试论现代生产力的新规定

现代生产力社会化是物质生产力、科技生产力、教育生产力三者社会化形成的社会化体系。现代生产力的规定再不能只停留在物质生产力的规定上,而应当概括物质生产力、科技生产力、教育生产力的本质特性。现代生产力应规定为：人综合发现、创造、内化自然与人的关系以使人更好地生存发展的力量。     

我国相机财政政策的波动性研究

本文通过对我国财政政策运行轨迹的历史考察,认为我国的相机财政政策不管是收入政策还是支出政策抑或是综合预算政策,都表现出明显的周期波动特征,且各项政策周期内波动幅度都不是很大,除了极个别的年份外,基本上保持在2个百分点以内.就收支政策的波动来看,两者的波动保持了较高的相似性.1995年前,两者都位于均衡水平之下运行,1995年后,两者又都位于均衡水平之上运行.但就稳定职能来说,财政支出政策明显地要好于财政收入政策,综合预算政策基本上与稳定职能保持一致.     

Technological Progress: A Proposed Measure

The article suggests a direct measure of technological progress that can be quantified with reasonable confidence on the basis of historical data. The proposed measure is the efficiency with which resources (mainly energy sources) are converted into final services. It decomposes into two components, namely the thermodynamic efficiency of converting an energy source into mechanical work and the efficiency with which mechanical work is used to produce final services. The first part of this can be estimated, by sector, with fair accuracy. The second part can only be estimated with reasonable accuracy in a few cases (such as transportation and illumination), but the results are sufficient to permit some plausible extrapolation. The proposed measure is hopefully of interest in itself. But perhaps it is more important insofar as it suggests a way to construct an economic production function that explicitly reflects technological change, rather than treating “technical progress” as an unexplained residual.     

Freedom, opportunity and uncertainty: A logical approach

The paper explores the possibility of analyzing opportunities within a logical framework. We make clear how a person's freedom in different choice situations yield opportunity rankings by showing how such rankings are completely determined by subjacent logical chains. We explore one interpretation of such chains in particular, and show that it leads to results similar to those obtained earlier by Nehring and Puppe. Furthermore, for contexts in which not all of the consequences of one's acts are known, we present an alternative characterization of the leximin-ranking.     

Visualising Time: A Compendium of Time Series Plots

Graphs are important for highlighting relationships within a data series or across several series. Modern computer software has provided flexibility in the construction of graphic displays that would have been impossible with the tools that were available to researchers only a few decades ago. This article illustrates a variety of different graphical presentations for time ordered or time series data that can now be constructed. These include time series plots, bar charts, range plots, radar charts, scatter plots, heat maps and seasonality plots. For each graph type presented, we discuss the best practice for their construction.     

Constitutional Foundations of Economic Freedom: A Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis

Using time-series cross-section analysis, we provide additional empirical validation for the principal-agent model developed by Adserà et al. (2003). In our innovation, efficient economic policy is proxied by “economic freedom” from the Fraser Institute database and constitutional “political institutions” are proxied by variables from the Database of Political Institutions. Our results suggest that the more credible the threat of removal from office, the more government officials will pursue efficient economic policies. The authors are grateful to Alan Hamlin and an anonymous referee for their highly valuable input to the development of this paper. Tel.: +1-604-291-4167     

收入分配与异质性消费结构——基于中等收入群体新测度

本文通过构建效用指数模型对中等收入群体进行测度,并据此将城镇家庭划分为低、中、高收入组,通过分析三类家庭储蓄消费动机,得出三类家庭消费结构异质性推论,以中国家庭金融调查数据库CHFS2013-2017年城镇家庭数据为基础,实证检验三类家庭消费结构差异,最后模拟收入分配变动对消费结构的影响.研究发现:(1)低收入家庭生存型和发展型消费倾向更高,生存型边际消费倾向平均约为中等收入家庭的1.8倍、高收入家庭的8.1倍,发展型边际消费倾向平均约为中等收入家庭的1.6倍、高收入家庭的3.1倍,其收入主要用于满足生存和发展所需;(2)中等收入家庭更注重享受型消费,享受型边际消费倾向平均约为低收入家庭的1.5倍、高收入家庭的4.5倍,其有能力追求更高层次的消费;(3)高收入家庭消费需求基本得到满足,各类消费倾向均较低;(4)模拟收入分配变动结果显示,"提低、扩中"均对消费结构升级具有显著促进作用,应充分考虑收入分配调节对消费结构的影响,重视中等收入群体规模扩大对消费结构升级的带动作用.     

Industry Wages Across Countries and Over Time: A New Database of Micro Survey Data

This paper presents a newly collected database on industry wages. The underlying data are micro datasets collected through nationally representative household surveys which are mostly conducted by national statistical agencies. In comparison with wage measures based on macroeconomic data sources, we find that industry wages based on micro survey data are more reliable. Furthermore, data from nationally representative micro surveys are becoming increasingly available, thus allowing for better coverage, especially of low‐income countries. The database provides a reliable source of data for research on inter‐industry wage structures and gender wage differentials, across countries and over time. It may also serve as a basis for further research on the determinants and implications of inter‐industry and gender wage variations.     

应计利润分离模型的效力检验——基于中国资本市场的实证研究

应计利润分离法是盈余管理研究中常用的方法,本文使用2006年新准则颁布后的中国资本市场数据,对研究中常用的四种应计利润分离模型进行了效力检验。这四种模型分别是基本Jones模型、修正Jones模型、业绩匹配Jones模型和非线性Jones模型。研究发现:无论是综合样本估计还是分行业样本估计,四种模型的拟合性都较好,但业绩匹配Jones模型和非线性Jones模型的表现更为突出;分年度、分行业样本估计的效果要优于综合样本估计;操控性应计利润的盈余持续性检验结果说明四种被检验模型都能有效地揭示盈余管理;二项检验结果显示,基本Jones模型、业绩匹配Jones模型和非线性Jones模型犯第一类错误的频率较高,容易夸大盈余管理。综合比较而言,在中国资本市场上,修正Jones模型设定较优。     

Risk Aversion and the Investment Horizon: A New Perspective on the Time Diversification Debate

Investment managers generally subscribe to the principle of time diversification. This implies that a larger portion of the portfolio should be devoted to risky assets as the investment horizon increases. In contrast, academics have shown that for investors with utility functions characterized by constant relative risk aversion, the optimal asset-allocation strategy is independent of the investment horizon. The relative risk aversion in these studies is assumed to be constant both with respect to wealth as well as investment horizon. We suggest a utility function that explicitly captures the notion that individuals are more risk tolerant when the investment horizon is long, thereby validating the intuitively appealing time diversification argument.     

外汇储备适度规模测度理论述评及新进展

外汇储备最优规模的确定是一国外汇储备管理的前提和基础,在当前我国持有巨额外汇储备和面临"双缩水"风险的背景下,如何科学合理地测度我国的外汇储备适度规模,对加强外汇储备的管理并使其保值增值有着重要的意义.本文以外汇储备测度理论的发展为视角,在对各种外汇储备适度规模测度理论进行分析和评价的基础上,介绍和梳理了近年来国内外相关研究的最新进展,以期为我国探寻外汇储备最优规模测度理论提供新的思路.     

对企业绩效评价新工具EVA的解析

为了解析EVA指标的丰富内涵，本文分析了它的逻辑推理过程，提出了调整原则，归纳出分项指标间的数学关系，并对EVA评价工具的正负效应作了探析，以便为我国企业全面推行EVA评价工具提供借鉴。     

A Computationally Convenient Diversity Measure: Theory and Application

This paper introduces a computationally convenient measure of structural diversity based on absolute deviations between relative shares of individual groups forming a community. A conceptual framework is developed, some theoretical properties of the measure are derived, and its close relation to the Shannon index, a widely used diversity measure, is explored. The paper also presents an empirical application involving this measure where optimum harvesting strategies are determined under diversity constraints, and investigates the trade off between economic and environmental objectives for a mixed forest in Indonesia.     

操控性应计转回周期的模型研究

研究发现管理层的机会主义行为不仅受到操控性应计累积总量的约束,同时还受到转回速度的约束.因此作者建立了操控性应计累积总量转回的模型,并用操控性应计的自相关系数估计了操控性应计的转回周期.通过选取近10年深市和沪市全部A股样本,研究发现我国操控性应计转回的平均周期为4年,操控性应计在转回周期中对净资产收益率存在制约作用,与预期一致.研究结论对我国盈余管理研究,分析师预测具有重要意义.     

主体功能区划下的新型生态补偿措施:工业排放配额制

国家"十一五"规划中主体功能区划的提出,从开发保护的角度看,国土被划为开发类和保护类功能区,由于各自主体功能不同引发公平问题:保护类功能区为保证生态质量放弃大量工业发展机会,开发类功能区却同享经济发展成果与优质生态服务,应建立生态补偿机制。在借鉴以往生态补偿机制及总结国外生态补偿经验的基础上,较认同生态补偿的一种系统性且市场化程度更高的创新型方案—"工业排放配额制":通过企业间、区域间甚至国家间工业排放配额的公平分配及在市场上的自由交易,让那些为保护生态而放弃发展机会的低环境承载力区域得到补偿。     

Economic Freedom and Economic Performance in Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis

This paper performs panel regressions of output per worker, capital intensity, human capital, and total factor productivity in Latin America on measures of economic freedom in five policy areas. Results show that a smaller government raises output per worker in Latin America but not in the OECD. Stronger property rights and a tighter monetary policy also raise output per worker, but greater freedom to trade internationally does not, despite doing so in the OECD. Deregulation lowers output per worker in both Latin America and the OECD. Finally, a tighter monetary policy raises total factor productivity (TFP) but reduces capital intensity in Latin America, while deregulation raises capital intensity but lowers TFP in both sets of countries.     

A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration

This paper studies the degree of integration of China's domestic market and investigates the determinants of inter‐provincial trade barriers under the rubric endogenous trade policy theory. I rely on industry‐level trade flows extracted from provincial input–output tables to develop a model that analyzes the magnitude and evolution of Chinese provinces’ engagement in domestic trade by computing all‐inclusive indicators of trade barriers. Results underline that over the 1990s, not only was China's domestic market fragmentation along provincial borders great, but it also has become more severe at least between 1992 and 1997. The investigation of province‐level and industry‐level trade barriers confirms the relevance of applying the framework of endogenous protection to explain the level of impediments to trade between Chinese provinces. Findings emphasize that provinces’ domestic trade protection pursues a dual objective of socio‐economic stability preservation and fiscal revenues maximization.     

新型工业化进程统计测度及实证分析

党的十六大报告提出我国走新型工业化道路.然而历经多年的工业化实践,时至今日我国新型工业化进程到底处于何种程度?这个问题是新型工业化进程中一个基础性问题,测度新型工业化进程是新型工业化问题研究中的一项重要课题.由于传统工业化与新型工业化具有不同的内涵,因而传统工业化测度不能全面测度新型工业化进程.本文紧扣新型工业化内涵,构建新型工业化进程统计测度指标体系,并利用这套指标体系来实证测度我国新型工业化进程,最后指出我国新型工业化进程的特点.