Skillful hiding: evaluating hedge fund managers’ performance based on what they hide

Mandatory disclosure of hedge fund portfolios has been a hotly debated topic. This article studies asset returns of ‘confidential holdings’ (confidentiality treatment [CT]) or those assets that were not voluntarily disclosed by US-based hedge funds in their original 13F filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission. After analysing returns from 1999 to 2013, we find that in aggregate, the CT position size, ownership share and returns are statistically different to non-CT positions. We provide a mechanism for regulators and investors to rank fund managers based on what they hide in positions.     

Modeling hedge fund exposure to risk factors

This paper examines the adjustment dynamics of hedge fund returns and studies their exposure to risk factors in a nonlinear framework for several types of strategies over the last two decades. Nonlinearity is justified by distortions due to the use of short selling, leverage, derivatives and illiquid assets for hedge fund strategies. Among nonlinear models, switching regime (STR) models are applied to reproduce the dynamics of hedge fund returns. This nonlinear multivariate modeling has the advantage of capturing the time-varying exposure of hedge fund strategies to risk factors, and of specifying the asymmetric relationship between hedge fund returns and risk. The findings are interesting and provide several contributions to the hedge fund literature. First, we show that the dynamics of hedge fund returns exhibit significant asymmetry and nonlinearity, indicating that they evolve and vary asymmetrically in accordance with stages in financial cycles. Second, hedge fund exposure to risk factors also varies over time, depending on the strategy and the regime. Finally, our modeling captures the most important changes in hedge fund exposure to risk factors induced by the recent global financial crisis (2008–2009).     

Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle

We investigate how macroeconomic and financial uncertainty impacts the behavior of hedge fund strategy higher moments—i.e., co-skewness and co-kurtosis—and their respective cross-sectional dispersions. Consistent with theoretical models, we find that strategy managers trade off these two higher moments when building optimal portfolios. Moreover, these trade-offs depend on the kind of strategy. Our experiments show that the VIX and its conditional variance are the most important factors affecting higher moment risk in the hedge fund industry. They also reveal that the behavior of hedge fund strategies is very asymmetric depending on the phase of the business cycle. In contrast to studies which rely on the mean-variance setting, we find that systemic risk—as measured by the cross-sectional dispersions of higher moments—tends to decrease in the low regime. The indicators of market volatility play a decisive role to explain this decline in systemic risk.     

Cumulant instrument estimators for hedge fund return models with errors in variables

We revisit the factors incorporated in asset pricing models following the recent developments in financial markets – i.e., the rise of shadow banking and the change in the transmission channel of monetary policy. We propose two versions of the Fung and Hsieh (2004) hedge fund return model, especially an augmented market model which accounts for the new dynamics of financial markets and the procyclicality of hedge fund returns. We run these models with an innovative Hausman procedure, tackling the measurement errors embedded in the models factor loadings. Our empirical method also allows for confronting the drawbacks of the instruments used to estimate hedge fund asset pricing models.     

What drives the high moments of hedge fund returns?

We study the high-moment distribution of hedge fund returns and identify factors that drive high-moment risk. Using hedge fund monthly returns, we find a strong correlation between the first four moments of returns (i.e. mean, standard deviation (SD), skewness, and kurtosis) and different characteristics of the funds such as leverage, liquidity, incentives, and strategy-related factors. We find that after controlling for other factors, incentives-related factors and a hedge fund’s specific strategy have the greatest impact on the distribution of fund returns. Our evidence also suggests investors allocate across hedge fund characteristics while placing greater emphasis on fund strategies and incentive factors.     

Attribution of hedge fund returns using a Kalman filter

Hedge funds offer attractive investment possibilities because they engage in investment styles and opportunity sets which – because they are different from traditional asset class funds – generate different risk exposures. Conventional wisdom holds that hedge funds add value and provide unique investment opportunities because of their ability to invest in disparate risk exposures, and via the manager’s skill in selecting stocks and timing the market. In this article, a Kalman filter is used to decompose the time series of hedge fund returns into market timing and stock selection factors to establish whether fund managers really do generate statistically significant abnormal profits. Compelling evidence supports an alternative interpretation for the market timing return constituent. This work represents the first time the Kalman filter has been used to extract a time series of the capital asset pricing model’s dynamic variables for determining return component magnitudes.     

Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models

In this article, we study the time-varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds. We use data from the Hedge Fund Research? Equity Market Neutral Index (HFRX EH), which represents the performance of a portfolio of individual equity market neutral hedge funds. For each day, we measure different levels of association of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&;P 500) index and the HFRX EH. We use non-linear dynamic conditional score models of location, scale and copula that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been applied in the body of literature on hedge funds. We study whether the neutrality of the HFRX EH that is evidenced in the body of literature for the period of April 1993–April 2003 also holds for the following decade, for the period of May 2003–December 2016. We estimate different average levels of association for the pre-, during- and post-periods of the US financial crisis of 2008. We find that the association of the S&;P 500 and the HFRX EH, on average, is significantly positive for the pre- and post-periods of the financial crisis, and it is significantly negative for the period during the financial crisis.     

Comparative Capitalisms,Ideational Political Economy and French Post-Dirigiste Responses to the Global Financial Crisis

This article advances the case for the more systematic incorporation of ideational factors into comparative capitalisms analysis as a corrective to the rational choice proclivities of the Varieties of Capitalism approach. It demonstrates the pay-off of such an ideationally attuned approach through analysis of French capitalist restructuring over the last 25 years, placing it in comparative context. A modus operandi for such ideational explanation is elaborated through delineating different national conceptions of the market, and setting out their impacts on practices of market-making. The claim made in this article is that understanding the evolution of French capitalism requires recognition of the ongoing market-making role of the French State, in combination with the French conception of the market and its embedding within a social context characterised by the inter-penetration of public and private elitist networks of France's ‘financial network economy’ which remains substantially intact. The ideational dimension is crucial because French understandings of the market and competition, the ideational building blocks of market-making, inform French state interventions and leave footprints on French institutions and market structures, and the evolutionary trajectory of French capitalism. In charting this trajectory, this article deploys the concept of post-dirigisme. We map out the parameters and causes of the post-dirigiste condition in France through examination of French bond market development, privatisation, the shift from a government- to a market- dominated financial system, and French capitalism's internationalisation. It then uses post-dirigisme to explain French state responses to the financial crisis and the banking bailout, noting how state actors, in concert with the banking elites, actively facilitated dominant market positions of French international champions.     

Balancing market liquidity: Bank Structural Reform caught between growth and stability

Abstract

The European Commission’s proposal for a Bank Structural Reform (BSR) aimed at increasing banks’ resolvability through separating risky trading activities from deposit-taking institutions. In contrast to initial plans, the final proposal exempted market-making activities of banks. This exemption, we argue, was brought about by the Commission’s discursive framing of the BSR as a balancing act between stability and growth. Coupled with the incapacity to unambiguously measure the effects of the reform on market liquidity and on growth, this pushed the assessment of market-making from the technical to the political realm, leading to a reproduction of the prevalent market-based banking system.     

The macroeconomic drivers in hedge fund beta management

We investigate how macroeconomic indicators alter the dynamic risk exposure of different hedge fund style strategies. We implement a multifactor model to estimate the unobservable time-varying risk exposure conditional on macroeconomic information and a VAR to measure the impact of macroeconomic predictors on different time horizons. Using monthly returns on a cross-section of 10 different style indices from February 1997 to August 2019, we find that, on average, macroeconomic indicators explain approximately 30%, 55%, and 75% of the variability of betas at 1-, 6-, and 36-month horizons, respectively. Although macroeconomic predictors play a critical role at every horizon, at 1 month, the dominating effect comes from idiosyncratic shocks, which indicates that in the short run, hedge fund managers rely mostly on their own reallocation signals. Moreover, consistent with the fundamental drivers of the smart beta factors, we find that the interest rate level and GDP growth similarly impact hedge fund exposures across styles.     

Money and the ‘Level Playing Field’: The Epistemic Problem of European Financial Market Integration

ABSTRACT

Financial market integration processes in the European Union (EU) are characterised by an epistemic problem of economic theory. This problem encompasses what ‘the market’ is, how it is to be ‘integrated’, and the nature and role of ‘money’ as infrastructure of the fully integrated market. The EU’s legal framework has imported this epistemic problem along with the competitive conception of the market as described in economic theory – as a ‘level playing field’ for private exchange, under free, fair and ideally unrestrained competition. It manifests itself in European financial market integration processes, as exemplified in the article, via two otherwise disconnected areas of European Central Bank (ECB) activity: (a) the provision of central bank credit for the purpose of financial transaction settlement in the Eurozone; and (b) the conduct of ordinary monetary policy in the Eurozone. While the problem can be stabilised through legal, technical and other means, it remains latent, and may manifest itself again in unexpected ways, as happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, contrary to ideologies that are widely understood as more or less coherent systems of doctrines, epistemic problems are characterised by specific tensions, contradictions and conceptual uncertainties.     

Globalisation and the Institutional Re-embedding of Markets: The Political Economy of Price Formation in the Bordeaux En Primeur Market

Contemporary analyses commonly attribute the global credit crisis to faulty regulation. What have been the roots of these deficient rules, particularly in Europe, where rapid spill-over from US markets took policy makers and observers by surprise? This article focuses on regulatory liberalism as the paradigm guiding European Union (EU) regulation. It has dominated regulatory thinking for decades, but it has been implemented throughout Europe only since the mid-1990s. This shift can be traced to political institutions that have filtered policy ideas. EU financial reforms have pushed policy from pragmatism, under which it was adapted to political contingencies, to dogmatism, which adapts it to the intellectual exigencies of rigid policy paradigms. Inadvertently, reforms had created an epistemic community in which ‘professional’ rule setters systematically ignored external criticisms. The institutionalised ambition to craft ‘intellectually sound’ policy–rather than policy that simply ‘works’ –generated rules that persistently ignored the financial markets' self-reflexivity and thereby aggravated the crisis.     

Hedge fund activism and corporate innovation

This paper investigates the impact of hedge fund activism on corporate innovating activities. It finds that innovative firms are as likely to be targeted by activist hedge funds as non-innovative firms. Activist hedge funds tend to target innovative firms with low innovation efficiency. Hedge fund interventions are associated with significant improvements in innovation output in both highly competitive and less competitive industries. The improvement is more pronounced in active intervention events. Our results suggest that activist hedge funds are not myopic investors and their interventions enhance innovative activities that benefit innovative firms’ long-term performance.     

Fiscal policy and capital mobility: the construction of economic policy rectitude in Britain and France

This research examines the regulatory response of the European Union to the global financial crisis, addressing the questions of whether, how and why the global financial crisis has changed the ‘old’ politics of financial services regulation in the EU and resulted in the emergence of a ‘new’ politics. It is argued that, with a good dose of political opportunism and ‘anti-free market’ rhetoric, a continental advocacy coalition sponsoring a ‘market-shaping’ regulatory approach has capitalised on the crisis, tipping the balance of regulatory power in the EU in its favour, as compared to the pre-crisis situation.     

‘Socialization of Investment’ and ‘Euthanasia of the Rentier’: the Relevance of Keynesian policy ideas for the contemporary US Economy

This paper builds from two explicit policy ideas that Keynes introduced in the General Theory, a ‘somewhat comprehensive socialization of investment’, and ‘the euthanasia of the rentier’. The paper argues that, to a significant degree, the stagnation of the contemporary US economy can be attributed to the nature of its capital-market based, or ‘exit led’ financial system, which promotes short-termism, speculation and financial fragility, as well as excessive political power for the rentier class. In combination, these factors also diminish governments' capacity to successfully implement policies that promote egalitarian growth and full employment. In making these points, I contrast the US financial system with the bank-based or ‘voice led’ systems, such as those in Japan, France or South Korea. The paper then sketches a series of policy proposals which would address these problems. These proposals include regulatory policies which would ‘level the playing field upward’ among all financial intermediaries, and credit allocation policies that give preference to projects with high social rates of return. The proposals also aim to substantially increase the degree of democratic accountability within the financial system.     

日本对冲基金发展状况及监管经验对我国的借鉴

日本在2000年通过立法允许对冲基金在日本正式开展业务.在五年的时间里,日本市场上的对冲基金规模迅速膨胀;除了部分富裕阶层之外,大量的养老金、保险公司也都成为对冲基金的投资者.目前日本对于对冲基金的立法尚属空白.为了保护投资者,特别是养老金的利益,监管当局正在建立对冲基金的监管机制.日本在对冲基金的法律定位、监管原则和监管模式方面的选择,可以为中国未来的对冲基金监管机制设计提供借鉴.     

The Role of Hedge Funds in International Financial Markets

This paper analyses the risk and return characteristics of a wide universe of hedge funds in the period 1990–2000. Most major categories of hedge funds are found to have outperformed (often by a considerable margin) the performance of traditional asset classes. The potential impact of hedge fund trading on market spreads and volatilities is examined especially in the period 1998, so as to provide some guidelines in terms of regulation of such funds. It is shown, however, that despite hedge fund difficulties in that period, the inclusion of hedge funds in investor portfolios definitely moves the efficiency frontier outwards, and allows significantly higher levels of returns for given levels of risk. This is primarily because of the low level of correlation of certain hedge fund styles, especially arbitrage strategies, with other hedge fund styles and with traditional assets.
(J.E.L.: G10, G11, G14, G23).     

农村资金互助社发展现状及对策研究

农村资金互助社作为一种为入股社员服务的新型农村金融机构,真正体现了合作金融的精神。目前我国正规农村资金互助社数量少,大多数农村资金互助社以准正规和非正规金融的形式存在,发展中存在缺乏法律保护和规范、融资渠道不畅、监管过严与缺失并存等问题。根据农村资金互助社发展现状及存在的问题提出相应的对策建议。     

The interbank market during a crisis

The autumn of 1998 provides a setting in which to test the performance of the interbank market during a potential financial crisis. This period witnessed Russia's effective default on its sovereign bonds and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Despite these negative shocks to bank capital and increased uncertainty in financial markets, the federal funds market still effectively channeled liquidity to those institutions in need at rates consistent with Federal Reserve intentions. Further, risk premiums on overnight lending were largely unaffected and lending volumes increased, suggesting that the federal funds market performed well during this period.     

The propensity to hedge using futures contracts: the case of potato futures contracts

This paper studies why UK non-financial firms hedge with potato futures contracts. It is found that the financial characteristics of firms in the sample play an important role in influencing the propensity to hedge. For example, it is found that firms that hedge are on average larger than firms that do not hedge. Firms that hedge also have more volatile earnings. Furthermore, firms that do hedge appear to want to smooth earnings to reduce the costs of financial distress and avoid entering the highest tax threshold.