and “continuing recipient” income limits for parental Medicaid eligibility by implementing income disregards that changed with spell length. Some states utilized this option—either tightening income limits for the same family over time or loosening them. In this article, we construct a theoretical model of utility‐maximizing workers facing different time‐dependent eligibility thresholds to predict the Medicaid participation and employment behavior of workers with varying wage levels. The model reveals some inter‐temporally perverse incentives created by linking eligibility thresholds to Medicaid duration. Then, we empirically test these predictions using the Survey of Income and Program Participation and a unique compilation of state‐by‐family size Medicaid thresholds for both new and continuing recipients. We find that patterns of Medicaid participation and spell duration are consistent with the predictions of our model. There is also evidence that the individuals predicted by our model to lower their work hours may supply fewer hours of labor. As of January 2014, the Affordable Care Act disallows time‐varying income disregards; our findings suggest that states previously using this strategy will experience an adjustment in Medicaid caseloads and possibly labor market outcomes because of the change. (JEL H4, I1, J2)     

CEPA框架下“大珠三角”区域经济格局演变的动力模式研究

世界性的区域经济一体化的动力模式一般都是从市场要素动力模式向制度动力模式演变.CEPA的实施,为"大珠三角"区域经济格局的调整提供了制度机遇,为此,文章提出以区域合作制度为导向,以区域创新为核心,从制度、产业、技术和空间等方面构建新的动力模式框架,以促进"大珠三角"动力模式从分散的市场要素动力模式转向制度动力模式.     

人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革

从美国债务上限调整的议案及美国信贷主权评级的下调,可见现行由美元和欧元所组成的二元国际货币体系并不稳定。为测度出人民币的引入能否增加国际货币体系的稳定性,本文先建立面板回归模型分析影响一国货币国际化的基础条件因素,并在模型的基础上,测度出人民币在可自由兑换后将成为一个能与欧元相互抗衡的国际货币。通过方差比较,本文论证了由美元、欧元和人民币三种货币所组成的外汇储备组合较二元体系下的稳定,说明人民币国际化有助于改革现行的二元体系,使国际货币体系发展成为更稳定的三元体系,从而促进全球经济的健康发展。     

声音的脉动

随着时代的进步,除了音响技术日趋成熟外,音响的种类也越发繁杂.按照类型又可以分为一体式音响以及功放、音响分开式的组合音响;根据箱体声学结构又可以分为密闭箱、倒相箱、无源辐射器音箱、传输线音箱.     

THE ACCOUNTS AND THE COMPUTER

(1) The primary contribution from the computer's application to the national accounts may well be to erode the line between micro and macro analysis. Key macro totals in the accounts sum individual company reports. The computer permits us to develop distributions of these reports. Such distributions, regularly presented, would permit discovery of the first forerunners of change, would help distinguish, e.g., widespread strength in an export drive or a profits surge, from participation by a few major concerns that dominate the aggregate.
(2) The strikingly different parameters in cross section and time series studies (e.g., price elasticity of housing) will in some measure reflect incomparability between the micro data that enter into each. The computer makes possible the use of the wide array of micro data that really underly the accounts to develop consistent analyses of time series (of both aggregates and distributions) and cross section analyses.
(3) The inconsistencies now imbedded in the accounts but gilded over by the abilities of the estimators are well-known. Discussions of wage price policy rest on data for wages that have no necessary compatibility with data on profits, etc. But since 1,500 corporations account for at least half of U.S. net income, sales, and investment, the computer can test the consistency of reports made by different units in these firms to different agencies—a process totally out of the question before the computer.
(4) The potential that the computer offers for prompt revisions in the accounts; for revisions by systematic rule; for tests of sensitivity of the entire set of accounts to particular tailor-made adjustments, is clear.
(5) Company purchase orders and accounts are increasingly recorded on cards or tapes. From these we may derive input-output detail and process detail that are light years better than those now feasible from intermittent survey aggregates.     

THE ECONOMICS AND THE NONECONOMICS OF THE WORLD WAR INDUSTRY

The world war industry is defined as the part of human income-earning activity devoted to producing, maintaining, and sometimes utilizing means of destruction. Most of the industry consists of what is purchased with national states' military budgets, which are spent by unilateral national defense organizations. These organizations are basically noneconomical, in the sense that they do not have a balance sheet, do not show a "bottom line" or net worth, and therefore there is no way to estimate their profitability. They have economic aspects in terms of decisions that balance marginal benefits against marginal costs. The benefits, however, are mainly psychological in the minds of the decision makers. Wars of conquest, especially those resulting in empires, have not paid off very well for the conquering power. Military defeat often leads to cultural and economic development. Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles have made national defense essentially obsolete and the greatest enemy of national security. Military leaders may respond to this development as they recognize their traditional culture of courage, heroism, and fighting has been replaced by child roasting and perhaps universal destruction. There seem to be few economies of scale in the national state, and perhaps we should look forward to a world of 500 national states in stable peace with a very limited, functional world government.     

基于SSM的主导产业选择基准——以南京市为例

在梳理了传统主导产业选择基准理论与偏离-份额分析方法基本原理的基础上,引入了一个主导产业选择基准:偏离份额基准.运用此基准,通过选取南京市1999年和2005年两个时间点的29个制造业产业部门为分析对象,以国家范围内的29个制造业产业部门的情况为参照,对南京市29个制造业产业部门进行份额偏离分量、结构偏离分量和竞争力偏离分量的综合比较分析,筛选出了最有可能成为主导产业的3个产业部门.对结果分析表明此选择基准在主导产业选择中具有基本客观的有效性.     

试论我国农地发展权定位及农民分享实现

经营性征地给社会经济发展带来许多不稳定因素,其中一个极为重要的原因是由于长期以来强大的行政权力取代了土地发展权的权效。从这一角度出发,文章首先介绍了发展权的含义和特征并总结了我国农地发展权的现状,在此基础上针对农地市地化过程中的土地发展权进行了定位,提出将发展权分享引入征地补偿机制即农民参与发展权权益的分享,紧接着探讨了发展权分享实现问题,并对农民发展权分享进行了量化。旨在通过对发展权的适当安排缓解现行征地体制中的一些矛盾,从而在深层次上促进我国土地产权制度的健全和土地的合理利用。     

THE TRANSMISSION OF THE MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA: THE ROLE OF THE BANKS’ BUSINESS MODEL

This paper sheds some new light on the incidence of the banks’ business model as a component of the bank lending channel in the euro area. Differently from existing literature, the analysis is led on the basis of the two main macroeconomic regions that today characterize the euro area: its north‐east (German‐centric) and south‐west halves. The observation period is 2008–2013, mainly featured by the financial and economic crisis. The empirical findings evidence that in the north‐east half of the euro area the cooperative banks leveraged the effects of the reduction in the interest rates in terms of new lending. In this respect, they differentiated from commercial and savings banks, which showed a more neutral impact on the transmission of the monetary policy decisions. These results highlight the distinctive role of the cooperative banks in terms of credit provision in Germany and in the whole north‐east half of the euro area. Nevertheless, this cooperative banking effect did not emerge for the south‐west half of the continent, particularly hit by the crisis. This may suggest that the bank's business model tend to be neutral to the transmission of the monetary policy in economies characterized by prolonged recessions.     

土地征用中存在的主要问题

伴随着城市建设和经济发展,土地市场开发和土地征用日渐频繁。实践中,我国对征用土地的大部分使用都是为了商业目的,而且在征用过程中存在许多有待思考和解决的问题。因此,正确处理经济发展与土地保护的关系,加强对征用土地的监督管理尤为必要。文章通过对土地征用中一些主要问题的归纳和分析,期望完善立法以进一步维护农民的利益,真正实行最严格的土地管理制度,保护和利用好每一寸土地。